Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) Signals Near-Term Downside Pressure Despite Fundamental Strength

Microsoft shows strong profitability and cash generation while short-term momentum indicators point to weakening price action; valuation metrics imply a discounted price relative to WMDST's model.

Recent News

July 21, 2026 — Microsoft expanded its strategic partnership with Mistral to deliver frontier AI solutions for regulated industries. July 23, 2026 — Microsoft and Databricks extended a decade-long collaboration to deepen enterprise AI integration. July 15–29, 2026 — Microsoft announced a separate strategic partnership with 3M on AI data center infrastructure and released partner-program updates across July and August, including modernization of partner verification and a new unified Marketplace offering slated for September 2026.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show a bearish alignment: the positive directional index peaked and reversed, while the negative directional index dipped then reversed—both imply the directional system favors sellers. ADX at 35.08 confirms a strong trend environment supporting that directional bias.

MACD sits below its signal line (MACD 12.30 vs signal 15.91) and the MACD value declines, indicating bearish momentum rather than a fresh bullish crossover.

The momentum/regression oscillator reads 34.63 (positive), which signals the price currently exceeds the model target and carries potential for a corrective move downward from current levels.

Relative strength shows a peak-and-reverse at 59.79, marking faded upside momentum and a rollover in short-term strength.

Price sits below near-term cloud and conversion averages: the 12-day EMA and 20-day average both peaked then reversed and the current close ($492.44) trades under the 12-day/tenkan and 20-day values, pointing to short-term pressure. The 200-day average ($429.53) remains well below price, indicating longer-term appreciation persists even as short-term momentum softens.

Bollinger bands contain price between the $488 lower band and $508 upper band, with volume below 10/50/200-day averages, suggesting the recent directional signals developed with relatively muted participation and allowing for a higher-probability short-term correction.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and cash flow: EBIT equals $44,886,000,000, giving an EBIT margin of 49.87%, above the industry peer mean of 27.99% and the industry peer median of 34.42%. EBIT margin rose by 3.03% quarter-over-quarter and by 14.71% year-over-year, reinforcing operational leverage and margin expansion.

Net income reached $35,766,000,000 and operating cash flow totaled $30,678,000,000. Free cash flow measured $19,639,000,000, producing a free cash flow yield of 0.666% and free cash flow growth of 24.27% year-over-year. Cash conversion remains strong with a cash conversion cycle of -60.05 days.

Earnings detail: reported EPS $4.74 versus estimate $4.24, an EPS surprise of 11.79%, and the EPS beat occurred alongside headline revenue results. Forward EPS of $5.867 implies a forward P/E of 68.71; trailing P/E stands at 83.69 while forward P/E reduces relative to trailing, reflecting earnings carryforward in the next fiscal periods.

Growth metrics: reported revenue totaled $90,007,000,000. Revenue growth YoY shows -5.58% while the provided trailing revenue growth figure sits at 8.59%; quarter-over-quarter revenue change shows a positive movement of 332.80% per the supplied QoQ figure. Gross margin at 67.20% changed minimally year-over-year. Earnings growth registers 110.01% YoY with earnings growth QoQ of 250.54% per supplied values, indicating large year-over-year comparables in earnings.

Leverage and liquidity: total debt $56,826,000,000 produces a debt-to-EBITDA near 1.02 and interest coverage about 53.50x, reflecting a low-cost, well-covered debt profile (cost of debt ~1.20%). Current ratio measures 1.23 and quick ratio 1.22, below the industry peer mean current ratio of 2.94 but inside the industry peer range.

Valuation context: price-to-sales 32.74, price-to-book 6.66, and enterprise multiple 52.35. WMDST values the stock as under-valued. Relative to the industry peer mean P/B of 9.22 and median of 8.94, the company trades below the peer mean on a P/B basis; forward P/E trending down from the trailing P/E suggests some earnings progression priced into forward estimates.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-07-29
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-10-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 32.1 B
 Operating Cash Flow 30.7 B
 Capital Expenditures -35.80 B
 Change In Working Capital 4.6 B
 Dividends Paid -6.76 B
 Cash Flow Delta -11.17 B
 End Period Cash Flow 20.9 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 90.0 B
 Forward Revenue 27.4 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 29.5 B
 Depreciation 11.0 B
 Depreciation and Amortization 11.0 B
 Research and Development 10.0 B
 Total Operating Expenses 49.4 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 60.5 B
 EBITDA 55.9 B
 EBIT 44.9 B
 Operating Income 40.6 B
 Interest Income 755.0 M
 Interest Expense 839.0 M
 Net Interest Income -84.00 M
 Income Before Tax 44.0 B
 Tax Provision 8.3 B
 Tax Rate 18.8 %
 Net Income 35.8 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 35.8 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 4.24
 EPS Actual 4.74
 EPS Difference 0.50
 EPS Surprise 11.792 %
 Forward EPS 5.87
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 758.4 B
 Intangible Assets 138.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 304.1 B
 Total Current Assets 207.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 76.7 B
 Cash 20.9 B
 Net Receivables 80.9 B
 Inventory 1.4 B
 Long-Term Investments 38.8 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 42.4 B
 Short-Term Debt 9.2 B
 Total Current Liabilities 168.8 B
 Net Debt 19.4 B
 Total Debt 56.8 B
 Total Liabilities 316.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 442.4 B
 Retained Earnings 328.3 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 59.55
 Shares Outstanding 7.428 B
 Revenue Per-Share 12.12
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 2.9 T
 Enterprise Value 2.9 T
 Enterprise Multiple 52.352
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -13.033 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -36.275 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 477.541
mean: 112.081
median: 68.756
MSFT: 52.352
low: -246.135
 EV/R 32.519
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.714
 Asset To Liability 2.4
 Debt To Capital 0.114
 Debt To Assets 0.075
Debt To Assets QoQ -8.689 %
Debt To Assets YoY -23.447 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.037
mean: 0.228
median: 0.169
MSFT: 0.075
low: 0.005
 Debt To Equity 0.128
Debt To Equity QoQ -6.561 %
Debt To Equity YoY -27.183 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.078
mean: 0.367
median: 0.235
MSFT: 0.128
low: -1.908
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 6.661
Price To Book QoQ -9.455 %
Price To Book YoY -37.902 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 25.349
mean: 9.22
median: 8.935
MSFT: 6.661
low: -10.151
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 83.689
Price To Earnings QoQ -12.913 %
Price To Earnings YoY -35.717 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 359.099
mean: 132.93
median: 91.794
MSFT: 83.689
low: -225.715
 PE/G Ratio 7.603
 Price To Sales (P/S) 32.739
Price To Sales QoQ -10.98 %
Price To Sales YoY -32.075 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 96.135
mean: 38.797
MSFT: 32.739
median: 28.124
low: 0.103
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 68.714
Forward PE/G 6.243
Forward P/S 107.466
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.383
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.124
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.64 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -4.212 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.41
mean: 0.132
median: 0.13
MSFT: 0.124
low: 0.001
 Receivables Turnover 1.277
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -10.166 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 1.611 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 5.131
mean: 1.57
median: 1.339
MSFT: 1.277
low: 0.071
 Inventory Turnover 22.573
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -4.166 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -16.06 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA MSFT: 22.573
high: 2.578
mean: 1.113
median: 1.017
low: 0.052
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 71.432
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -60.051
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -5.091 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 66.581 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 196.645
median: 43.73
mean: 14.844
MSFT: -60.051
low: -232.881
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 2.315
 CapEx To Revenue -0.398
 CapEx To Depreciation -3.248
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 473.5 B
 Net Invested Capital 482.7 B
 Invested Capital 482.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets 304.1 B
 Net Working Capital 38.9 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.454
 Current Ratio 1.23
Current Ratio QoQ -4.101 %
Current Ratio YoY -9.097 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 9.033
mean: 2.936
median: 1.29
MSFT: 1.23
low: 0.04
 Quick Ratio 1.222
Quick Ratio QoQ -4.08 %
Quick Ratio YoY -9.263 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 15.727
median: 7.533
mean: 4.487
MSFT: 1.222
low: 0.446
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 1.016
 Cost Of Debt 1.197 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 53.499
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 3.75 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -0.99 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 155.643
MSFT: 53.499
mean: 7.921
median: 7.387
low: -187.314
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.182
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 135.931
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 5.292
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.189
 Dividend Rate 0.91
 Dividend Yield 0.002
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 9.24 %
 Revenue Growth 8.591 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 332.796 %
Revenue Growth YoY -5.583 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 28.237 %
MSFT: 8.591 %
mean: 7.401 %
median: 7.286 %
low: -22.505 %
 Earnings Growth 11.007 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 250.541 %
Earnings Growth YoY 100.455 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 100.0 %
mean: 12.347 %
MSFT: 11.007 %
median: 4.912 %
low: -83.333 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 67.197 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.645 %
Gross Margin YoY -2.024 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 93.582 %
median: 75.298 %
mean: 75.216 %
MSFT: 67.197 %
low: 13.199 %
 EBIT Margin 49.869 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 3.033 %
EBIT Margin YoY 14.713 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 80.922 %
MSFT: 49.869 %
median: 34.42 %
mean: 27.989 %
low: -171.094 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 45.111 %
Return On Sales QoQ -2.623 %
Return On Sales YoY 0.468 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 77.678 %
MSFT: 45.111 %
median: 28.399 %
mean: 25.669 %
low: -75.925 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 19.6 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.666 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 28.571 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -4.035 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.622 %
mean: 0.825 %
MSFT: 0.666 %
median: 0.478 %
low: -13.559 %
 Free Cash Growth 24.274 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -85.608 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -6.484 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 215.912 %
MSFT: 24.274 %
median: -7.208 %
mean: -7.461 %
low: -222.15 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.549
 Cash Flow Margin 34.084 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.858
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 4.924 %
Return On Assets QoQ 5.326 %
Return On Assets YoY 6.834 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 15.855 %
MSFT: 4.924 %
mean: 3.207 %
median: 1.727 %
low: -25.441 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 7.614 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.081
Return On Equity QoQ 5.424 %
Return On Equity YoY 1.967 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.341
MSFT: 0.081
median: 0.062
mean: 0.057
low: -0.268
 DuPont ROE 8.35 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 7.551 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 5.934 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 5.226 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 17.018 %
MSFT: 7.551 %
mean: 3.338 %
median: 3.266 %
low: -14.563 %

Six-Week Outlook

Short-term momentum favors sellers: multiple momentum indicators rolled over and directional indexes shifted toward negative pressure while ADX confirms a strong trend context. Expect corrective pressure to test the immediate super-trend support near $484 and the lower Bollinger band around $488 on the first notable test of sellers’ conviction. If the price stabilizes above the 200-day average ($429), longer-term bullish fundamentals remain intact; however, declining momentum and low volume increase the chance of a multiday pullback before any sustained recovery.

About Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) develops and supports a wide range of software, services, devices, and solutions on a global scale. The Productivity and Business Processes segment delivers Office applications, Microsoft Teams, and Microsoft 365 subscriptions, alongside LinkedIn and Dynamics 365, which includes cloud-based ERP and CRM applications. The Intelligent Cloud segment provides server products and cloud services through Azure, SQL Server, and GitHub, as well as enterprise support and industry solutions. The More Personal Computing segment encompasses Windows operating system licensing, Surface devices, and PC accessories. Additionally, this segment includes gaming through Xbox hardware and content, Xbox Game Pass, and cloud gaming services. Microsoft also engages in search and news advertising via Bing and Microsoft News. The company distributes its products through original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors, resellers, digital marketplaces, and retail outlets. Founded in 1975, Microsoft maintains its headquarters in Redmond, Washington, continuing to play a significant role in the technology industry.



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