Watsco, Inc. (NYSE:WSO) Signals Near-Term Rebound Amid Overvalued Valuation

Technical momentum and mean-reversion signals point toward a short-term recovery in price action while valuation metrics indicate the stock trades rich relative to fundamentals. The picture mixes trend strength with valuation headwinds.

Recent News

On July 1, 2025 the company announced a quarterly dividend of $3.00 per share with a record date of July 16 and payment on July 31, 2025; several outlets reported analyst consensus at a “Hold” following recent results.

Technical Analysis

ADX / DI+ / DI-: ADX sits at 25.08, indicating a strong trend environment in force; DI+ at 16.41 shows an increasing trend while DI- at 23.26 shows a decreasing trend, a configuration that favors bullish directional pressure and supports the case for continued upside attempts versus resistance levels.

MACD: MACD at -6.23 with a rising MACD_trend and a MACD signal at -8.39 indicates a bullish momentum shift, with MACD above its signal line — a constructive crossover that supports near-term positive price momentum.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at -29.32 reads negative, which signals the price below the model target and therefore implies potential for price appreciation toward that target as momentum normalizes; the MRO_trend shows a dip & reversal.

RSI: RSI at 44.19 and increasing denotes room to run without overbought conditions and aligns with the MACD crossover for near-term upside potential.

Price Structure & Moving Averages: Price closed at $399.57, above the 12-day EMA of $394.74 (price12dayEMA trend: dip & reversal) and above the 20-day average of $391.55, yet below the 50-day average of $417.90 and the 200-day average of $459.83. That stacking implies short-term bullish bias inside longer-term resistance bands; immediate resistance appears near the super trend upper at $412.04 and the Ichimoku Kijun-sen at $402.80, while the lower Bollinger band near $385.60 anchors short-term support.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue & Growth: Total revenue equals $2,062,442,000. YoY revenue growth reads -5.433% while an alternative revenue growth figure shows 34.705%; YoY compares directly to the recent twelve-month change and indicates a contraction year-over-year.

Profitability: EBIT totals $271,869,000 and EBITDA totals $282,779,000. EBIT margin stands at 13.18%, below the industry peer mean of 17.13% and below the industry peer median of 19.70%, indicating margins lag the typical peer profile despite positive absolute profitability.

Returns: Return on equity registers 6.65% and return on assets 3.999%, both positive but modest relative to capital employed; return on invested capital equals 7.515%.

Earnings Per Share: Reported EPS reached $4.52 versus an estimate of $4.79, yielding an EPS surprise ratio of -5.64%, a shortfall that trimmed near-term fundamental momentum.

Cash Flow & Liquidity: Operating cash flow reads -$7,446,000 with free cash flow at -$14,283,000 and a free cash flow yield of -0.081%, signaling negative free cash generation in the period reported. Current ratio sits at 3.08 and quick ratio at 1.26, indicating ample near-term liquidity; cash on hand equals $292,978,000.

Capital Structure & Coverage: Total debt equals $454,086,000 with debt to EBITDA at 1.61 and interest coverage at 19.21, reflecting a conservative leverage profile and strong earnings coverage of interest expense.

Dividends: Dividend rate stands at $2.998 per share with a dividend payout ratio of 66.15% and dividend coverage ratio of 1.51, showing continued shareholder distributions funded by earnings but with a meaningful share of earnings allocated to dividends.

Valuation: WMDST values the stock as over-valued. Market multiples show a trailing P/E of 102.37 and a price-to-sales ratio of 8.60; enterprise multiple reads 63.29 while EV/Revenue and other forward multiples sit elevated, supporting the over-valued designation when juxtaposed with cash-generation metrics and the EPS shortfall.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-27
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 431.8 M
 Operating Cash Flow -7.45 M
 Capital Expenditures -6.84 M
 Change In Working Capital -238.90 M
 Dividends Paid -121.46 M
 Cash Flow Delta -138.84 M
 End Period Cash Flow 293.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 2.1 B
 Forward Revenue 422.7 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.5 B
 Depreciation 10.9 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 10.9 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 1.8 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 603.5 M
 EBITDA 282.8 M
 EBIT 271.9 M
 Operating Income 271.9 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income 2.3 M
 Income Before Tax 274.2 M
 Tax Provision 57.4 M
 Tax Rate 23.7 %
 Net Income 183.6 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 216.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 4.79
 EPS Actual 4.52
 EPS Difference -0.27
 EPS Surprise -5.637 %
 Forward EPS 3.71
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 4.7 B
 Intangible Assets 676.0 M
 Net Tangible Assets 2.1 B
 Total Current Assets 3.3 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 293.0 M
 Cash 293.0 M
 Net Receivables 1.0 B
 Inventory 2.0 B
 Long-Term Investments 12.8 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 678.1 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 1.1 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 454.1 M
 Total Liabilities 1.5 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 2.8 B
 Retained Earnings 1.3 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 68.14
 Shares Outstanding 40.547 M
 Revenue Per-Share 50.91
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 17.7 B
 Enterprise Value 17.9 B
 Enterprise Multiple 63.29
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -62.937 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -5.26 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 92.879
median: 73.147
WSO: 63.29
mean: 63.163
low: -46.201
 EV/R 8.678
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.713
 Asset To Liability 3.137
 Debt To Capital 0.141
 Debt To Assets 0.096
Debt To Assets QoQ -6.967 %
Debt To Assets YoY 102.084 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.779
mean: 0.316
median: 0.237
WSO: 0.096
low: 0.004
 Debt To Equity 0.165
Debt To Equity QoQ -4.632 %
Debt To Equity YoY 105.676 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.878
median: 0.589
mean: 0.505
WSO: 0.165
low: -1.514
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 6.425
Price To Book QoQ -14.774 %
Price To Book YoY -10.971 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 12.098
WSO: 6.425
mean: 5.498
median: 4.543
low: -6.669
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 102.365
Price To Earnings QoQ -60.196 %
Price To Earnings YoY -1.6 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 117.491
WSO: 102.365
median: 96.149
mean: 84.883
low: -8.714
 PE/G Ratio 0.763
 Price To Sales (P/S) 8.6
Price To Sales QoQ -34.467 %
Price To Sales YoY -2.361 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 21.617
mean: 12.175
median: 11.487
WSO: 8.6
low: 0.537
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 123.531
Forward PE/G 0.921
Forward P/S 41.995
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 4.437
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.449
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 31.036 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -8.123 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA WSO: 0.449
high: 0.445
median: 0.277
mean: 0.256
low: 0.091
 Receivables Turnover 2.279
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 24.449 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -2.348 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.278
WSO: 2.279
median: 1.699
mean: 1.687
low: 0.99
 Inventory Turnover 0.783
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 12.302 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -18.99 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.767
median: 1.565
mean: 1.5
WSO: 0.783
low: 0.243
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 40.042
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 143.815
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 14.838 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 21.225 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 214.806
WSO: 143.815
mean: 70.61
median: 51.448
low: 32.111
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.925
 CapEx To Revenue -0.003
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.627
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 2.8 B
 Net Invested Capital 2.8 B
 Invested Capital 2.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets 2.1 B
 Net Working Capital 2.2 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.274
 Current Ratio 3.081
Current Ratio QoQ -6.088 %
Current Ratio YoY -4.025 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 6.644
WSO: 3.081
mean: 1.743
median: 1.413
low: 0.654
 Quick Ratio 1.258
Quick Ratio QoQ -7.602 %
Quick Ratio YoY -18.63 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 4.792
WSO: 1.258
mean: 1.204
median: 0.811
low: 0.631
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 1.606
 Cost Of Debt 2.364 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 19.205
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 153.983 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -82.353 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 88.789
mean: 20.604
WSO: 19.205
median: 15.538
low: -29.75
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.066
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 50.688
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.512
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.661
 Dividend Rate 3.00
 Dividend Yield 0.007
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 6.177 %
 Revenue Growth 34.705 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -373.117 %
Revenue Growth YoY -5.433 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 39.931 %
WSO: 34.705 %
mean: 14.218 %
median: 13.799 %
low: -19.532 %
 Earnings Growth 134.197 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -822.849 %
Earnings Growth YoY 25.521 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 140.0 %
WSO: 134.197 %
mean: 32.922 %
median: 30.38 %
low: -76.471 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 29.261 %
Gross Margin QoQ 4.28 %
Gross Margin YoY 7.974 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 60.419 %
median: 37.437 %
mean: 36.825 %
WSO: 29.261 %
low: 17.039 %
 EBIT Margin 13.182 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 88.557 %
EBIT Margin YoY 4.91 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 29.18 %
median: 19.698 %
mean: 17.132 %
WSO: 13.182 %
low: -36.747 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 13.182 %
Return On Sales QoQ 88.557 %
Return On Sales YoY 4.91 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 26.405 %
median: 20.039 %
mean: 18.013 %
WSO: 13.182 %
low: -10.496 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -14.28 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.081 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -91.215 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -129.779 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.902 %
mean: 1.205 %
median: 1.196 %
WSO: -0.081 %
low: -5.145 %
 Free Cash Growth -92.287 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -38.448 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 94.043 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 679.814 %
median: 78.416 %
mean: 68.758 %
WSO: -92.287 %
low: -585.354 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.078
 Cash Flow Margin -3.448 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.387
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 3.999 %
Return On Assets QoQ 123.158 %
Return On Assets YoY -3.522 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.811 %
WSO: 3.999 %
median: 3.627 %
mean: 3.374 %
low: -5.422 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 7.431 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.067
Return On Equity QoQ 121.438 %
Return On Equity YoY -4.26 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.308
mean: 0.07
WSO: 0.067
median: 0.053
low: -0.074
 DuPont ROE 6.769 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 7.515 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 132.735 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -107.979 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 18.644 %
WSO: 7.515 %
mean: 6.48 %
median: 6.143 %
low: -6.648 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical alignment favors a mean-reversion rally over the next six weeks: the MACD crossover, rising RSI from mid-range, and DI+ increase create short-term bullish momentum, while a negative MRO implies upside potential toward model targets. Price already trades above short-term averages and will likely test resistance around the Ichimoku Kijun-sen near $402.80 and the super trend upper at $412.04; failure to clear those levels would keep the trade range-bound against the 50-day and 200-day averages above current price.

Fundamental context tempers the outlook. Elevated valuation multiples, negative free cash flow, and an EPS shortfall reduce the margin of safety for extended gains; the dividend remains in place but represents a substantial payout ratio. The near-term technical setup supports a rebound attempt, but sustained outperformance requires re-acceleration in cash generation or margin expansion to justify current multiples.

About Watsco, Inc.

Watsco, Inc. (NYSE:WSO) distributes a broad range of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment along with related components and supplies. Headquartered in Miami, Florida, Watsco serves both the United States and international markets. The company delivers residential and commercial air conditioning systems, including ducted and ductless units, as well as gas, electric, and oil furnaces. In addition to equipment, Watsco provides essential parts such as compressors, evaporator coils, and motors. The company also supplies various materials and tools, including thermostats, insulation, refrigerants, ductwork, and sheet metal, to support HVAC installations and maintenance. Watsco caters to contractors and dealers who operate within the replacement and new construction sectors for residential and light commercial HVAC systems. Since its incorporation in 1956, Watsco has established itself as a key player in the HVAC distribution industry, offering comprehensive solutions to meet the needs of its customers.



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