Recent News
On July 23, 2025 the company cut its annual comparable-restaurant sales growth forecast to roughly flat after reporting a 4% comparable-sales decline. On September 3, 2025 the Board approved an additional $500 million in share repurchases, disclosed in a Form 8‑K filed mid-September; the authorization raises available repurchase capacity to roughly $750 million.
Technical Analysis
ADX / DI+ / DI−: ADX at 43.88 indicates very strong trend strength; DI+ shows a dip-and-reversal while DI− shows a peak-and-reversal, both signaling a bullish directional reversal that supports near-term upside pressure despite the strong trend backdrop.
MACD: MACD sits at −1.45 above its signal line at −1.58 and shows a dip-and-reversal trend, signaling a shift toward bullish momentum that aligns with the directional indicators and raises the probability of a short-term momentum bounce.
MRO: MRO at −32.81 places price below the WMDST target, implying potential for upward mean reversion; the negative MRO therefore supports near-term upside pressure even though the broader valuation reads as over-valued.
RSI: RSI at 34.74 with a dip-and-reversal indicates the stock approached oversold territory and now shows a rebound signal, consistent with the MACD and directional indicators for a tactical bounce.
Price vs. Moving Averages and Bands: Price closed at $39.32, below the 50‑day average ($44.17) and well under the 200‑day average ($51.72), while the 12‑day EMA trend remains decreasing—these conditions reflect an intermediate downtrend. Price sits just above the 1× lower Bollinger band (~$38.57) and below the supertrend upper level ($40.84), delimiting near-term downside and establishing a constrained range for potential mean reversion.
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability: Operating/EBIT margin equals 18.77%, improved QoQ by 9.36% but declined YoY by 7.10%. The operating margin sits below the industry peer mean of 26.81% and below the industry peer median of 24.865% while above the industry peer low, indicating margins remain positive but leaner than peer centroids.
Revenue and Growth: Total revenue reached $3,063,393,000. YoY revenue growth registered −34.83% while the reported quarter-over-quarter revenue growth figure shows +5.22% (as provided). Net income totaled $436,127,000 while earnings growth reads +13.79% on the most recent measure with a QoQ decline in earnings growth of 13.79% and a YoY earnings-growth roll of −114.153% (per the supplied figures). These mixed growth dynamics help explain the downward revision to same-store sales guidance and the shift toward buybacks.
Earnings Per Share: Reported EPS $0.33 matched the estimate of $0.33 (EPS difference $0.00) with an EPS surprise ratio of 1.26%, reflecting an essentially in-line result that neither alleviated valuation concerns nor materially altered the near-term narrative.
Cash, Liquidity, and Leverage: Cash stood at $844,524,000 and cash plus short‑term investments at $1,546,492,000. Current ratio measured 1.65 and quick ratio 1.615, with a cash ratio of 1.366, indicating ample short-term liquidity. Total debt totals $4,780,586,000, producing a debt-to-EBITDA of 7.18 and debt-to-equity of 1.355; interest coverage remains elevated at 64.27, which supports debt servicing capacity despite leverage levels above conservative norms.
Cash Flow and Capital Allocation: Operating cash flow reached $561,327,000 and free cash flow amounted to $400,742,000, with a free-cash-flow yield of 0.634% and free-cash-flow-to-net-income at 91.89%. Capital expenditures registered −$160,585,000 with capex-to-revenue of −5.242% and capex-to-depreciation at −176.574% (as provided), reflecting ongoing investment alongside robust cash conversion (cash conversion ratio 4.157).
Valuation Metrics: Price multiples show PE at 160.76x and forward PE about 158.26x, PS at 20.64x, EV/Revenue (EVR) at 21.70 and enterprise multiple at 99.79. The PE sits above the industry peer mean of 97.07 and above the industry peer median of 94.28 (industry peer high also provided), underscoring a stretched multiple profile. The current valuation as determined by WMDST: over-valued.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-06-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-07-23 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2025-10-22 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 756.1 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 561.3 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -160.59 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ -12.53 M | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 119.1 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 875.2 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 3.1 B | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 771.4 M | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 2.2 B | |
| Depreciation | $ 90.9 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 90.9 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 2.5 B | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 838.2 M | |
| EBITDA | $ 666.1 M | |
| EBIT | $ 575.1 M | |
| Operating Income | $ 575.1 M | |
| Interest Income | $ 18.4 M | |
| Interest Expense | — | |
| Net Interest Income | $ 18.4 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 577.4 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 141.3 M | |
| Tax Rate | 24.5 % | |
| Net Income | $ 436.1 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 436.1 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 0.33 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 0.33 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.00 | |
| EPS Surprise | 1.26 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 0.33 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 9.3 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 21.9 M | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 3.5 B | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 1.9 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 1.5 B | |
| Cash | $ 844.5 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 105.0 M | |
| Inventory | $ 40.4 M | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 151.6 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 216.3 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 1.1 B | |
| Net Debt | — | |
| Total Debt | $ 4.8 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 5.7 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 3.5 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ 1.4 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 2.63 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.341 B | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 2.28 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 63.2 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 66.5 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 99.794 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | -20.893 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | -15.487 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 115.782 CMG: 99.794 mean: 72.053 median: 71.611 low: -56.203 |
|
| EV/R | 21.698 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 2.627 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.615 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.575 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.516 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | 0.681 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 1640.702 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 1.647 median: 0.735 mean: 0.712 CMG: 0.516 low: 0.002 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 1.355 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | 2.092 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 1802.781 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 10.498 CMG: 1.355 median: -2.547 mean: -5.023 low: -20.242 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 17.923 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -10.688 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | -18.905 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 19.124 CMG: 17.923 median: 2.917 mean: -1.935 low: -25.016 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 160.765 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -10.171 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | -8.627 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 289.09 CMG: 160.765 mean: 97.066 median: 94.276 low: -27.296 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | 11.656 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 20.643 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | -15.277 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | -25.188 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 31.824 CMG: 20.643 mean: 18.179 median: 16.293 low: 0.286 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 158.258 | |
| Forward PE/G | 11.474 | |
| Forward P/S | 81.971 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | 2.523 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.335 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | 6.169 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | -2.489 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.621 CMG: 0.335 mean: 0.19 median: 0.121 low: 0.02 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 29.656 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | 26.635 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | -6.549 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 42.739 CMG: 29.656 mean: 6.756 median: 3.313 low: 0.692 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | 54.412 | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | 15.831 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | -5.387 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 63.048 CMG: 54.412 median: 54.358 mean: 35.697 low: 0.492 |
|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 3.077 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | -4.492 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | 36.066 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | -5.089 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 60.416 median: 4.8 mean: 2.828 CMG: -4.492 low: -59.918 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 4.157 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.052 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -1.766 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 3.5 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 3.5 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 3.5 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 3.5 B | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 736.9 M | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 1.366 | |
| Current Ratio | 1.651 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 8.44 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -3.598 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.698 CMG: 1.651 mean: 0.975 median: 0.819 low: 0.137 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 1.615 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | 8.806 % | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | -3.767 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.654 CMG: 1.615 median: 1.0 mean: 0.988 low: 0.106 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 7.177 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 0.144 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 64.268 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 16.512 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -4.274 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | CMG: 64.268 high: 46.029 mean: 9.009 median: 6.755 low: -26.646 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | 0.462 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 9.328 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | 2.484 % | |
| Revenue Growth | 6.543 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | 521.958 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -34.831 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 52.655 % median: 14.912 % mean: 14.158 % CMG: 6.543 % low: -34.396 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | 13.793 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -13.794 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -114.153 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 214.286 % mean: 25.19 % median: 19.476 % CMG: 13.793 % low: -246.809 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 27.363 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | 4.395 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | -5.338 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 82.429 % mean: 43.127 % median: 41.612 % CMG: 27.363 % low: -15.915 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 18.774 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | 9.355 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | -7.096 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 47.508 % mean: 26.81 % median: 24.865 % CMG: 18.774 % low: -17.348 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 18.774 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | 9.355 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -7.096 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 47.655 % mean: 26.171 % median: 24.801 % CMG: 18.774 % low: -15.426 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 400.7 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 0.634 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | 7.823 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | 23.107 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 7.323 % mean: 1.019 % median: 0.675 % CMG: 0.634 % low: -3.222 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -2.795 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -116.942 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -15.533 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 178.828 % CMG: -2.795 % median: -33.191 % mean: -66.927 % low: -447.422 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 0.919 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 17.092 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 1.201 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.04 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 4.763 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | 12.414 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -9.414 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 7.107 % CMG: 4.763 % mean: 2.81 % median: 2.467 % low: -4.298 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 7.069 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.124 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | 11.612 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | 0.692 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.488 CMG: 0.124 median: 0.016 mean: 0.001 low: -0.628 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 12.427 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 12.312 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | 12.933 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -133.485 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 16.565 % CMG: 12.312 % mean: 6.858 % median: 6.625 % low: -8.237 % |
|