Merchants Bancorp, MBIN (NASDAQ) Signals Near-Term Upside Amid Overvalued Valuation

Merchants Bancorp shows technical momentum that favors a near-term rebound while fundamentals and WMDST valuation flag elevated price expectations. Recent dividend action and mixed operating metrics frame a cautious but constructive immediate view.

Recent News

On August 21, 2025 Merchants Bancorp announced quarterly cash dividends: $0.10 per common share (payable October 1, 2025; record/ex-dividend date September 15, 2025), along with proportional payments on preferred depositary series. No other non-earnings corporate headlines qualified in the 13-week window ending October 23, 2025.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX / DI+ / DI-): ADX at 10.52 indicates no established trend, while DI+ at 19.14 shows an increasing pattern that favors upside and DI- at 16.83 registered a peak & reversal, which also signals bullish directional readings; low ADX tempers conviction but directional indicators bias toward upside into the near term.

MACD: MACD at -0.08 shows a dip & reversal and sits above the signal line (-0.10), which constitutes a bullish momentum signal; the crossover supports the view that short-term momentum turned positive after a recent trough.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at -19.12 with a dip & reversal indicates price trades below the regression target and carries potential for catch-up gains; the negative oscillator points to upward pressure if momentum sustains.

RSI: RSI at 49.7 with a peak & reversal indicates a recent loss of upward momentum and short-term weakness in relative strength; this introduces a countervailing force against purely bullish momentum signals.

Price Versus Moving Averages and Bands: Price close at $32.44 sits above the 20-day average ($31.88) and roughly at short-term EMA levels (12-day EMA trend: dip & reversal), which supports a near-term lift; price remains below the 200-day average ($34.38), signaling longer-term underperformance relative to the multi-month trend. Bollinger band placement near the upper 1x band suggests limited immediate volatility expansion.

Ichimoku & Support: Tenkan-Sen ($31.69) and Kijun-Sen ($31.79) lie below the close, and the supertrend lower support at $30.55 provides a nearby downside reference; these levels align with short-term technical support if momentum stalls.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings And Revenue: Reported EPS of $0.60 missed the $1.12 estimate, an EPS surprise of -46.43%. Forward EPS stands at $1.39 and forward P/E at 23.86. Total revenue listed at $178,057,000; reported net income at $37,981,000. QoQ earnings growth registered -18.96% while earnings growth year-over-year measured +106.04%.

Valuation Multiples: Trailing P/E at 56.60 and P/B at 0.92 present a mixed picture: P/B sits below the industry peer mean (industry peer mean P/B = 1.19) while trailing P/E stands above the industry peer mean (industry peer mean P/E = 37.79). WMDST values the stock as over-valued and notes an EVR of 29.997 supporting that assessment.

Profitability & Returns: Return on assets at 0.20% and return on equity at 2.33% reflect low cash-on-assets and modest equity returns; both QoQ and YoY return-on-equity measures declined (QoQ -35.76%, YoY -56.22%), indicating compression of near-term profitability against last year’s levels.

Cash Flow & Dividends: Operating cash flow shows a negative $121,152,000 while ending cash equals $647,165,000; free cash flow stood at -$125,721,000 with a free cash flow yield of -8.34%. Dividend payout ratio equals 39.11% with dividend coverage of 2.56 and a dividend yield near 0.99% based on reported dividend metrics; the August dividend declaration confirms ongoing shareholder distributions despite negative near-term free cash flow.

Capital Structure & Leverage: Debt-to-assets at 20.03% increased sharply YoY (YoY change +50.50%) with debt-to-equity at 2.35 (YoY +46.71%); the company carries net debt of $3,187,309,000 versus market cap $1,506,709,582. Cost of debt stands near 3.487% and interest expense at $175,680,000, pressures that weigh on net margins and free cash flow.

Growth Trends: YoY revenue change measured -5.46% and QoQ revenue change registered -191.44% as reported; asset growth rate modest at 1.83%. Receivables turnover improved QoQ and YoY by +23.48% and +22.87% respectively, indicating faster collections versus recent periods.

Valuation Summary: Fundamentals combine an EPS miss, compressed short-term profitability, negative free cash flow, and elevated leverage with mixed multiples (low P/B but high trailing P/E). WMDST’s over-valued determination reflects these drivers alongside expected forward earnings and enterprise metrics.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-27
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 521.3 M
 Operating Cash Flow -121.15 M
 Capital Expenditures -4.57 M
 Change In Working Capital -24.36 M
 Dividends Paid -14.85 M
 Cash Flow Delta 125.9 M
 End Period Cash Flow 647.2 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 178.1 M
 Forward Revenue 74.8 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation 770.0 K
 Depreciation and Amortization 770.0 K
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA
 EBIT
 Operating Income
 Interest Income 304.4 M
 Interest Expense 175.7 M
 Net Interest Income 128.7 M
 Income Before Tax 48.8 M
 Tax Provision 10.9 M
 Tax Rate 22.2 %
 Net Income 38.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 38.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.12
 EPS Actual 0.60
 EPS Difference -0.52
 EPS Surprise -46.429 %
 Forward EPS 1.39
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 19.1 B
 Intangible Assets 201.1 M
 Net Tangible Assets 2.0 B
 Total Current Assets
 Cash and Short-Term Investments
 Cash 647.2 M
 Net Receivables 82.4 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities
 Net Debt 3.2 B
 Total Debt 3.8 B
 Total Liabilities 17.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.6 B
 Retained Earnings 1.4 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 35.60
 Shares Outstanding 45.885 M
 Revenue Per-Share 3.88
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.5 B
 Enterprise Value 5.3 B
 Enterprise Multiple
Enterprise Multiple QoQ
Enterprise Multiple YoY
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R 29.997
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 11.719
 Asset To Liability 1.129
 Debt To Capital 0.701
 Debt To Assets 0.2
Debt To Assets QoQ -5.895 %
Debt To Assets YoY 5049.871 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.346
MBIN: 0.2
mean: 0.097
median: 0.074
low: 0.003
 Debt To Equity 2.348
Debt To Equity QoQ -5.582 %
Debt To Equity YoY 4670.636 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 4.593
MBIN: 2.348
mean: 1.043
median: 0.63
low: -1.21
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.922
Price To Book QoQ -11.364 %
Price To Book YoY -32.708 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 2.214
mean: 1.192
median: 1.025
MBIN: 0.922
low: 0.433
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 56.597
Price To Earnings QoQ 61.23 %
Price To Earnings YoY 95.645 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 93.007
MBIN: 56.597
mean: 37.79
median: 37.51
low: -19.014
 PE/G Ratio -1.595
 Price To Sales (P/S) 8.462
Price To Sales QoQ -26.702 %
Price To Sales YoY -32.007 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 26.993
mean: 11.095
median: 10.707
MBIN: 8.462
low: 1.333
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 23.864
Forward PE/G -0.673
Forward P/S 20.156
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.009
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 21.632 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 6.705 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.035
mean: 0.014
median: 0.012
MBIN: 0.009
low: 0.003
 Receivables Turnover 2.156
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 23.477 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 22.871 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 5.751
median: 2.477
mean: 2.367
MBIN: 2.156
low: 0.682
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 42.331
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio
 CapEx To Revenue -0.026
 CapEx To Depreciation -5.934
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 6.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 5.5 B
 Invested Capital 5.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 2.0 B
 Net Working Capital
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio
Current Ratio QoQ
Current Ratio YoY
Current Ratio IPRWA
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA
 Cost Of Debt 3.487 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 2.557
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.391
 Dividend Rate 0.32
 Dividend Yield 0.01
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.827 %
 Revenue Growth 22.721 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -191.436 %
Revenue Growth YoY -546.473 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 30.085 %
MBIN: 22.721 %
mean: 8.792 %
median: 3.74 %
low: -12.916 %
 Earnings Growth -35.484 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -18.957 %
Earnings Growth YoY 106.039 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 133.333 %
mean: 13.407 %
median: 7.843 %
MBIN: -35.484 %
low: -81.818 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin
EBIT Margin QoQ
EBIT Margin YoY
EBIT Margin IPRWA
 Return On Sales (ROS)
Return On Sales QoQ
Return On Sales YoY
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -125.72 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -8.344 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -199.003 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -459.036 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 11.343 %
median: 2.247 %
mean: 0.619 %
MBIN: -8.344 %
low: -15.511 %
 Free Cash Growth -189.051 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -80.484 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 68.989 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 562.614 %
median: -14.706 %
mean: -38.206 %
MBIN: -189.051 %
low: -637.309 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -3.31
 Cash Flow Margin 21.999 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.031
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.2 %
Return On Assets QoQ -35.484 %
Return On Assets YoY -52.83 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 0.656 %
mean: 0.309 %
median: 0.295 %
MBIN: 0.2 %
low: -0.212 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.023
Return On Equity QoQ -35.756 %
Return On Equity YoY -56.215 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.07
median: 0.033
mean: 0.032
MBIN: 0.023
low: -0.011
 DuPont ROE 2.343 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)
Return On Invested Capital QoQ
Return On Invested Capital YoY
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA

Six-Week Outlook

Short-term technical signals favor a bounce: DI+ increasing, DI- peak & reversal, a bullish MACD crossover, and negative MRO implying upside potential toward mean targets. RSI peak & reversal and price below the 200-day average introduce headwinds that could cap gains. Dividend confirmation on August 21, 2025 supplies a near-term cash catalyst that may support price stability around current levels. Watch for follow-through above short-term averages to validate momentum; failure to hold support near $30.55 would return focus to the divergent fundamentals and WMDST’s over-valued assessment.

About Merchants Bancorp

Merchants Bancorp (NASDAQ:MBIN) develops as a diversified bank holding company within the United States. Headquartered in Carmel, Indiana, the company structures its operations through three main segments: Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking. In the Multi-family Mortgage Banking segment, Merchants Bancorp originates and services government-sponsored mortgages, providing bridge financing solutions for the refinancing, acquisition, or repositioning of multi-family housing projects. This segment also extends construction lending for multi-family and healthcare facilities, and creates customized loan products tailored for skilled nursing facilities, including independent living, assisted living, and memory care options. Additionally, the segment offers tax credit equity syndication services. The Mortgage Warehousing segment funds agency-eligible residential loans and commercial loans to non-depository financial institutions, supporting a range of financial activities. The Banking segment delivers a comprehensive suite of financial products and services to both consumers and businesses. This includes retail banking, commercial and agricultural lending, retail and correspondent residential mortgage banking, and small business administration lending. Founded in 1990, Merchants Bancorp consistently provides a broad spectrum of financial services, catering to diverse customer needs across various sectors.



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