Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) Poised To Sustain Cash Generation Amid Margin Pressure

Exxon Mobil shows resilient cash flow and elevated multiples while margin compression shapes near-term earnings momentum.

Recent News

On August 1, 2025 ExxonMobil announced second-quarter 2025 results that beat estimates, reported record second-quarter Upstream production, declared a $0.99 third-quarter dividend, and reiterated capital-return plans including ongoing share repurchases and cost-savings targets. On October 7–8, 2025 Reuters reported Exxon in advanced discussions to re-enter Iraq and sign an agreement related to the Majnoon oilfield. On October 8, 2025 local reporting indicated Exxon halted its planned $10 billion Texas plastics plant project.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators register ADX 16.47, which signals no established trend; DI+ at 28.42 shows a decreasing trend (bearish) while DI- at 22.87 shows an increasing trend (bearish). These directional readings currently favor sellers despite other momentum signals.

MACD reads 0.69 with a documented dip & reversal and a MACD signal at 0.85; the dip & reversal indicates a shift toward bullish momentum, yet MACD remains below its signal line so the momentum reversal lacks a confirmed crossover.

MRO stands at -7.57 with a dip & reversal; the negative MRO implies price sits below target and therefore carries potential to increase, and the dip & reversal reinforces near-term reversion pressure toward that target.

RSI at 55.44 with a dip & reversal suggests momentum moved up from a recent dip and now sits in the mid-range rather than an overbought zone, supporting modest upside if momentum continues.

Price closed at $114.26, trading above the 20-day average $113.72, 50-day average $110.94, and 200-day average $108.02, indicating short-to-intermediate strength; price sits near the upper Bollinger 1× band ($115.45), which may limit immediate upside without stronger participation.

Volume measured at 11,881,411 lags the 10/50/200-day averages, and the 42-day beta at -0.12 with a 52-week beta of 0.53 indicates subdued market sensitivity and lower realized volatility over those windows.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: EBIT registers $10.85B and EBITDA $16.95B. EBIT margin equals 13.65%, above the industry peer median (12.57%) but below the industry peer mean (17.77%). Margin contraction occurred QoQ at -6.26% and YoY at -11.85%, reflecting pressure on operating leverage and product margins.

Earnings & Cash Flow: Reported EPS reached $1.64 versus an estimate of $1.56, producing an EPS surprise of +5.13%. Operating cash flow stands at $11.55B and free cash flow totals $5.267B, producing a free cash flow yield of 1.14%. Free cash flow yield moved down QoQ by -24.18% but rose YoY by +30.16%.

Balance Sheet & Coverage: Cash on hand measures $14.35B against total debt $38.99B and net debt $24.64B. Debt-to-EBITDA reads 2.30 and interest coverage runs about 74.83×, leaving financial flexibility for ongoing distributions and capital investment.

Growth & Efficiency: Reported total revenue equals $79.48B with revenue growth of -1.95% and a year-over-year figure of -116.38%. Return on equity equals 2.70% and return on assets equals 1.58%, while asset turnover sits at 0.1767. Operating margin stands at 11.21% and contracted QoQ by -23.02% and YoY by -27.60%.

Valuation: Price multiples remain elevated: trailing PE ~66.84, forward PE ~54.72, price-to-book ~1.77, price-to-sales ~5.84, enterprise multiple ~28.83, and an enterprise-value-to-revenue ratio near 6.15. Given the combination of compressed margins, low free cash flow yield, and high multiples, WMDST values the stock as over-valued.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-01
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-31
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 18.5 B
 Operating Cash Flow 11.6 B
 Capital Expenditures -6.28 B
 Change In Working Capital -3.97 B
 Dividends Paid -4.29 B
 Cash Flow Delta -2.80 B
 End Period Cash Flow 15.7 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 79.5 B
 Forward Revenue 23.5 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 61.5 B
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 70.6 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 17.9 B
 EBITDA 17.0 B
 EBIT 10.8 B
 Operating Income 8.9 B
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 145.0 M
 Net Interest Income -145.00 M
 Income Before Tax 10.7 B
 Tax Provision 3.4 B
 Tax Rate 34.0 %
 Net Income 7.1 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 7.4 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.56
 EPS Actual 1.64
 EPS Difference 0.08
 EPS Surprise 5.128 %
 Forward EPS 1.97
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 447.6 B
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 262.6 B
 Total Current Assets 85.1 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 14.4 B
 Cash 14.4 B
 Net Receivables 41.8 B
 Inventory 25.4 B
 Long-Term Investments 21.0 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 59.7 B
 Short-Term Debt 5.4 B
 Total Current Liabilities 68.2 B
 Net Debt 24.6 B
 Total Debt 39.0 B
 Total Liabilities 177.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 262.6 B
 Retained Earnings 477.1 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 61.59
 Shares Outstanding 4.263 B
 Revenue Per-Share 18.64
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 464.1 B
 Enterprise Value 488.8 B
 Enterprise Multiple 28.835
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 2.64 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 19.39 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 75.659
mean: 30.604
XOM: 28.835
median: 26.203
low: -7.608
 EV/R 6.15
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.705
 Asset To Liability 2.52
 Debt To Capital 0.129
 Debt To Assets 0.087
Debt To Assets QoQ 4.838 %
Debt To Assets YoY 506.193 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.609
mean: 0.26
median: 0.256
XOM: 0.087
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 0.148
Debt To Equity QoQ 3.883 %
Debt To Equity YoY 501.865 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.807
mean: 0.818
median: 0.701
XOM: 0.148
low: 0.002
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.768
Price To Book QoQ -1.474 %
Price To Book YoY -4.388 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 3.756
XOM: 1.768
median: 1.764
mean: 1.511
low: 0.005
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 66.836
Price To Earnings QoQ 7.571 %
Price To Earnings YoY 28.068 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 185.623
XOM: 66.836
mean: 49.481
median: 41.739
low: -96.671
 PE/G Ratio -9.803
 Price To Sales (P/S) 5.84
Price To Sales QoQ 0.438 %
Price To Sales YoY 5.911 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 30.921
median: 6.362
mean: 6.091
XOM: 5.84
low: 0.012
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 54.72
Forward PE/G -8.026
Forward P/S 19.723
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 4.148
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.177
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.312 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -17.656 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.422
XOM: 0.177
median: 0.165
mean: 0.149
low: 0.002
 Receivables Turnover 1.804
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -9.196 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -16.348 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.047
mean: 1.966
median: 1.816
XOM: 1.804
low: 0.322
 Inventory Turnover 2.469
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -5.31 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -15.116 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 23.002
mean: 3.458
XOM: 2.469
median: 2.407
low: 0.051
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 50.572
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -3.285
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -137.981 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -69.705 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 82.233
median: 6.538
mean: 3.427
XOM: -3.285
low: -110.2
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 4.69
 CapEx To Revenue -0.079
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 296.2 B
 Net Invested Capital 301.6 B
 Invested Capital 301.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 262.6 B
 Net Working Capital 16.9 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.211
 Current Ratio 1.249
Current Ratio QoQ 1.044 %
Current Ratio YoY -8.189 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 5.453
XOM: 1.249
median: 1.214
mean: 1.19
low: 0.329
 Quick Ratio 0.876
Quick Ratio QoQ -3.071 %
Quick Ratio YoY -13.547 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 3.791
mean: 0.948
median: 0.919
XOM: 0.876
low: 0.247
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 2.3
 Cost Of Debt 0.26 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 74.828
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 29.942 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 45.51 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA XOM: 74.828
high: 22.447
mean: 6.959
median: 6.558
low: -6.198
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.094
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 90.204
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.652
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.605
 Dividend Rate 1.01
 Dividend Yield 0.009
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.954 %
 Revenue Growth -1.95 %
Revenue Growth QoQ
Revenue Growth YoY -116.376 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 43.755 %
XOM: -1.95 %
median: -5.407 %
mean: -5.502 %
low: -35.032 %
 Earnings Growth -6.818 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -226.517 %
Earnings Growth YoY -275.586 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 122.222 %
XOM: -6.818 %
median: -21.739 %
mean: -27.489 %
low: -180.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 22.581 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.982 %
Gross Margin YoY 0.615 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 82.166 %
median: 25.275 %
mean: 25.25 %
XOM: 22.581 %
low: -39.892 %
 EBIT Margin 13.652 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -6.262 %
EBIT Margin YoY -11.849 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 95.08 %
mean: 17.77 %
XOM: 13.652 %
median: 12.566 %
low: -39.515 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 11.212 %
Return On Sales QoQ -23.016 %
Return On Sales YoY -27.604 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 90.781 %
mean: 14.353 %
XOM: 11.212 %
median: 9.193 %
low: -39.515 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 5.3 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.135 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -24.182 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 30.161 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 8.634 %
median: 1.559 %
mean: 1.285 %
XOM: 1.135 %
low: -11.931 %
 Free Cash Growth -25.344 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -182.174 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -53.837 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 300.833 %
median: 0.315 %
mean: -14.258 %
XOM: -25.344 %
low: -616.098 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.744
 Cash Flow Margin 8.1 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.909
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.575 %
Return On Assets QoQ -7.57 %
Return On Assets YoY -28.539 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.797 %
XOM: 1.575 %
mean: 1.128 %
median: 0.927 %
low: -3.385 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.86 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.027
Return On Equity QoQ -8.14 %
Return On Equity YoY -21.667 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.111
mean: 0.029
XOM: 0.027
median: 0.025
low: -0.087
 DuPont ROE 2.696 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.472 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -4.74 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -105.332 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 6.932 %
mean: 2.66 %
XOM: 2.472 %
median: 2.301 %
low: -4.078 %

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum indicators show an early bullish reversion (MACD and MRO dip & reversal, RSI rebound) that can support a push above short-term averages, but directional indicators currently favor sellers and ADX indicates no established trend. Price trading above its 20/50/200-day averages yet near the upper Bollinger band suggests limited immediate upside without a confirmed MACD crossover or an uptick in volume. Expect a range-bound series of moves with potential for modest upside if momentum confirms; failure of momentum to cross the signal line would shift bias back toward seller control and increase downside vulnerability.

About Exxon Mobil Corporation

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) explores and produces crude oil and natural gas both in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four primary segments: Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products. The Upstream segment focuses on the exploration and extraction of crude oil and natural gas. In the Energy Products segment, Exxon Mobil offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, alongside licensing services, marketing its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. Exxon Mobil’s Chemical Products segment manufactures and markets a range of petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment delivers performance products such as lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. Additionally, the company engages in the manufacturing, trading, transportation, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, and petrochemicals. Exxon Mobil also pursues lower-emission business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, and lithium. Founded in 1870, Exxon Mobil Corporation maintains its headquarters in Spring, Texas.



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