Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE:BZH) Signals Short-Term Bounce Despite Structural Overvaluation

Beazer Homes shows evidence of a near-term recovery while fundamentals point to persistent valuation and leverage pressure. Mixed technicals create a narrow window for price stabilization even as cash dynamics and debt levels constrain upside.

Recent News

August 4, 2025 — Beazer opened Summit at Montana Vista in Buckeye, Arizona, marketing solar-included homes as standard at the new community.

August 27, 2025 — A large institutional holder reduced its position in Beazer Homes, according to a public filing reported that day.

Technical Analysis

ADX & Directional Indicators: ADX at 23.47 signals an emerging trend strength. DI+ recorded a peak-and-reversal, which signals bearish directional pressure; DI- also showed a peak-and-reversal, which, by contrast, signals a reduction in negative directional pressure. The combination suggests trend strength exists but directional conviction weakened, increasing the chance of short-term chop tied to the company’s over-valued status.

MACD & Momentum: MACD stands at 0.41 below the signal line at 0.44, and the MACD trend shows a peak-and-reversal, indicating bearish momentum. That bearish momentum tempers upside potential implied by other short-term indicators and aligns with WMDST’s assessment of over-valuation.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at -6.94 sits below zero, indicating the price trades below the MRO target and suggesting upward pressure toward that target; this creates a potential counterforce to the MACD-driven bearish momentum and supports a short-term corrective lift.

RSI: RSI at 55.34 with a peak-and-reversal signals fading relative-strength momentum. The mid-50 reading leaves room for a bounce but flags reduced upside momentum relative to the recent local peak.

Price, Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands: Price closed at $25.46 after a dip-and-reversal within the -2x standard-deviation Bollinger band, with the 12-day EMA at $25.75 and the 26-day EMA at $25.34. The 12-day EMA shows a peak-and-reversal, and price sits slightly below short-term EMA resistance, consistent with a short-lived recovery attempt against broader valuation headwinds.

Ichimoku & Breadth: Chikou span sits above the cloud and Tenkan/Kijun levels (Tenkan $25.91, Kijun $24.97) remain near the current price, which supports a near-term recovery narrative; however, the emergent ADX and weakening MACD cap conviction for sustained gains.

Volatility & Volume: 42-day beta at 2.66 and elevated short-term volume (10-day average 451,663 vs. today’s 537,090) point to amplified swings; expect sharper intraperiod moves even if directional range stays narrow relative to broader structural valuation concerns.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings And Recent Results: For the quarter ended June 30, 2025 the company reported a net loss from continuing operations of $0.3 million and an inventory impairment/abandonment charge of $10.3 million. Management noted book value per share rose above $41 through repurchases. Reported EPS metrics in the provided data show EPS actual $0.30 versus an estimate of $0.42, an EPS surprise of -28.57%.

Profitability & Margins: Operating (EBIT) margin registers at -0.68%, which sits below the industry peer mean of 7.472% and below the industry peer median of 6.627%. Operating margin declined roughly -128.75% QoQ and -114.20% YoY on the provided change rates, underscoring recent margin compression tied to impairment and sales pace dynamics.

Growth & Revenue: Total revenue recorded $545,367,000 with YoY revenue growth showing -3.53%. Revenue trends show a QoQ decline of approximately -117.19% on the provided metric scale, reflecting the weaker sales pace noted by management in certain markets.

Liquidity & Working Capital: Cash and short-term investments total $82,932,000 with a current ratio of 10.14 and a cash ratio of 0.342. The current ratio sits above the industry peer mean of 4.75589. Cash conversion cycle runs at 407.68 days, well above the industry peer mean of 145.39 days, indicating substantial working capital tied in inventory and build cycles.

Debt & Leverage: Total debt $1,161,947,000 and net debt $1,060,241,000 produce a debt-to-assets ratio of 42.84%, above the industry peer mean of 27.492%. Debt-to-EBITDA stands at roughly 1,349.5x given the modest EBITDA base, highlighting leverage sensitivity and constrained capacity to absorb further shocks absent material EBITDA expansion or deleveraging.

Cash Flow & Free Cash: Operating cash flow for the period shows a deficit of $62,262,000 and free cash flow of -$70,228,000; free cash flow yield sits at -9.93%. Free cash metrics underscored by negative operating cash flow reinforce the valuation disconnect between market price and cash-generative realities.

Valuation Context: Forward PE at 17.75 contrasts with trailing PE of 76.11 and a forward EPS of $1.2225, signaling that consensus models expect earnings improvement versus the recent reported quarter. P/B ratio at 0.58x falls below the industry peer mean of 1.7165 and median of 1.10856. WMDST values the stock as over-valued, given persistent negative free cash flow, elevated leverage metrics, and a mixture of near-term operational pressures despite management’s book-value gains via buybacks.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-31
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 108.5 M
 Operating Cash Flow -62.26 M
 Capital Expenditures -7.97 M
 Change In Working Capital -76.42 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -18.05 M
 End Period Cash Flow 90.4 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 545.4 M
 Forward Revenue -15.29 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 472.8 M
 Depreciation 4.6 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 4.6 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 549.1 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 72.6 M
 EBITDA 861.0 K
 EBIT -3.71 M
 Operating Income -3.71 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income
 Income Before Tax -2.51 M
 Tax Provision -2.18 M
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income -324.00 K
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -324.00 K
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.42
 EPS Actual 0.30
 EPS Difference -0.12
 EPS Surprise -28.571 %
 Forward EPS 1.22
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.7 B
 Intangible Assets 11.4 M
 Net Tangible Assets 1.2 B
 Total Current Assets 2.5 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 82.9 M
 Cash 82.9 M
 Net Receivables 76.1 M
 Inventory 2.3 B
 Long-Term Investments 41.8 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 184.5 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 242.6 M
 Net Debt 1.1 B
 Total Debt 1.2 B
 Total Liabilities 1.5 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.2 B
 Retained Earnings 393.8 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 40.94
 Shares Outstanding 29.726 M
 Revenue Per-Share 18.35
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 707.1 M
 Enterprise Value 1.8 B
 Enterprise Multiple 2074.498
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 2133.734 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 7782.097 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA BZH: 2074.498
high: 80.394
mean: 40.286
median: 34.768
low: -129.212
 EV/R 3.275
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.229
 Asset To Liability 1.814
 Debt To Capital 0.488
 Debt To Assets 0.428
Debt To Assets QoQ 3.301 %
Debt To Assets YoY 101900.0 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.56
BZH: 0.428
mean: 0.275
median: 0.255
low: 0.018
 Debt To Equity 0.955
Debt To Equity QoQ 6.496 %
Debt To Equity YoY 102560.215 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.287
BZH: 0.955
mean: 0.505
median: 0.358
low: -0.375
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.581
Price To Book QoQ 8.557 %
Price To Book YoY -26.007 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 3.537
mean: 1.716
median: 1.109
BZH: 0.581
low: 0.099
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 76.113
Price To Earnings QoQ 47.38 %
Price To Earnings YoY 125.001 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 92.019
BZH: 76.113
mean: 52.311
median: 38.998
low: -84.24
 PE/G Ratio -2.392
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1.297
Price To Sales QoQ 11.521 %
Price To Sales YoY -16.525 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 9.816
mean: 3.066
median: 2.939
BZH: 1.297
low: 0.232
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 17.748
Forward PE/G -0.558
Forward P/S -0.046
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 36.162
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.203
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -5.54 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -12.833 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.46
mean: 0.247
median: 0.227
BZH: 0.203
low: 0.004
 Receivables Turnover 7.575
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -7.153 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -24.466 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 13.877
BZH: 7.575
mean: 2.609
median: 2.212
low: 0.34
 Inventory Turnover 0.209
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -4.16 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -10.265 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.767
median: 0.785
mean: 0.702
BZH: 0.209
low: 0.208
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 12.046
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 407.676
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -14.726 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -0.777 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 458.012
BZH: 407.676
mean: 145.387
median: 137.679
low: -59.268
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.246
 CapEx To Revenue -0.015
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.743
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 2.4 B
 Net Invested Capital 2.4 B
 Invested Capital 2.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.2 B
 Net Working Capital 2.2 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.342
 Current Ratio 10.142
Current Ratio QoQ 5.575 %
Current Ratio YoY 9.701 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 13.455
BZH: 10.142
mean: 4.756
median: 2.126
low: 0.847
 Quick Ratio 0.693
Quick Ratio QoQ -1.427 %
Quick Ratio YoY 0.686 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 3.567
mean: 1.487
median: 1.176
BZH: 0.693
low: 0.226
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 1349.532
 Cost Of Debt 0.781 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -0.332
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -127.751 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -113.007 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 35.712
mean: 13.576
median: 8.095
BZH: -0.332
low: -43.92
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.258
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 35.117
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.169 %
 Revenue Growth -3.533 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -117.19 %
Revenue Growth YoY -135.337 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 32.726 %
mean: 10.198 %
median: 9.902 %
BZH: -3.533 %
low: -18.327 %
 Earnings Growth -31.818 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -109.943 %
Earnings Growth YoY 5.501 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 100.0 %
median: 20.71 %
mean: 12.715 %
BZH: -31.818 %
low: -250.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 13.308 %
Gross Margin QoQ -12.516 %
Gross Margin YoY -23.261 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 100.0 %
mean: 24.394 %
median: 21.987 %
BZH: 13.308 %
low: 0.657 %
 EBIT Margin -0.68 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -128.753 %
EBIT Margin YoY -114.202 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 46.356 %
mean: 7.472 %
median: 6.627 %
BZH: -0.68 %
low: -34.573 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -0.68 %
Return On Sales QoQ -128.753 %
Return On Sales YoY -114.202 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 19.96 %
mean: 7.292 %
median: 6.734 %
BZH: -0.68 %
low: -34.007 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -70.23 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -9.931 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 1380.03 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 3.718 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 23.166 %
median: 1.701 %
mean: 1.552 %
BZH: -9.931 %
low: -16.507 %
 Free Cash Growth 1492.111 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -1633.201 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 333.543 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA BZH: 1492.111 %
high: 179.315 %
median: -114.395 %
mean: -126.486 %
low: -276.962 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 216.753
 Cash Flow Margin -11.47 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 193.071
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.012 %
Return On Assets QoQ -102.469 %
Return On Assets YoY -101.127 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 8.328 %
mean: 1.153 %
median: 1.078 %
BZH: -0.012 %
low: -10.206 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -0.15 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.0
Return On Equity QoQ -102.596 %
Return On Equity YoY -101.169 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.061
median: 0.025
mean: 0.023
BZH: -0.0
low: -0.214
 DuPont ROE -0.026 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -0.124 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -123.755 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -99.658 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 4.428 %
median: 2.07 %
mean: 1.82 %
BZH: -0.124 %
low: -11.38 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect heightened two-way volatility and a limited rally window over the next six weeks. Short-term technical drivers—negative MRO, a price dip-and-reversal inside the lower Bollinger band, and Ichimoku signals—favor a corrective lift toward short-term EMA resistance, but weakening MACD and directional indicator reversals cap sustained upside. Elevated 42-day beta (2.66) and above-average volume imply sharper intraperiod moves; traders should monitor MACD relative to its signal line, DI+ behavior, and any changes in operating cash flow or inventory impairments disclosed by management. Fundamental constraints—negative free cash flow, high debt-to-EBITDA, and a current valuation labeled over-valued by WMDST—suggest rallies may remain volatile and susceptible to profit-taking absent material operational or cash-flow improvement.

About Beazer Homes USA, Inc.

Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE:BZH) designs, constructs, and sells single-family and multi-family homes across the United States. Established in 1985 and headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, the company operates under brand names such as Beazer Homes, Gatherings, and Choice Plans. These brands offer diverse features and customizable options to accommodate modern homebuyers’ needs. Beazer Homes maintains a significant market presence in regions including Arizona, California, Nevada, Texas, and various East Coast states. The company integrates energy-efficient building practices with thoughtful architectural design, ensuring that its homes are both aesthetically pleasing and environmentally sustainable. The company emphasizes customer satisfaction by employing skilled new home sales counselors and collaborating with independent brokers to deliver personalized service. By prioritizing quality, value, and integrity, Beazer Homes consistently builds communities that align with the aspirations and lifestyles of its homeowners, establishing itself as a reliable name in the American homebuilding industry.



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