The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (NYSE:EL) Poised For Near-Term Downside Despite Fiscal Strength

Near-term technical momentum shows exhaustion while fiscal results deliver mixed fundamental support; valuation sits above WMDST’s assessed fair range. Pressure likely to persist until momentum indicators stabilize or cash-flow metrics reaccelerate.

Recent News

On August 19, 2026 The Estée Lauder Companies reported fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results, citing full-year net sales growth, gains across key prestige brands and regions, and completion of restructuring actions under its PRGP program. The company held a webcast and released detailed financials the same day. Separately, a $210 million securities class-action settlement set a claims deadline of August 5, 2026 for eligible investors. The company also convened a 2026 Supplier Summit highlighting partnerships and operational priorities.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 29.33 signals a strong trend environment without directionality; the strength increases sensitivity to momentum signals when they appear.

DI+ at 29.95 shows a decreasing pattern, which reads as bearish; DI- exhibited a dip-and-reversal, also a bearish development under directional indicator rules, reinforcing short-term downside bias.

MACD sits below its signal line (MACD 2.67 vs signal 3.52) and shows a peak-and-reversal pattern, indicating bearish momentum and the absence of a bullish MACD crossover.

MRO at 13.98 remains positive, which indicates price sits above the model target and implies a likelihood of downward mean reversion over the near term.

RSI at 57.19 with a peak-and-reversal pattern points to fading buying momentum rather than oversold conditions, consistent with other bearish momentum signals.

Price trades below the 20-day average ($101.42) while holding above the 200-day average ($92.17); that split suggests short-term weakness inside a longer-term support band near the 200-day level.

Bollinger positioning shows price ($98.22) close to the lower 1x standard-deviation band ($98.01), indicating compressed volatility with limited immediate upside cushion toward the upper band ($104.84).

Volume has trended below longer-term averages (current volume ~2.07M vs 50- and 200-day averages near 2.85M and 3.80M), signaling muted participation during the recent consolidation; 42-day beta = 1.27, 52-week beta = 1.44, reflecting above-market sensitivity.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue and margins: Total revenue stands at $3,712,000,000 with YoY revenue growth of 7.81% and QoQ deterioration in sequential growth. Gross margin measures 76.40%, up 1.93 percentage points YoY. Operating margin equals 15.00%, and EBIT margin equals 7.03%.

Profitability context: EBIT margin at 7.03% sits above the industry peer mean of -0.106% and well above the industry peer median of -9.692%, indicating relative operating efficiency versus the peer set reported. Operating margin improved QoQ by 4.37 percentage points and rose YoY by 62.41% (percentage-change basis reported), reflecting margin recovery from prior-year pressures.

Cash flow and liquidity: Operating cash flow totaled $412,000,000 with free cash flow of $310,000,000 and a free cash flow yield of 1.00%. Cash and short-term investments equal $3,126,000,000 and the cash conversion ratio registers 2.34. Current ratio sits at 1.27 and quick ratio at 0.94; both declined modestly QoQ.

Capital structure and leverage: Total debt equals $9,300,000,000 with net debt $4,186,000,000. Debt-to-EBITDA reads 20.13x and debt-to-equity 2.33x, indicating elevated leverage relative to operating earnings. Interest coverage is 3.18x but trended down QoQ.

Earnings and market multiples: Reported EPS of $0.39 exceeded the $0.32 estimate, a 21.88% surprise. Trailing PE equals 93.9x while forward PE sits near 120.8x; price-to-book stands at 7.74x. Asset turnover registers 0.189, consistent with a premium, low-capital-intensity business model in prestige beauty.

WMDST valuation: The current valuation assessment classifies the stock as over-valued. WMDST’s mean price target ($94.39) sits below the last close ($98.22), suggesting limited fundamental upside against the present price when combining cash-flow yields and leverage metrics.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-08-19
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-11-18
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 3.1 B
 Operating Cash Flow 412.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -102.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 34.0 M
 Dividends Paid -126.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta 44.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 3.1 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 3.7 B
 Forward Revenue 3.6 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 876.0 M
 Depreciation 201.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 201.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 3.2 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 2.8 B
 EBITDA 462.0 M
 EBIT 261.0 M
 Operating Income 557.0 M
 Interest Income 15.0 M
 Interest Expense 82.0 M
 Net Interest Income -67.00 M
 Income Before Tax 179.0 M
 Tax Provision 90.0 M
 Tax Rate 40.0 %
 Net Income 89.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 89.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.32
 EPS Actual 0.39
 EPS Difference 0.07
 EPS Surprise 21.875 %
 Forward EPS 0.96
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 19.7 B
 Intangible Assets 5.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.76 B
 Total Current Assets 7.5 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 3.1 B
 Cash 3.1 B
 Net Receivables 1.7 B
 Inventory 1.9 B
 Long-Term Investments 1.8 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.3 B
 Short-Term Debt 502.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 5.9 B
 Net Debt 4.2 B
 Total Debt 9.3 B
 Total Liabilities 15.7 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 4.0 B
 Retained Earnings 11.6 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 11.04
 Shares Outstanding 361.795 M
 Revenue Per-Share 10.26
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 30.9 B
 Enterprise Value 37.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple 80.282
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 9.885 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 42.663 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 139.166
EL: 80.282
median: 19.712
mean: -1.913
low: -57.731
 EV/R 9.992
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 4.925
 Asset To Liability 1.255
 Debt To Capital 0.7
 Debt To Assets 0.473
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.108 %
Debt To Assets YoY 0.246 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.759
EL: 0.473
median: 0.299
mean: 0.243
low: 0.019
 Debt To Equity 2.329
Debt To Equity QoQ -0.016 %
Debt To Equity YoY 7.865 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA EL: 2.329
high: 1.108
mean: 0.443
median: 0.207
low: -1.293
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 7.743
Price To Book QoQ -19.194 %
Price To Book YoY 45.091 %
Price To Book IPRWA EL: 7.743
high: 3.53
mean: 2.244
median: 2.201
low: -1.999
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 93.904
Price To Earnings QoQ -21.744 %
Price To Earnings YoY -5.313 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 211.039
EL: 93.904
mean: 72.926
median: 47.955
low: -82.086
 PE/G Ratio 41.791
 Price To Sales (P/S) 8.329
Price To Sales QoQ -8.807 %
Price To Sales YoY 27.518 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 10.758
EL: 8.329
median: 6.293
mean: 6.248
low: 0.446
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 120.834
Forward PE/G 53.776
Forward P/S 10.311
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.072
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.189
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -12.972 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 5.495 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.832
mean: 0.227
median: 0.221
EL: 0.189
low: 0.081
 Receivables Turnover 2.182
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -8.666 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 4.563 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 18.698
mean: 3.984
median: 2.462
EL: 2.182
low: 1.056
 Inventory Turnover 0.46
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -8.519 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 2.388 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.108
median: 0.557
mean: 0.525
EL: 0.46
low: 0.334
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 41.827
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 98.193
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -8.659 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -18.636 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 167.638
mean: 134.244
median: 133.272
EL: 98.193
low: 89.801
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 2.342
 CapEx To Revenue -0.027
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.507
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 10.8 B
 Net Invested Capital 11.3 B
 Invested Capital 11.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.76 B
 Net Working Capital 1.6 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.529
 Current Ratio 1.268
Current Ratio QoQ -6.617 %
Current Ratio YoY -10.289 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 4.51
median: 3.261
mean: 2.752
EL: 1.268
low: 0.821
 Quick Ratio 0.944
Quick Ratio QoQ -5.473 %
Quick Ratio YoY -7.371 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 3.079
median: 2.053
mean: 1.872
EL: 0.944
low: 0.488
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 20.13
 Cost Of Debt 0.526 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.183
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -35.275 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -15.575 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 65.438
mean: 3.824
EL: 3.183
median: -2.637
low: -62.851
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.041
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 118.607
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.706
 Dividend Payout Ratio 1.416
 Dividend Rate 0.35
 Dividend Yield 0.004
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.153 %
 Revenue Growth -12.225 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -156.892 %
Revenue Growth YoY 7.814 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 22.871 %
median: -10.692 %
mean: -11.67 %
EL: -12.225 %
low: -25.986 %
 Earnings Growth 2.247 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -98.739 %
Earnings Growth YoY -53.565 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 100.0 %
median: 7.895 %
EL: 2.247 %
mean: -23.112 %
low: -121.429 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 76.401 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.124 %
Gross Margin YoY 1.925 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 80.235 %
EL: 76.401 %
median: 72.659 %
mean: 68.698 %
low: 1.079 %
 EBIT Margin 7.031 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -28.865 %
EBIT Margin YoY -23.899 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 27.058 %
EL: 7.031 %
mean: -0.106 %
median: -9.692 %
low: -33.177 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 15.005 %
Return On Sales QoQ 4.368 %
Return On Sales YoY 62.409 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 26.807 %
EL: 15.005 %
mean: 4.928 %
median: 1.628 %
low: -14.198 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 310.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.003 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -61.907 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 43.491 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 8.979 %
median: 1.348 %
EL: 1.003 %
mean: 0.153 %
low: -11.476 %
 Free Cash Growth -69.518 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -79.14 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -15.721 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 132.982 %
mean: -49.825 %
median: -49.998 %
EL: -69.518 %
low: -400.853 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 3.483
 Cash Flow Margin 6.546 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.73
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.453 %
Return On Assets QoQ -45.553 %
Return On Assets YoY -43.516 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.346 %
EL: 0.453 %
mean: -0.424 %
median: -1.6 %
low: -6.64 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.898 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.022
Return On Equity QoQ -44.538 %
Return On Equity YoY -39.082 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.075
EL: 0.022
median: -0.021
mean: -0.026
low: -0.171
 DuPont ROE 2.219 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.385 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -52.389 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -25.457 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 6.342 %
EL: 1.385 %
mean: 0.105 %
median: -1.817 %
low: -6.002 %

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum indicators converge toward downside pressure: bearish DI+/DI- behavior, a MACD peak-and-reversal below its signal, a positive MRO implying mean reversion, and an RSI peak-and-reversal together favor further consolidation or a retest of value near the WMDST mean target (~$94). Short-term support aligns with the 200-day average near $92 and the lower Bollinger band near $98; resistance clusters around the 20-day average near $101 and recent short-term highs above $104.

Fundamentals provide a stabilizing floor: healthy gross margin, positive operating leverage, and free cash flow offset elevated leverage and rich multiples. Expect price action to remain range-bound with a downward bias until momentum indicators reset or free-cash-flow yield and leverage metrics show clear improvement.

About The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) designs and produces a comprehensive range of prestige beauty products, addressing diverse consumer needs across the globe. Established in 1946 and headquartered in New York City, Estee Lauder has cultivated a reputation for quality and innovation in the beauty industry. The company’s extensive portfolio includes skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products. Estee Lauder’s skin care line offers products from rejuvenating serums to protective sun care solutions. Its makeup range features vibrant lipsticks, versatile eyeshadows, and professional-grade tools. The fragrance division presents luxurious scents in various forms, including sprays, lotions, and candles. Hair care products encompass nourishing shampoos and advanced styling treatments. Estee Lauder’s brand portfolio reflects its commitment to excellence and diversity, with renowned names such as Clinique, M·A·C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, and Aveda. The company’s products reach consumers through multiple channels, including department stores, specialty retailers, and online platforms, ensuring global accessibility. Estee Lauder’s ongoing dedication to quality, innovation, and sustainability underpins its success and maintains its esteemed position in the beauty industry.



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