The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (NYSE:SMG) Strengthens Margins; Near-Term Recovery Likely

Scotts Miracle-Gro posts margin improvement and cash-generation strength while balance-sheet leverage elevates risk. Technical momentum shows mixed pressure but a valuation gap and robust free cash flow support a plausible near-term rebound.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 10.05 indicates no trend strength; directional movement lacks conviction and suggests range-bound action rather than a sustained trend.

DI- at 22.97 (dip & reversal) and DI+ at 22.41 (decreasing) signal bearish directional pressure on price momentum and weigh against bullish continuation in the near term.

MACD at -0.79 with the signal at -0.57 and a decreasing MACD_trend signals bearish momentum; the MACD sits below its signal line, reinforcing downward momentum pressure.

MRO at -26.02 (peak & reversal) registers price below target and implies upward mean-reversion potential; the negative MRO suggests latent upside if momentum shifts.

RSI at 46.61 with a decreasing trend shows weakening near-term momentum but not an oversold condition, indicating room for either consolidation or a corrective bounce.

Price sits below short- and medium-term averages: last close $58.43 versus the 20-day average $60.66, 50-day average $62.52, and 200-day average $61.72; the 12-day EMA trends downward, so moving averages act as resistance and contain near-term rallies.

Bollinger structure places the close slightly beneath the 1x lower band ($59.05), suggesting proximity to a short-term support zone that could prompt mean-reversion attempts; the SuperTrend upper at $61.96 marks a nearby resistance ceiling.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue registered $1,188,000,000 with revenue growth down 16.40% year-over-year and down 106.81% quarter-over-quarter signal pressure on top-line demand compared with prior periods.

EBIT at $239,100,000 and EBITDA at $257,700,000 translate to an EBIT margin of 20.13%. That margin sits below the industry peer mean of 26.51% and below the industry peer median of 28.75%, while EBIT margin improved 9.08% year-over-year but contracted 15.26% sequentially.

GAAP EPS recorded $2.59 versus an estimate of $2.26, a $0.33 beat and a 14.60% EPS surprise; non-GAAP adjusted earnings align at $2.59 per the report, supporting reported profit quality for the quarter.

Free cash flow at $437,500,000 produces a free cash flow yield of 12.18%, substantially above the industry peer mean of 1.56%, reflecting strong cash conversion relative to peers and providing flexibility despite elevated leverage.

Balance-sheet metrics show total debt $2,188,300,000 and net debt $2,137,200,000 alongside total equity of $-170,900,000; debt-to-assets stands at 70.81%, markedly above the industry peer mean of 11.88%, and debt-to-equity registers negative at -1,280.46% driven by negative equity—factors that elevate capital-structure risk.

Liquidity measures read current ratio 1.61 and quick ratio 0.93, both slightly below the industry peer means (current ratio mean 1.73, quick ratio mean 1.23), while the cash conversion cycle at 87.20 days runs shorter than the industry peer mean of 132.01 days, supporting working-capital efficiency.

Return metrics show return on assets 4.50% above the industry peer mean of 2.78%, while return on equity registers negative due to the negative equity base. Interest coverage near 7.52x provides a buffer versus interest expense, which management projects lower year-over-year.

WMDST values the stock as under-valued based on elevated free cash flow yield and operating cash conversion, balanced against leverage and negative equity that compress traditional solvency metrics. Valuation context: forward EPS $1.06 and forward PE approximately 56.80 reflect near-term earnings acceleration uncertainty versus trailing PE 24.77.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 16.9 M
 Operating Cash Flow 454.4 M
 Capital Expenditures -16.90 M
 Change In Working Capital 258.7 M
 Dividends Paid -38.20 M
 Cash Flow Delta 34.2 M
 End Period Cash Flow 51.1 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.2 B
 Forward Revenue 121.9 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 810.0 M
 Depreciation 15.5 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 18.6 M
 Research and Development 9.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 970.6 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 378.0 M
 EBITDA 257.7 M
 EBIT 239.1 M
 Operating Income 217.4 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 31.8 M
 Net Interest Income -31.80 M
 Income Before Tax 207.3 M
 Tax Provision 58.2 M
 Tax Rate 28.075 %
 Net Income 149.1 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 149.1 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 2.26
 EPS Actual 2.59
 EPS Difference 0.33
 EPS Surprise 14.602 %
 Forward EPS 1.06
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 3.1 B
 Intangible Assets 653.5 M
 Net Tangible Assets -824.40 M
 Total Current Assets 1.3 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 51.1 M
 Cash 51.1 M
 Net Receivables 573.8 M
 Inventory 544.3 M
 Long-Term Investments 478.5 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 261.7 M
 Short-Term Debt 52.1 M
 Total Current Liabilities 798.6 M
 Net Debt 2.1 B
 Total Debt 2.2 B
 Total Liabilities 3.3 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity -170.90 M
 Retained Earnings 485.2 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share -2.96
 Shares Outstanding 57.715 M
 Revenue Per-Share 20.58
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 3.6 B
 Enterprise Value 5.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple 22.237
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 34.48 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 56.744 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 28.373
mean: 23.638
median: 23.356
SMG: 22.237
low: 20.169
 EV/R 4.824
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity -18.084
 Asset To Liability 0.948
 Debt To Capital 1.085
 Debt To Assets 0.708
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.713 %
Debt To Assets YoY 4570.515 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA SMG: 0.708
high: 0.575
mean: 0.119
low: 0.087
median: 0.087
 Debt To Equity -12.805
Debt To Equity QoQ 45.796 %
Debt To Equity YoY 3438.833 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.812
mean: 0.223
low: 0.14
median: 0.14
SMG: -12.805
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) -21.025
Price To Book QoQ 81.316 %
Price To Book YoY -16.083 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 2.831
median: 1.887
mean: 1.823
low: 1.145
SMG: -21.025
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 24.772
Price To Earnings QoQ 68.817 %
Price To Earnings YoY -11.266 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 73.614
mean: 38.649
SMG: 24.772
low: -5.072
median: -5.072
 PE/G Ratio -0.709
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.025
Price To Sales QoQ 27.764 %
Price To Sales YoY -0.733 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 7.573
median: 7.573
mean: 7.072
low: 3.751
SMG: 3.025
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 56.798
Forward PE/G -1.626
Forward P/S 29.486
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.778
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.359
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -15.392 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 10.542 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA SMG: 0.359
high: 0.168
median: 0.154
mean: 0.154
low: 0.131
 Receivables Turnover 1.73
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -38.328 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -0.577 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.659
SMG: 1.73
mean: 0.998
low: 0.884
median: 0.884
 Inventory Turnover 1.23
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 18.51 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 3.743 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.821
SMG: 1.23
mean: 0.667
low: 0.621
median: 0.621
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 52.734
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 87.197
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -49.011 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 7.129 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 136.653
median: 136.653
mean: 132.009
SMG: 87.197
low: 38.988
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 2.451
 CapEx To Revenue -0.014
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.09
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 2.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 2.0 B
 Invested Capital 2.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets -824.40 M
 Net Working Capital 484.7 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.064
 Current Ratio 1.607
Current Ratio QoQ -5.876 %
Current Ratio YoY -10.753 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.447
mean: 1.727
low: 1.682
median: 1.682
SMG: 1.607
 Quick Ratio 0.925
Quick Ratio QoQ -1.932 %
Quick Ratio YoY -15.132 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.395
median: 1.228
mean: 1.227
low: 1.049
SMG: 0.925
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 8.492
 Cost Of Debt 0.966 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 7.519
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -18.462 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 31.529 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 35.692
median: 35.692
mean: 30.23
SMG: 7.519
low: 1.519
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.61
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 34.385
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 3.903
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.256
 Dividend Rate 0.66
 Dividend Yield 0.011
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -12.613 %
 Revenue Growth -16.397 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -106.806 %
Revenue Growth YoY -22.612 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 46.163 %
median: 46.163 %
mean: 39.309 %
low: 3.679 %
SMG: -16.397 %
 Earnings Growth -34.925 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -93.617 %
Earnings Growth YoY -6.613 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 3400.0 %
mean: 96.663 %
low: 94.69 %
median: 94.69 %
SMG: -34.925 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 31.818 %
Gross Margin QoQ -17.478 %
Gross Margin YoY 8.026 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 54.585 %
median: 54.585 %
mean: 50.411 %
SMG: 31.818 %
low: 15.316 %
 EBIT Margin 20.126 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -15.263 %
EBIT Margin YoY 9.084 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 28.748 %
median: 28.748 %
mean: 26.508 %
SMG: 20.126 %
low: 7.916 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 18.3 %
Return On Sales QoQ -22.951 %
Return On Sales YoY -0.813 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 28.377 %
median: 28.377 %
mean: 25.595 %
SMG: 18.3 %
low: 6.935 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 437.5 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 12.176 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 127.802 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -22.406 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA SMG: 12.176 %
high: 2.048 %
median: 1.696 %
mean: 1.558 %
low: -0.056 %
 Free Cash Growth 143.326 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -203.946 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 43.825 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA SMG: 143.326 %
high: -59.677 %
median: -137.631 %
mean: -168.752 %
low: -368.0 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.934
 Cash Flow Margin 41.035 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 3.27
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 4.5 %
Return On Assets QoQ -30.62 %
Return On Assets YoY 26.263 %
Return On Assets IPRWA SMG: 4.5 %
high: 3.854 %
median: 3.133 %
mean: 2.781 %
low: 0.261 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 10.432 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.872
Return On Equity QoQ 16.366 %
Return On Equity YoY -3.444 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.122
median: 0.051
mean: 0.046
low: 0.006
SMG: -0.872
 DuPont ROE -64.689 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 8.524 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -21.118 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -112.085 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA SMG: 8.524 %
high: 4.814 %
median: 4.814 %
mean: 4.358 %
low: 0.924 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical setup suggests constrained directional conviction: ADX signals range conditions while DI readings and a falling MACD favor downward pressure. Watch the price reaction at the lower Bollinger band area near $59 and the SuperTrend resistance at $61.96 for momentum clues.

MRO’s negative reading indicates downside has left room for mean reversion toward targets, so expect episodic rallies if momentum indicators stabilize; however, MACD and RSI trending down imply initial rallies may encounter resistance and short-lived strength.

Fundamentals provide mixed near-term support: robust free cash flow and improved margins underpin rebounds, while high leverage and negative equity limit sustained upside without clearer deleveraging or cash-generation evidence. Volatility and volume remain moderate versus longer-term averages, favoring trading around structural support and resistance rather than breakout-driven moves.

About The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (NYSE:SMG) manufactures, markets, and sells a comprehensive range of products for lawn and garden care, as well as indoor and hydroponic gardening, both in the United States and internationally. Through its U.S. Consumer, Hawthorne, and Other segments, the company delivers lawn care essentials such as fertilizers, grass seed products, and spreaders, alongside weed, pest, and disease control solutions. Scotts Miracle-Gro enhances gardening and landscaping with plant foods, potting mixes, soils, mulches, and organic garden products. In the hydroponics sector, the company offers products that facilitate plant growth with minimal soil, including lighting systems and components tailored for indoor gardening. Its product portfolio also includes insect, rodent, and weed control solutions, as well as non-selective weed killers. The company markets these products under well-known brands like Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho, and Roundup, among others. Scotts Miracle-Gro serves a diverse customer base, including home centers, mass merchandisers, hardware chains, nurseries, garden centers, and e-commerce platforms. Founded in 1868, the company continues to innovate in the gardening and lawn care industry.



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