nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) Accelerates Recovery While Near-Term Momentum Weakens

nCino shows operational improvement and stronger sequential revenue while short-term technical momentum signals pressure; valuation appears constructive given cash generation and a modest enterprise profile.

Recent News

On August 27, 2025 the company announced participation in two investor events: the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference (presentation scheduled for September 10, 2025) and the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference (presentation scheduled for September 11, 2025). The company also scheduled an investor day presentation for 2025.

Technical Analysis

ADX / DI+/DI-: ADX at 27.6 indicates a strong underlying trend. DI+ decreasing signals weakening directional upside. DI- showing a dip & reversal indicates rising downside pressure. Together these directional readings point to near-term bearish momentum that conflicts with the stock’s WMDST under-valued assessment.

MACD: MACD sits at 0.26 and trends lower while remaining below its 0.40 signal line, indicating bearish momentum and limited near-term upside until the MACD moves back above its signal.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at -9.31 indicates the current price sits below the model target and implies potential for price increase toward that target; this suggests mean-reversion upside that could offset short-term technical weakness and supports the valuation case.

RSI: RSI at 54.05, decreasing, indicates waning short-term momentum and aligns with the MACD and directional indicators that currently favor downside risk over immediate strength.

Price Versus Moving Averages & Ichimoku: The 12-day EMA shows a peak & reversal, and the closing price ($29.32) sits below the 20-day average ($30.24) and slightly below the 50-day average ($29.41) while roughly matching the 200-day average ($29.29). This configuration suggests short-term resistance near recent short-term averages while the longer-term baseline holds, reinforcing potential for a range-bound correction before any sustained advance—an important consideration given WMDST’s under-valued determination.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue And Growth: Total revenue of $148,815,000 reflects mixed growth signals: revenue growth year-over-year declined by 3.68%, while revenue growth quarter-over-quarter jumped by 65.87%, showing strong sequential recovery in demand for subscription and platform solutions.

Profitability: EBIT stands at -$8,066,000 and operating income at -$9,296,000, producing an EBIT margin of -5.42% (EBIT margin QoQ changed by -152.08%, EBIT margin YoY changed by -3.47%). Gross margin sits at 59.22%, below the industry peer mean of about 72.56% and below the industry peer median of about 73.23%, indicating lower gross profitability versus peers even as revenue stabilizes.

Earnings & Cash Flow: EPS actual of -$0.13 missed the estimate of -$0.11, an EPS surprise of -18.18%. EBITDA equals $2,636,000 while free cash flow totaled $12,588,000, yielding a free cash flow yield of 0.38%, slightly above the industry peer mean free cash flow yield of about 0.26%. Cash and short-term investments amount to $122,935,000, supporting liquidity even as net income registers a loss of -$15,257,000.

Balance Sheet & Leverage: Total debt equals $269,485,000 with net debt of $80,565,000 and a debt-to-assets ratio of 16.68%. Debt-to-equity stands at 0.255. Interest coverage remains negative at -1.82x, reflecting operating losses that drive coverage below breakeven despite modest cost of debt (1.282%). Current ratio registers at 1.03, near the industry peer mean current ratio of about 1.15, supporting short-term liquidity adequacy.

Operational Efficiency & Returns: Asset turnover registers 0.091, roughly in line with the industry peer mean of 0.104 but below the peer median; return on assets equals -0.93% and return on equity equals -1.44%, both negative but showing YoY improvements in reported growth metrics. Research & development investment totals $34,667,000, supporting product development and AI-enabled capabilities.

Valuation Metrics: Price-to-sales at 22.02 and enterprise-value-to-revenue at 23.00 reflect a premium multiple on current revenue while forward P/E sits near 129.65. Book value per share stands at $9.17 with price/book at 3.10, below the industry peer mean price/book of about 19.02 and below the peer median of about 26.46. The current WMDST valuation classifies the stock as under-valued, a view grounded in cash generation, sequential revenue recovery, and a large installed customer base despite negative margins and a loss per share.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-07-31
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-26
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-26
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 133.6 M
 Operating Cash Flow 17.7 M
 Capital Expenditures -5.15 M
 Change In Working Capital -4.12 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -10.36 M
 End Period Cash Flow 123.2 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 148.8 M
 Forward Revenue -61.23 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 60.7 M
 Depreciation 1.5 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 10.7 M
 Research and Development 34.7 M
 Total Operating Expenses 158.1 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 88.1 M
 EBITDA 2.6 M
 EBIT -8.07 M
 Operating Income -9.30 M
 Interest Income 513.0 K
 Interest Expense 4.4 M
 Net Interest Income -3.93 M
 Income Before Tax -12.51 M
 Tax Provision 1.2 M
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income -15.26 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -13.72 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate -0.11
 EPS Actual -0.13
 EPS Difference -0.02
 EPS Surprise -18.182 %
 Forward EPS 0.22
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.6 B
 Intangible Assets 1.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets -166.05 M
 Total Current Assets 255.1 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 122.9 M
 Cash 122.9 M
 Net Receivables 82.1 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 17.8 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 14.1 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 248.6 M
 Net Debt 80.6 M
 Total Debt 269.5 M
 Total Liabilities 548.9 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.1 B
 Retained Earnings -393.04 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 9.17
 Shares Outstanding 115.445 M
 Revenue Per-Share 1.29
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 3.3 B
 Enterprise Value 3.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 1298.662
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 953.266 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -46.363 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA NCNO: 1298.662
high: 913.757
median: 119.829
mean: 87.35
low: -981.793
 EV/R 23.004
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.529
 Asset To Liability 2.944
 Debt To Capital 0.203
 Debt To Assets 0.167
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.091 %
Debt To Assets YoY 2262.04 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.701
mean: 0.333
median: 0.314
NCNO: 0.167
low: 0.005
 Debt To Equity 0.255
Debt To Equity QoQ -1.772 %
Debt To Equity YoY 2656.757 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.26
mean: 0.382
NCNO: 0.255
median: 0.183
low: -0.716
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 3.101
Price To Book QoQ 9.922 %
Price To Book YoY -10.622 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 29.644
median: 26.458
mean: 19.018
NCNO: 3.101
low: -17.466
 Price To Earnings (P/E) -214.856
Price To Earnings QoQ -231.0 %
Price To Earnings YoY -193.084 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 693.657
mean: 193.863
median: 137.934
low: -59.027
NCNO: -214.856
 PE/G Ratio 1.185
 Price To Sales (P/S) 22.019
Price To Sales QoQ 4.937 %
Price To Sales YoY -21.814 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 95.267
mean: 45.357
median: 42.816
NCNO: 22.019
low: 5.82
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 129.646
Forward PE/G -0.715
Forward P/S -53.611
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -47.379
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.091
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.066 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -2.546 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.231
median: 0.104
mean: 0.104
NCNO: 0.091
low: 0.048
 Receivables Turnover 1.772
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 28.015 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -9.663 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.437
NCNO: 1.772
mean: 1.751
median: 1.716
low: 0.56
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 51.486
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 23.079
 CapEx To Revenue -0.035
 CapEx To Depreciation -3.524
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.3 B
 Invested Capital 1.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets -166.05 M
 Net Working Capital 6.4 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.494
 Current Ratio 1.026
Current Ratio QoQ -2.259 %
Current Ratio YoY -5.379 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 5.697
mean: 1.154
NCNO: 1.026
median: 0.942
low: 0.477
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 102.233
 Cost Of Debt 1.282 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -1.815
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -153.842 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -55.204 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 93.343
median: 4.713
mean: -1.495
NCNO: -1.815
low: -142.62
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.007
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 23.068
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -2.115 %
 Revenue Growth 3.246 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 65.866 %
Revenue Growth YoY -3.68 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 21.486 %
median: 4.141 %
NCNO: 3.246 %
mean: 1.58 %
low: -6.143 %
 Earnings Growth -181.25 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -643.755 %
Earnings Growth YoY 588.744 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 45.833 %
mean: 2.86 %
median: -7.629 %
low: -13.529 %
NCNO: -181.25 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 59.218 %
Gross Margin QoQ -1.257 %
Gross Margin YoY -0.084 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 90.981 %
median: 73.229 %
mean: 72.561 %
low: 65.011 %
NCNO: 59.218 %
 EBIT Margin -5.42 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -152.08 %
EBIT Margin YoY -3.473 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 29.144 %
median: 23.337 %
mean: 18.996 %
NCNO: -5.42 %
low: -41.293 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -6.247 %
Return On Sales QoQ -160.027 %
Return On Sales YoY 11.256 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 31.435 %
median: 22.821 %
mean: 18.252 %
NCNO: -6.247 %
low: -44.13 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 12.6 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.384 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -77.918 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 214.754 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 2.218 %
NCNO: 0.384 %
mean: 0.263 %
median: 0.246 %
low: -1.333 %
 Free Cash Growth -76.069 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -87.474 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -16.937 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 259.959 %
mean: -36.78 %
NCNO: -76.069 %
median: -87.615 %
low: -90.392 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.825
 Cash Flow Margin -1.253 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.122
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.934 %
Return On Assets QoQ -373.9 %
Return On Assets YoY 19.897 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.261 %
median: 1.678 %
mean: 1.083 %
NCNO: -0.934 %
low: -9.564 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -0.59 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.014
Return On Equity QoQ -378.227 %
Return On Equity YoY 40.604 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.121
mean: 0.056
median: 0.032
NCNO: -0.014
low: -0.192
 DuPont ROE -1.433 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -0.506 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -154.703 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -109.603 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.236 %
median: 3.218 %
mean: 2.244 %
NCNO: -0.506 %
low: -6.365 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term technical indicators favor downside pressure and consolidation: directional indicators and MACD show weakening momentum and short-term averages act as resistance. Countervailing signals include a negative MRO that implies mean-reversion potential and a solid cash position with positive free cash flow that underpins the WMDST under-valued judgment. Expect a period of range-bound trading and volatility as sequential revenue strength competes with short-term momentum loss; any sustained upside will require a renewal of momentum on the MACD and DI+ while downside risk remains until those signals improve.

About nCino, Inc.

nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) develops cloud-based software solutions tailored for financial institutions across the globe. The company’s flagship product, the nCino Bank Operating System, integrates employees, clients, and third parties on a unified platform. This system streamlines processes such as client onboarding, deposit account opening, loan origination, and mortgage management. nCino’s nIQ application suite leverages data analytics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning to automate operations and provide insights, aiding financial institutions in credit risk analysis and regulatory compliance. Additionally, nCino offers SimpleNexus, a mobile-first software solution designed to enhance the homeownership experience. The company serves a diverse clientele, including global financial institutions, enterprise banks, regional and community banks, credit unions, and independent mortgage banks. nCino reaches its customers through a dedicated team of business development representatives, account executives, field sales engineers, and customer success managers. Established in 2011, nCino, Inc. maintains its headquarters in Wilmington, North Carolina, and continues to expand its footprint in the financial technology sector.



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