Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE:SU) Production And Maintenance Activity Point To Near-Term Range-Bound Pressure

Suncor shows operational resilience from higher upstream throughput while short-term technical momentum favors modest selling pressure. Fundamentals present cash generation but margin compression versus peers, and WMDST values the stock as under-valued.

Recent News

On August 27, 2025 the company disclosed planned equipment shutdowns for maintenance at its Montreal refinery, scheduled to last several weeks. On October 7, 2025 RBC Capital Markets named Suncor its favorite integrated oil company ahead of Q3 results and adjusted coverage and targets. Investor’s Business Daily reported a Relative Strength rating upgrade for Suncor in early October 2025, noting improved 52-week price performance metrics.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 20.63 indicates an emerging trend strength and implies technical signals could start to drive near-term directional moves.

Directional indicators show DI- at 27.41 and increasing while DI+ sits at 19.49 and decreasing; that combination signals bearish directional bias and pressure on price relative to recent highs.

MACD stands at -0.30 and the MACD trend shows decreasing momentum while the signal line sits at 0.05; negative, falling MACD implies continuing bearish momentum rather than a bullish crossover.

MRO reads -5.75 with a decreasing trend; the negative oscillator indicates price sits below the model target, implying potential for upward mean reversion even as momentum weakens.

RSI at 49.76 with a decreasing trend places momentum near neutral but fading; that supports a near-term range with downside vulnerability rather than renewed strength.

Price relationships show the close at $39.10 trading below the 12-day EMA ($40.42) and the 20-day average ($40.87) while remaining above the 200-day average ($37.94); short-term moving averages below the price would have signaled strength, but here the price sitting under short-term averages points to near-term resistance and limited upside until those averages roll lower or price reclaims them.

Bollinger bands place the 1x lower band at $39.68 and the 2x lower band at $38.49; the current close sits below the 1x lower band and near the 2x lower band, which increases the probability of mean reversion attempts but does not negate prevailing bearish momentum.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $12,749,000,000 and operating cash flow reached $2,919,000,000; free cash flow equaled $1,211,000,000, producing a free cash flow yield of 2.56% (free cash flow yield QoQ +13.24%, YoY -31.18%).

EBIT came in at $1,602,000,000 with an EBIT margin of 12.57%; margin contracted QoQ by -32.05% and YoY by -25.70%, leaving EBIT margin below the industry peer mean of 17.27% while inside the industry peer range. That margin compression reduces headline profitability versus peer averages even as absolute EBIT remains positive.

Net income amounted to $1,134,000,000 and EPS actual $0.71 versus an estimate of $0.73, producing an EPS surprise of -2.74% (difference -$0.02). Forward EPS stands at $0.79 with a forward P/E of 46.97x while the reported trailing P/E reached 53.86x; the P/B ratio equals 1.06x, below the industry peer mean of 1.56x.

Balance-sheet and liquidity metrics show cash and short-term investments of $2,269,000,000, total debt $14,280,000,000 and net debt $7,673,000,000; debt-to-equity reads 32.03% and interest coverage near 9.54x, supporting debt service capacity while leverage sits below the industry peer mean for debt-to-equity.

Operational efficiency indicators show asset turnover at 0.14299 (slight QoQ decline -3.74% and YoY decline -8.36%), return on equity 2.54% and return on assets 1.27% with QoQ declines exceeding -32% in both metrics; those falls reflect the recent margin compression and temper near-term return improvement expectations.

Cash conversion metrics include a cash conversion cycle of 8.56 days and a cash conversion ratio of 4.58, and the company reduced capital expenditures to $1,708,000,000 with capex-to-revenue at -13.40% (negative sign as provided). Operating leverage registers at 8.03x, consistent with volatility in margins when volumes or prices shift.

Valuation context: WMDST values the stock as under-valued relative to the firm’s cash generation and capital structure, while several multiples (P/E, forward P/E) sit at elevated levels and P/B trades below the industry peer mean. The combination of under-valued classification and mixed multiple signals suggests fundamental value exists but with margin risks and modest growth expectations reflected in multiples.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 2.8 B
 Operating Cash Flow 2.9 B
 Capital Expenditures -1.71 B
 Change In Working Capital 230.0 M
 Dividends Paid -697.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta -504.00 M
 End Period Cash Flow 2.3 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 12.7 B
 Forward Revenue 2.7 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 7.6 B
 Depreciation 1.7 B
 Depreciation and Amortization 1.7 B
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 11.4 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 5.2 B
 EBITDA 3.3 B
 EBIT 1.6 B
 Operating Income 1.4 B
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 168.0 M
 Net Interest Income -168.00 M
 Income Before Tax 1.4 B
 Tax Provision 300.0 M
 Tax Rate 20.9 %
 Net Income 1.1 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 1.1 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.73
 EPS Actual 0.71
 EPS Difference -0.02
 EPS Surprise -2.74 %
 Forward EPS 0.79
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 88.6 B
 Intangible Assets 3.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 41.1 B
 Total Current Assets 13.4 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 2.3 B
 Cash 2.3 B
 Net Receivables 5.3 B
 Inventory 5.2 B
 Long-Term Investments 1.7 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 7.7 B
 Short-Term Debt 1.4 B
 Total Current Liabilities 10.6 B
 Net Debt 7.7 B
 Total Debt 14.3 B
 Total Liabilities 44.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 44.6 B
 Retained Earnings 22.3 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 36.60
 Shares Outstanding 1.218 B
 Revenue Per-Share 10.47
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 47.3 B
 Enterprise Value 59.3 B
 Enterprise Multiple 17.924
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 30.326 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 59.322 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 75.659
mean: 30.537
median: 28.835
SU: 17.924
low: -7.608
 EV/R 4.655
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.988
 Asset To Liability 2.012
 Debt To Capital 0.243
 Debt To Assets 0.161
Debt To Assets QoQ -2.286 %
Debt To Assets YoY 38261.905 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.609
mean: 0.237
median: 0.212
SU: 0.161
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 0.32
Debt To Equity QoQ -2.898 %
Debt To Equity YoY 37584.706 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.807
mean: 0.731
median: 0.533
SU: 0.32
low: 0.002
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.062
Price To Book QoQ 6.365 %
Price To Book YoY -1.444 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 3.756
median: 1.768
mean: 1.56
SU: 1.062
low: 0.005
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 53.864
Price To Earnings QoQ 94.321 %
Price To Earnings YoY 82.032 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 185.623
SU: 53.864
mean: 51.968
median: 48.382
low: -96.671
 PE/G Ratio -1.176
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.713
Price To Sales QoQ 10.583 %
Price To Sales YoY 8.527 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 30.921
mean: 6.09
median: 5.84
SU: 3.713
low: 0.012
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 46.966
Forward PE/G -1.025
Forward P/S 17.505
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 8.032
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.143
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -3.736 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -8.363 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.422
median: 0.165
mean: 0.154
SU: 0.143
low: 0.002
 Receivables Turnover 2.383
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -5.047 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 13.919 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.047
SU: 2.383
mean: 1.933
median: 1.804
low: 0.322
 Inventory Turnover 1.387
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 6.699 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -5.256 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 23.002
mean: 3.332
median: 2.469
SU: 1.387
low: 0.051
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 38.296
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 8.564
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -31.961 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 103.224 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 82.233
SU: 8.564
median: 5.201
mean: 2.23
low: -110.2
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 4.581
 CapEx To Revenue -0.134
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.999
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 53.1 B
 Net Invested Capital 54.5 B
 Invested Capital 54.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 41.1 B
 Net Working Capital 2.8 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.213
 Current Ratio 1.262
Current Ratio QoQ -8.923 %
Current Ratio YoY -13.387 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 5.453
SU: 1.262
median: 1.249
mean: 1.197
low: 0.329
 Quick Ratio 0.77
Quick Ratio QoQ -8.035 %
Quick Ratio YoY -17.291 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 3.791
mean: 0.941
median: 0.919
SU: 0.77
low: 0.247
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 4.313
 Cost Of Debt 0.914 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 9.536
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -32.302 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -24.76 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 22.447
SU: 9.536
mean: 6.916
median: 6.558
low: -20.714
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.305
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 101.141
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.627
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.615
 Dividend Rate 0.57
 Dividend Yield 0.015
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -1.194 %
 Revenue Growth -4.359 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 82.08 %
Revenue Growth YoY -181.798 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 43.755 %
median: -3.744 %
SU: -4.359 %
mean: -5.028 %
low: -35.032 %
 Earnings Growth -45.802 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -1054.208 %
Earnings Growth YoY 361.295 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 122.222 %
median: -21.739 %
mean: -23.259 %
SU: -45.802 %
low: -180.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 40.638 %
Gross Margin QoQ -14.826 %
Gross Margin YoY -5.758 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 82.166 %
SU: 40.638 %
mean: 24.658 %
median: 22.581 %
low: -39.892 %
 EBIT Margin 12.566 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -32.046 %
EBIT Margin YoY -25.698 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 95.08 %
mean: 17.27 %
median: 13.652 %
SU: 12.566 %
low: -39.515 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 10.832 %
Return On Sales QoQ -41.423 %
Return On Sales YoY -35.951 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 90.781 %
mean: 13.964 %
median: 11.212 %
SU: 10.832 %
low: -39.515 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.2 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.558 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 13.236 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -31.181 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 8.634 %
SU: 2.558 %
median: 1.276 %
mean: 1.241 %
low: -11.931 %
 Free Cash Growth 19.782 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -127.776 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -4.582 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 300.833 %
SU: 19.782 %
mean: -17.022 %
median: -24.008 %
low: -616.098 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.068
 Cash Flow Margin 25.429 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.859
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.272 %
Return On Assets QoQ -32.412 %
Return On Assets YoY -27.148 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.797 %
SU: 1.272 %
mean: 1.196 %
median: 0.982 %
low: -3.385 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.054 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.025
Return On Equity QoQ -32.466 %
Return On Equity YoY -27.809 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.111
mean: 0.029
median: 0.027
SU: 0.025
low: -0.087
 DuPont ROE 2.537 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.324 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -29.533 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -103.189 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 6.932 %
mean: 2.638 %
median: 2.373 %
SU: 2.324 %
low: -4.078 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term bias leans toward range-bound to mildly bearish price action. Technical momentum indicators (falling MACD, rising DI-) favor downside pressure while the MRO’s modest negative reading and proximity to the lower Bollinger band leave room for countertrend rebounds. Maintenance activity at the Montreal refinery introduces event-driven volatility and potential operational interruptions to watch for in the coming weeks. Given compressed margins QoQ and YoY alongside positive operating cash flow, the path over the next six weeks likely alternates between attempts to reclaim the $40–$41 short-term moving average area and tests of the lower $38–$39 support corridor, with volatility skewed by announced maintenance and evolving commodity-price signals.

About Suncor Energy Inc.

Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE:SU) develops and produces energy resources as an integrated energy company, primarily in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through several key segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing. The Oil Sands segment explores and extracts bitumen and synthetic crude oil, alongside engaging in oil sands mining activities. In the Exploration and Production segment, Suncor conducts offshore operations on Canada’s East Coast and manages the marketing and risk of crude oil and natural gas. The Refining and Marketing segment refines crude oil and distributes refined and petrochemical products through retail and wholesale networks. This segment also manages the trading of crude oil, refined products, natural gas, and power. Headquartered in Calgary, Canada, Suncor Energy Inc. traces its origins back to 1917 and continues to play a significant role in the energy sector through its diverse operations and strategic resource management.



© 2025 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.