Viavi Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ:VIAV) Signals Near-Term Weakness Despite Product Wins

Viavi shows mixed operational momentum: product launches and governance moves contrast with technical weakness and a valuation flagged as over-valued by WMDST.

Recent News

May 12, 2026 — Board rotates audit leadership; Joanne Solomon assumes Audit Committee chair, with Donald Colvin remaining on the board. May 19, 2026 — Company announced a proposed public offering and later priced a sale of common stock. June 23, 2026 — Viavi launched an Ultra Ethernet Transport validation solution aimed at AI data center deployments.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 22.95 indicates an emerging trend; directional structure favors downside because DI− stands at 28.72 and is increasing, while DI+ shows a peak-and-reversal at 14.99, signaling bearish directional pressure that pressures near-term price bias.

MACD sits negative at −2.42 and is decreasing with the MACD below its signal line (signal −1.71), confirming bearish momentum that supports near-term downward bias against the current valuation.

MRO reads −2.89 (negative), indicating price sits below the technical target and implying mean-reversion pressure that could support a counter-trend bounce even while momentum remains bearish.

RSI at 43.61 shows a recent dip-and-reversal, signalling a short-term bounce potential rather than sustained strength; that bounce would likely meet resistance given the broader momentum picture.

Price relationships amplify resistance: close $38.16 lies below the 20‑day average $42.23 and the 50‑day average $48.24, but above the 200‑day average $30.62, implying consolidation between long-term support and shorter-term resistance bands. Price also sits marginally below the 1× Bollinger lower band ($38.56), highlighting volatility and a locally stretched move lower.

Ichimoku levels (Tenkan $42.12, Kijun $46.16, Senkou A $50.70, Senkou B $45.50) place the price beneath the cloud and both conversion/base lines, adding a bearish overlay to near-term price action.

Volume at 7.46M exceeded the 10‑day average 4.66M and roughly matched the 50‑day average 7.41M during the latest session, indicating conviction behind recent moves and validating the technical momentum signals.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Top-line: total revenue $406,800,000. Year-over-year revenue growth measures 96.40%, while quarter-over-quarter revenue declined 56.74%, showing large sequential normalization after a strong year-over-year comparison.

Profitability: gross margin equals 57.55% and operating margin equals 10.35%, with EBIT margin at 6.64%. EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean of 15.99% and below the industry peer median of 16.04%, though above the industry peer low. EBITDA equals $57,700,000; EBIT $27,000,000; net income $6,400,000, reflecting thin bottom-line conversion versus gross profit.

Earnings: reported EPS $0.27 versus an estimate of $0.23, producing an EPS surprise of +17.39%, which supported short-term attention to the name but does not alter the heavier leverage and cash-flow picture.

Cash and liquidity: cash $499,000,000 and cash & short‑term investments $500,800,000 provide liquidity buffer; current ratio 1.61 and quick ratio 1.39 show working capital coverage but a declining current ratio QoQ. Operating cash flow turned negative at −$15,200,000 and free cash flow negative at −$32,200,000, producing a free cash flow yield of −0.41%.

Leverage and coverage: total debt $1,136,500,000, net debt $581,800,000, debt-to-EBITDA ~19.7× and debt-to-equity ~1.34, indicating materially elevated leverage relative to operating earnings and limited interest coverage (interest coverage ~2.05×). Those debt metrics amplify valuation risk given the weak cash-flow conversion.

Capital efficiency: asset turnover 0.153 and cash conversion cycle ~101 days (near the industry peer mean ~100.7 days), reflecting slow asset utilization and extended working capital. R&D at $71,000,000 supports product development but depresses near-term free cash flow.

Valuation: price-to-earnings ~126.4× and forward P/E ~102.1×, price-to-book ~9.33× (above the industry peer mean of 7.40 but below the peer high), and a forward PS ~6.95. WMDST values the stock as over-valued given stretched multiples alongside negative free cash flow and high leverage.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-29
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 776.1 M
 Operating Cash Flow -15.20 M
 Capital Expenditures -5.90 M
 Change In Working Capital -114.80 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -264.80 M
 End Period Cash Flow 511.3 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 406.8 M
 Forward Revenue 1.1 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 172.7 M
 Depreciation 10.3 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 30.7 M
 Research and Development 71.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 364.7 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 234.1 M
 EBITDA 57.7 M
 EBIT 27.0 M
 Operating Income 42.1 M
 Interest Income 7.0 M
 Interest Expense 13.2 M
 Net Interest Income -7.30 M
 Income Before Tax 13.8 M
 Tax Provision 7.4 M
 Tax Rate 40.0 %
 Net Income 6.4 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 6.4 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.23
 EPS Actual 0.27
 EPS Difference 0.04
 EPS Surprise 17.391 %
 Forward EPS 0.31
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.5 B
 Intangible Assets 1.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets -253.30 M
 Total Current Assets 1.1 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 500.8 M
 Cash 499.0 M
 Net Receivables 320.3 M
 Inventory 147.9 M
 Long-Term Investments 21.8 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 81.7 M
 Short-Term Debt 244.5 M
 Total Current Liabilities 652.5 M
 Net Debt 581.8 M
 Total Debt 1.1 B
 Total Liabilities 1.7 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 846.5 M
 Retained Earnings -69.72 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 3.66
 Shares Outstanding 231.400 M
 Revenue Per-Share 1.76
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 7.9 B
 Enterprise Value 8.5 B
 Enterprise Multiple 147.908
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -86.413 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 48.69 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 364.265
VIAV: 147.908
mean: 89.263
median: 79.445
low: -215.509
 EV/R 20.979
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.986
 Asset To Liability 1.503
 Debt To Capital 0.573
 Debt To Assets 0.45
Debt To Assets QoQ -6.083 %
Debt To Assets YoY 25.731 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.98
VIAV: 0.45
mean: 0.262
median: 0.238
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 1.343
Debt To Equity QoQ -15.768 %
Debt To Equity YoY 41.541 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.293
VIAV: 1.343
mean: 0.664
median: 0.447
low: -0.773
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 9.331
Price To Book QoQ 94.153 %
Price To Book YoY 187.971 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 12.284
VIAV: 9.331
mean: 7.4
median: 5.875
low: -2.416
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 126.422
Price To Earnings QoQ 60.512 %
Price To Earnings YoY 78.353 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 398.734
median: 131.744
VIAV: 126.422
mean: 122.146
low: -220.021
 PE/G Ratio 5.563
 Price To Sales (P/S) 19.416
Price To Sales QoQ 78.833 %
Price To Sales YoY 134.168 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 99.122
median: 22.531
mean: 20.537
VIAV: 19.416
low: 0.0
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 102.092
Forward PE/G 4.492
Forward P/S 6.949
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -20.657
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.153
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.901 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -1.509 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.534
mean: 0.194
median: 0.189
VIAV: 0.153
low: 0.001
 Receivables Turnover 1.345
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -4.104 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 9.873 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.612
mean: 1.44
median: 1.439
VIAV: 1.345
low: 0.528
 Inventory Turnover 1.196
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.0 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 0.674 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.973
median: 1.202
VIAV: 1.196
mean: 1.072
low: 0.128
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 67.843
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 101.135
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -1.58 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -8.27 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 308.893
VIAV: 101.135
mean: 100.732
median: 82.542
low: -44.852
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.014
 CapEx To Revenue -0.015
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.573
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.7 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets -253.30 M
 Net Working Capital 401.2 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.768
 Current Ratio 1.615
Current Ratio QoQ -38.164 %
Current Ratio YoY 5.293 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 14.867
mean: 2.635
median: 1.885
VIAV: 1.615
low: 0.37
 Quick Ratio 1.388
Quick Ratio QoQ -40.255 %
Quick Ratio YoY 5.138 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 13.913
mean: 2.068
VIAV: 1.388
median: 1.259
low: 0.247
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 19.697
 Cost Of Debt 1.024 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 2.045
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -217.239 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 39.738 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 69.571
mean: 10.857
median: 8.916
VIAV: 2.045
low: -197.838
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.023
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 49.765
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -9.0 %
 Revenue Growth 10.154 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -56.736 %
Revenue Growth YoY 96.402 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 20.926 %
VIAV: 10.154 %
mean: 8.376 %
median: 7.186 %
low: -56.837 %
 Earnings Growth 22.727 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -51.3 %
Earnings Growth YoY 47.722 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 207.143 %
VIAV: 22.727 %
median: 9.278 %
mean: 3.984 %
low: -186.111 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 57.547 %
Gross Margin QoQ 0.912 %
Gross Margin YoY 1.987 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 99.349 %
VIAV: 57.547 %
mean: 38.273 %
median: 36.748 %
low: -36.179 %
 EBIT Margin 6.637 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -199.64 %
EBIT Margin YoY 87.169 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 212.511 %
median: 16.044 %
mean: 15.992 %
VIAV: 6.637 %
low: -337.296 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 10.349 %
Return On Sales QoQ 238.203 %
Return On Sales YoY 191.85 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 40.821 %
mean: 16.386 %
median: 15.629 %
VIAV: 10.349 %
low: -176.472 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -32.20 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.408 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -144.348 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -1071.429 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 5.592 %
median: 0.483 %
mean: 0.243 %
VIAV: -0.408 %
low: -18.584 %
 Free Cash Growth -187.263 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -392.598 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 92.539 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 300.72 %
mean: 5.838 %
median: -41.449 %
VIAV: -187.263 %
low: -399.154 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -5.031
 Cash Flow Margin -3.736 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -2.375
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.241 %
Return On Assets QoQ -112.178 %
Return On Assets YoY -77.392 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 12.143 %
median: 2.381 %
mean: 2.216 %
VIAV: 0.241 %
low: -20.105 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.44 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.008
Return On Equity QoQ -113.114 %
Return On Equity YoY -71.749 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.162
median: 0.065
mean: 0.051
VIAV: 0.008
low: -0.303
 DuPont ROE 0.761 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 0.841 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -191.314 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 90.271 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.857 %
median: 3.398 %
mean: 2.89 %
VIAV: 0.841 %
low: -10.75 %

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum and directional indicators point to continued technical pressure unless MACD momentum stabilizes above its signal and DI+ resumes an upward trajectory. A short-term bounce remains plausible because the MRO is negative and RSI shows a dip-and-reversal; any bounce will likely encounter resistance near the 20‑day average and the Tenkan/Kijun levels. Fundamentals—negative free cash flow, high debt-to-EBITDA, and expensive P/E multiples—limit upside durability while increasing sensitivity to execution or financing news. Traders should monitor momentum confirmation (MACD behavior and DI+ direction) and short-term volume as the primary determinants of whether the current technical weakness resolves into consolidation or accelerates lower.

About Viavi Solutions Inc.

Viavi Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ:VIAV) develops advanced network test, monitoring, and assurance solutions catering to a diverse clientele, including communications service providers, hyperscalers, network equipment manufacturers, original equipment manufacturers, government entities, and avionics customers. Headquartered in Chandler, Arizona, Viavi Solutions operates globally, serving regions across the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company organizes its operations into three primary segments: Network Enablement (NE), Service Enablement (SE), and Optical Security and Performance Products (OSP). The NE segment delivers comprehensive testing solutions that facilitate network build-out and maintenance, utilizing instruments, software, and services to design, activate, certify, troubleshoot, and optimize networks. This segment also provides test and measurement instrumentation for sectors such as aviation, aerospace, government, and defense. The SE segment enhances communication service providers, enterprises, and cloud operators with embedded systems and enterprise performance management solutions, offering visibility into network, service, and application data. Meanwhile, the OSP segment produces optical products for anti-counterfeiting, consumer electronics, industrial, government, automotive, and industrial markets. Founded in 1923, Viavi Solutions continues to innovate in the field of network and optical solutions, maintaining a strong presence across multiple industries.



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