Fabrinet (NYSE:FN) Posts Strong Operational Gains; Near-Term Technical Rebound Appears Probable

Fabrinet’s recent operating results and liquidity profile underline durable margin strength, while technical indicators point to a contained, beta-driven recovery that could compress the gap to the current valuation. Momentum needs confirmation to sustain any rally above short-term resistance.

Recent News

June 3, 2026: Short interest rose sharply into early June even as the stock rallied, with commentary noting active short rebuilding and ample borrow availability that reduced mechanical squeeze risk. August 2026: Fabrinet expanded its U.S. footprint via an all-cash acquisition of a three-building campus in Santa Clara (approximately $76.9M), increasing Silicon Valley capacity and customer proximity.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators and ADX: ADX at 21.38 signals an emerging trend rather than a strong directional regime. DI+ has completed a dip-and-reverse and DI– shows a peak-and-reverse, both readings that register as bullish pressure; together they support a near-term upside bias that would help reconcile price with the valuation multiple if sustained.

MACD: MACD sits negative at –26.94 but shows a dip-and-reverse pattern, indicating developing bullish momentum. MACD remains below its signal line (–22.48), so momentum improvement exists but lacks confirmation from a signal-line crossover; upside scenarios require that confirmation to materially shift medium-term momentum relative to the current valuation.

MRO (momentum/regression oscillator): MRO at –7.25 places price below the model target and implies upside potential toward that target; the negative value suggests room for a corrective move higher rather than immediate downside pressure.

RSI: RSI at 42.05 with a dip-and-reverse pattern signals recovery from lower momentum levels and supports a short-term rebound, though the reading does not reach neutral territory yet, so strength remains tentative until RSI moves above midrange.

Price versus moving averages and bands: Last close $416.31 sits below the 20-day ($421.62), 50-day ($480.45), and 200-day ($536.14) averages, indicating the medium- and long-term technical bias remains below price averages; however the close already sits above the lower 1x Bollinger band ($400.85) and below the upper 1x band ($442.39), leaving room to traverse the band toward nearby resistance without a large volatility expansion.

Volatility and volume context: Short-term beta (42-day 3.44; 52-week 2.87) implies outsized sensitivity to market moves and newsflow; current intraday volume sits slightly below the 10- and 50-day averages, suggesting any directional thrust will likely be amplified by the elevated beta environment rather than broad conviction volume.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue and growth: Total revenue $1,315,788,000 with sequential revenue growth of 16.31% QoQ and strong year-over-year expansion of 92.27%. The two-period profile shows recent acceleration QoQ while YoY growth reflects a material rebound in demand.

Profitability: Gross margin 12.01% (QoQ +1.05%, YoY –1.82%). Operating margin 10.21% and EBIT margin 17.22% (EBIT margin QoQ +74.18%, YoY +68.01%). The combination of expanding operating and EBIT margins supports a premium valuation multiple and reflects operating leverage operating through the revenue base.

Earnings and guidance context: Reported EPS $4.10 versus estimate $3.81, an EPS surprise of roughly 7.61%. Forward EPS $5.45 and forward P/E ~112.82 reflect expectations embedded in the market for further earnings uplift; the trailing P/E reads ~133.60, indicating the market already prices elevated future profitability.

Cash, leverage and cash generation: Cash and short-term investments $875,055,000 and cash $346,711,000 provide a strong liquidity buffer. Total debt $4,013,000 yields effectively negligible leverage (debt-to-assets ~0.10% and debt-to-equity ~0.16%). Operating cash flow $50,991,000 contrasts with free cash flow of –$37,401,000, producing a negative free cash flow yield of –0.19%; the operating cash inflow reduces financial risk, but negative FCF limits near-term cash conversion upside.

Returns and efficiency: Return on equity ~5.67% and return on assets ~3.75%; asset turnover 0.3547 and cash conversion cycle ~68.2 days. These metrics show modest capital turnover with healthy capital structure and room to convert margin gains into returns if revenue growth normalizes.

Valuation summary: WMDST values the stock as EVR 14.26. Market multiples sit at a premium (P/E ~133.6, P/B ~7.998, P/S ~14.918, enterprise multiple ~76.20), implying expectations for continued margin expansion and revenue growth to support those multiples. Liquidity and minimal leverage reduce balance-sheet risk, while negative free cash flow and the premium multiples temper the margin for error.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-08-17
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-11-16
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 357.3 M
 Operating Cash Flow 51.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -92.37 M
 Change In Working Capital -57.53 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -9.84 M
 End Period Cash Flow 347.4 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.3 B
 Forward Revenue 461.1 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.2 B
 Depreciation 19.6 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 19.6 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 1.2 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 158.1 M
 EBITDA 246.2 M
 EBIT 226.6 M
 Operating Income 134.4 M
 Interest Income 7.0 M
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income 6.9 M
 Income Before Tax 199.7 M
 Tax Provision 60.5 M
 Tax Rate 30.272 %
 Net Income 139.3 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 139.3 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 3.81
 EPS Actual 4.10
 EPS Difference 0.29
 EPS Surprise 7.612 %
 Forward EPS 5.45
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 3.9 B
 Intangible Assets 2.5 M
 Net Tangible Assets 2.5 B
 Total Current Assets 3.2 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 875.1 M
 Cash 346.7 M
 Net Receivables 1.0 B
 Inventory 1.0 B
 Long-Term Investments 21.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.0 B
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 1.4 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 4.0 M
 Total Liabilities 1.5 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 2.5 B
 Retained Earnings 2.6 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 68.49
 Shares Outstanding 35.835 M
 Revenue Per-Share 36.72
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 19.6 B
 Enterprise Value 18.8 B
 Enterprise Multiple 76.199
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -47.564 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -15.409 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R 14.256
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.594
 Asset To Liability 2.685
 Debt To Capital 0.002
 Debt To Assets 0.001
Debt To Assets QoQ -18.254 %
Debt To Assets YoY -46.632 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA
 Debt To Equity 0.002
Debt To Equity QoQ -14.583 %
Debt To Equity YoY -40.58 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 7.998
Price To Book QoQ -12.106 %
Price To Book YoY 49.427 %
Price To Book IPRWA
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 133.599
Price To Earnings QoQ -15.091 %
Price To Earnings YoY 11.976 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA
 PE/G Ratio 13.079
 Price To Sales (P/S) 14.918
Price To Sales QoQ -13.622 %
Price To Sales YoY 27.936 %
Price To Sales IPRWA
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 112.817
Forward PE/G 11.044
Forward P/S 42.573
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 10.616
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.355
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.024 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 6.252 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Receivables Turnover 1.366
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -3.806 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 6.404 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Inventory Turnover 1.22
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -4.475 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -14.982 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 66.801
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 68.185
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 3.726 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -0.219 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.749
 CapEx To Revenue -0.07
 CapEx To Depreciation -4.71
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 2.5 B
 Net Invested Capital 2.5 B
 Invested Capital 2.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 2.5 B
 Net Working Capital 1.8 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.624
 Current Ratio 2.253
Current Ratio QoQ -11.623 %
Current Ratio YoY -24.888 %
Current Ratio IPRWA
 Quick Ratio 1.525
Quick Ratio QoQ -14.868 %
Quick Ratio YoY -33.181 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 0.016
 Cost Of Debt 0.0 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.036
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 79.517
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 11.456 %
 Revenue Growth 8.358 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 16.309 %
Revenue Growth YoY 92.271 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA
 Earnings Growth 10.215 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -4.657 %
Earnings Growth YoY -357.434 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 12.012 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.052 %
Gross Margin YoY -1.815 %
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin 17.219 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 74.176 %
EBIT Margin YoY 68.007 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA
 Return On Sales (ROS) 10.212 %
Return On Sales QoQ 3.298 %
Return On Sales YoY 4.236 %
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -37.40 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.191 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 253.704 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -554.762 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA
 Free Cash Growth 231.51 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 113.22 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -356.737 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.269
 Cash Flow Margin 3.875 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.366
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 3.754 %
Return On Assets QoQ 1.597 %
Return On Assets YoY 17.312 %
Return On Assets IPRWA
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 9.032 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.057
Return On Equity QoQ 4.436 %
Return On Equity YoY 28.955 %
Return On Equity IPRWA
 DuPont ROE 5.853 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 6.437 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 32.449 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 46.295 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA

Six-Week Outlook

Expect volatility-driven, beta-amplified swings over the next six weeks. Technicals favor a contained rebound: directional indicators and a recovering MACD/R SI point to upside potential, while price remains beneath medium- and long-term moving averages that create layered resistance. In practice, momentum confirmation (MACD crossing above its signal and a sustained move above the 20-day average) would materially increase the likelihood that price compresses toward the valuation implied by WMDST’s EVR; failure to confirm would likely keep the security range-bound under stronger moving-average resistance. Monitor liquidity-driven headlines and volume for conviction in either direction.

About Fabrinet

Fabrinet (NYSE:FN) delivers advanced optical packaging and precision manufacturing services to a broad spectrum of industries across North America, the Asia-Pacific, and Europe. Established in 1999 and headquartered in George Town, the Cayman Islands, Fabrinet provides comprehensive manufacturing solutions, including process design, engineering, supply chain management, and testing. The company produces a range of optical and electro-mechanical components, such as reconfigurable optical add-drop multiplexers, optical amplifiers, and modulators, essential for managing complex data communications over fiber optic networks. Fabrinet’s offerings also include transceivers, tunable lasers, and high-speed active optical cables, which are vital for data centers and computing clusters. Beyond telecommunications, Fabrinet serves the semiconductor, biotechnology, and medical device industries with advanced laser technologies and precision sensors. The company designs and fabricates custom optical components like crystals, lenses, and mirrors, tailored to the specific needs of original equipment manufacturers. Leveraging its expertise in precision manufacturing and optical engineering, Fabrinet remains a trusted partner for industries seeking high-quality, reliable solutions in a connected world.



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