TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:TTE) Poised To Extend Near-Term Upside On Operational Momentum

TotalEnergies shows a near-term bullish tilt backed by converging technical momentum and operational news while fundamentals present a mixed cash-flow and margin profile consistent with a fair-valued assessment.

Recent News

07/22/2025 — TotalEnergies announced a strategic collaboration with Emerson to deploy AspenTech Inmation for industrial data collection across global sites. 07/22/2025 — the company disclosed share repurchases executed mid-July. 07/22/2025 — TotalEnergies signed improved-forest management agreements across 100,000 hectares in the U.S. South. 07/23/2025 — a 50/50 LNG bunkering logistics joint venture with CMA CGM was announced to develop Rotterdam ARA facilities and a 20,000 m3 bunker vessel. 07/29/2025 — TotalEnergies exited selected offshore South African exploration blocks. 10/15/2025 — the company issued a Q3 trading update flagging higher hydrocarbon production and much stronger refining margins, offset by maintenance at an Australian LNG plant that reduced integrated LNG output.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 16.05 indicates no established trend, suggesting price action remains range-defined despite short-term signals; this moderates conviction behind any directional breakout and ties directly to the fair-valued stance.

DI+ shows a dip & reversal while DI- shows a peak & reversal; both directional indicators imply a bullish directional rebalancing, supporting a near-term upside bias to price relative to valuation.

MACD currently at -0.33 with a MACD signal at -0.51 has crossed above its signal line and exhibits a dip & reversal, signaling a transition toward bullish momentum that aligns with the operational uplift cited in recent updates.

MRO sits at -23.69 with a dip & reversal; the negative value indicates price below model target and, combined with the reversal, implies potential upward pressure as valuation metrics reprice toward fair value.

RSI at 48.33 with a dip & reversal reads as neutral-to-firming momentum rather than overbought conditions; this supports constructive short-term moves without immediate exhaustion risk.

Price sits at $61.04 above the 200-day average ($59.64) and above the 12- and 26-day EMAs; the 12-day EMA shows a dip & reversal. Price trades slightly above the 1x Bollinger upper band ($60.92), suggesting short-term strength while remaining inside the 2x band ceiling ($62.30). Ichimoku lines place the Tenkan at $59.49 and Kijun at $60.45 with price above both, reinforcing short-term bullish structure.

Low realized volatility (42-day beta 0.32, 52-week beta 0.49) and volume near recent averages point to measured moves rather than sharp breakouts; SuperTrend lower support sits near $58.91, which anchors downside risk relative to current valuation.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings: reported EPS $1.57 versus estimate $1.61, an EPS surprise of -2.48%. Forward EPS sits at $2.03. The reported EPS shortfall marginally reduces short-term earnings momentum but leaves forward earnings multiple materially lower than the trailing P/E.

Multiples and valuation: trailing P/E equals 38.79x while forward P/E equals 29.55x; price-to-book equals 1.16x, below the industry peer mean of 1.57x and below the peer median of 1.77x. Enterprise value approximates $171.43B versus market cap $134.81B, producing an enterprise multiple near 18.99x. WMDST values the stock as fair-valued given the balance of multiples, cash flow, and leverage.

Margins and profitability: EBIT margin at 12.69% falls below the industry peer mean of 17.39% and sits slightly under the peer median of 13.65%. Operating margin equals 9.69% and gross margin equals 27.44%. Both EBIT margin QoQ declined by 17.64% and YoY declined by 14.49%, indicating margin compression versus recent periods despite the recent refining margin tailwind cited in operating updates.

Revenue and growth: revenue totaled $44.676B with YoY revenue growth of +29.30% and an overall revenue growth figure of -6.73%; quarter-on-quarter revenue change shows -504.39% as reported. These cadence figures signal sizeable period-to-period swings in top-line recognition and require cautious interpretation when aligning near-term price bias with fundamental growth.

Cash flow and capital allocation: operating cash flow equals $5.96B and free cash flow equals $1.19B, producing a free cash flow yield of 0.89%, below the industry peer mean of 1.28%. Capital expenditures totaled -$4.77B. Cash and short-term investments total $25.61B while net debt stands at $41.80B, producing leverage metrics that sit within the firm’s historical framework but leave limited excess liquidity for outsized buybacks beyond disclosed activity.

Balance sheet and coverage: total debt equals $62.22B, debt-to-EBITDA equals 6.89x, and interest coverage approximates 6.95x, sufficient for near-term coverage but elevated versus lower-leverage peers. Return on equity equals 2.30% and return on assets equals 0.92%, reflecting capital intensity in an integrated energy model. Dividend yield equals 1.41% with a payout ratio near 70.49% and dividend coverage about 1.42x.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-24
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 22.8 B
 Operating Cash Flow 6.0 B
 Capital Expenditures -4.77 B
 Change In Working Capital 49.0 M
 Dividends Paid -1.89 B
 Cash Flow Delta -2.41 B
 End Period Cash Flow 20.4 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 44.7 B
 Forward Revenue 18.6 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 32.4 B
 Depreciation 3.4 B
 Depreciation and Amortization 3.4 B
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 40.3 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 12.3 B
 EBITDA 9.0 B
 EBIT 5.7 B
 Operating Income 4.3 B
 Interest Income 327.0 M
 Interest Expense 816.0 M
 Net Interest Income -263.00 M
 Income Before Tax 4.9 B
 Tax Provision 2.1 B
 Tax Rate 25.0 %
 Net Income 2.7 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 2.7 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.61
 EPS Actual 1.57
 EPS Difference -0.04
 EPS Surprise -2.484 %
 Forward EPS 2.03
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 292.8 B
 Intangible Assets 36.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets 80.0 B
 Total Current Assets 90.8 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 25.6 B
 Cash 20.4 B
 Net Receivables 21.3 B
 Inventory 17.3 B
 Long-Term Investments 4.1 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 39.3 B
 Short-Term Debt 14.6 B
 Total Current Liabilities 91.2 B
 Net Debt 41.8 B
 Total Debt 62.2 B
 Total Liabilities 173.8 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 116.6 B
 Retained Earnings
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 52.94
 Shares Outstanding 2.203 B
 Revenue Per-Share 20.28
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 134.8 B
 Enterprise Value 171.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 18.988
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 22.72 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 45.491 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 75.659
mean: 30.835
median: 28.835
TTE: 18.988
low: -7.608
 EV/R 3.837
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.51
 Asset To Liability 1.685
 Debt To Capital 0.348
 Debt To Assets 0.212
Debt To Assets QoQ 4.84 %
Debt To Assets YoY 426.878 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.609
mean: 0.237
TTE: 0.212
median: 0.21
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 0.533
Debt To Equity QoQ 6.662 %
Debt To Equity YoY 455.551 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.807
mean: 0.734
TTE: 0.533
median: 0.418
low: 0.002
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.156
Price To Book QoQ 3.276 %
Price To Book YoY -12.018 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 3.756
median: 1.768
mean: 1.571
TTE: 1.156
low: 0.005
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 38.792
Price To Earnings QoQ 19.416 %
Price To Earnings YoY 15.059 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 185.623
mean: 52.576
median: 48.382
TTE: 38.792
low: -96.671
 PE/G Ratio -2.73
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.018
Price To Sales QoQ 9.493 %
Price To Sales YoY -3.75 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 30.921
mean: 6.183
median: 5.84
TTE: 3.018
low: 0.012
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 29.55
Forward PE/G -2.08
Forward P/S 7.243
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.446
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.153
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -7.902 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -12.474 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.422
median: 0.165
mean: 0.154
TTE: 0.153
low: 0.002
 Receivables Turnover 1.937
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -10.717 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -11.706 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.047
mean: 1.94
TTE: 1.937
median: 1.804
low: 0.322
 Inventory Turnover 1.785
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -0.044 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 2.817 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 23.002
mean: 3.374
median: 2.469
TTE: 1.785
low: 0.051
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 47.116
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -14.247
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -26.806 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 5782.624 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 82.233
median: 6.538
mean: 3.157
TTE: -14.247
low: -110.2
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -120.746
 CapEx To Revenue -0.107
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.418
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 164.2 B
 Net Invested Capital 178.9 B
 Invested Capital 178.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets 80.0 B
 Net Working Capital -370.00 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.281
 Current Ratio 0.996
Current Ratio QoQ -7.241 %
Current Ratio YoY -10.644 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 5.453
median: 1.249
mean: 1.206
TTE: 0.996
low: 0.329
 Quick Ratio 0.807
Quick Ratio QoQ -6.566 %
Quick Ratio YoY -7.232 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 3.791
mean: 0.944
median: 0.919
TTE: 0.807
low: 0.247
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 6.892
 Cost Of Debt 1.01 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 6.946
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -31.754 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -30.987 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 22.447
mean: 6.959
TTE: 6.946
median: 6.558
low: -20.714
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.09
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 110.302
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.419
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.705
 Dividend Rate 0.86
 Dividend Yield 0.014
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.605 %
 Revenue Growth -6.729 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -504.387 %
Revenue Growth YoY 29.304 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 43.755 %
median: -3.744 %
mean: -4.948 %
TTE: -6.729 %
low: -35.032 %
 Earnings Growth -14.208 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 285.668 %
Earnings Growth YoY 90.023 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 122.222 %
TTE: -14.208 %
median: -21.739 %
mean: -24.218 %
low: -180.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 27.442 %
Gross Margin QoQ -6.418 %
Gross Margin YoY -4.21 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 82.166 %
TTE: 27.442 %
mean: 24.775 %
median: 22.581 %
low: -39.892 %
 EBIT Margin 12.687 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -17.644 %
EBIT Margin YoY -14.485 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 95.08 %
mean: 17.391 %
median: 13.652 %
TTE: 12.687 %
low: -39.515 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 9.69 %
Return On Sales QoQ -37.098 %
Return On Sales YoY -34.686 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 90.781 %
mean: 14.097 %
median: 11.212 %
TTE: 9.69 %
low: -39.515 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.2 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.886 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -170.485 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -74.259 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 8.634 %
median: 1.349 %
mean: 1.28 %
TTE: 0.886 %
low: -11.931 %
 Free Cash Growth -171.971 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 44.763 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -67.2 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 300.833 %
mean: -7.42 %
median: -24.008 %
TTE: -171.971 %
low: -616.098 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.444
 Cash Flow Margin 18.289 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 3.041
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.92 %
Return On Assets QoQ -31.138 %
Return On Assets YoY -31.649 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.797 %
mean: 1.21 %
median: 0.982 %
TTE: 0.92 %
low: -3.385 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.811 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.023
Return On Equity QoQ -29.433 %
Return On Equity YoY -28.58 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.111
mean: 0.029
median: 0.027
TTE: 0.023
low: -0.087
 DuPont ROE 2.291 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.377 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -4.996 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -108.149 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 6.932 %
mean: 2.645 %
TTE: 2.377 %
median: 2.373 %
low: -4.078 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term bias tilts bullish but within a capped trading range. Technical convergence—MACD crossing above its signal, DI+ dip & reversal, MRO negative with reversal—supports incremental upside toward the mean analyst target band while low ADX indicates weak trend strength, increasing the likelihood of consolidation around current levels. Operational headlines—higher upstream production and materially stronger European refining margins—provide fundamental catalysts that could feed continued momentum if integrated LNG maintenance impacts prove transitory. Balance sheet leverage and below-peer free cash flow yield constrain rapid multiple expansion, anchoring valuation close to fair value. Swing traders should watch momentum confirmation on volume and preservation of the $58.90–$59.00 support cluster; upside follow-through likely requires sustained refining margin strength or clearer free cash flow improvement.

About TotalEnergies SE

TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:TTE) develops and markets a diverse energy portfolio, including oil, biofuels, natural gas, green gases, renewables, and electricity. Headquartered in Courbevoie, France, the company operates globally, with a significant presence in Europe, North America, and Africa. TotalEnergies structures its operations into five key segments: Exploration & Production, Integrated LNG, Integrated Power, Refining & Chemicals, and Marketing & Services. The Exploration & Production segment focuses on discovering and extracting oil and natural gas resources. Integrated LNG handles the entire gas chain, covering liquefied natural gas activities, biogas, hydrogen, and gas trading. Integrated Power oversees electricity generation, storage, trading, and distribution to both business and residential customers. The Refining & Chemicals segment covers refining processes, petrochemicals, and specialty chemicals, along with oil supply, trading, and marine shipping. Marketing & Services distributes and markets petroleum products to various sectors. Founded in 1924, TotalEnergies continues to expand its energy solutions to meet global demands while transitioning towards sustainable energy sources.



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