Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE:AJG) Posts Near-Term Momentum Despite Overvalued Valuation

Momentum indicators show short-term pickup while fundamental measures and WMDST valuation flag elevated market multiples. Expect price action driven by technical strength but constrained by stretched valuation metrics.

Recent News

On July 30, 2025 the company declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.65 per share payable on September 19, 2025. On August 18, 2025 Arthur J. Gallagher completed the acquisition of AssuredPartners for approximately $13.45 billion, and management announced additional targeted acquisitions to expand international and niche-market coverage, including smaller deals to broaden West Coast and specialty capabilities.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 14.75 signals no strong underlying trend; the market lacks a defining directional strength even as shorter-term indicators move bullish.

DI+ sits at 22.89 and shows an increasing trend while DI- measures 21.83 and trends downward, a configuration that signals bullish directional pressure over the short term.

MACD at 0.72, increasing, sits above a -0.28 signal line; the MACD crossover above its signal line indicates rising bullish momentum in the near-term price structure.

MRO reads -8.71 with an increasing trend, implying the present price sits below the model target and carries potential to move higher as that oscillator normalizes.

RSI at 48.88 with an increasing trend registers neutral-to-slightly constructive momentum rather than overbought conditions; room exists for continuation without immediate exhaustion.

Price sits at $304.15, above the 20-day average ($298.26) and 50-day average ($297.71) but below the 200-day average ($311.91). The 12-day EMA (300.41) lies above the 26-day EMA (299.33), reinforcing the short-term bullish tilt while the 200-day average represents a nearer-term cap.

Bollinger proximity places the close slightly above the 1× standard deviation upper band ($303.91), suggesting short-term strength but not extreme dispersion; SuperTrend lower at $293.85 provides a technical support reference. Recent volume runs below 10-, 50- and 200-day averages, which reduces conviction behind moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $3,220,800,000 with YoY revenue growth of -8.04% and QoQ revenue change of -136.50%, indicating top-line contraction on both yearly and sequential bases. Gross profit measured $1,374,500,000 and gross margin at 42.676% improved YoY by 6.141 percentage points, while gross margin QoQ fell by 11.169%.

Operating income stood at $624,400,000 and EBIT at $630,000,000. EBIT margin equals 19.56%, up 18.04% YoY but down 29.29% QoQ; that margin sits below the industry peer mean of 24.061% and below the industry peer median of 27.086%.

Net income from continuing operations reached $366,200,000. Reported EPS of $2.33 missed the estimate of $2.34 by $0.01, an EPS surprise of -0.43%.

Balance-sheet and cash metrics show $14,299,500,000 in cash and short-term investments but operating cash flow of -$426,100,000 and free cash flow of -$465,500,000, producing a negative free-cash-flow yield of -0.59%. Cash conversion ratio registers 21.05% while cash flow to earnings stands at 103.23%.

Leverage metrics present mixed signals: total debt $13,297,100,000 gives a debt-to-assets ratio of 16.60% and debt-to-equity of 57.76%, while debt-to-EBITDA reads 15.45x and interest coverage measures 3.97x. Returns remain modest: return on equity 1.589% and return on assets 0.474%.

Market multiples appear highly elevated: P/E at 227.17x, P/S at 24.40x, enterprise multiple 90.14x, and EVR 24.09x. The P/E level exceeds the industry peer mean of 94.82x and industry peer median of 103.15x, while the price-to-book ratio of 3.41x sits below the industry peer mean of 6.99x. WMDST values the stock as over-valued based on these multiples combined with negative free cash flow and stretched enterprise metrics.

Operationally, asset turnover at 0.0418 lags the industry peer mean of 0.1010 and the company records days sales outstanding of 131.17, contributing to working capital pressure alongside a -$582,500,000 change in working capital.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-31
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-30
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 22.2 B
 Operating Cash Flow -426.10 M
 Capital Expenditures -39.40 M
 Change In Working Capital -582.50 M
 Dividends Paid -166.60 M
 Cash Flow Delta -1.43 B
 End Period Cash Flow 20.8 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 3.2 B
 Forward Revenue 1.6 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.8 B
 Depreciation 49.7 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 230.8 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 2.6 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.4 B
 EBITDA 860.8 M
 EBIT 630.0 M
 Operating Income 624.4 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 158.6 M
 Net Interest Income -158.60 M
 Income Before Tax 471.4 M
 Tax Provision 105.2 M
 Tax Rate 22.3 %
 Net Income 365.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 366.2 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 2.34
 EPS Actual 2.33
 EPS Difference -0.01
 EPS Surprise -0.427 %
 Forward EPS 2.82
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 80.1 B
 Intangible Assets 18.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets 4.2 B
 Total Current Assets 57.8 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 14.3 B
 Cash 14.3 B
 Net Receivables 4.7 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 1.6 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable
 Short-Term Debt 797.2 M
 Total Current Liabilities 42.5 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 13.3 B
 Total Liabilities 57.1 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 23.0 B
 Retained Earnings 5.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 89.81
 Shares Outstanding 256.363 M
 Revenue Per-Share 12.56
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 78.6 B
 Enterprise Value 77.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple 90.138
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 45.633 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 9.416 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA AJG: 90.138
high: 75.465
median: 70.562
mean: 67.284
low: -7.424
 EV/R 24.091
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.48
 Asset To Liability 1.404
 Debt To Capital 0.366
 Debt To Assets 0.166
Debt To Assets QoQ -8.325 %
Debt To Assets YoY 2044.186 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.804
median: 0.337
mean: 0.332
AJG: 0.166
low: 0.013
 Debt To Equity 0.578
Debt To Equity QoQ -3.899 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1270.225 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 5.988
mean: 1.557
median: 1.371
AJG: 0.578
low: -4.467
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 3.414
Price To Book QoQ -7.957 %
Price To Book YoY -29.765 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 12.99
mean: 6.994
median: 6.587
AJG: 3.414
low: 0.141
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 227.166
Price To Earnings QoQ 157.876 %
Price To Earnings YoY 99.986 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA AJG: 227.166
high: 107.633
median: 103.153
mean: 94.822
low: 43.627
 PE/G Ratio -3.673
 Price To Sales (P/S) 24.402
Price To Sales QoQ 9.875 %
Price To Sales YoY 20.407 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 28.058
AJG: 24.402
mean: 17.247
median: 14.891
low: 1.133
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 115.718
Forward PE/G -1.871
Forward P/S 49.388
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 2.862
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.042
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -22.476 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -6.701 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.661
mean: 0.101
median: 0.08
low: 0.059
AJG: 0.042
 Receivables Turnover 0.696
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -21.461 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 4.362 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.234
mean: 1.028
median: 0.932
low: 0.841
AJG: 0.696
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 131.166
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.211
 CapEx To Revenue -0.012
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.793
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 35.1 B
 Net Invested Capital 35.9 B
 Invested Capital 35.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets 4.2 B
 Net Working Capital 15.3 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.336
 Current Ratio 1.36
Current Ratio QoQ -5.771 %
Current Ratio YoY 30.614 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.027
AJG: 1.36
mean: 1.354
median: 1.203
low: 1.028
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 15.447
 Cost Of Debt 0.923 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.972
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -38.977 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -18.551 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 24.118
median: 6.868
mean: 6.365
AJG: 3.972
low: -7.498
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.009
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 2.196
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.455
 Dividend Rate 0.65
 Dividend Yield 0.002
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 8.134 %
 Revenue Growth -13.591 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -136.497 %
Revenue Growth YoY -8.038 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 39.803 %
median: -1.232 %
mean: -3.868 %
AJG: -13.591 %
low: -27.136 %
 Earnings Growth -61.853 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -185.55 %
Earnings Growth YoY 75.499 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 88.462 %
median: -11.111 %
mean: -17.01 %
AJG: -61.853 %
low: -166.667 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 42.676 %
Gross Margin QoQ -11.169 %
Gross Margin YoY 6.141 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 48.759 %
median: 44.15 %
mean: 43.269 %
AJG: 42.676 %
low: 27.47 %
 EBIT Margin 19.56 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -29.292 %
EBIT Margin YoY 18.038 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 29.143 %
median: 27.086 %
mean: 24.061 %
AJG: 19.56 %
low: 3.605 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 19.386 %
Return On Sales QoQ -29.921 %
Return On Sales YoY 16.988 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 26.982 %
median: 26.226 %
mean: 23.595 %
AJG: 19.386 %
low: -3.629 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -465.50 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.592 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -158.096 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -479.487 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.211 %
mean: 1.28 %
median: 1.005 %
AJG: -0.592 %
low: -10.38 %
 Free Cash Growth -155.18 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -829.95 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 75.436 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 771.429 %
mean: 44.508 %
AJG: -155.18 %
median: -338.109 %
low: -572.81 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -1.273
 Cash Flow Margin 11.724 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.032
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.474 %
Return On Assets QoQ -53.438 %
Return On Assets YoY 3.72 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 2.096 %
mean: 1.493 %
median: 1.171 %
low: 0.507 %
AJG: 0.474 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.676 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.016
Return On Equity QoQ -49.651 %
Return On Equity YoY -35.116 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.086
median: 0.074
mean: 0.063
AJG: 0.016
low: -0.066
 DuPont ROE 1.613 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.363 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -42.392 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -103.52 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.311 %
mean: 3.207 %
median: 3.077 %
low: 1.431 %
AJG: 1.363 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical momentum favors further short-term gains while ADX indicates the move lacks trend conviction. Expect price to oscillate within a trading band bounded roughly by near-term support at the SuperTrend lower of $293.85 and resistance near the 200-day average at $311.91; the area around the upper Bollinger and recent highs ($303–$312) will act as a focus for short-term supply. Negative free cash flow, a stretched P/E, and elevated enterprise multiples constrain upside from a valuation standpoint, and thin volume suggests any advance requires renewed participation to carry higher. Overall, momentum-driven rallies remain possible, but valuation and cash-flow metrics limit the durability of those moves over the coming six weeks.

About Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE:AJG) delivers cutting-edge insurance and risk management solutions on a global scale. Since its inception in 1927, this Rolling Meadows, Illinois-based powerhouse has forged a reputation for excellence in the industry. Operating through two primary segments—Brokerage and Risk Management—Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. offers an extensive suite of services designed to meet the diverse needs of its clients. In the Brokerage segment, the company excels in retail and wholesale insurance and reinsurance brokerage. It specializes in complex and niche insurance products, acting as a brokerage wholesaler, managing general agent, and managing general underwriter. Its services encompass marketing, underwriting, policy issuance, premium collection, and claims negotiation, serving both retail and non-affiliated brokers. Additionally, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. provides insurance and reinsurance placement services, risk management, and employer-sponsored benefit program management. The Risk Management segment focuses on contract claim settlement and administration, offering claims management, loss control consulting, and property appraisal services. With a vast network of correspondent brokers and consultants, the company caters to a wide array of clients, including commercial, industrial, public, religious, and nonprofit organizations. Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. continuously innovates to deliver tailored solutions, ensuring clients worldwide navigate the complexities of risk with confidence.



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