AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) Raises Capital While Near-Term Deployment Risks Pressure Outlook

AST SpaceMobile closed a large convertible offering and faces delayed commercial service timing, creating a liquidity buffer but keeping near-term delivery risk elevated.

Recent News

On July 20–21 the company completed a private offering of convertible senior notes totaling roughly $1.0 billion (with an exercised option for additional notes). In mid- to late July management disclosed a pushback of commercial Direct‑to‑Device service deployment from late 2026 to early 2027 and revised the target of ~45 satellites to early‑2027 timing. Independent filings and counsel notices also showed investor litigation activity and mixed analyst commentary, including at least one bullish analyst note published in July.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show an emerging trend strength (ADX 23.71) while directional momentum leans bearish: DI- at 30.07 and increasing, DI+ at 16.18 and decreasing, indicating sellers currently dominate and trend strength sits in the emerging range.

MACD stands negative at -6.73 with a declining MACD_trend and a signal line at -5.84; momentum remains bearish and MACD sits below its signal line, so no bullish MACD cross appears.

MRO equals -9.47 and is decreasing; the oscillator sits below zero, implying price resides below model targets and leaving upward potential, though the increasing negative momentum suggests that potential remains unexpressed near term.

RSI at 43.0 with a peak-and-reversal signal indicates recent loss of upside momentum and supports the current downside bias; price sits below short and long moving averages (price $56.20 vs 20‑day $65.00, 50‑day $84.18, 200‑day $83.15), reinforcing a pressured price structure.

Bollinger bounds show the close trading marginally under the 1x lower band (lower 1x = $56.86), implying proximity to short-term volatility support; super trend resistance sits near $72.98 while 42‑day beta (3.84) and elevated volume history show above‑average sensitivity to sector news, so technical risk remains elevated despite lower immediate volume.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue for the period totaled $14,735,000 with YoY revenue growth of 16.46% but a sharp QoQ contraction (revenue growth QoQ -127.14%), reflecting timing variability in commercialization. Gross margin stands at 20.94%, below the industry peer mean of 43.98% and indicating material cost structure dispersion versus peers.

Operating metrics show operating margin at -10.14% and EBIT margin at -15.21%; both fall well below the industry peer mean EBIT margin of 3.40% and the peer median. QoQ improvement in EBIT margin (+9.74 percentage points) contrasts with a dramatic YoY deterioration (-81.40 percentage points), signaling volatile operating leverage as capital intensity ramps.

Net income registered a loss of $191,012,000 and EBITDA negative at $206,519,000. EPS came in at -$0.66 versus an estimate of -$0.20, producing an EPS surprise of -230%, which reflects larger-than-forecast losses for the reported period. Forward EPS remains negative at -$0.065.

Liquidity and balance sheet: cash and short‑term investments total $3.03 billion, producing a cash ratio of 17.75 and a current ratio of 18.47, providing a large near‑term liquidity cushion relative to current liabilities of $170.7 million. Total debt stands at $2.99 billion with debt‑to‑assets 49.44% and debt‑to‑equity 1.44, reflecting meaningful leverage alongside substantial cash holdings.

Valuation multiples show extreme dispersion: P/B about 11.91 while P/S and EV/R are elevated (P/S 1,681.04; EVR 1,678.45), reflecting valuation measures that the market currently prices well above revenue and typical book comparisons. WMDST values the stock as over‑valued based on those valuation metrics together with negative operating profitability and high enterprise valuation versus fundamentals.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-11
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-10
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 2.8 B
 Operating Cash Flow -48.06 M
 Capital Expenditures -279.26 M
 Change In Working Capital 27.3 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 678.9 M
 End Period Cash Flow 3.5 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 14.7 M
 Forward Revenue 374.4 K
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 11.6 M
 Depreciation 17.6 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 17.6 M
 Research and Development 91.2 M
 Total Operating Expenses 164.1 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 3.1 M
 EBITDA -206.52 M
 EBIT -224.13 M
 Operating Income -149.41 M
 Interest Income 27.0 M
 Interest Expense 24.3 M
 Net Interest Income 2.7 M
 Income Before Tax -248.41 M
 Tax Provision 1.2 M
 Tax Rate 40.0 %
 Net Income -191.01 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -249.58 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate -0.20
 EPS Actual -0.66
 EPS Difference -0.46
 EPS Surprise -230.0 %
 Forward EPS -0.07
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 6.1 B
 Intangible Assets 267.7 M
 Net Tangible Assets 1.8 B
 Total Current Assets 3.2 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 3.0 B
 Cash 3.0 B
 Net Receivables 27.5 M
 Inventory 16.8 M
 Long-Term Investments 973.3 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 60.9 M
 Short-Term Debt 8.2 M
 Total Current Liabilities 170.7 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 3.0 B
 Total Liabilities 3.4 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 2.1 B
 Retained Earnings -1.02 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 6.97
 Shares Outstanding 298.454 M
 Revenue Per-Share 0.05
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 24.8 B
 Enterprise Value 24.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple -119.756
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -70.418 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 5.364 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 77.442
mean: 48.532
median: 30.638
low: 24.602
ASTS: -119.756
 EV/R 1678.446
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.91
 Asset To Liability 1.785
 Debt To Capital 0.59
 Debt To Assets 0.494
Debt To Assets QoQ 10.687 %
Debt To Assets YoY 41.126 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.871
ASTS: 0.494
median: 0.414
mean: 0.41
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 1.439
Debt To Equity QoQ 18.292 %
Debt To Equity YoY 70.494 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.597
ASTS: 1.439
median: 0.002
mean: -10.017
low: -25.554
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 11.912
Price To Book QoQ -11.788 %
Price To Book YoY 16.32 %
Price To Book IPRWA ASTS: 11.912
high: 3.699
median: 0.938
mean: -2.482
low: -10.699
 Price To Earnings (P/E) -125.749
Price To Earnings QoQ -62.47 %
Price To Earnings YoY 2.325 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 661.024
mean: 100.582
median: 50.409
low: -47.351
ASTS: -125.749
 PE/G Ratio -0.817
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1681.037
Price To Sales QoQ 267.101 %
Price To Sales YoY -79.272 %
Price To Sales IPRWA ASTS: 1681.037
high: 4.659
mean: 3.97
median: 3.921
low: 2.232
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E -1184.148
Forward PE/G -7.697
Forward P/S 57934.123
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -2.627
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.003
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -81.476 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 329.032 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.481
mean: 0.265
median: 0.109
low: 0.078
ASTS: 0.003
 Receivables Turnover 0.452
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -79.511 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 7.517
mean: 4.76
median: 2.67
low: 1.969
ASTS: 0.452
 Inventory Turnover 0.81
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -68.479 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 8.707
mean: 3.664
median: 3.199
low: 0.874
ASTS: 0.81
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 201.818
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 79.507
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -113.802 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA ASTS: 79.507
high: 10.475
median: 5.174
mean: -13.457
low: -136.613
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.005
 CapEx To Revenue -18.952
 CapEx To Depreciation -15.854
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 5.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 5.1 B
 Invested Capital 5.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.8 B
 Net Working Capital 3.0 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 17.748
 Current Ratio 18.469
Current Ratio QoQ 12.94 %
Current Ratio YoY 73.864 %
Current Ratio IPRWA ASTS: 18.469
high: 1.903
median: 1.857
mean: 1.781
low: 1.21
 Quick Ratio 18.37
Quick Ratio QoQ 12.891 %
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA ASTS: 18.37
high: 2.208
median: 0.909
mean: 0.873
low: 0.402
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -14.485
 Cost Of Debt 0.557 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -9.232
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 117.673 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -25.545 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 33.802
mean: 15.347
median: 0.82
low: -0.162
ASTS: -9.232
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.901
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 166.928
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 20.676 %
 Revenue Growth -72.866 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -127.144 %
Revenue Growth YoY 16.464 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: -0.556 %
median: -0.693 %
mean: -0.695 %
low: -1.084 %
ASTS: -72.866 %
 Earnings Growth 153.846 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -464.374 %
Earnings Growth YoY 1284.628 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA ASTS: 153.846 %
high: 51.613 %
mean: 6.702 %
median: 6.383 %
low: -115.385 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 20.943 %
Gross Margin QoQ -54.31 %
Gross Margin YoY -79.057 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 57.509 %
median: 45.972 %
mean: 43.981 %
low: 37.838 %
ASTS: 20.943 %
 EBIT Margin -1521.099 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 974.078 %
EBIT Margin YoY -81.402 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 8.616 %
median: 4.714 %
mean: 3.397 %
low: -2.97 %
ASTS: -1521.099 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -1013.994 %
Return On Sales QoQ 661.857 %
Return On Sales YoY -87.602 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 8.616 %
median: 8.248 %
mean: 2.349 %
low: -6.871 %
ASTS: -1013.994 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -327.32 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -1.321 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -8.518 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -48.378 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 2.56 %
median: 2.155 %
mean: 0.343 %
ASTS: -1.321 %
low: -2.818 %
 Free Cash Growth -8.866 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -203.587 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -125.42 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 22.591 %
ASTS: -8.866 %
median: -27.004 %
mean: -143.961 %
low: -301.573 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.714
 Cash Flow Margin -1043.678 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.805
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) -3.452 %
Return On Assets QoQ 76.573 %
Return On Assets YoY -12.23 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.143 %
mean: 0.882 %
median: -0.167 %
low: -1.285 %
ASTS: -3.452 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -3.812 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.092
Return On Equity QoQ 128.678 %
Return On Equity YoY 14.282 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.38
mean: 0.179
median: 0.062
low: -0.006
ASTS: -0.092
 DuPont ROE -9.732 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -2.663 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 78.008 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -52.967 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 6.382 %
mean: 2.823 %
median: 0.495 %
low: -0.342 %
ASTS: -2.663 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect elevated event risk and high volatility over the next six weeks as the capital‑markets impact of the convertible offering digests and satellite launch cadence remains the key operational catalyst. Technical indicators favor the downside in the near term unless MACD momentum reverses above its signal line and price recaptures the 20‑day average; conversely, the negative MRO suggests latent upside should confirmed operational milestones arrive. Liquidity sits ample, lowering immediate solvency risk, but leverage and continued negative EBITDA keep execution risk intact. Traders should monitor deployment timing updates, convertible note disclosures, and any shifts in MACD/DI+ behavior for directional clarity, while short‑term price structure remains biased toward further consolidation or drawdown until tangible deployment progress appears.

About AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) develops a space-based cellular broadband network designed to enhance global connectivity. Founded in 2017 and headquartered in Midland, Texas, the company aims to bridge the digital divide by providing mobile broadband access to areas beyond the reach of traditional networks. AST SpaceMobile’s technology connects smartphones directly to satellites, enabling reliable cellular services in remote locations. By deploying a constellation of satellites, the company seeks to make mobile connectivity accessible anytime and anywhere. With a focus on innovation, AST SpaceMobile addresses the challenges of global communication by expanding the reach of mobile networks, ensuring that users can stay connected regardless of their location.



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