Badger Meter, Inc. (NYSE:BMI) Poised For Short-Term Bounce Despite Overvalued Multiple

Badger Meter shows signs of near-term mean-reversion while fundamentals reflect profitable operations and stretched valuation. Technicals offer a potential short-window bounce, even as longer-term trend strength and high multiples constrain upside.

Recent News

On August 8, 2025 the Board approved an 18% increase in the quarterly common dividend to $0.40 per share, payable September 5, 2025 to shareholders of record on August 22, 2025. Analysts published consensus coverage in August that aggregated a “Hold” recommendation with mixed target revisions and a mid-year average 12‑month price target near $238.40.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 38.4 indicates a strong trend exists; given the directional indicators the prevailing trend carries downside bias. DI+ shows a peak-and-reversal while DI– shows a dip-and-reversal, both signaling bearish directional pressure.

MACD stands at -$5.07 with the MACD line above the -$5.57 signal line and an increasing MACD trend; the MACD crossing above the signal line constitutes a bullish momentum signal despite negative absolute MACD levels.

MRO registers -24.52 with a dip-and-reversal pattern, which signals the price sits below WMDST’s target and implies upward pressure toward target pricing in the near term.

RSI at 38.04 with a peak-and-reversal pattern signals waning momentum and scope for a rebound from oversold-to-neutral territory, but not yet a clear momentum shift to sustained strength.

Price sits below the 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day averages (20‑day $179.89; 50‑day $194.51; 200‑day $212.49) and the 12‑day EMA trending lower, underscoring longer-term technical weakness. Bollinger indicators show a recent dip and reversal relative to the lower bands, and current volume (628,832) exceeds recent averages, supporting the legitimacy of the short-term move.

Ichimoku components place the Chikou span below the cloud while Tenkan and Kijun sit above the close; that configuration suggests the longer-term cloud structure still favors resistance even as short‑term oscillators and MRO set up for a bounce.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue measured $238,095,000 and operating income $44,863,000, producing an operating (EBIT) margin of 18.84%. That operating margin sits essentially in line with the industry peer mean of 18.865% and near the industry peer median of 18.208%. QoQ operating margin declined about 15.29%, while YoY operating margin slipped roughly 1.66%.

Diluted EPS for the reported period equaled $1.17 versus an estimate of $1.25, an EPS surprise of -6.4%. Cash provided by operations improved, and free cash flow totaled $40,648,000 with a free cash flow yield of 0.67%, below the industry peer mean of 1.441%.

Return metrics show return on equity at 5.10% and return on assets at 3.77%, both modestly above the industry peer means (ROE mean 4.654%, ROA mean 1.941%), indicating efficient capital use relative to peers despite slowing earnings growth. Reported earnings growth stands negative at -10.0% with YoY earnings growth showing a larger decline, while reported revenue growth and period growth show mixed signs (revenue growth of 7.15% and YoY revenue growth of -31.15%), reflecting timing and comparability effects across reporting periods.

Valuation multiples present stretched comparatives: price-to-book at 8.95 sits above the industry peer range (industry peer high 5.42158), and price-to-earnings at 201.35 stands well above the industry peer mean and high. Price-to-sales at 25.48 exceeds the industry peer mean but remains within the peer high. Those multiples, combined with a forward P/E near 189.46, drive the current valuation assessment.

Liquidity and balance sheet metrics remain healthy: current ratio 3.23, quick ratio 2.17, cash and short-term investments $165,208,000, and interest coverage extremely robust at 218.84. Working capital and cash conversion cycle (~97.5 days) align with operating dynamics for the business model.

WMDST values the stock as over-valued based on the present multiples and cash-flow yield relative to the company’s operating profile.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-22
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-16
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 131.4 M
 Operating Cash Flow 44.6 M
 Capital Expenditures -3.94 M
 Change In Working Capital -1.34 M
 Dividends Paid -10.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta 33.9 M
 End Period Cash Flow 165.2 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 238.1 M
 Forward Revenue 62.1 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 140.3 M
 Depreciation 2.9 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 8.8 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 193.2 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 97.8 M
 EBITDA 53.7 M
 EBIT 44.9 M
 Operating Income 44.9 M
 Interest Income 895.0 K
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income 895.0 K
 Income Before Tax 45.8 M
 Tax Provision 11.2 M
 Tax Rate 24.5 %
 Net Income 34.6 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 34.6 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.25
 EPS Actual 1.17
 EPS Difference -0.08
 EPS Surprise -6.4 %
 Forward EPS 1.23
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 936.4 M
 Intangible Assets 361.8 M
 Net Tangible Assets 315.8 M
 Total Current Assets 448.3 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 165.2 M
 Cash 165.2 M
 Net Receivables 117.7 M
 Inventory 147.3 M
 Long-Term Investments 15.7 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 74.1 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 138.7 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt
 Total Liabilities 258.8 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 677.6 M
 Retained Earnings 600.8 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 22.99
 Shares Outstanding 29.469 M
 Revenue Per-Share 8.08
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 6.1 B
 Enterprise Value
 Enterprise Multiple
Enterprise Multiple QoQ
Enterprise Multiple YoY
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.382
 Asset To Liability 3.618
 Debt To Capital
 Debt To Assets
Debt To Assets QoQ
Debt To Assets YoY
Debt To Assets IPRWA
 Debt To Equity
Debt To Equity QoQ
Debt To Equity YoY
Debt To Equity IPRWA
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 8.952
Price To Book QoQ -1.976 %
Price To Book YoY -7.099 %
Price To Book IPRWA BMI: 8.952
high: 5.422
median: 3.746
mean: 3.625
low: -0.411
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 201.347
Price To Earnings QoQ 31.556 %
Price To Earnings YoY 22.226 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA BMI: 201.347
high: 120.19
mean: 91.963
median: 87.249
low: -26.525
 PE/G Ratio -20.135
 Price To Sales (P/S) 25.477
Price To Sales QoQ -3.396 %
Price To Sales YoY 1.718 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 40.481
BMI: 25.477
median: 16.349
mean: 16.348
low: 0.28
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 189.46
Forward PE/G -18.946
Forward P/S 97.629
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -1.291
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.259
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.143 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -8.737 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.44
BMI: 0.259
mean: 0.153
median: 0.118
low: 0.019
 Receivables Turnover 2.075
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -8.417 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -4.951 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.248
BMI: 2.075
mean: 1.626
median: 1.568
low: 0.086
 Inventory Turnover 0.946
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 9.22 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 15.871 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.85
median: 1.044
mean: 1.02
BMI: 0.946
low: 0.026
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 43.982
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 97.517
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -3.605 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 4.239 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 317.233
mean: 102.436
median: 100.095
BMI: 97.517
low: -23.304
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.769
 CapEx To Revenue -0.017
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.351
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 677.6 M
 Net Invested Capital 677.6 M
 Invested Capital 677.6 M
 Net Tangible Assets 315.8 M
 Net Working Capital 309.6 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.191
 Current Ratio 3.232
Current Ratio QoQ 10.728 %
Current Ratio YoY -12.343 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 12.505
BMI: 3.232
mean: 1.387
median: 1.06
low: 0.411
 Quick Ratio 2.17
Quick Ratio QoQ 16.725 %
Quick Ratio YoY -13.858 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 10.835
BMI: 2.17
mean: 0.912
median: 0.72
low: 0.363
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA
 Cost Of Debt 42.192 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 218.844
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -9.23 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 8.072 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA BMI: 218.844
high: 29.743
mean: 12.927
median: 9.341
low: -10.534
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.289
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 53.233
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 3.457
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.289
 Dividend Rate 0.34
 Dividend Yield 0.002
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 4.093 %
 Revenue Growth 7.148 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -13.869 %
Revenue Growth YoY -31.15 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 85.552 %
BMI: 7.148 %
mean: 5.974 %
median: 2.73 %
low: -70.165 %
 Earnings Growth -10.0 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -140.0 %
Earnings Growth YoY -176.156 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 123.077 %
median: 15.102 %
mean: 11.893 %
BMI: -10.0 %
low: -44.651 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 41.08 %
Gross Margin QoQ -4.352 %
Gross Margin YoY 4.259 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 94.66 %
mean: 42.658 %
BMI: 41.08 %
median: 40.858 %
low: -8.379 %
 EBIT Margin 18.842 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -15.286 %
EBIT Margin YoY -1.66 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 57.92 %
mean: 18.865 %
BMI: 18.842 %
median: 18.208 %
low: -24.26 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 18.842 %
Return On Sales QoQ -15.286 %
Return On Sales YoY -1.66 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 57.92 %
median: 19.943 %
mean: 19.448 %
BMI: 18.842 %
low: -22.305 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 40.6 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.67 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 30.604 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 6.688 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 12.901 %
mean: 1.441 %
median: 1.305 %
BMI: 0.67 %
low: -14.521 %
 Free Cash Growth 35.218 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -196.285 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -56.745 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 534.416 %
mean: 239.119 %
median: 185.965 %
BMI: 35.218 %
low: -312.195 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.175
 Cash Flow Margin 16.82 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.158
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added
 Return On Assets (ROA) 3.767 %
Return On Assets QoQ -15.821 %
Return On Assets YoY -13.123 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.793 %
BMI: 3.767 %
median: 2.133 %
mean: 1.941 %
low: -9.75 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 5.624 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.051
Return On Equity QoQ -14.706 %
Return On Equity YoY -13.049 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.26
BMI: 0.051
mean: 0.047
median: 0.035
low: -0.14
 DuPont ROE 5.243 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.001 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -14.116 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -135.536 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 10.37 %
BMI: 5.001 %
mean: 3.027 %
median: 3.017 %
low: -6.012 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical setup favors a limited near-term rebound: MRO negative and a MACD cross above its signal line point to short-term upside pressure, and the recent dip relative to Bollinger bands supports mean-reversion. Volume above short- and medium-term averages strengthens the legitimacy of the bounce.

Countervailing forces include a strong ADX-backed trend and both directional indicators signaling downside dominance, plus price below the 50‑ and 200‑day averages and Ichimoku elements that imply available resistance through the short-to-intermediate horizon. These factors suggest any rally could meet significant technical resistance before reclaiming longer-term trend territory.

Expect price action over the next six weeks to show mean-reversion attempts bounded by the 20‑day average and the super trend upper at $186.37, with longer-term moving averages and valuation scrutiny likely to cap sustained advances absent fresh fundamental catalysts.

About Badger Meter, Inc.

Badger Meter, Inc. (NYSE:BMI) develops and manufactures innovative flow measurement and control solutions, primarily for water and fluid systems. Headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the company has been a key player in the industry since 1905. Badger Meter’s product lineup includes advanced mechanical and static water meters, enhanced by state-of-the-art radio and software technologies, specifically designed for municipal water utilities. Beyond municipal applications, Badger Meter provides a wide array of flow instrumentation products suitable for various uses, including the measurement of water, air, steam, and multiple liquids and gases. These products serve original equipment manufacturers and are essential for systems requiring accurate fluid measurement and control. The company’s technological suite features ORION Cellular endpoints, which support network as a service, and BEACON, a secure cloud-hosted software platform offering real-time water usage insights and management capabilities. Badger Meter emphasizes sustainability and efficiency through its water quality monitoring solutions and high-frequency pressure and leak detection sensors, which are vital for preventing and managing burst pipe and leak incidents. Catering to industries such as water utilities, commercial, and industrial sectors, Badger Meter ensures comprehensive support with training, project management, and technical assistance to deliver optimal performance and customer satisfaction.



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