Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ:KALU) Shows Bullish Momentum But Faces Near-Term Downside Risk

Kaiser Aluminum enters a phase of competing technical momentum and fundamental pressure, with momentum indicators suggesting short-term strength while cash-flow and leverage metrics argue for caution.

Recent News

On July 28, 2025 the company announced the resignation of board member Kevin W. Williams, effective August 1, 2025. On October 16, 2025 the company amended and extended its $575 million senior secured revolving credit facility, improving operational flexibility and extending maturity.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators present conflicting signals: DI+ registered at 24.05 with a peak-and-reverse pattern, which indicates bearish pressure from weakening positive directional movement, while DI- at 18.17 showed a dip-and-reverse pattern that also points toward increased negative directional influence. ADX at 15.28 signals no established trend, which limits conviction that directional readings will produce a sustained move.

Momentum measures split the picture. MACD sits at 0.62 and trades above its 0.45 signal line with an increasing trend, signaling bullish momentum and the potential for further upside attempts over days to weeks. At the same time MRO registers 29.42 with a peak-and-reversal pattern, indicating the price currently sits above the model target and exposing the stock to pullback risk from a technical topping process.

Price sits above short, medium and long-term averages: the 12-day EMA at 78.97 and the 20-day average at 78.93 sit below the close of $79.75, while the 50-day average at 77.21 and the 200-day average at 72.31 also sit well under price, supporting a bullish bias for trend-following participants. Bollinger bands place the upper 1x band at 80.67; the close near that band suggests limited immediate upside breadth without a volatility expansion.

RSI reads 51.87 and trends higher, indicating neutral-to-positive momentum without overbought conditions. Volume at 107,600 tracks the 10-day average, offering no strong volume confirmation for recent price moves. Short-term volatility shows elevated beta (42-day 1.53), implying price moves could amplify on incoming news or macro shifts.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue reached $823.1M. YoY revenue growth measured 20.77%, while the trailing revenue growth rate registered 5.88%, reflecting recent sequential improvement in top-line activity. Gross profit reached $100.3M, producing a gross margin of 12.19%.

  • Profitability: EBIT of $42.4M produces an EBIT margin of 5.15%, up 165.65% year-over-year and up 0.12 percentage points QoQ, but that margin sits well below the industry peer mean of 31.49% and the industry peer median of 31.54%.
  • Earnings: Reported EPS came in at $1.21 versus an estimate of $0.76, an EPS surprise of 59.21% (difference $0.45). Forward EPS stood at $1.3625 with a forward P/E of 52.56x.
  • Cash Flow: Free cash flow registered negative $27.7M and a free cash flow yield of -2.20%, while operating cash flow equaled $15.9M. The cash conversion cycle ran 78.2 days, slightly above the industry peer mean of 73.11 days, indicating marginally slower working-capital conversion versus peers.
  • Balance Sheet and Leverage: Total debt reached $1,106.3M with net debt about $1,062.1M. Debt-to-equity stands at 142.56%, markedly above the industry peer mean of 24.60%, and debt-to-assets at 44.03%. Interest coverage measured 3.39x.
  • Returns and Efficiency: Return on equity measured 2.99%, below the industry peer mean of 3.93%. Asset turnover sits at 0.33, above the industry peer mean of 0.1517, reflecting relatively efficient asset utilization despite lower margin levels.
  • Valuation: Trailing P/E registered 64.44x with price-to-book 1.63x (below the industry peer mean of 3.10x). Enterprise multiple measured 32.70x. The current valuation, as determined by WMDST, values the stock as over-valued.

Summary: profitability gains and an EPS beat support the improved earnings narrative, but negative free cash flow and elevated leverage contrast with modest margins. The leverage profile and cash-flow shortfall create fundamental limits to re-rating, which underpins WMDST’s over-valued conclusion despite short-term earnings strength.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-23
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-22
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 41.3 M
 Operating Cash Flow 15.9 M
 Capital Expenditures -43.60 M
 Change In Working Capital -50.50 M
 Dividends Paid -12.80 M
 Cash Flow Delta -8.40 M
 End Period Cash Flow 32.9 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 823.1 M
 Forward Revenue 195.5 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 722.8 M
 Depreciation 28.4 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 29.6 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 785.0 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 100.3 M
 EBITDA 72.0 M
 EBIT 42.4 M
 Operating Income 38.1 M
 Interest Income 200.0 K
 Interest Expense 12.5 M
 Net Interest Income -12.30 M
 Income Before Tax 29.9 M
 Tax Provision 6.7 M
 Tax Rate 22.0 %
 Net Income 23.2 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 23.2 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.76
 EPS Actual 1.21
 EPS Difference 0.45
 EPS Surprise 59.211 %
 Forward EPS 1.36
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.5 B
 Intangible Assets 62.0 M
 Net Tangible Assets 714.0 M
 Total Current Assets 1.2 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 13.1 M
 Cash 13.1 M
 Net Receivables 378.7 M
 Inventory 595.6 M
 Long-Term Investments 68.2 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 317.8 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 426.2 M
 Net Debt 1.1 B
 Total Debt 1.1 B
 Total Liabilities 1.7 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 776.0 M
 Retained Earnings 100.4 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 47.97
 Shares Outstanding 16.178 M
 Revenue Per-Share 50.88
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.3 B
 Enterprise Value 2.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 32.704
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 10.457 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 6.539 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 194.158
mean: 51.156
KALU: 32.704
median: 23.701
low: -189.617
 EV/R 2.861
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.238
 Asset To Liability 1.447
 Debt To Capital 0.588
 Debt To Assets 0.44
Debt To Assets QoQ 0.016 %
Debt To Assets YoY 10407.637 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.485
KALU: 0.44
median: 0.138
mean: 0.137
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 1.426
Debt To Equity QoQ 0.468 %
Debt To Equity YoY 9631.331 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA KALU: 1.426
high: 1.084
mean: 0.246
median: 0.237
low: 0.0
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.626
Price To Book QoQ 20.622 %
Price To Book YoY -24.244 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 12.847
mean: 3.102
median: 2.798
KALU: 1.626
low: 0.467
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 64.444
Price To Earnings QoQ 46.979 %
Price To Earnings YoY -52.564 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 199.465
KALU: 64.444
mean: 40.546
median: 36.378
low: -190.951
 PE/G Ratio -4.035
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1.533
Price To Sales QoQ 16.815 %
Price To Sales YoY -16.56 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 25.697
median: 13.165
mean: 12.262
KALU: 1.533
low: 0.608
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 52.557
Forward PE/G -3.291
Forward P/S 6.452
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.021
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.332
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.645 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -0.815 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.462
KALU: 0.332
median: 0.154
mean: 0.152
low: 0.005
 Receivables Turnover 2.267
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.725 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 4.286 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 30.072
median: 6.082
mean: 5.41
KALU: 2.267
low: 1.305
 Inventory Turnover 1.238
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.091 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -17.71 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.589
KALU: 1.238
median: 1.152
mean: 1.076
low: 0.34
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 40.248
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 78.224
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 6.108 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 15.534 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 126.513
KALU: 78.224
mean: 73.114
median: 64.45
low: -49.475
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.136
 CapEx To Revenue -0.053
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.535
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.9 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets 714.0 M
 Net Working Capital 724.4 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.031
 Current Ratio 2.7
Current Ratio QoQ 1.195 %
Current Ratio YoY 5.903 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 16.134
mean: 2.705
KALU: 2.7
median: 2.681
low: 0.014
 Quick Ratio 1.302
Quick Ratio QoQ 2.398 %
Quick Ratio YoY -8.411 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.842
median: 1.585
mean: 1.583
KALU: 1.302
low: 0.525
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 15.365
 Cost Of Debt 0.89 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.392
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -5.024 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 151.008 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 65.805
mean: 23.752
median: 18.382
KALU: 3.392
low: -124.147
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.062
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 41.16
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.812
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.552
 Dividend Rate 0.79
 Dividend Yield 0.01
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 3.0 %
 Revenue Growth 5.879 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 274.936 %
Revenue Growth YoY 20.768 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 87.493 %
mean: 12.011 %
median: 6.128 %
KALU: 5.879 %
low: -50.608 %
 Earnings Growth -15.972 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -104.748 %
Earnings Growth YoY -55.97 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 425.0 %
mean: 88.37 %
median: 46.667 %
KALU: -15.972 %
low: -166.667 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 12.186 %
Gross Margin QoQ -8.91 %
Gross Margin YoY 13.686 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 82.056 %
median: 42.607 %
mean: 35.341 %
KALU: 12.186 %
low: -39.531 %
 EBIT Margin 5.151 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 0.117 %
EBIT Margin YoY 165.652 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 59.865 %
median: 31.537 %
mean: 31.488 %
KALU: 5.151 %
low: -119.363 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 4.629 %
Return On Sales QoQ -10.029 %
Return On Sales YoY 138.731 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 49.338 %
median: 40.859 %
mean: 27.58 %
KALU: 4.629 %
low: -67.951 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -27.70 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -2.196 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -219.154 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 79.265 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.837 %
mean: 1.168 %
median: 1.003 %
KALU: -2.196 %
low: -6.393 %
 Free Cash Growth -247.34 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -0.749 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 62.454 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 284.532 %
median: 41.909 %
mean: -49.105 %
KALU: -247.34 %
low: -451.584 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -1.194
 Cash Flow Margin 3.207 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.138
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.937 %
Return On Assets QoQ 3.08 %
Return On Assets YoY 599.254 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 5.442 %
median: 2.623 %
mean: 2.236 %
KALU: 0.937 %
low: -25.167 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.032 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.03
Return On Equity QoQ 4.765 %
Return On Equity YoY 538.889 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.133
median: 0.042
mean: 0.039
KALU: 0.03
low: -0.328
 DuPont ROE 3.028 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.777 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 6.535 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -109.103 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 10.141 %
mean: 3.988 %
median: 3.984 %
KALU: 1.777 %
low: -12.344 %

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum indicators (MACD rising above its signal line and RSI building from neutral) favor episodic upside attempts over the coming six weeks, but directional indicators and a peak-patterning MRO raise the probability of a corrective pullback during any extended rally. Expect price to oscillate around the mid-to-upper $70s with heightened sensitivity to liquidity-related headlines given recent credit facility amendments and board turnover. Volatility could expand on any fresh guidance or cash-flow updates; traders should monitor leverage disclosures and free-cash-flow revisions for catalysts that would alter the present technical and fundamental balance.

About Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ:KALU) manufactures semi-fabricated specialty aluminum products for diverse industries globally. Founded in 1946 and headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee, the company develops a wide range of aluminum offerings, including rolled, extruded, and drawn products. Kaiser Aluminum supports sectors such as aerospace, defense, automotive, and food and beverage packaging with its high-quality materials. In the automotive industry, Kaiser Aluminum provides high-performance extrusions used in structural components and safety systems. The company’s packaging division delivers robust aluminum coils for beverage and food containers. For general engineering purposes, Kaiser Aluminum supplies alloy plates, sheets, rods, and tubes, which are crucial for military, semiconductor, and industrial applications. Kaiser Aluminum prioritizes quality and innovation, employing advanced fabrication services such as precision sawing and cutting. Its expansive distribution network covers the United States, Canada, Western Europe, China, and other regions, ensuring widespread availability of its aluminum solutions. The company dedicates itself to maintaining high standards of excellence and sustainability in aluminum manufacturing, continually influencing industry benchmarks.



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