CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CME) Accelerates Product Rollouts While Momentum Suggests Near-Term Upside

CME Group moves into a product-driven stretch backed by improving short-term momentum, even as WMDST’s valuation marks the stock as over-valued. Near-term price action should reflect a balance between technical strength and rich multiples.

Recent News

On June 17, 2026 the company announced that Terry Duffy will transition to Executive Chairman on March 1, 2027, with President and CFO Lynne Fitzpatrick appointed CEO.

On June 30, 2026 CME Group said it will launch Single Stock futures across more than 50 top U.S. names pending regulatory review, with a planned start date of July 27, 2026.

On July 9, 2026 the company announced Treasury Link, a new functionality to connect U.S. Treasury cash and futures spread trading.

On June 8, 2026 Nasdaq CME Crypto Index futures went live, creating a regulated vehicle for a basket-based crypto derivatives product.

Technical Analysis

ADX and Directional Indicators — ADX at 26.68 signals a strong trend environment; DI+ rising (22.07) while DI- falls (29.29 and decreasing) indicates a shift toward bullish directional pressure, supporting potential near-term upside despite the stock’s stretched valuation.

MACD and Signal — MACD sits negative at -4.81 but has crossed above its signal line (-7.57), a bullish momentum trigger that implies recent selling pressure has eased and momentum may continue to recover.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator) — MRO at -34.25 with a dip-and-reversal pattern indicates the price sits below the model target and that mean-reversion upside potential exists, which aligns with other bullish momentum signals.

RSI and Short-Term Strength — RSI at 45.67 and increasing points to rebuilding buying pressure without overbought conditions, allowing room for further momentum-driven gains while volatility remains muted.

Price vs Moving Averages and Bands — Close at $246.27 sits above the 12-day EMA ($241.61) and slightly above the 26-day EMA ($245.57), yet below the 200-day average ($274.03). The close near the upper 1σ Bollinger band ($247.04) shows near-term strength but leaves the longer-term average as resistance; the SuperTrend lower support sits at $228.72.

Volume & Volatility — Recent volume (2,311,842) trails the 10-day average (2,882,564) and 50-day average (3,528,199), suggesting recovery in momentum without a confirmed breakout impulse; 42-day volatility remains low, favoring steady moves rather than violent swings.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Top-line and profitability — Total revenue reached $1,880,100,000. YoY revenue growth registered 82.96%, with QoQ revenue growth at 94.23%; both indicate unusually strong recent top-line acceleration. Net income totaled $1,154,300,000 and operating income amounted to $1,309,700,000.

Margins and peer context — EBIT margin equals 82.68%, above the industry peer mean of 35.07% and above the industry peer high of 76.81%, reflecting exceptionally high operating profitability relative to peers. Gross margin sits at 88.14% and operating margin at 69.66%, both holding well above typical peer medians.

Cash generation and capital returns — Operating cash flow reached $1,259,900,000 with free cash flow of $1,238,100,000 and a free cash flow yield of 1.16%. Cash conversion ratio of 62.60% and free cash flow to net income above 100% indicate strong cash conversion despite a low free cash flow yield versus market norms.

Balance sheet, leverage and distributions — Total equity stands at $26,618,200,000, total debt $3,423,200,000, and net debt ~$1,032,000,000. Debt-to-EBITDA near 2.09x and an interest coverage ratio of 35.65x reflect conservative leverage. Dividends yield 2.52% with a dividend payout ratio of 233.7%, and dividends paid totaled -$2,697,600,000; the payout ratio implies distributions materially exceed current period earnings on a simplistic basis and warrants monitoring.

Earnings and forward multiples — Reported EPS of $3.36 missed the $3.37 estimate by ~$0.01 (surprise ratio -0.30%). Trailing PE about 87.8x and forward PE near 90.9x place multiples well above the industry peer mean PE of ~61.0x and median of ~52.95x, consistent with WMDST’s classification of the stock as over-valued.

Valuation statement — WMDST values the stock as over-valued, driven by elevated multiples versus peer means and a price implied higher than the mean analyst target; strong cash flow and margins provide fundamental support, but the premium multiples constrains valuation upside absent further growth evidence.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-22
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-22
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 164.1 B
 Operating Cash Flow 1.3 B
 Capital Expenditures -21.80 M
 Change In Working Capital 2.1 M
 Dividends Paid -2.70 B
 Cash Flow Delta 3.4 B
 End Period Cash Flow 167.4 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.9 B
 Forward Revenue 473.2 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 223.0 M
 Depreciation 27.2 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 83.3 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 570.4 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.7 B
 EBITDA 1.6 B
 EBIT 1.6 B
 Operating Income 1.3 B
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 43.6 M
 Net Interest Income -43.60 M
 Income Before Tax 1.5 B
 Tax Provision 356.6 M
 Tax Rate 23.6 %
 Net Income 1.2 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 1.2 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 3.37
 EPS Actual 3.36
 EPS Difference -0.01
 EPS Surprise -0.297 %
 Forward EPS 3.21
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 202.0 B
 Intangible Assets 30.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets -3.61 B
 Total Current Assets 169.0 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 2.5 B
 Cash 2.4 B
 Net Receivables 935.5 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 2.4 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 75.4 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 166.0 B
 Net Debt 1.0 B
 Total Debt 3.4 B
 Total Liabilities 175.4 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 26.6 B
 Retained Earnings 4.9 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 73.37
 Shares Outstanding 361.793 M
 Revenue Per-Share 5.18
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 107.1 B
 Enterprise Value 108.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 65.917
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 14.595 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -2.743 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 289.321
CME: 65.917
median: 45.311
mean: 15.905
low: -409.91
 EV/R 57.421
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 7.589
 Asset To Liability 1.152
 Debt To Capital 0.114
 Debt To Assets 0.017
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.739 %
Debt To Assets YoY -21.745 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.674
median: 0.211
mean: 0.209
CME: 0.017
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 0.129
Debt To Equity QoQ 7.949 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1.66 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.986
mean: 1.854
median: 1.304
CME: 0.129
low: -1.068
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 4.022
Price To Book QoQ 16.509 %
Price To Book YoY 19.612 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 7.056
CME: 4.022
mean: 3.095
median: 2.56
low: -0.507
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 87.816
Price To Earnings QoQ 3.248 %
Price To Earnings YoY -2.699 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 131.673
CME: 87.816
mean: 61.045
median: 52.952
low: -78.913
 PE/G Ratio 4.123
 Price To Sales (P/S) 56.939
Price To Sales QoQ -5.335 %
Price To Sales YoY 2.889 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 89.649
CME: 56.939
mean: 24.612
median: 19.326
low: -50.338
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 90.888
Forward PE/G 4.267
Forward P/S 225.24
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -0.297
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.009
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 9.825 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -15.558 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.275
mean: 0.039
median: 0.013
CME: 0.009
low: -0.147
 Receivables Turnover 2.388
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -7.154 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -2.343 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 9.786
CME: 2.388
mean: 1.55
median: 0.21
low: 0.039
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 38.214
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.626
 CapEx To Revenue -0.012
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.801
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 30.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 30.0 B
 Invested Capital 30.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets -3.61 B
 Net Working Capital 3.0 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.015
 Current Ratio 1.018
Current Ratio QoQ -1.308 %
Current Ratio YoY 0.139 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 8.141
mean: 2.065
median: 1.178
CME: 1.018
low: 0.007
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 2.09
 Cost Of Debt 0.957 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 35.654
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -3.948 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 15.566 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 98.464
CME: 35.654
mean: 7.435
median: 5.832
low: -19.59
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.006
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 27.856
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.428
 Dividend Payout Ratio 2.337
 Dividend Rate 7.44
 Dividend Yield 0.025
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.799 %
 Revenue Growth 14.035 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 94.229 %
Revenue Growth YoY 82.962 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 130.559 %
CME: 14.035 %
median: -1.879 %
mean: -4.417 %
low: -156.276 %
 Earnings Growth 21.3 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 1.933 %
Earnings Growth YoY 91.702 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 45.0 %
CME: 21.3 %
median: 2.878 %
mean: -1.857 %
low: -132.432 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 88.139 %
Gross Margin QoQ 3.236 %
Gross Margin YoY 0.829 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 107.251 %
CME: 88.139 %
median: 69.779 %
mean: 64.75 %
low: 14.434 %
 EBIT Margin 82.682 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -15.962 %
EBIT Margin YoY 5.549 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA CME: 82.682 %
high: 76.812 %
median: 35.611 %
mean: 35.067 %
low: -62.871 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 69.661 %
Return On Sales QoQ 12.642 %
Return On Sales YoY -11.073 %
Return On Sales IPRWA CME: 69.661 %
high: 69.485 %
mean: 35.433 %
median: 31.446 %
low: -58.213 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.2 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.157 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 4.14 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -4.617 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 29.426 %
CME: 1.157 %
median: 0.482 %
mean: -1.775 %
low: -27.411 %
 Free Cash Growth 12.411 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -22.3 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 11.18 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 314.536 %
CME: 12.411 %
mean: -2.012 %
median: -8.399 %
low: -569.703 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.073
 Cash Flow Margin 50.258 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.819
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.577 %
Return On Assets QoQ -6.026 %
Return On Assets YoY -10.957 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.815 %
mean: 0.827 %
CME: 0.577 %
median: 0.371 %
low: -7.04 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 4.319 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.043
Return On Equity QoQ 5.318 %
Return On Equity YoY 22.618 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.222
median: 0.052
mean: 0.048
CME: 0.043
low: -0.194
 DuPont ROE 4.171 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.953 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 4.549 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 21.818 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 18.847 %
CME: 3.953 %
mean: 3.471 %
median: 3.357 %
low: -11.601 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical setup suggests a near-term constructive phase: directional indicators and a MACD signal-cross support momentum, MRO implies mean-reversion potential from below-target levels, and RSI remains comfortably below overbought territory. The price sits below the 200-day average, so sustained follow-through above intermediate resistance near the 50-day and 200-day averages will determine whether momentum extends. Given the over-valued multiple environment and a price-target mean ($236.40) that sits below the current price, expect price action to show measured gains punctuated by profit-taking windows rather than runaway trends; watch volume to confirm any decisive move.

About CME Group Inc.

CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CME) develops a comprehensive platform for trading futures and options on futures contracts, serving as a cornerstone in the global financial markets. Established in Chicago in 1898, CME Group has grown into a leader in the financial exchange industry, offering a wide range of products that include interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals. This extensive product suite caters to a diverse clientele, including professional traders, financial institutions, corporations, and government entities. CME Group also delivers robust clearing house services, facilitating the smooth clearing, settlement, and guarantee of futures and options contracts, as well as cleared swaps. Their trade processing and risk mitigation services enhance market stability and efficiency. Additionally, the company provides extensive market data services, offering both real-time and historical insights to market participants. By equipping investors and institutions with essential tools and information, CME Group plays a crucial role in fostering transparency, liquidity, and opportunity across the world’s financial markets. The company’s commitment to innovation and reliability continues to shape the financial landscape, supporting the needs of a complex and evolving market environment.



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