Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ:JACK) Trims Footprint While Facing Near-Term Sales Pressure

Operational retrenchment and demographic-driven traffic declines point toward compressed near-term sales, even as valuation signals suggest longer-term upside relative to cash-flow metrics.

Recent News

On August 7, 2025 the company reported same-store sales down sharply in the third quarter ended July 6, citing a pullback in spending by Hispanic consumers and a 2.6% sales decline at Del Taco; the CEO linked the trend to demographic-specific uncertainty. In mid-July and through August the brand reopened stores in the Chicago area, launching several company-operated locations as part of a regional expansion.

Technical Analysis

ADX reads 13.52, indicating no established trend; absence of a strong directional trend raises probability of range-bound price action near current levels.

Directional indicators show DI+ at 23.64 with a peak-and-reversal and DI- at 17.42 with a dip-and-reversal; those patterns amount to directional pressure to the downside and weigh on short-term price bias.

MACD sits at 0.11 with the signal at 0.02; the indicator has crossed above its signal line, which qualifies as a short-term bullish signal, while the MACD trend shows a peak-and-reversal, signaling deteriorating momentum that could cap any advance.

MRO equals 9.57 and trends higher; the positive reading implies price sits above the model target and therefore carries a higher probability of downward adjustment than further appreciation in the immediate term.

RSI at 49.1 with a peak-and-reversal indicates momentum has rolled over from recent highs and supports a bearish near-term tone.

Price mechanics remain near short-term averages: closing price $19.19 sits marginally below the 12-day and 20-day EMAs/averages (price12-day EMA $19.51; 20-day avg $19.33; 50-day avg $19.16) and well below the 200-day average $26.64, pointing to longer-term weakness despite short-term consolidation. Price faces support near the super-trend lower band at $17.61 and resistance near the upper Bollinger level at $20.07. Volume at 964,218 trails the 10-day average, suggesting lower conviction behind recent moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $332,987,000 with YoY revenue growth of 19.76% and a QoQ change of -184.50%; the YoY expansion contrasts sharply with the sequential contraction. Operating income $53,436,000 and EBIT $39,882,000 produce an EBIT margin of 11.98%, which declined 22.96% QoQ and fell 142.80% YoY. The EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean of 26.30% and below the peer median of 24.87%, indicating margin structure lags core competitors despite positive top-line growth year-over-year.

Net income reached $22,027,000 while EPS came in at $1.02 versus an estimate of $1.17, producing an EPS surprise of -12.82%. PE ratio stands at 21.64x with forward PE of 14.14x; forward EPS equals $1.64. Price-to-sales registers at 1.16x, down QoQ and YoY, reflecting revenue pressures against market capitalization of $387,855,125 and enterprise value of $3,480,459,125.

Cash flow shows operating cash flow of $59,736,000 and free cash flow $37,212,000, producing a free-cash-flow yield of 9.59%, which sits above the industry peer mean of roughly 0.99%. Free cash flow declined YoY, however, and free-cash-growth indicates contraction versus prior periods.

Balance sheet leverage presents material risk: total debt $3,130,618,000, net debt $1,672,224,000, and debt-to-EBITDA ~59.31x. Interest coverage equals 2.17x and total equity reads negative $951,621,000, reflecting a capital structure with elevated leverage that constrains flexibility despite operating cash generation.

Book value per share reads negative at -$50.40 and the price-to-book ratio shows negative value; negative tangible equity limits traditional asset-based cushions. WMDST values the stock as under-valued, driven largely by a relatively high free-cash-flow yield and a forward PE materially lower than current PE, while acknowledging leverage and compressed margins.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-06
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-05
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 45.6 M
 Operating Cash Flow 59.7 M
 Capital Expenditures -22.52 M
 Change In Working Capital 21.1 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 22.5 M
 End Period Cash Flow 68.1 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 333.0 M
 Forward Revenue 116.9 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 238.2 M
 Depreciation 12.8 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 12.8 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 279.6 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 94.8 M
 EBITDA 52.8 M
 EBIT 39.9 M
 Operating Income 53.4 M
 Interest Income 436.0 K
 Interest Expense 18.4 M
 Net Interest Income -17.93 M
 Income Before Tax 21.5 M
 Tax Provision -506.00 K
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income 22.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 22.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.17
 EPS Actual 1.02
 EPS Difference -0.15
 EPS Surprise -12.821 %
 Forward EPS 1.64
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.6 B
 Intangible Assets 251.7 M
 Net Tangible Assets -1.20 B
 Total Current Assets 200.4 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 38.0 M
 Cash 38.0 M
 Net Receivables 86.1 M
 Inventory 3.7 M
 Long-Term Investments 169.8 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 57.3 M
 Short-Term Debt 29.4 M
 Total Current Liabilities 432.9 M
 Net Debt 1.7 B
 Total Debt 3.1 B
 Total Liabilities 3.5 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity -951.62 M
 Retained Earnings 1.8 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share -50.40
 Shares Outstanding 18.882 M
 Revenue Per-Share 17.63
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 387.9 M
 Enterprise Value 3.5 B
 Enterprise Multiple 65.943
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 716.589 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -663.093 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 115.782
mean: 73.832
median: 71.611
JACK: 65.943
low: -56.203
 EV/R 10.452
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity -2.728
 Asset To Liability 0.732
 Debt To Capital 1.437
 Debt To Assets 1.206
Debt To Assets QoQ 11149.067 %
Debt To Assets YoY 10932.937 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.647
JACK: 1.206
median: 0.724
mean: 0.699
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity -3.29
Debt To Equity QoQ 9053.506 %
Debt To Equity YoY 9174.796 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 10.498
median: -1.551
JACK: -3.29
mean: -4.613
low: -20.242
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) -0.408
Price To Book QoQ -56.9 %
Price To Book YoY -66.806 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 19.124
median: 3.747
mean: -0.313
JACK: -0.408
low: -25.016
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 21.635
Price To Earnings QoQ 0.116 %
Price To Earnings YoY -34.26 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 289.09
mean: 101.246
median: 95.392
JACK: 21.635
low: -27.296
 PE/G Ratio -0.19
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1.165
Price To Sales QoQ -30.092 %
Price To Sales YoY -58.595 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 31.824
mean: 18.343
median: 16.293
JACK: 1.165
low: 0.286
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 14.145
Forward PE/G -0.124
Forward P/S 3.319
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.56
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.124
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -5.393 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.621
mean: 0.199
median: 0.147
JACK: 0.124
low: 0.02
 Receivables Turnover 4.517
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -16.755 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 42.739
mean: 8.262
JACK: 4.517
median: 4.375
low: 0.692
 Inventory Turnover 62.711
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 3.473 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 63.048
JACK: 62.711
median: 54.358
mean: 37.367
low: 0.492
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 20.201
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 3.429
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -506.385 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 60.416
median: 4.8
JACK: 3.429
mean: 2.173
low: -59.918
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -1.432
 CapEx To Revenue -0.068
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.754
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 729.2 M
 Net Invested Capital 758.6 M
 Invested Capital 758.6 M
 Net Tangible Assets -1.20 B
 Net Working Capital -232.51 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.088
 Current Ratio 0.463
Current Ratio QoQ -7.697 %
Current Ratio YoY 7.24 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.698
mean: 1.018
median: 1.012
JACK: 0.463
low: 0.137
 Quick Ratio 0.454
Quick Ratio QoQ -7.759 %
Quick Ratio YoY 7.604 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.654
median: 1.178
mean: 1.042
JACK: 0.454
low: 0.106
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 59.314
 Cost Of Debt 0.46 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 2.172
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -25.635 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -139.737 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 46.029
mean: 9.013
median: 6.755
JACK: 2.172
low: -26.646
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.004
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 17.842
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -6.41 %
 Revenue Growth -29.067 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -184.502 %
Revenue Growth YoY 19.755 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 52.655 %
median: 14.912 %
mean: 13.69 %
JACK: -29.067 %
low: -34.396 %
 Earnings Growth -113.655 %
Earnings Growth QoQ
Earnings Growth YoY -973.329 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 214.286 %
mean: 24.453 %
median: 19.476 %
JACK: -113.655 %
low: -246.809 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 28.463 %
Gross Margin QoQ -8.068 %
Gross Margin YoY -4.781 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 82.429 %
mean: 42.119 %
median: 41.612 %
JACK: 28.463 %
low: -15.915 %
 EBIT Margin 11.977 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -22.963 %
EBIT Margin YoY -142.796 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 47.508 %
mean: 26.302 %
median: 24.865 %
JACK: 11.977 %
low: -41.862 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 16.047 %
Return On Sales QoQ 3.216 %
Return On Sales YoY -157.339 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 47.655 %
mean: 25.702 %
median: 24.801 %
JACK: 16.047 %
low: -15.426 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 37.2 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 9.594 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 6.352 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 384.057 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA JACK: 9.594 %
high: 7.323 %
mean: 0.994 %
median: 0.675 %
low: -3.222 %
 Free Cash Growth -47.26 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ
Free Cash Growth YoY -64.592 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 178.828 %
median: -33.191 %
JACK: -47.26 %
mean: -61.991 %
low: -447.422 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.689
 Cash Flow Margin -0.52 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.079
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.01
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.82 %
Return On Assets QoQ
Return On Assets YoY -118.881 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.107 %
mean: 2.937 %
median: 2.755 %
JACK: 0.82 %
low: -4.298 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.844 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.023
Return On Equity QoQ -43.162 %
Return On Equity YoY -116.011 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.488
median: 0.037
mean: 0.011
JACK: -0.023
low: -0.628
 DuPont ROE -2.477 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 4.153 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -103.669 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -100.425 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 16.565 %
mean: 7.208 %
median: 6.805 %
JACK: 4.153 %
low: -8.237 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term price bias appears cautiously bearish-to-range-bound. Technical pressure from directional indicators and RSI peak reversals plus a positive MRO signal that price sits above modeled targets create a higher probability of sideways-to-downward moves first. Multiple short-term averages cluster near the current price and the super-trend support at $17.61 offers a visible downside reference; a relief bounce could follow given the WMDST under-valued assessment and above-average free-cash-flow yield, but momentum readings and elevated leverage suggest any rally may face resistance and limited conviction over the six-week horizon.

About Jack in the Box Inc.

Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ:JACK) develops a prominent presence in the American quick-service restaurant sector, known for its diverse and innovative menu. Founded in 1951 and based in San Diego, California, the company manages and franchises a wide array of restaurants under the Jack in the Box brand. The menu features an eclectic mix, including burgers, tacos, breakfast items, and unique sides, appealing to a broad spectrum of customer tastes. In addition to its primary brand, Jack in the Box Inc. owns Del Taco, which expands its reach in the quick-service market. Del Taco offers freshly prepared Mexican cuisine alongside American favorites, providing a complementary dining experience to the Jack in the Box offerings. The company prioritizes quality and customer satisfaction, continuously adapting to new trends and technologies to enhance the dining experience. Through strategic growth initiatives and a strong franchise model, Jack in the Box Inc. positions itself as a key player in the fast-food industry, delivering convenient and delicious meal options throughout the United States.



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