The St. Joe Company (NYSE:JOE) Projects Continued Revenue Strength From Hospitality-Led Growth

St. Joe shows momentum in recurring revenues and a stretched but favorable margin profile that points toward continued operational resilience over the coming weeks.

Recent News

On July 23, 2025 the company announced a cash dividend of $0.14 per share payable September 19, 2025 and disclosed the appointment of Elizabeth Dantin Franklin to the Board of Directors on July 22, 2025; the release also reiterated recent capital allocation activity including share repurchases and debt repayments.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 13.81 indicates no strong trend, which implies near-term price action may remain range-bound rather than trending decisively; this reduces the probability that valuation gaps close immediately via a sustained trend.

Directional indicators show DI- higher than DI+ with DI- increasing while DI+ decreases, a configuration that reads bearish for short-term price bias and increases the chance of downside pressure relative to recent valuation levels.

MACD at -0.42 with the MACD line decreasing and sitting below the signal line (-0.17) confirms bearish momentum, signaling that the short-term oscillator favors continued downward pressure on price unless momentum reverses.

MRO at -26.01 indicates price sits below the model target and therefore contains mean-reversion potential; the negative MRO suggests upside pressure exists if fundamentals reassert value, even while momentum indicators remain unfavorable.

RSI at 49.32 and declining signals neutral-to-weak momentum; combined with price trading below the 12‑day and 26‑day EMAs, the setup favors further mean-reversion attempts rather than a decisive breakout.

Price relationships to moving averages and bands tighten into a compressing range: price $47.78 trades below the 12‑day EMA ($49.38), below the 20‑day average ($49.68) and inside the lower Bollinger threshold (lower 1x = $48.41, lower 2x = $47.13), which raises the odds of short-lived oversold bounces without implying trend strength.

Ichimoku components place price beneath the cloud (Senkou A $50.18, Senkou B $48.84) and both Tenkan and Kijun at $50.38, reinforcing resistance in the $50 area and indicating downward bias until price clears those levels.

Volume runs slightly below short- and long-term averages (10‑day avg 175,462; 50‑day avg 219,964; 200‑day avg 247,872), suggesting any directional move will require a pickup in participation to validate a stronger trend.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue $129,082,000 and net income $29,524,000 reflect recent top-line strength; YoY revenue growth stands at 36.49%, a material expansion that supports continued cash generation for operations and distributions.

Gross margin at 42.91% and operating margin at 28.63% indicate healthy profitability on current projects; EBIT margin at 36.78% sits above the industry peer mean (2.62%) and the industry peer median (3.50%), reflecting unusually strong operating leverage relative to peers.

EBIT improved QoQ by 14.54% while year-over-year EBIT margin changed by -0.70%, showing sequential margin improvement despite a near-flat YoY margin comparison.

Cash metrics present a conservative liquidity profile: cash and short-term investments $88,158,000, operating cash flow $31,063,000, free cash flow $22,360,000 and cash ratio 0.883. Cash conversion cycle at -2.68 days points to efficient working-capital dynamics.

Balance-sheet leverage shows total debt $609,742,000 with debt-to-assets 39.38% and debt-to-equity 82.54%; interest coverage about 6.12x and cost of debt roughly 0.95% indicate manageable interest burden, though debt-to-EBITDA at ~10.25 signals elevated leverage relative to cash flow and requires monitoring as capex and development costs continue.

Return metrics remain modest: return on assets ~1.91% and return on equity ~4.00%, but both show strong sequential improvement (ROA QoQ +68.46%, ROE QoQ +66.57%), consistent with recent margin and revenue expansion driving short-term profitability gains.

Market multiples show contrasts: price-to-book ~3.85 sits slightly below the industry peer mean (3.96) and median (4.28), while price-to-sales ~22.05 sits above the industry peer mean (19.31) and median (11.64). Enterprise multiple ~56.64 sits below the industry peer mean (115.56) and median (82.24). WMDST values the stock as under-valued, reflecting the combination of above-peer operating margins and recent revenue momentum against a relatively modest enterprise multiple.

Dividend activity and capital return: declared quarterly dividend $0.14 (yield ~0.29%) with dividend payout ratio ~27.56% and dividend coverage ~3.63x, consistent with capacity to maintain distributions alongside development spending and share repurchases.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-20
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-19
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 101.7 M
 Operating Cash Flow 31.1 M
 Capital Expenditures -8.70 M
 Change In Working Capital -3.44 M
 Dividends Paid -8.14 M
 Cash Flow Delta -4.83 M
 End Period Cash Flow 96.8 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 129.1 M
 Forward Revenue 1.7 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 73.7 M
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 92.1 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 55.4 M
 EBITDA 59.5 M
 EBIT 47.5 M
 Operating Income 37.0 M
 Interest Income 3.2 M
 Interest Expense 7.8 M
 Net Interest Income -4.56 M
 Income Before Tax 39.7 M
 Tax Provision 9.9 M
 Tax Rate 25.0 %
 Net Income 29.5 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 29.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate
 EPS Actual
 EPS Difference
 EPS Surprise
 Forward EPS 0.03
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.5 B
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 738.8 M
 Total Current Assets 150.5 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 88.2 M
 Cash 88.2 M
 Net Receivables 39.6 M
 Inventory 4.3 M
 Long-Term Investments 14.5 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 22.2 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 99.9 M
 Net Debt 517.7 M
 Total Debt 609.7 M
 Total Liabilities 798.5 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 738.8 M
 Retained Earnings 484.9 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 12.74
 Shares Outstanding 57.987 M
 Revenue Per-Share 2.23
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 2.8 B
 Enterprise Value 3.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 56.637
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -29.017 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -6.391 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 238.55
mean: 115.56
median: 82.24
JOE: 56.637
low: -179.209
 EV/R 26.093
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.096
 Asset To Liability 1.939
 Debt To Capital 0.452
 Debt To Assets 0.394
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.39 %
Debt To Assets YoY 12982.724 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.375
JOE: 0.394
mean: 0.252
median: 0.237
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 0.825
Debt To Equity QoQ -2.784 %
Debt To Equity YoY 12424.279 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 5.977
mean: 0.83
JOE: 0.825
median: 0.709
low: -3.247
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 3.853
Price To Book QoQ -1.875 %
Price To Book YoY -16.48 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 7.182
median: 4.285
mean: 3.957
JOE: 3.853
low: -2.853
 Price To Earnings (P/E)
Price To Earnings QoQ
Price To Earnings YoY
Price To Earnings IPRWA
 PE/G Ratio
 Price To Sales (P/S) 22.053
Price To Sales QoQ -27.321 %
Price To Sales YoY -24.662 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 56.407
JOE: 22.053
mean: 19.308
median: 11.644
low: -20.267
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 1660.029
Forward PE/G
Forward P/S 1633.175
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.538
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.083
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 36.593 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 15.371 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.591
mean: 0.197
median: 0.117
JOE: 0.083
low: -0.002
 Receivables Turnover 3.269
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 38.302 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 48.96 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 26.371
mean: 3.512
JOE: 3.269
median: 3.078
low: -0.296
 Inventory Turnover 16.585
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 22.136 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 19.554 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 114.794
JOE: 16.585
mean: 9.591
median: 3.339
low: 0.002
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 27.912
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -2.683
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -145.562 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -159.127 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 131.567
median: 73.999
mean: 51.805
JOE: -2.683
low: -293.768
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 2.55
 CapEx To Revenue -0.067
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.3 B
 Invested Capital 1.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 738.8 M
 Net Working Capital 50.6 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.883
 Current Ratio 1.507
Current Ratio QoQ -2.128 %
Current Ratio YoY 1.806 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 10.81
mean: 2.726
median: 1.741
JOE: 1.507
low: 0.503
 Quick Ratio 1.464
Quick Ratio QoQ -1.924 %
Quick Ratio YoY 1.692 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 10.807
mean: 1.691
JOE: 1.464
median: 1.429
low: 0.161
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 10.253
 Cost Of Debt 0.948 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 6.119
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 57.267 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 26.082 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 21.15
JOE: 6.119
mean: 3.051
median: 1.478
low: -31.139
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.257
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 37.515
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 3.629
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.276
 Dividend Rate 0.14
 Dividend Yield 0.003
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.066 %
 Revenue Growth 37.034 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -481.165 %
Revenue Growth YoY 36.491 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 52.762 %
JOE: 37.034 %
mean: 10.302 %
median: 9.473 %
low: -51.859 %
 Earnings Growth
Earnings Growth QoQ
Earnings Growth YoY
Earnings Growth IPRWA
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 42.909 %
Gross Margin QoQ 13.525 %
Gross Margin YoY -1.404 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 78.523 %
mean: 48.518 %
median: 43.223 %
JOE: 42.909 %
low: -18.975 %
 EBIT Margin 36.785 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 14.541 %
EBIT Margin YoY -0.702 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 53.427 %
JOE: 36.785 %
median: 3.499 %
mean: 2.622 %
low: -48.814 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 28.633 %
Return On Sales QoQ 59.649 %
Return On Sales YoY -22.708 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 31.66 %
JOE: 28.633 %
median: 3.499 %
mean: 2.147 %
low: -49.625 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 22.4 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.785 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -4.268 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 188.603 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 13.37 %
JOE: 0.785 %
mean: 0.21 %
median: 0.01 %
low: -46.283 %
 Free Cash Growth -4.632 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -162.612 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -86.108 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 248.718 %
JOE: -4.632 %
median: -97.213 %
mean: -110.247 %
low: -390.106 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.757
 Cash Flow Margin 19.914 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.871
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.907 %
Return On Assets QoQ 68.463 %
Return On Assets YoY 20.088 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 2.964 %
JOE: 1.907 %
mean: 0.367 %
median: 0.064 %
low: -4.613 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 3.278 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.04
Return On Equity QoQ 66.569 %
Return On Equity YoY 15.425 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.055
JOE: 0.04
mean: 0.011
median: 0.004
low: -0.165
 DuPont ROE 4.026 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.647 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 58.124 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -107.033 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 5.013 %
JOE: 2.647 %
median: 1.721 %
mean: 1.251 %
low: -4.462 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect range-bound action punctuated by short-lived swings: technical indicators favor a bearish tilt while MRO and compressed Bollinger positions leave room for intermittent mean-reversion rallies toward the mid-$40s–$50 area if participation rises. Fundamental momentum—notably 36% YoY revenue growth, improving QoQ margins and positive free cash flow—provides a valuation backstop that should limit downside depth absent a material macro shock. Monitor trend confirmation signals and liquidity metrics for indications that the price will either break below the lower band support near $47 or re-test resistance clustered around $50–$51 without using those observations as trade instructions.

About The St. Joe Company

The St. Joe Company (NYSE:JOE) is a dynamic real estate development and asset management firm headquartered in Panama City Beach, Florida. With a rich history dating back to 1936, St. Joe is a cornerstone of growth in Northwest Florida, focusing on three key segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial. In the Residential segment, St. Joe transforms vast landscapes into vibrant communities, offering homesites to builders and retail customers. Their expertise extends beyond land development to include title insurance and marketing services, ensuring a seamless home-buying experience. The Hospitality segment is a testament to St. Joe’s commitment to leisure and luxury. It encompasses a diverse portfolio of private clubs, golf courses, beach clubs, and marinas, alongside hotel and vacation rental operations. This segment is dedicated to delivering exceptional experiences, from fine dining to beachfront retreats. Commercially, St. Joe is a visionary developer and manager of multi-use properties, including retail spaces, senior living communities, and industrial facilities. Their strategic planning and development efforts cater to a wide array of business needs, fostering economic growth in the region. St. Joe’s holistic approach to real estate, coupled with its dedication to sustainable development, positions it as a leader in shaping the future of Northwest Florida.



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