Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) Poised For Near-Term Recovery As Profitability Strengthens

Centene shows improving profitability and ample liquidity while short-term technicals signal a consolidation phase; fundamentals support a valuation gap that favors recovery over time.

Recent News

On July 28, 2026 Centene released its second-quarter corporate update and raised full-year guidance. Subsequent reports in August noted a planned phased leadership transition as the chief financial officer will step down in December and retire at the end of 2027, and the company announced executive-level changes including a new chief information officer; separate reports described a voluntary separation program and workforce actions tied to cost management and restructuring.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 10.23 indicates no established trend, implying price action will likely remain range-bound absent a pickup in directional momentum; this moderates the near-term upside implied by the valuation.

Directional indicators show mixed signals: DI+ at 23.67 has peaked and reversed, which reads as bearish for trend initiation, while DI- at 22.61 also peaked and reversed, a technically bullish sign; together these opposing DI signals point to rotational pressure and short-term uncertainty rather than a clear directional breakout.

MACD sits below its signal line (MACD 0.27 vs signal 0.36) and the MACD trend has peaked and reversed, indicating declining bullish momentum and no confirmed MACD bullish crossover; momentum structure favors consolidation or pullback before renewed upside.

MRO at 21.76 (positive) signals price currently trades above WMDST’s target framework, implying downward pressure toward the firm valuation level; momentum magnitude suggests a moderate near-term correction potential rather than an extreme reversal.

RSI at 52.17 with a peak-and-reversal pattern indicates neutral momentum that has begun to weaken; the indicator fails to show overbought stress but confirms reduced buying intensity.

Price dynamics: the recent close at $64.99 sits below the 20-day average ($66.31) and the 50-day average ($65.45) while remaining above the 200-day average ($51.75); the 12-day EMA shows a short-term peak-and-reversal pattern, so short-term averages offer resistance while the 200-day average provides structural support.

Bollinger positioning places price just above the 1x lower band ($64.61) with a super-trend support at $62.94, constraining near-term downside; volume sits modestly below short- and long-term averages, reducing conviction behind directional moves.

Fundamental Analysis

Revenue expanded sharply: YoY revenue growth equals 59.9% and QoQ revenue growth equals 15.5%, reflecting meaningful top-line momentum that supports improved margin recovery and cash generation.

Profitability shows progress but lags peer central tendencies: operating margin at 2.236% and EBIT margin at 3.059% trail the industry peer mean operating margin of 8.284% and industry peer mean EBIT margin of 7.462%; margin QoQ dynamics show deterioration in the quarter-to-quarter margin change for EBIT (-32.487% QoQ) despite year-over-year improvements being negative for EBIT margin (-18.185% YoY), highlighting volatile margin recovery during cost and mix shifts.

Earnings delivered a material beat: adjusted EPS came in at $2.51 versus an estimate of $1.08, a $1.43 beat representing roughly a 132% upside to estimate; management concurrently raised full-year EPS guidance, reflecting operational improvement and some one-time benefits reported with the quarter.

Cash and leverage offer balance-sheet flexibility: cash and short-term investments total $27.06 billion while total debt stands at $16.105 billion, producing a debt-to-assets ratio near 19.4% and debt-to-equity around 0.714; interest coverage near 10.7x supports debt service capacity even as coverage showed QoQ weakness.

Free cash flow generation appears healthy relative to peers: free cash flow yield equals 11.49% versus the industry peer mean of 2.03%, indicating strong cash conversion on the current market cap and supporting valuation upside if cash flow sustains. Operating cash flow reached $3.59 billion for the period and the cash conversion ratio sits at 9.04, reinforcing liquidity strength.

Operational efficiency and working capital: asset turnover at 0.653 compares favorably to the industry peer mean of 0.411, and the cash conversion cycle at approximately -3.8 days signals efficient cash collection and payable management; these operational metrics undergird the company’s ability to fund operations without excessive external financing.

Valuation and WMDST view: WMDST values the stock as under-valued based on current free cash flow metrics, adjusted earnings power, and a market enterprise multiple near 9.68; the combination of robust cash generation and a positive guidance revision supports the view that market price may understate intrinsic value over longer horizons.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-07-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-10-27
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 21.4 B
 Operating Cash Flow 3.6 B
 Capital Expenditures -174.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 2.1 B
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 2.9 B
 End Period Cash Flow 24.3 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 53.6 B
 Forward Revenue 8.1 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 49.0 B
 Depreciation 139.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 300.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 52.4 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 4.6 B
 EBITDA 1.9 B
 EBIT 1.6 B
 Operating Income 1.2 B
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 153.0 M
 Net Interest Income -153.00 M
 Income Before Tax 1.5 B
 Tax Provision 399.0 M
 Tax Rate 26.9 %
 Net Income 1.1 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 1.1 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.08
 EPS Actual 2.51
 EPS Difference 1.43
 EPS Surprise 132.407 %
 Forward EPS 1.34
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 83.0 B
 Intangible Assets 15.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets 7.5 B
 Total Current Assets 46.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 27.1 B
 Cash 24.2 B
 Net Receivables 18.1 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 2.9 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 18.0 B
 Short-Term Debt 75.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 40.8 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 16.1 B
 Total Liabilities 60.4 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 22.6 B
 Retained Earnings 11.3 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 45.67
 Shares Outstanding 493.987 M
 Revenue Per-Share 108.46
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 29.7 B
 Enterprise Value 18.8 B
 Enterprise Multiple 9.682
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 113.768 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -87.636 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 87.909
mean: 34.57
median: 32.178
CNC: 9.682
low: -86.959
 EV/R 0.35
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.679
 Asset To Liability 1.375
 Debt To Capital 0.417
 Debt To Assets 0.194
Debt To Assets QoQ -3.803 %
Debt To Assets YoY -4.64 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.93
mean: 0.38
median: 0.301
CNC: 0.194
low: 0.006
 Debt To Equity 0.714
Debt To Equity QoQ -6.574 %
Debt To Equity YoY 11.296 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.844
mean: 0.887
median: 0.748
CNC: 0.714
low: -1.417
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.318
Price To Book QoQ 48.748 %
Price To Book YoY 105.646 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 15.571
mean: 2.251
median: 1.767
CNC: 1.318
low: -0.408
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 23.974
Price To Earnings QoQ 109.344 %
Price To Earnings YoY -126.209 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 152.36
mean: 47.716
median: 45.322
CNC: 23.974
low: -81.789
 PE/G Ratio -0.939
 Price To Sales (P/S) 0.555
Price To Sales QoQ 46.0 %
Price To Sales YoY 54.013 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 11.857
mean: 2.5
median: 1.655
CNC: 0.555
low: 0.097
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 42.333
Forward PE/G -1.659
Forward P/S 3.755
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -3.789
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.653
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.186 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 16.117 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.051
CNC: 0.653
median: 0.419
mean: 0.412
low: 0.106
 Receivables Turnover 2.857
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 7.361 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 28.935 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 7.49
mean: 3.724
median: 3.304
CNC: 2.857
low: 0.429
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 31.935
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -3.834
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -178.591 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 133.289
median: 17.698
mean: 11.545
CNC: -3.834
low: -106.668
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 9.041
 CapEx To Revenue -0.003
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.252
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 38.6 B
 Net Invested Capital 38.7 B
 Invested Capital 38.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets 7.5 B
 Net Working Capital 5.9 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.664
 Current Ratio 1.145
Current Ratio QoQ 1.952 %
Current Ratio YoY 4.322 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.421
CNC: 1.145
mean: 1.055
median: 0.934
low: 0.278
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 8.306
 Cost Of Debt 0.689 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 10.712
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -22.367 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -2193.251 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 26.066
CNC: 10.712
mean: 6.282
median: 6.254
low: -9.603
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.095
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 35.768
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.263 %
 Revenue Growth 7.278 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 1554.091 %
Revenue Growth YoY 59.886 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 17.804 %
CNC: 7.278 %
median: 3.075 %
mean: 1.498 %
low: -6.05 %
 Earnings Growth -25.519 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -93.34 %
Earnings Growth YoY -78.298 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 108.333 %
median: 0.389 %
mean: -3.101 %
CNC: -25.519 %
low: -112.5 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 8.587 %
Gross Margin QoQ -22.834 %
Gross Margin YoY 42.028 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 96.512 %
mean: 29.468 %
median: 14.844 %
CNC: 8.587 %
low: 7.168 %
 EBIT Margin 3.059 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -32.487 %
EBIT Margin YoY -1818.539 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 25.559 %
mean: 7.462 %
median: 4.462 %
CNC: 3.059 %
low: -12.904 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 2.236 %
Return On Sales QoQ -39.989 %
Return On Sales YoY -370.375 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 23.787 %
mean: 8.284 %
median: 4.433 %
CNC: 2.236 %
low: -12.904 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 3.4 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 11.492 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -47.647 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 27.945 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA CNC: 11.492 %
high: 6.209 %
mean: 2.03 %
median: 1.947 %
low: -4.3 %
 Free Cash Growth -18.003 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -101.023 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -222.544 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 293.51 %
median: 23.352 %
CNC: -18.003 %
mean: -35.744 %
low: -972.093 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 3.131
 Cash Flow Margin 7.23 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 3.551
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.329 %
Return On Assets QoQ -31.916 %
Return On Assets YoY -555.137 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.836 %
mean: 1.507 %
CNC: 1.329 %
median: 1.176 %
low: -2.927 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 3.879 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.048
Return On Equity QoQ -32.759 %
Return On Equity YoY -623.944 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.177
CNC: 0.048
median: 0.037
mean: -0.011
low: -0.286
 DuPont ROE 4.96 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.099 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -29.408 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -2125.49 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.881 %
mean: 3.236 %
CNC: 3.099 %
median: 2.555 %
low: -5.362 %

Six-Week Outlook

Short-term technicals favor consolidation with a modest bearish skew: declining MACD momentum, a peaked RSI, and MRO signaling price above target point to limited upside and an elevated chance of a shallow pullback toward the $63–$63 threshold of technical support (super-trend and lower Bollinger proximity). The broader fundamental backdrop—strong revenue growth, a sizable EPS beat, elevated free cash flow yield, and a sizable cash balance—provides a counterweight that should cap deep declines and supports the view that any near-term weakness may present setups for a resumption of recovery once momentum indicators stabilize.

About Centene Corporation

Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) delivers comprehensive healthcare services, primarily targeting under-insured and uninsured populations across the United States. Established in 1984 and based in St. Louis, Missouri, Centene develops a wide array of health plans through its Medicaid, Medicare, and Commercial segments. The Medicaid segment offers expanded health plans, children’s health insurance programs, and long-term services. In the Medicare segment, Centene addresses the needs of seniors with special needs plans, Medicare supplements, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides marketplace insurance products for individuals and businesses, ensuring extensive access to healthcare services. Centene actively participates in government healthcare contracts, including the TRICARE program for military families, highlighting its dedication to diverse communities. The company also manages clinical healthcare services, pharmacies, and provides dental and speech therapy, promoting a holistic healthcare approach. By collaborating with primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers, Centene aims to deliver personalized, high-quality care to millions of Americans, emphasizing innovation and community well-being.



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