Kennametal Inc. (NYSE:KMT) Signals Near-Term Upside As Momentum Rebounds

Kennametal shows technical momentum shifting toward a short-term bullish bias while fundamentals reflect margin pressure alongside solid cash generation. WMDST’s valuation classifies the stock as under-valued.

Recent News

On July 11, 2025, Investor’s Business Daily reported an upgrade in Kennametal’s Relative Strength rating, noting improving price performance but stating the stock remains outside an optimal buy range. A second IBD piece in July highlighted the company’s rising relative price performance versus peers though it noted the firm had not yet surpassed key technical thresholds for a breakout.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 18.84 indicates no established trend; the market lacks directional strength even as short-term momentum attempts to build. This low ADX tempers the conviction behind bullish signals and points to a range-bound environment unless trend strength increases.

DI+ shows a dip-and-reversal and DI- sits at 26.88 and decreasing; both readings count as bullish directional cues. The combination suggests buyers recently regained control of directional pressure, but ADX implies the move carries limited strength.

MACD at -0.26 has crossed above its signal line (-0.31), and the MACD shows a dip-and-reversal. That cross constitutes a bullish momentum shift versus prior selling pressure and supports a near-term lift in price if sustained.

MRO at -17.63 sits negative, indicating price sits below WMDST’s target and therefore carries potential to increase; the MRO displays a dip-and-reversal consistent with the MACD signal for a short-term recovery.

RSI at 47.52 with a dip-and-reversal places momentum near neutral but biased upward; the RSI offers room for upside before reaching overbought territory and confirms the tentative bullish tilt.

Price relationships: the close at $21.10 sits roughly at the 12-day EMA ($21.09) and the 20-day average ($21.13), showing short-term alignment. Price remains below the 50-day ($22.20) and 200-day ($22.04) averages, which act as overhead resistance levels; clearing those averages would strengthen trend conviction.

Bollinger bands position price near the midpoint (lower band ~ $20.27–$20.70, upper band ~ $21.56–$21.99), indicating limited volatility. The SuperTrend lower support at $20.57 sits just below the close and offers a nearby technical floor. Volume at 1.256M modestly exceeds the 10-day average, lending mild confirmation to the recent momentum pickup.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue reached $516,447,000 with revenue growth year-over-year at 15.82% and revenue growth quarter-over-quarter at 584.92%. The YoY top-line expansion contrasts with QoQ seasonality in the data and supports short-term earnings variability.

Operating income $37,160,000 and EBIT $36,592,000 produce an EBIT margin of 7.09%. That margin declined QoQ by -30.40% and YoY by -37.33%, placing the company well below the industry peer mean EBIT margin of 20.01% and below the industry peer median of 22.32%.

EPS came in at $0.34 versus an estimate of $0.39, generating an EPS surprise ratio of -12.82%; the miss tightened near-term sentiment on reported earnings metrics. Forward EPS stands at $0.4125 with a forward P/E of 52.23x while trailing P/E sits at 68.55x, reflecting lower current earnings relative to price.

Liquidity and cash flow show strength: cash and short-term investments $140,540,000, operating cash flow $78,594,000, and free cash flow $57,129,000 produce a free cash flow yield of 3.38%, which sits above the industry peer mean free cash flow yield of 1.01%. Current ratio 2.46 and quick ratio 1.19 indicate ample short-term coverage.

Balance sheet and leverage: total debt $643,360,000 and net debt $457,225,000 produce debt-to-equity of 0.50 and debt-to-EBITDA of 8.98x, signaling elevated leverage relative to earnings. Interest coverage at 5.88x provides buffer for interest expense, but the high debt-to-EBITDA multiple warrants monitoring against cyclical earnings pressure.

Profitability metrics remain subdued: return on equity 1.68% and return on assets 0.86% reflect compressed returns after margin declines. Cash conversion cycle 149.31 days exceeds the industry peer mean of 109.27 days, indicating longer working capital deployment that can pressure free cash conversion during slower revenue periods.

Valuation note: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. The valuation reflects a mix of above-peer free cash flow yield and a below-peer price-to-book ratio (P/B 1.32 versus industry peer mean P/B 4.66), offset by compressed margins and elevated leverage that weigh on earnings multiples.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-06
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 97.5 M
 Operating Cash Flow 78.6 M
 Capital Expenditures -21.46 M
 Change In Working Capital 25.4 M
 Dividends Paid -15.25 M
 Cash Flow Delta 43.1 M
 End Period Cash Flow 140.5 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 516.4 M
 Forward Revenue 187.5 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 370.8 M
 Depreciation 32.4 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 35.1 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 479.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 145.7 M
 EBITDA 71.7 M
 EBIT 36.6 M
 Operating Income 37.2 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 6.2 M
 Net Interest Income -6.22 M
 Income Before Tax 30.4 M
 Tax Provision 7.2 M
 Tax Rate 23.855 %
 Net Income 21.6 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 23.1 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.39
 EPS Actual 0.34
 EPS Difference -0.05
 EPS Surprise -12.821 %
 Forward EPS 0.41
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.5 B
 Intangible Assets 349.9 M
 Net Tangible Assets 934.0 M
 Total Current Assets 1.0 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 140.5 M
 Cash 140.5 M
 Net Receivables 295.4 M
 Inventory 538.2 M
 Long-Term Investments 25.5 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 195.9 M
 Short-Term Debt 977.0 K
 Total Current Liabilities 422.3 M
 Net Debt 457.2 M
 Total Debt 643.4 M
 Total Liabilities 1.2 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.3 B
 Retained Earnings 1.2 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 16.84
 Shares Outstanding 76.012 M
 Revenue Per-Share 6.77
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.7 B
 Enterprise Value 2.2 B
 Enterprise Multiple 30.59
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 19.487 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 70.053 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 92.169
median: 70.826
mean: 65.833
KMT: 30.59
low: -24.065
 EV/R 4.245
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.982
 Asset To Liability 2.085
 Debt To Capital 0.334
 Debt To Assets 0.253
Debt To Assets QoQ -3.648 %
Debt To Assets YoY 45854.545 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.742
mean: 0.324
median: 0.315
KMT: 0.253
low: 0.015
 Debt To Equity 0.501
Debt To Equity QoQ -5.136 %
Debt To Equity YoY 45451.818 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.784
mean: 1.022
median: 0.679
KMT: 0.501
low: 0.02
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.316
Price To Book QoQ 3.107 %
Price To Book YoY -11.598 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 10.583
mean: 4.66
median: 3.792
KMT: 1.316
low: 0.483
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 68.546
Price To Earnings QoQ 55.597 %
Price To Earnings YoY 40.626 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 191.429
mean: 90.037
median: 89.604
KMT: 68.546
low: -52.656
 PE/G Ratio -2.478
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.271
Price To Sales QoQ 0.806 %
Price To Sales YoY -4.462 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 27.05
median: 17.264
mean: 15.676
KMT: 3.271
low: 0.537
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 52.225
Forward PE/G -1.888
Forward P/S 8.985
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -4.225
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.205
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.869 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -5.195 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.357
KMT: 0.205
mean: 0.187
median: 0.18
low: 0.009
 Receivables Turnover 1.762
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.294 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -1.715 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.527
KMT: 1.762
mean: 1.524
median: 1.491
low: 0.863
 Inventory Turnover 0.678
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 12.183 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -3.229 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.099
median: 1.161
mean: 1.056
KMT: 0.678
low: 0.231
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 51.8
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 149.313
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 2.231 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 9.599 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 197.569
KMT: 149.313
mean: 109.271
median: 100.917
low: 28.349
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.837
 CapEx To Revenue -0.042
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.662
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.9 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets 934.0 M
 Net Working Capital 616.9 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.333
 Current Ratio 2.461
Current Ratio QoQ 0.929 %
Current Ratio YoY 2.096 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 6.77
KMT: 2.461
mean: 2.028
median: 1.941
low: 0.435
 Quick Ratio 1.186
Quick Ratio QoQ 7.808 %
Quick Ratio YoY 1.131 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 5.031
mean: 1.382
median: 1.245
KMT: 1.186
low: 0.295
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 8.977
 Cost Of Debt 0.731 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 5.878
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -26.24 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -40.217 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 32.444
mean: 11.908
median: 11.802
KMT: 5.878
low: -13.624
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.173
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 53.756
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.416
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.706
 Dividend Rate 0.20
 Dividend Yield 0.009
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.205 %
 Revenue Growth 6.178 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 584.922 %
Revenue Growth YoY 15.823 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 22.434 %
mean: 6.572 %
KMT: 6.178 %
median: 5.7 %
low: -16.343 %
 Earnings Growth -27.66 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -131.432 %
Earnings Growth YoY -143.674 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 79.63 %
mean: 11.625 %
median: 10.807 %
low: -25.0 %
KMT: -27.66 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 28.205 %
Gross Margin QoQ -12.262 %
Gross Margin YoY -10.563 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 64.005 %
median: 41.979 %
mean: 41.728 %
KMT: 28.205 %
low: 9.775 %
 EBIT Margin 7.085 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -30.403 %
EBIT Margin YoY -37.334 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 27.783 %
median: 22.321 %
mean: 20.011 %
KMT: 7.085 %
low: -40.613 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 7.195 %
Return On Sales QoQ -29.322 %
Return On Sales YoY -36.361 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 27.542 %
median: 21.334 %
mean: 20.953 %
KMT: 7.195 %
low: -42.559 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 57.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 3.382 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 909.552 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -30.34 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA KMT: 3.382 %
high: 2.375 %
mean: 1.006 %
median: 0.922 %
low: -6.253 %
 Free Cash Growth 979.739 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -1248.904 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 1030.947 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA KMT: 979.739 %
high: 255.172 %
mean: 33.337 %
median: 2.098 %
low: -323.025 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.646
 Cash Flow Margin 14.129 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 3.379
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.858 %
Return On Assets QoQ -32.864 %
Return On Assets YoY -42.066 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 5.203 %
median: 3.161 %
mean: 2.77 %
KMT: 0.858 %
low: -6.694 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.724 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.017
Return On Equity QoQ -33.91 %
Return On Equity YoY -43.462 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.067
mean: 0.041
median: 0.04
KMT: 0.017
low: -0.136
 DuPont ROE 1.713 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.481 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -27.721 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -104.405 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.382 %
median: 4.394 %
mean: 3.962 %
KMT: 1.481 %
low: -1.94 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term technicals favor a modest upside bias: MACD crossing above its signal, a negative MRO reversing, DI+ recovering, and RSI rebounding all support short-term buying pressure. The low ADX cautions that any advance may lack strong follow-through unless ADX moves above the emerging trend threshold.

Price sits above short-term EMAs but below 50- and 200-day averages, so momentum gains must contend with overhead resistance in the low $22 range. Support clusters sit near $20.57 (SuperTrend lower) and the lower Bollinger band region around $20.27–$20.70. Liquidity and free cash flow provide fundamental backing for the technical setup, while margin compression and high debt-to-EBITDA represent key vulnerabilities over the near term.

For active swing horizons, expect a conditional bullish bias that requires confirmation from sustained MACD/RSI follow-through or a rise in ADX; absent that confirmation, price may remain range-bound between the identified support and the 50-day average resistance.

About Kennametal Inc.

Kennametal Inc. (NYSE:KMT) develops and applies advanced materials and solutions designed for extreme conditions. Established in 1938 and headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Kennametal manufactures tungsten carbides, ceramics, and super-hard materials serving diverse industries. The company operates through two main segments: Metal Cutting and Infrastructure. In the Metal Cutting segment, Kennametal provides a wide range of products and services, including milling, turning, threading, and toolmaking systems. These solutions support manufacturers in sectors such as transportation, aerospace, and energy, enhancing efficiency and precision. The company’s offerings are marketed under brands like Kennametal, WIDIA, and WIDIA Hanita, distributed through an extensive network of distributors and digital channels. The Infrastructure segment delivers specialized components for the oil and gas, petrochemical, and mining industries. Kennametal produces earth-cutting tools, tungsten carbide powders, and essential wear components, ensuring durability and reliability in challenging environments. Kennametal remains committed to innovation and quality, enabling industries worldwide to address complex challenges and achieve operational excellence.



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