ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) Pushes Permian Expansion; Near-Term Technical Rebound Probable

ONEOK accelerated Permian processing capacity and completed a large notes offering in August, leaving fundamentals that support a fair-value view while technicals suggest a possible near-term bounce that must clear key moving averages for continuation.

Recent News

On August 6, 2025 ONEOK priced a $3.0 billion senior notes offering consisting of $750 million (7-year, 4.95%), $1.0 billion (10-year, 5.40%) and $1.25 billion (30-year, 6.25%), with net proceeds earmarked to repay commercial paper and notes due Sept. 15, 2025. In early August 2025 the company made a final investment decision to build the Bighorn natural gas processing plant in the Delaware Basin, a $365 million project with 300 MMcf/d capacity expected in service by mid-2027.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 21.8 indicates an emerging trend strength that permits near-term directional moves rather than a fully established trend; that emerging strength aligns with recent directional changes in the +DI and -DI lines.

DI+ shows a dip & reversal while DI- shows a peak & reversal—both developments constitute bullish directional flips that support the introduction’s near-term rebound view.

MACD sits negative at -1.16 with a dip & reversal, signaling bullish momentum building; MACD remains marginally below its signal line (-1.12), so a confirmed bullish MACD cross has not yet occurred.

MRO at -26.71 signals the price sits below the model target and therefore carries potential to increase; the negative MRO complements the MACD dip & reversal for a short-term recovery bias.

RSI at 39.55 with a peak & reversal indicates recent downward momentum that has begun to ease; price must reclaim short-term averages to convert this relief into sustained upside.

Price closed at $68.61, below the 20-day average ($69.57), 50-day average ($72.34) and 200-day average ($83.08). The 12-day EMA trend sits decreasing, and the super-trend upper band ($71.02) and Ichimoku components (Tenkan $69.91, Kijun $70.91, Senkou A $73.67, Senkou B $76.75) sit above the market price, creating defined resistance levels for any rally.

Bollinger bands place the one-standard-deviation lower band at $67.88 and the one-standard-deviation upper at $71.27; current price near the lower band makes a technical mean-reversion bounce plausible, but volume runs below recent averages, so move conviction requires higher participation.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $7,887,000,000 with revenue growth at -1.94% and year-over-year revenue growth reported as -182.06% (YoY); operating income $1,453,000,000 and EBIT $1,551,000,000. EBITDA registered $1,919,000,000, and operating margin measured 18.423% (operating margin QoQ +11.411%, YoY -31.746%).

EBIT margin stands at 19.665%, improving QoQ by +18.922% but down YoY by -27.145%; that EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean of 29.76% and below the industry peer median of 29.048%, yet remains well above the industry peer low of 1.289%.

Net income reached $841,000,000 while EPS came in at $1.34 versus an estimate of $1.33, producing an EPS surprise of approximately +0.75%.

Free cash flow totaled $776,000,000 with a free cash flow yield of 1.572%, marginally below the industry peer mean of 1.67%; operating cash flow reached $1,525,000,000 and cash flow to earnings sits at 171.106%, indicating cash conversion above reported earnings on a historical basis.

Balance sheet and leverage: total debt $32,467,000,000, net debt $32,370,000,000, debt-to-EBITDA ~16.92x, and interest coverage 3.54x (slightly below the industry peer mean of 3.82x). Debt-to-assets at 50.318% tracks near the industry peer mean of 50.666%.

Return metrics remained modest: return on equity 3.852%, return on assets 1.306%, and return on invested capital 2.189%. Dividend metrics show a dividend yield of 1.304% with a dividend payout ratio ~76.58% and dividend coverage ratio ~1.306x.

Valuation context: price-to-earnings stands at 61.80 while the industry peer mean P/E reads 76.57 and the industry peer median P/E 57.46; the enterprise multiple registers ~42.60 versus an industry peer mean of 45.49. WMDST values the stock as fair-valued given current multiples, cash flow generation and the company’s capital plan including the recent notes issuance designated to cover near-term maturities.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-04
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 141.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 1.5 B
 Capital Expenditures -749.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 55.0 M
 Dividends Paid -644.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta -44.00 M
 End Period Cash Flow 97.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 7.9 B
 Forward Revenue 2.2 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 5.7 B
 Depreciation 368.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 368.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 6.4 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 2.2 B
 EBITDA 1.9 B
 EBIT 1.6 B
 Operating Income 1.5 B
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 438.0 M
 Net Interest Income -438.00 M
 Income Before Tax 1.1 B
 Tax Provision 260.0 M
 Tax Rate 23.36 %
 Net Income 841.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 853.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.33
 EPS Actual 1.34
 EPS Difference 0.01
 EPS Surprise 0.752 %
 Forward EPS 1.49
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 64.5 B
 Intangible Assets 11.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets 10.8 B
 Total Current Assets 3.9 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 97.0 M
 Cash 97.0 M
 Net Receivables 2.5 B
 Inventory 858.0 M
 Long-Term Investments 401.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 2.5 B
 Short-Term Debt 2.8 B
 Total Current Liabilities 6.6 B
 Net Debt 32.4 B
 Total Debt 32.5 B
 Total Liabilities 42.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 21.8 B
 Retained Earnings 1.8 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 34.66
 Shares Outstanding 629.749 M
 Revenue Per-Share 12.52
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 49.4 B
 Enterprise Value 81.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple 42.598
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -18.835 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 42.518 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 57.658
mean: 45.491
median: 44.572
OKE: 42.598
low: 7.055
 EV/R 10.365
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.956
 Asset To Liability 1.514
 Debt To Capital 0.598
 Debt To Assets 0.503
Debt To Assets QoQ 0.923 %
Debt To Assets YoY 1361.034 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.875
mean: 0.507
OKE: 0.503
median: 0.493
low: 0.045
 Debt To Equity 1.487
Debt To Equity QoQ -0.83 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1519.943 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 4.919
median: 1.571
mean: 1.492
OKE: 1.487
low: -2.559
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.262
Price To Book QoQ -16.467 %
Price To Book YoY -17.515 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 5.728
mean: 2.947
median: 2.326
OKE: 2.262
low: -1.71
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 61.799
Price To Earnings QoQ -30.6 %
Price To Earnings YoY 4.777 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 130.319
mean: 76.57
OKE: 61.799
median: 57.459
low: 11.891
 PE/G Ratio 2.142
 Price To Sales (P/S) 6.26
Price To Sales QoQ -12.957 %
Price To Sales YoY -33.13 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 33.78
median: 14.913
mean: 13.733
OKE: 6.26
low: 0.375
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 56.592
Forward PE/G 1.962
Forward P/S 22.406
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -8.567
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.122
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.29 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 11.275 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.153
OKE: 0.122
mean: 0.095
median: 0.073
low: 0.031
 Receivables Turnover 3.072
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -4.957 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -4.938 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 8.107
OKE: 3.072
mean: 2.445
median: 2.07
low: 0.998
 Inventory Turnover 6.498
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -11.009 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 82.904 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 14.263
OKE: 6.498
mean: 4.838
median: 3.709
low: 1.678
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 29.705
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 6.065
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 2582.12 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -57.006 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 104.564
median: 20.755
mean: 15.233
OKE: 6.065
low: -44.381
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -2.868
 CapEx To Revenue -0.095
 CapEx To Depreciation -2.035
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 51.5 B
 Net Invested Capital 54.3 B
 Invested Capital 54.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 10.8 B
 Net Working Capital -2.75 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.015
 Current Ratio 0.586
Current Ratio QoQ -11.939 %
Current Ratio YoY -5.755 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.867
median: 0.879
mean: 0.865
OKE: 0.586
low: 0.536
 Quick Ratio 0.457
Quick Ratio QoQ -11.979 %
Quick Ratio YoY 10.168 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 3.73
mean: 0.709
median: 0.691
low: 0.458
OKE: 0.457
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 16.919
 Cost Of Debt 1.041 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.541
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 17.682 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -20.118 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 5.431
mean: 3.819
OKE: 3.541
median: 3.163
low: 0.227
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.217
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 36.969
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.306
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.766
 Dividend Rate 1.02
 Dividend Yield 0.013
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.406 %
 Revenue Growth -1.94 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -113.02 %
Revenue Growth YoY -182.064 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 12.393 %
OKE: -1.94 %
median: -8.459 %
mean: -11.228 %
low: -55.731 %
 Earnings Growth 28.846 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -185.449 %
Earnings Growth YoY 31.011 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 116.923 %
OKE: 28.846 %
median: -11.111 %
mean: -12.348 %
low: -133.333 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 27.374 %
Gross Margin QoQ 9.645 %
Gross Margin YoY -23.051 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 79.612 %
median: 43.651 %
mean: 40.619 %
OKE: 27.374 %
low: 5.886 %
 EBIT Margin 19.665 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 18.922 %
EBIT Margin YoY -27.145 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 59.871 %
mean: 29.76 %
median: 29.048 %
OKE: 19.665 %
low: 1.289 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 18.423 %
Return On Sales QoQ 11.411 %
Return On Sales YoY -31.746 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 51.09 %
median: 28.278 %
mean: 27.026 %
OKE: 18.423 %
low: 1.309 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 776.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.572 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 230.947 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -24.277 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 11.608 %
mean: 1.67 %
median: 1.662 %
OKE: 1.572 %
low: -0.418 %
 Free Cash Growth 182.182 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -346.909 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -82.349 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA OKE: 182.182 %
high: 153.03 %
mean: 14.495 %
median: -10.961 %
low: -107.189 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.923
 Cash Flow Margin 18.245 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.711
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.306 %
Return On Assets QoQ 31.786 %
Return On Assets YoY -25.542 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.884 %
mean: 1.552 %
OKE: 1.306 %
median: 0.988 %
low: -0.629 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.68 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.039
Return On Equity QoQ 29.392 %
Return On Equity YoY -17.481 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.113
median: 0.044
mean: 0.042
OKE: 0.039
low: -0.048
 DuPont ROE 3.894 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.189 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 12.951 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -96.744 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 5.254 %
mean: 2.551 %
median: 2.385 %
OKE: 2.189 %
low: 0.181 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical signals favor a short-term rebound attempt: directional indicators and MACD show bullish dip & reversal behavior, MRO indicates price below target and potential to increase, and price near the lower Bollinger band supports a mean-reversion move. For a sustained upside leg, price must clear the 20-day average (~$69.6) and then the 50-day average (~$72.3); failure to reclaim those levels would preserve the broader downward bias evident against the 200-day average ($83.08).

Fundamentally, the August notes offering and the Bighorn greenlight reduce immediate liquidity pressure tied to near-term maturities and add capacity-driven growth potential; those items support a constructive fundamental backdrop while leverage metrics and lower margins constrain a stronger bullish thesis over the six-week horizon.

About ONEOK, Inc.

ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) develops a comprehensive network for the gathering, processing, storage, and transportation of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) across the United States. The company structures its operations into four key segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing, Natural Gas Liquids, Natural Gas Pipelines, and Refined Products and Crude. ONEOK owns and operates an extensive array of natural gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, primarily located in the Mid-Continent and Rocky Mountain regions. The company also manages NGL gathering and distribution pipelines across several states including Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and others, as well as terminal and storage facilities in the Midwest. In addition to its pipeline operations, ONEOK transports and stores natural gas through regulated interstate and intrastate pipelines and storage facilities. The company also facilitates the transportation of refined petroleum products and operates truck- and rail-loading facilities linked to its NGL infrastructure. Founded in 1906 and headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, ONEOK serves a diverse client base including exploration and production companies, utilities, and industrial entities, providing essential midstream services and commodity-related activities.



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