LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE:LYB) Technical Pressure May Precede Fundamental Stabilization

Near-term technical indicators show renewed downside pressure while company fundamentals display mixed recovery signals and stretched valuation; expect consolidation as operating and cash-flow drivers clarify.

Recent News

July 2026 reports document multiple unplanned production disruptions across LyondellBasell’s U.S. polyolefin and olefins network: an Equistar-related polypropylene shutdown at Bayport was reported July 10, flaring and reduced steam supply affected Channelview around July 13, and mid-July notices referenced other unit outages and turnarounds at Morris and Pasadena facilities. Industry reporting also noted the company’s Bayport propylene-oxide unit remained offline into the summer.

Technical Analysis

Directional strength: ADX at 17.85 indicates no established trend; directional indicators show DI+ = 28.19 with a peak-and-reversal (bearish) and DI– = 22.15 with a dip-and-reversal (bearish), together signaling recent directional conflict that skews toward selling pressure relative to the current valuation bias.

MACD: MACD sits at 0.12 while the signal line reads –0.14, so MACD currently trades above its signal line (a bullish crossover). The MACD trend shows a peak-and-reversal, however, which denotes weakening momentum and implies the recent bullish crossover may not sustain without renewed momentum.

MRO: Momentum/Regression Oscillator at 10.64 (positive, increasing) indicates price sits above the WMDST target and therefore the oscillator signals compression risk and a greater likelihood of downward adjustment toward valuation support levels.

RSI and momentum breadth: RSI at 46.53 with a peak-and-reversal reads as bearish; the 12-day EMA shows a peak-and-reversal as well, and price sits below the 20-day and 50-day averages (price close $59.59 vs 20-day $60.51 and 50-day $60.12), implying short-term momentum favors lower-to-flat action against the current valuation.

Trend-and-support context: Ichimoku components place the conversion and leading spans above the close (Tenkan 61.41, Senkou A 62.19, Senkou B 65.47), and price lies near the lower 1× standard-deviation Bollinger band (lower ~ $59.10). Beta measures show subdued market correlation (42‑day beta –0.84, 52‑week beta –0.22). Overall, technicals favor consolidation with downside bias until momentum indicators re-accelerate or outages resolve.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: EBIT totaled $275,000,000 and EBIT margin stands at 3.82%. QoQ the EBIT margin contracted by 28.10%, while YoY it improved by 76.74%. LyondellBasell’s EBIT margin ranks above the industry peer mean (≈ –0.66%) and above the industry peer median (≈ –5.05%), indicating relatively stronger operating profitability versus peers despite the recent QoQ pressure.

Earnings and valuation multiples: Reported EPS came in at $4.30 versus an estimate of $3.42, an EPS surprise of 25.73%. Trailing P/E equals 137.6 and forward P/E sits near 37.9; the sharp gap between trailing and forward multiples reflects either one-time drivers in trailing earnings or markedly lower consensus forward EPS (forward EPS ≈ $1.60). Price-to-book equals 2.17 (up ~42.9% QoQ and ~20.5% YoY), placing book-based valuation above the industry peer mean and median.

Cash flow and leverage: Operating cash flow totaled –$269,000,000 and free cash flow registered –$538,000,000, yielding a free-cash-flow yield of –2.47%. Net debt stands at $10.286 billion with total debt ~$14.252 billion and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 23.10, while interest coverage approximates 1.99. These metrics show leverage-intensive capital structure and constrained cash generation relative to reported earnings, increasing sensitivity to margin pressure and capital allocation choices.

Liquidity and working capital: Cash and short-term investments equal $2.635 billion, current ratio 1.54 and quick ratio 1.03. Cash-conversion-cycle days sit at 44.53, shorter than the industry peer mean of ≈71 days, which supports operational cash recovery even as absolute cash flow remains negative for the period.

Other indicators: Gross margin about 9.74% and operating margin about 3.53% expanded YoY (gross margin YoY +36.21%, operating margin YoY +63.23%). Dividend yield equals ~1.03% with a payout ratio of ~182% and dividend coverage ~54.9%, indicating the current dividend level exceeds trailing earnings and requires attention to cash generation if sustained.

Valuation summary: Enterprise multiple registers ~54.09 and WMDST values the stock as over-valued given stretched trailing multiples, negative free cash flow yield, and elevated net leverage even though several profit margins improved YoY. The most salient fundamental tensions remain leverage versus ongoing operational margin recovery.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-07-31
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-10-30
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 3.4 B
 Operating Cash Flow -269.00 M
 Capital Expenditures -269.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -602.00 M
 Dividends Paid -224.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta -810.00 M
 End Period Cash Flow 2.6 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 7.2 B
 Forward Revenue 7.5 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 6.5 B
 Depreciation 342.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 342.0 M
 Research and Development 36.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 6.9 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 701.0 M
 EBITDA 617.0 M
 EBIT 275.0 M
 Operating Income 254.0 M
 Interest Income 31.0 M
 Interest Expense 138.0 M
 Net Interest Income -107.00 M
 Income Before Tax 137.0 M
 Tax Provision -2.00 M
 Tax Rate 40.0 %
 Net Income 123.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 125.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 3.42
 EPS Actual 4.30
 EPS Difference 0.88
 EPS Surprise 25.731 %
 Forward EPS 1.60
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 34.0 B
 Intangible Assets 1.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets 8.9 B
 Total Current Assets 11.1 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 2.6 B
 Cash 2.6 B
 Net Receivables 3.0 B
 Inventory 3.6 B
 Long-Term Investments 639.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 2.9 B
 Short-Term Debt 1.7 B
 Total Current Liabilities 7.2 B
 Net Debt 10.3 B
 Total Debt 14.3 B
 Total Liabilities 23.8 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 10.0 B
 Retained Earnings 6.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 31.11
 Shares Outstanding 322.770 M
 Revenue Per-Share 22.30
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 21.8 B
 Enterprise Value 33.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 54.095
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -23.404 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -19.226 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 194.687
median: 117.885
mean: 100.702
LYB: 54.095
low: 10.334
 EV/R 4.638
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.382
 Asset To Liability 1.427
 Debt To Capital 0.587
 Debt To Assets 0.42
Debt To Assets QoQ -2.488 %
Debt To Assets YoY 16.616 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.892
mean: 0.42
LYB: 0.42
median: 0.326
low: 0.003
 Debt To Equity 1.42
Debt To Equity QoQ -2.21 %
Debt To Equity YoY 36.852 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.687
LYB: 1.42
mean: 1.057
median: 0.751
low: 0.004
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.167
Price To Book QoQ 42.889 %
Price To Book YoY 20.538 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 3.021
LYB: 2.167
median: 1.608
mean: 1.301
low: -0.199
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 137.581
Price To Earnings QoQ -175.343 %
Price To Earnings YoY -33.207 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA LYB: 137.581
high: 54.874
mean: -73.199
median: -81.887
low: -157.884
 PE/G Ratio -0.477
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.023
Price To Sales QoQ 40.198 %
Price To Sales YoY 5.735 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 7.245
median: 5.182
mean: 3.464
LYB: 3.023
low: 0.203
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 37.892
Forward PE/G -0.131
Forward P/S 2.84
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -1906.542
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.212
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.243 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -2.148 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.282
LYB: 0.212
mean: 0.165
median: 0.134
low: 0.088
 Receivables Turnover 2.692
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.581 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 17.123 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 4.196
LYB: 2.692
mean: 2.295
median: 2.012
low: 1.622
 Inventory Turnover 1.812
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 6.534 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 21.901 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.87
LYB: 1.812
median: 1.526
mean: 1.434
low: 0.443
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 33.891
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 44.534
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -8.879 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -12.914 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 190.998
median: 79.447
mean: 71.188
LYB: 44.534
low: -4.195
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.86
 CapEx To Revenue -0.037
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.787
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 21.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 23.0 B
 Invested Capital 23.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets 8.9 B
 Net Working Capital 3.9 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.367
 Current Ratio 1.538
Current Ratio QoQ -13.25 %
Current Ratio YoY -15.808 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.65
median: 2.17
mean: 1.919
LYB: 1.538
low: 0.71
 Quick Ratio 1.033
Quick Ratio QoQ -13.722 %
Quick Ratio YoY -0.431 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 3.574
median: 1.559
mean: 1.271
LYB: 1.033
low: 0.404
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 23.099
 Cost Of Debt 0.573 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 1.993
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -2730.346 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 28.448 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 17.093
LYB: 1.993
mean: -0.799
low: -2.393
median: -2.393
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.008
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 37.764
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.549
 Dividend Payout Ratio 1.821
 Dividend Rate 0.69
 Dividend Yield 0.01
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.132 %
 Revenue Growth 1.495 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -118.163 %
Revenue Growth YoY -107.801 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 21.874 %
median: 4.698 %
mean: 2.852 %
LYB: 1.495 %
low: -5.378 %
 Earnings Growth -288.462 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 218.342 %
Earnings Growth YoY 415.111 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 8.333 %
mean: -38.058 %
median: -45.946 %
low: -94.444 %
LYB: -288.462 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 9.74 %
Gross Margin QoQ 106.181 %
Gross Margin YoY 36.205 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 32.665 %
LYB: 9.74 %
mean: 7.154 %
low: 4.223 %
median: 4.223 %
 EBIT Margin 3.821 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -2809.929 %
EBIT Margin YoY 76.735 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 28.434 %
LYB: 3.821 %
mean: -0.663 %
median: -5.053 %
low: -6.711 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 3.529 %
Return On Sales QoQ -452.547 %
Return On Sales YoY 63.228 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 28.321 %
LYB: 3.529 %
mean: -2.904 %
low: -5.807 %
median: -5.807 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -538.00 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -2.472 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -135.764 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -48.905 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 13.526 %
median: -2.205 %
LYB: -2.472 %
mean: -2.843 %
low: -14.09 %
 Free Cash Growth -150.899 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -281.393 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -13.903 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 236.5 %
mean: -135.408 %
median: -135.72 %
LYB: -150.899 %
low: -578.947 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -4.374
 Cash Flow Margin -0.764 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.447
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.362 %
Return On Assets QoQ -186.396 %
Return On Assets YoY -26.572 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 1.833 %
LYB: 0.362 %
mean: -0.478 %
median: -0.852 %
low: -1.678 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.027 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.012
Return On Equity QoQ -187.003 %
Return On Equity YoY -14.515 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.055
LYB: 0.012
median: -0.02
mean: -0.032
low: -0.092
 DuPont ROE 1.223 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 0.719 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -1853.659 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 69.176 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 2.851 %
LYB: 0.719 %
mean: -0.177 %
median: -0.784 %
low: -1.114 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect consolidation with a short-term downside bias: technical momentum leans bearish while MRO signals price sits above the WMDST target, raising the probability of a corrective move or range-bound trading over the next six weeks. Operational developments—particularly resolution of Gulf Coast unit outages and quarter-to-date cash-flow prints—should drive the next directional resolution. Volatility likely stays muted unless further plant disruptions or material cash-flow revisions emerge.

About LyondellBasell Industries N.V.

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE:LYB) manufactures and markets a diverse range of chemical products across the globe. Operating through six key segments—Olefins and Polyolefins Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; Refining; and Technology—the company delivers essential materials for various industries. LyondellBasell produces olefins, co-products, polyethylene, and polypropylene, alongside propylene oxide, derivatives, and oxyfuels. Its portfolio includes intermediate chemicals like styrene monomer, acetyls, ethylene oxide, and ethylene glycol. Additionally, the company creates and distributes compounding solutions such as polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, and advanced polymers. In the refining sector, LyondellBasell processes heavy, high-sulfur crude oil to produce gasoline and distillates. The company also develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies and manufactures polyolefin catalysts. Serving industries such as food packaging, home furnishings, automotive, and paints and coatings, LyondellBasell maintains its headquarters in Houston, Texas, since its incorporation in 2009.



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