Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) Accelerates AI-Led Growth After Strategic Partnerships, Near-Term Momentum

Elastic shows accelerating product-led momentum and strong cash resources that support further deployment into Search AI and security use cases; near-term technical momentum faded modestly after a recent run. The current valuation as determined by WMDST classifies the stock as under-valued.

Recent News

On July 30, 2026, Elastic announced an expanded collaboration with OpenAI to connect large language models to enterprise data for enhanced search and retrieval functionality.

On July 31, 2026, Elastic released security platform updates focused on AI triage and endpoint tooling designed to streamline detection and investigation workflows.

On August 13, 2026, Oppenheimer raised its price target for Elastic in an analyst note highlighting improved go-to-market traction.

On July 22, 2026, Morgan Stanley published a downgrade for Elastic while noting sector re-rating dynamics.

On August 27, 2026, Elastic posted proxy materials for its 2026 Annual General Meeting and related governance filings.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 31.37 signals a strong directional trend; DI+ (34.01) exceeds DI- (19.71), so directional bias remains bullish, but DI+ is decreasing, indicating the bullish directional momentum has begun to weaken while DI- has completed a peak-and-reversal and moved lower.

MACD sits at 2.63 below the signal line at 3.40 with a decreasing MACD trend, reflecting waning bullish momentum and the absence of a bullish MACD cross.

MRO at 16.13 reads positive, implying price sits above the model target and faces a likely corrective move toward target levels if momentum fails to re-accelerate.

RSI at 60.01 with a decreasing trend shows momentum rolling off from neutral-to-leaning bullish territory, consistent with a consolidation or mild pullback risk in the near term.

Price structure remains above key moving averages: last close $89.22 exceeds the 200-day average $64.47 and the 50-day average $77.89, while the 12-day EMA registered a dip & reversal. Price trades below the 1x Bollinger upper band ($91.73) and beneath the super trend upper band ($94.30), indicating room to the upside but contingent on momentum re-acceleration.

Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue reached $478,113,000 for the period ending July 31, 2026, with QoQ revenue growth of 33.20% and year-over-year revenue change of -11.96%—QoQ acceleration reflects seasonality and product traction, while YoY compares to a tougher prior period.

EPS came in at $0.70 versus an estimate of $0.58, producing an EPS surprise of 20.69% and an EPS beat magnitude of $0.12, which supports improved near-term profitability expectations.

Gross margin registered 74.50%, above the industry peer mean of 68.88% and the industry peer median of 67.57%, signaling strong unit economics in core search and data products.

Operating and EBIT metrics remained negative: operating margin -0.76% and EBIT margin -2.30%. The EBIT margin sits well below the industry peer mean of 16.83% and the industry peer median of 14.34%, though it stands above the industry peer low of -12.04%, indicating progress on cost structure but continued gap to peer profitability norms.

Balance sheet and cash flow show strength: cash and short-term investments $1,461,042,000 and operating cash flow $132,004,000 with free cash flow $131,414,000 and a free cash flow yield of 1.83% (free cash flow yield improved YoY). The current ratio at 1.81 exceeds the industry peer mean of 1.19, supporting liquidity for continued product investment or opportunistic capital allocation.

Leverage remains moderate: total debt $595,775,000, debt-to-assets 19.85% below the industry peer mean of 27.85%, and debt-to-equity 0.46, keeping interest burden manageable given a cost of debt near 1.03% and an interest coverage ratio still negative due to GAAP losses.

Valuation metrics show a high trailing P/E of 97.41x and P/B at 5.53x against an industry peer mean P/B of 8.05x; forward P/E stands at 59.82x with a PEG near 6.60 reflecting elevated expectations for future earnings growth. WMDST values the stock as under-valued based on the combination of strong margins, improving cash conversion, and the balance sheet cushion relative to current operating profitability.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-07-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-08-27
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-11-26
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 770.5 M
 Operating Cash Flow 132.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -590.00 K
 Change In Working Capital 34.8 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 111.3 M
 End Period Cash Flow 881.8 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 478.1 M
 Forward Revenue -742.65 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 121.9 M
 Depreciation 3.4 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 3.4 M
 Research and Development 112.5 M
 Total Operating Expenses 481.8 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 356.2 M
 EBITDA -7.62 M
 EBIT -10.98 M
 Operating Income -3.65 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 6.3 M
 Net Interest Income -6.28 M
 Income Before Tax -17.26 M
 Tax Provision -529.00 K
 Tax Rate 3.0 %
 Net Income -16.73 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -16.73 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.58
 EPS Actual 0.70
 EPS Difference 0.12
 EPS Surprise 20.69 %
 Forward EPS 0.99
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 3.0 B
 Intangible Assets 367.0 M
 Net Tangible Assets 929.8 M
 Total Current Assets 1.9 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.5 B
 Cash 879.9 M
 Net Receivables 236.4 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 13.5 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 14.2 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 1.0 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 595.8 M
 Total Liabilities 1.7 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.3 B
 Retained Earnings -748.68 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 12.34
 Shares Outstanding 105.121 M
 Revenue Per-Share 4.55
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 7.2 B
 Enterprise Value 6.3 B
 Enterprise Multiple -827.254
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -94.774 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -190.533 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 489.121
mean: 83.771
median: 55.53
low: -234.197
ESTC: -827.254
 EV/R 13.183
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.315
 Asset To Liability 1.761
 Debt To Capital 0.315
 Debt To Assets 0.198
Debt To Assets QoQ 5.772 %
Debt To Assets YoY -15.692 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.839
median: 0.318
mean: 0.278
ESTC: 0.198
low: 0.004
 Debt To Equity 0.459
Debt To Equity QoQ -0.87 %
Debt To Equity YoY -24.897 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.522
mean: 1.171
median: 1.088
ESTC: 0.459
low: -1.496
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 5.527
Price To Book QoQ 26.559 %
Price To Book YoY -39.068 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 21.929
mean: 8.051
median: 7.413
ESTC: 5.527
low: -11.599
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 97.413
Price To Earnings QoQ 11.652 %
Price To Earnings YoY -29.377 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 321.088
mean: 138.435
ESTC: 97.413
median: 74.215
low: -48.795
 PE/G Ratio 6.603
 Price To Sales (P/S) 14.993
Price To Sales QoQ 21.199 %
Price To Sales YoY -29.34 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 78.276
mean: 38.476
median: 23.689
ESTC: 14.993
low: 2.257
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 59.821
Forward PE/G 4.055
Forward P/S -9.708
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 34.804
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.155
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -3.623 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -4.282 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.227
ESTC: 0.155
mean: 0.103
median: 0.072
low: 0.062
 Receivables Turnover 1.364
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 24.397 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -1.832 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.24
median: 1.776
mean: 1.734
ESTC: 1.364
low: 0.537
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 66.88
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 57.512
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 85.679
ESTC: 57.512
median: 45.846
mean: 45.198
low: 12.387
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.569
 CapEx To Revenue -0.001
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.176
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.9 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets 929.8 M
 Net Working Capital 840.4 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.409
 Current Ratio 1.81
Current Ratio QoQ 7.81 %
Current Ratio YoY -13.18 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.826
ESTC: 1.81
mean: 1.191
median: 1.171
low: 0.282
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -78.196
 Cost Of Debt 1.026 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -1.748
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 210.059 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -275.014 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 227.849
median: 4.926
mean: 0.371
ESTC: -1.748
low: -238.9
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.212
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 9.368
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -4.783 %
 Revenue Growth 6.087 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 3319.663 %
Revenue Growth YoY -11.961 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 13.591 %
ESTC: 6.087 %
mean: 5.755 %
median: 5.61 %
low: -3.3 %
 Earnings Growth 14.754 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -98.087 %
Earnings Growth YoY -46.659 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 90.0 %
mean: 15.149 %
ESTC: 14.754 %
median: 10.368 %
low: -39.394 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 74.499 %
Gross Margin QoQ -1.139 %
Gross Margin YoY -2.875 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 91.398 %
ESTC: 74.499 %
mean: 68.878 %
median: 67.566 %
low: 60.026 %
 EBIT Margin -2.296 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 193.982 %
EBIT Margin YoY -250.36 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 44.293 %
mean: 16.828 %
median: 14.336 %
ESTC: -2.296 %
low: -12.038 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -0.764 %
Return On Sales QoQ -79.017 %
Return On Sales YoY -66.388 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 35.265 %
mean: 15.611 %
median: 15.159 %
ESTC: -0.764 %
low: -17.001 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 131.4 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.833 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -31.783 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 55.076 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.032 %
ESTC: 1.833 %
median: 0.198 %
mean: -0.019 %
low: -1.177 %
 Free Cash Growth -12.282 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -104.753 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -153.956 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 188.094 %
median: 59.137 %
mean: 54.437 %
ESTC: -12.282 %
low: -103.769 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -7.855
 Cash Flow Margin 46.051 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -13.161
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.544 %
Return On Assets QoQ -103.489 %
Return On Assets YoY -43.451 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.949 %
median: 1.685 %
mean: 0.888 %
ESTC: -0.544 %
low: -5.177 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -0.559 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.013
Return On Equity QoQ -103.778 %
Return On Equity YoY -49.072 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.145
median: 0.077
mean: 0.037
ESTC: -0.013
low: -0.134
 DuPont ROE -1.3 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -0.57 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 400.0 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -275.385 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.231 %
median: 2.149 %
mean: 1.768 %
ESTC: -0.57 %
low: -2.52 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect near-term consolidation with asymmetric upside potential: momentum indicators point to a cooling of the rally, so price may oscillate between short-term support near the 20-day average ($87.83) and resistance around the 1x Bollinger upper band near $91.7–$94.3. A re-acceleration in MACD and a stabilization of RSI above 60 would signal renewed directional continuation; absent that, MRO’s positive reading suggests corrective pressure toward valuation-aligned targets. Liquidity and product news flow—particularly AI partnerships and security product adoption—will likely drive directional episodes over the next six weeks rather than steady trending moves.

About Elastic N.V.

Elastic NV (NYSE:ESTC) develops search-powered solutions that transform data into actionable insights. Headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, and founded in 2012, Elastic provides hosted and managed solutions that function seamlessly across hybrid, public, private, and multi-cloud environments. The company’s core offering, the Elastic Stack, comprises a suite of software products that enable the ingestion, storage, search, analysis, and visualization of data from diverse sources. The Elastic Stack features Elasticsearch, a versatile search engine and data store that handles textual, numerical, geospatial, and unstructured data. Kibana offers an intuitive interface for managing and configuring the Elastic Stack, while the Elasticsearch Relevance Engine enhances search capabilities with AI algorithms. Additional components like Elastic Agent, Logstash, and Beats extend the platform’s data processing and protection functionalities. Elastic’s solutions address a variety of use cases, including building advanced search applications, monitoring application performance, analyzing logs and metrics, and enhancing security measures. By empowering organizations to effectively utilize their data, Elastic supports innovation and maintains a global presence in the technology sector.



© 2026 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.