Vital Energy, Inc. (NYSE:VTLE) Agrees To Crescent Takeover, Immediate Scale And Cash‑Flow Focus

Acquisition chatter has shifted the company’s immediate trajectory toward consolidation and a sharpened cash‑flow focus; balance‑sheet repair stands as the near‑term priority.

Recent News

On August 25, 2025 Crescent Energy announced an all‑stock acquisition of Vital Energy valuing the transaction at $3.1 billion including debt, offering 1.9062 Crescent shares per Vital share (about $18.95 per share).

On July 9, 2025 a major shareholder completed an insider sale of Vital shares, disclosed in subsequent filings that appeared in market commentary in September.

In July 2025 the company closed a non‑core asset sale of roughly 3,800 net acres for $6.5 million as part of ongoing portfolio pruning.

Technical Analysis

Trend Strength: ADX registers at 19.26, signaling no dominant trend; that reduces conviction for a strong directional move even as merger news changes fundamentals.

Directional Indicators: DI+ sits at 30.81 with a peak‑and‑reversal pattern, which reads as bearish; DI‑ stands at 19.78 and shows a dip‑and‑reversal, which also reads as bearish. The combination indicates downward directional pressure despite low overall trend strength.

MACD: MACD equals 0.17 while the signal line stands at 0.07, so MACD currently trades above its signal line (a bullish cross). The MACD trend shows a peak‑and‑reversal, which signals weakening momentum and conflicts with the short‑term bullish cross; expect momentum ambiguity near term.

MRO: MRO at -16.28 indicates price below the model target, implying potential upward pressure toward the target; the MRO shows a dip‑and‑reversal pattern that supports a probable rebound toward fair‑value bands.

RSI and Price Structure: RSI at 50.06 with a peak‑and‑reversal pattern reads as a loss of recent upside momentum. Price closed at $16.89, slightly above the 20‑day average ($16.84) but below the 12‑day EMA ($17.07) and well below the 200‑day average ($21.25), so short‑term averages flirt with support while longer‑term trend stays lower than the moving average structure.

Ichimoku & Bollinger Context: Tenkan at $17.21 and Kijun at $16.41 place the price between the faster and baseline lines; Senkou A at $16.75 and Senkou B at $18.09 form a cloud that the price straddles, suggesting local congestion. Bollinger bands span roughly $15.89–$18.72 (2×), placing current price near the lower half of the band and indicating limited intraday volatility relative to the wider 52‑week range.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability And Margins: Reported EBIT equals -$293,548,000 and EBITDA equals -$107,124,000, producing an EBIT margin of -68.33%. That margin sits well below the industry peer mean of 33.73% and the industry peer median of 33.65%, indicating material operating losses on a GAAP basis despite operating improvements elsewhere.

Earnings Per Share: Reported EPS registered at $2.02 versus an estimate of $1.77, producing an EPS surprise ratio of 14.12%. Forward EPS stands at $1.99 and forward PE reads roughly 9.29, while trailing PE registers at 8.94.

Revenue And Growth: Total revenue reached $429,627,000 with YoY revenue growth of 12.03% and QoQ growth of 2.88%, showing top‑line expansion despite negative GAAP earnings. Gross margin equals 24.14% but trails the industry peer mean of 52.47%.

Cash Flow And CapEx: Operating cash flow totals $252,341,000 while free cash flow records a negative $9,438,000 and free cash flow yield at -1.37%. Capital expenditures measured $261,779,000, producing a cap‑ex‑to‑revenue ratio of -60.93%, which drove negative free cash flow in the period.

Leverage And Liquidity: Market capitalization sits at $689,568,198 while net debt measures $2,291,100,000, creating high net‑debt leverage pressure. Current ratio registers at 0.79 (industry peer mean ~1.44), and debt‑to‑equity equals 1.137. Interest coverage shows -5.89, signaling limited capacity to service interest on a GAAP basis.

Operational Efficiency & Returns: Asset turnover equals 0.079, and return on equity equals -27.67% with return on assets at -10.78%, both registering negative returns and pointing to capital deployment that has not yet translated into positive GAAP profitability.

Valuation Note: WMDST values the stock as over‑valued given current leverage, negative EBIT margins, and the balance between adjusted operating cash generation and substantial non‑cash charges.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-06
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-10
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 28.6 M
 Operating Cash Flow 252.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -261.78 M
 Change In Working Capital -40.77 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 1.5 M
 End Period Cash Flow 30.2 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 429.6 M
 Forward Revenue -14.19 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 325.9 M
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 362.6 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 103.7 M
 EBITDA -107.12 M
 EBIT -293.55 M
 Operating Income 67.0 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 49.9 M
 Net Interest Income -49.85 M
 Income Before Tax -343.40 M
 Tax Provision 239.2 M
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income -582.57 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -582.57 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.77
 EPS Actual 2.02
 EPS Difference 0.25
 EPS Surprise 14.124 %
 Forward EPS 1.99
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 5.1 B
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 2.1 B
 Total Current Assets 430.4 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 30.2 M
 Cash 30.2 M
 Net Receivables 243.0 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 32.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 158.1 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 545.5 M
 Net Debt 2.3 B
 Total Debt 2.4 B
 Total Liabilities 3.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 2.1 B
 Retained Earnings -1.72 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 54.43
 Shares Outstanding 38.688 M
 Revenue Per-Share 11.11
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 689.6 M
 Enterprise Value 3.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple -28.513
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -276.537 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -510.121 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 116.188
mean: 29.072
median: 22.553
low: -5.244
VTLE: -28.513
 EV/R 7.109
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.422
 Asset To Liability 1.703
 Debt To Capital 0.532
 Debt To Assets 0.47
Debt To Assets QoQ 11.707 %
Debt To Assets YoY 1470.468 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA VTLE: 0.47
high: 0.464
mean: 0.156
median: 0.099
low: 0.003
 Debt To Equity 1.137
Debt To Equity QoQ 27.089 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1950.216 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.386
VTLE: 1.137
mean: 0.305
median: 0.157
low: -0.274
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.328
Price To Book QoQ -26.012 %
Price To Book YoY -46.046 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 40.027
median: 2.223
mean: 2.082
VTLE: 0.328
low: -0.64
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 8.944
Price To Earnings QoQ -30.905 %
Price To Earnings YoY -71.047 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 164.776
mean: 55.562
median: 50.88
low: 20.079
VTLE: 8.944
 PE/G Ratio -0.606
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1.605
Price To Sales QoQ -30.766 %
Price To Sales YoY -55.583 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 47.131
median: 12.14
mean: 11.465
low: 3.687
VTLE: 1.605
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 9.292
Forward PE/G -0.629
Forward P/S -48.581
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 65.929
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.079
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -10.081 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -8.875 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.179
median: 0.115
mean: 0.106
VTLE: 0.079
low: 0.002
 Receivables Turnover 1.728
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -22.057 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -6.538 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.676
median: 2.09
mean: 2.004
VTLE: 1.728
low: 1.041
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 52.812
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -3.734
 CapEx To Revenue -0.609
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 4.4 B
 Net Invested Capital 4.4 B
 Invested Capital 4.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 2.1 B
 Net Working Capital -115.07 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.055
 Current Ratio 0.789
Current Ratio QoQ 17.446 %
Current Ratio YoY 55.883 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 6.346
median: 1.786
mean: 1.443
VTLE: 0.789
low: 0.065
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -22.357
 Cost Of Debt 1.642 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -5.888
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -1072.798 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -372.877 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 126.768
median: 35.333
mean: 25.699
VTLE: -5.888
low: -50.859
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -1.057
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 43.999
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -10.698 %
 Revenue Growth -16.118 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 288.105 %
Revenue Growth YoY 1202.991 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 12.94 %
median: -8.336 %
mean: -8.97 %
VTLE: -16.118 %
low: -36.994 %
 Earnings Growth -14.768 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -668.656 %
Earnings Growth YoY -28.491 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 144.444 %
mean: -14.213 %
VTLE: -14.768 %
median: -19.164 %
low: -55.693 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 24.141 %
Gross Margin QoQ -30.852 %
Gross Margin YoY -26.359 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 80.13 %
median: 64.444 %
mean: 52.473 %
VTLE: 24.141 %
low: 14.551 %
 EBIT Margin -68.326 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -1247.565 %
EBIT Margin YoY -470.712 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 114.608 %
mean: 33.735 %
median: 33.651 %
low: -26.843 %
VTLE: -68.326 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 15.598 %
Return On Sales QoQ 161.975 %
Return On Sales YoY -15.371 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 93.565 %
median: 31.354 %
mean: 28.672 %
VTLE: 15.598 %
low: 4.668 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -9.44 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -1.369 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -113.785 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -121.104 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.604 %
mean: 0.974 %
median: 0.368 %
VTLE: -1.369 %
low: -7.353 %
 Free Cash Growth -108.004 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -99.652 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -68.371 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 28.866 %
mean: -61.66 %
median: -70.347 %
VTLE: -108.004 %
low: -203.311 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.016
 Cash Flow Margin -134.168 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.989
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) -10.776 %
Return On Assets QoQ 3215.692 %
Return On Assets YoY -1703.571 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 22.476 %
median: 2.884 %
mean: 2.425 %
VTLE: -10.776 %
low: -11.591 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -6.445 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.277
Return On Equity QoQ 3841.311 %
Return On Equity YoY -2238.176 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.109
median: 0.046
mean: 0.039
low: -0.233
VTLE: -0.277
 DuPont ROE -24.333 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -5.239 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -1004.836 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -107.718 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.04 %
median: 4.145 %
mean: 3.612 %
VTLE: -5.239 %
low: -9.134 %

Six-Week Outlook

Merger headlines provide the primary catalyst for near‑term price direction; completion or clear financing steps likely produce episodic rallies, while any setback in deal approval will amplify downward pressure. Technical indicators present mixed signals: directional indicators and MACD trend skew bearish, but a bullish MACD cross and negative MRO signal (price below model target) leave room for short covering or mean reversion. Expect constrained range trading near $16.00–$18.75 until definitive merger milestones arrive or cash‑flow headlines force a re‑rating.

Monitor: merger progress, announced synergy capture or asset‑sale proceeds, and updates to net‑debt reduction plans—those items will drive short‑term directional bias for swing positions without offering discrete trade recommendations.

About Vital Energy, Inc.

Vital Energy, Inc. (NYSE:VTLE) acquires, explores, and develops oil and natural gas properties within the Permian Basin, located in West Texas, USA. Founded in 2006 and headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, the company originally operated under the name Laredo Petroleum, Inc. before rebranding to Vital Energy, Inc. in January 2023. Vital Energy concentrates on leveraging its expertise in the energy sector to optimize the extraction and production of hydrocarbons. The company strategically manages its assets to enhance operational efficiency and maximize resource recovery. By focusing on the Permian Basin, Vital Energy taps into one of the most prolific oil and gas regions in the United States, seeking to deliver sustainable energy solutions while maintaining a commitment to safety and environmental stewardship.



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