Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) Poised To Extend Near-Term Upside Following Portfolio Simplification

Divestiture activity and operational redeployment have sharpened Dollar Tree’s strategic focus and added liquidity; near-term momentum indicators favor further consolidation with a positive bias for price recovery.

Recent News

Late summer reporting and filings reiterated that the Family Dollar divestiture closed in early July 2025, delivering roughly $800 million of net proceeds and simplifying the corporate footprint; subsequent coverage in September described new distribution-center plans and continued rollout of multi-price store conversions and site investments.

Technical Analysis

ADX / DI+ / DI-: ADX sits at 32.26, signaling a strong trend in place. DI+ shows an increasing trend while DI- trends down, a conjunction that produces a bullish directional bias consistent with momentum building toward higher prices.

MACD: MACD at -0.52 has turned higher and lies above its signal line (-2.08), producing a bullish momentum crossover despite the negative absolute value; that crossover supports near-term upside pressure on price.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at -5.19 with a dip-and-reversal pattern indicates the market price sits below the model target and implies potential for a corrective increase toward fair-value levels.

RSI: RSI at 47.1 and rising denotes recovered buying interest without overbought conditions, favoring additional measured gains rather than an immediate exhaustion of momentum.

Price vs. Moving Averages and Bands: Last close $100.47 trades above the 200-day average ($89.11) and rounds the 50-day average ($99.99), while exceeding the 20-day average ($92.87) and the 1x Bollinger upper band ($98.50). Those alignments favor continuation of the short-to-intermediate up-leg, with the super-trend lower support near $91.94 providing a reference level for downside containment.

Ichimoku / EMAs: Price sits below the Senkou cloud (Senkou A $106.75 / Senkou B $107.33), which tempers a fully bullish read, but the 12/26-day EMAs (~$95.6) trend up and remain below price, supplying momentum confirmation for near-term appreciation.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue and Profitability: Total revenue registers at $4,570,400,000. YoY revenue growth reads -55.11% while the period-over-period revenue change shows -1.49%; these numbers reflect discrete changes in business composition and require reading alongside divestiture items. Operating income / EBIT of $231,000,000 produces an EBIT margin of 5.06%, a YoY margin expansion of 83.98% but a QoQ contraction of -47.30%.

Margins and Cash Generation: Gross margin at 34.432% and operating margin at 5.054% both improved year-over-year, while operating cash flow stands at $625,100,000 and free cash flow at $380,100,000 (free-cash-flow yield 1.75%), slightly above the industry peer mean for free-cash-flow yield.

Leverage and Liquidity: Total debt $7,342,700,000 with net debt $2,062,900,000 yields debt-to-EBITDA of ~18.66x and debt-to-equity of 2.04; interest coverage remains robust at 10.15x. Cash and short-term investments total $666,300,000 while the current ratio sits at 1.04 and quick ratio at 0.27.

Valuation Multiples and Market Signals: Reported trailing PE stands at 138.1x and price-to-book at 6.04x; both measure above the industry peer mean values (PE mean ~71.8x; P/B mean ~4.80), indicating richer market pricing relative to peers on conventional multiples. Forward EPS equals $1.515 with a forward PE near 65.21x. Enterprise multiple runs high near 72.28x.

Earnings Delivery: Reported EPS $0.77 versus an estimate of $0.41 produced an EPS surprise of ~87.8%, a notable beat that affected profitability metrics for the period under continuing operations.

Operational Efficiency: Asset turnover of 0.2886 trails the industry peer mean but sits within the reported peer range; return on equity 5.226% falls below the industry peer mean but above the peer low, reflecting modest capital efficiency amid restructuring. Inventory days (~82 days) and a cash-conversion-cycle ~34 days remain operational levers.

WMDST Valuation Conclusion: The current valuation as determined by WMDST: over-valued. The designation reflects stretched multiples (trailing and enterprise measures) relative to fundamental cash-generation and a balance sheet still digesting divestiture effects.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-07-31
REPORT DATE: 2025-09-03
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-12-03
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 1.3 B
 Operating Cash Flow 625.1 M
 Capital Expenditures -245.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -227.30 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -553.90 M
 End Period Cash Flow 757.3 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 4.6 B
 Forward Revenue 1.9 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 3.0 B
 Depreciation 162.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 162.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 4.3 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.6 B
 EBITDA 393.4 M
 EBIT 231.4 M
 Operating Income 231.0 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 22.8 M
 Net Interest Income -22.80 M
 Income Before Tax 208.6 M
 Tax Provision 53.1 M
 Tax Rate 25.455 %
 Net Income 188.4 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 281.1 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.41
 EPS Actual 0.77
 EPS Difference 0.36
 EPS Surprise 87.805 %
 Forward EPS 1.51
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 13.4 B
 Intangible Assets 422.4 M
 Net Tangible Assets 3.2 B
 Total Current Assets 3.6 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 666.3 M
 Cash 666.3 M
 Net Receivables
 Inventory 2.7 B
 Long-Term Investments 217.5 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.6 B
 Short-Term Debt 299.5 M
 Total Current Liabilities 3.5 B
 Net Debt 2.1 B
 Total Debt 7.3 B
 Total Liabilities 9.8 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.6 B
 Retained Earnings 3.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 17.62
 Shares Outstanding 204.634 M
 Revenue Per-Share 22.33
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 21.8 B
 Enterprise Value 28.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 72.281
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 80.018 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 43.205 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 85.579
DLTR: 72.281
median: 46.609
mean: 46.226
low: 17.483
 EV/R 6.222
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.713
 Asset To Liability 1.369
 Debt To Capital 0.671
 Debt To Assets 0.549
Debt To Assets QoQ 26.895 %
Debt To Assets YoY 892.725 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA DLTR: 0.549
high: 0.539
mean: 0.392
median: 0.35
low: 0.345
 Debt To Equity 2.037
Debt To Equity QoQ 0.578 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1102.616 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.13
DLTR: 2.037
mean: 1.297
median: 1.295
low: 0.884
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 6.036
Price To Book QoQ 38.092 %
Price To Book YoY 102.283 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 7.904
DLTR: 6.036
mean: 4.802
median: 2.988
low: 0.32
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 138.093
Price To Earnings QoQ 114.249 %
Price To Earnings YoY -9.663 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 158.733
DLTR: 138.093
mean: 71.806
median: 58.392
low: 8.181
 PE/G Ratio -3.551
 Price To Sales (P/S) 4.761
Price To Sales QoQ 29.426 %
Price To Sales YoY 59.544 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 8.195
DLTR: 4.761
mean: 4.527
median: 2.231
low: 0.354
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 65.209
Forward PE/G -1.677
Forward P/S 11.573
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 32.199
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.289
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 14.863 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -12.541 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.442
mean: 0.387
median: 0.384
DLTR: 0.289
low: 0.227
 Receivables Turnover
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Inventory Turnover 1.112
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.112 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 9.029 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.516
median: 1.381
mean: 1.344
DLTR: 1.112
low: 0.656
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 33.934
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -35.952 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 224.823
median: 50.135
mean: 45.547
DLTR: 33.934
low: -57.702
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 35.987
 CapEx To Revenue -0.054
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.512
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 6.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 6.3 B
 Invested Capital 6.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 3.2 B
 Net Working Capital 127.0 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.191
 Current Ratio 1.036
Current Ratio QoQ -0.697 %
Current Ratio YoY 2.07 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 1.714
mean: 1.303
median: 1.253
DLTR: 1.036
low: 0.99
 Quick Ratio 0.267
Quick Ratio QoQ -62.698 %
Quick Ratio YoY 61.616 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 0.983
mean: 0.583
median: 0.32
DLTR: 0.267
low: 0.188
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 18.665
 Cost Of Debt 0.223 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 10.149
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -48.321 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 44.416 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 85.038
mean: 38.374
median: 11.5
DLTR: 10.149
low: 3.577
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.113
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 48.356
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -26.823 %
 Revenue Growth -1.494 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -99.225 %
Revenue Growth YoY -55.108 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 10.916 %
mean: 7.108 %
median: 5.724 %
low: 2.796 %
DLTR: -1.494 %
 Earnings Growth -38.889 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -3.463 %
Earnings Growth YoY -26.827 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 57.692 %
mean: 24.364 %
median: 6.122 %
low: -5.814 %
DLTR: -38.889 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 34.432 %
Gross Margin QoQ -3.338 %
Gross Margin YoY 14.415 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 43.288 %
DLTR: 34.432 %
mean: 29.34 %
median: 28.987 %
low: 27.617 %
 EBIT Margin 5.063 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -47.304 %
EBIT Margin YoY 83.975 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 12.273 %
mean: 7.922 %
median: 5.55 %
low: 5.1 %
DLTR: 5.063 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 5.054 %
Return On Sales QoQ -47.398 %
Return On Sales YoY 83.648 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 11.544 %
mean: 7.595 %
median: 5.55 %
DLTR: 5.054 %
low: 4.54 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 380.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.747 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 27.332 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -296.292 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 2.359 %
median: 2.212 %
DLTR: 1.747 %
mean: 1.711 %
low: 0.669 %
 Free Cash Growth 62.367 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -177.836 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -133.18 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 130.623 %
DLTR: 62.367 %
median: 1.525 %
mean: -67.647 %
low: -351.485 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.018
 Cash Flow Margin 8.594 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.085
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.19 %
Return On Assets QoQ -35.987 %
Return On Assets YoY 101.014 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.528 %
mean: 2.224 %
median: 1.64 %
DLTR: 1.19 %
low: 0.944 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.338 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.052
Return On Equity QoQ -40.573 %
Return On Equity YoY 191.304 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.089
mean: 0.067
median: 0.061
DLTR: 0.052
low: 0.022
 DuPont ROE 5.017 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.723 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -39.543 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -88.013 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.091 %
mean: 4.595 %
median: 3.312 %
DLTR: 2.723 %
low: 2.028 %

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum indicators align to favor a constructive near-term bias: directional indicators, a MACD crossover, and rising RSI point to additional consolidation with an upside tilt over the next six weeks, while MRO signals room to climb toward model value. Key technical reference levels include the 12/26-day EMAs and the super-trend support; price behavior relative to the upper Bollinger band and the Ichimoku cloud will determine whether the move broadens into a sustained recovery or stalls into a sideways range. Fundamental context—proceeds from the Family Dollar divestiture, elevated leverage ratios, and rich multiples—suggests that any sustained advance will require confirmation via follow-through in operating cash flow and visible margin stability in subsequent reporting periods.

About Dollar Tree, Inc.

Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) develops a significant presence in the discount retail industry, with its headquarters in Chesapeake, Virginia. The company manages two main segments: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. Dollar Tree stores implement a fixed pricing strategy, offering a diverse selection of products for $1.25. Customers discover a variety of items, including consumables such as food, health and personal care products, and household essentials, alongside seasonal and specialty goods like party supplies and arts and crafts. Family Dollar expands the product range by offering a comprehensive selection of general merchandise. This includes consumables, home products, apparel, and electronics, meeting a broad spectrum of consumer demands. Shoppers find everything from groceries to fashion accessories in one convenient location. Both segments emphasize value and convenience, establishing Dollar Tree, Inc. as a preferred choice for budget-minded consumers in the United States and Canada. Dollar Tree, Inc. consistently grows its market presence, managing thousands of stores and distribution centers. The company remains committed to providing essential products at affordable prices, serving communities with a focus on quality and accessibility.



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