Rockwell Automation, Inc (NYSE:ROK) Signals Margin Expansion Will Drive Near-Term Repricing

Rockwell Automation shows stretched multiples alongside improving operating margins and an earnings beat, creating conditions for a near-term repricing event. Momentum indicators and mean-reversion signals point toward consolidation with downside vulnerability.

Recent News

On April 20 the company demonstrated an AI‑orchestrated factory system design at Hannover Messe; on June 22 Rockwell launched FactoryTalk Orchestration at Automate and highlighted modernization work with a beverage distillery; the company presented at investor conferences in June discussing product commercialization and partner ecosystem developments.

Technical Analysis

ADX registers 12.65, indicating no established trend; directional readings show DI+ at 23.71 with a peak‑and‑reversal (bearish) and DI‑ at 26.07 increasing (bearish), producing a seller‑biased directional posture despite weak trend strength.

MACD sits at 3.66 and trends downward while trading below its signal line (6.01), signaling weakening bullish momentum and favoring near‑term negative momentum pressure relative to the recent upmove.

MRO reads 16.25 and trends lower, indicating the market price currently sits above model target and carries a higher probability of downward mean reversion; RSI at 52.14 and declining places momentum near neutral but cooling, supporting the MACD‑derived momentum warning.

Price closed at $468.67, below the 20‑day average ($473.18) and the 12‑day EMA (price12dayEMA trend decreasing), yet above the 50‑day ($459.68) and well above the 200‑day ($402.98). Bollinger 1σ bands sit roughly $462–$484 and the superTrend lower support appears near $459.56, framing a consolidation band inside a longer‑term bullish range; 42‑day beta at 1.82 signals elevated short‑term volatility relative to the market.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins support a premium valuation. EBIT of $374,000,000 and EBITDA of $452,000,000 yield an EBIT margin of 17.77%. That EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean (19.13%) and median (20.50%) while remaining well above the industry peer low and within the peer high bound (27.29%).

Earnings and cash metrics: EPS came in at $3.30 versus an estimate of $2.88, producing an EPS surprise of 14.58%. Net income totaled $305,000,000. Operating cash flow reached $234,000,000 and free cash flow $170,000,000, producing a free cash flow yield of 0.38%, below the industry peer mean (0.87%) and median (0.77%) despite a cash‑to‑earnings conversion ratio of 135.74% that indicates earnings quality in cash terms.

Growth and efficiency: YoY revenue growth measured 20.04% while recent quarter‑to‑quarter revenue showed a contraction; asset turnover sits at 0.188 with modest year‑over‑year improvement. Return on equity near 8.14% and return on assets near 2.72% provide positive but moderate returns on capital employed.

Valuation profile drives the WMDST view. P/E stands at 145.38, above the industry peer mean (100.19) and median (95.80) but below the peer high (155.62). Price‑to‑book registers 11.99, materially above the industry peer mean (3.93), median (3.88), and peer high (7.31). Price‑to‑sales at 21.34 sits above the peer mean (17.26) and median (18.09). Free cash flow yield remains low and trending down YoY, while margins and an EPS beat provide some support for a premium; the current valuation as determined by WMDST: over‑valued.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 468.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 234.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -64.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -171.00 M
 Dividends Paid -156.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta -24.00 M
 End Period Cash Flow 444.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 2.1 B
 Forward Revenue 666.0 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.1 B
 Depreciation 44.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 78.0 M
 Research and Development 172.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 1.7 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.0 B
 EBITDA 452.0 M
 EBIT 374.0 M
 Operating Income 366.0 M
 Interest Income 3.0 M
 Interest Expense 32.0 M
 Net Interest Income -29.00 M
 Income Before Tax 342.0 M
 Tax Provision 40.0 M
 Tax Rate 11.696 %
 Net Income 305.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 302.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 2.88
 EPS Actual 3.30
 EPS Difference 0.42
 EPS Surprise 14.583 %
 Forward EPS 3.44
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 11.2 B
 Intangible Assets 4.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets -881.00 M
 Total Current Assets 4.0 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 444.0 M
 Cash 444.0 M
 Net Receivables 1.8 B
 Inventory 1.2 B
 Long-Term Investments 825.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 774.0 M
 Short-Term Debt 826.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 3.5 B
 Net Debt 3.0 B
 Total Debt 3.8 B
 Total Liabilities 7.4 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.7 B
 Retained Earnings 5.6 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 33.34
 Shares Outstanding 112.358 M
 Revenue Per-Share 18.73
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 44.9 B
 Enterprise Value 48.2 B
 Enterprise Multiple 106.747
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -53.271 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 9.484 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA ROK: 106.747
high: 81.749
median: 72.625
mean: 70.582
low: -66.921
 EV/R 22.921
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.998
 Asset To Liability 1.511
 Debt To Capital 0.502
 Debt To Assets 0.336
Debt To Assets QoQ 3.356 %
Debt To Assets YoY 250.527 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.556
ROK: 0.336
median: 0.332
mean: 0.258
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 1.007
Debt To Equity QoQ 0.915 %
Debt To Equity YoY 225.011 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.057
ROK: 1.007
median: 0.686
mean: 0.51
low: -0.025
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 11.992
Price To Book QoQ 12.117 %
Price To Book YoY 28.467 %
Price To Book IPRWA ROK: 11.992
high: 7.309
mean: 3.932
median: 3.877
low: -1.578
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 145.382
Price To Earnings QoQ 39.694 %
Price To Earnings YoY -4.792 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 155.616
ROK: 145.382
mean: 100.194
median: 95.804
low: -59.489
 PE/G Ratio 1.176
 Price To Sales (P/S) 21.34
Price To Sales QoQ 26.461 %
Price To Sales YoY 27.039 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 30.036
ROK: 21.34
median: 18.088
mean: 17.262
low: 0.291
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 110.516
Forward PE/G 0.894
Forward P/S 67.45
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -30.075
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.188
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -9.256 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 10.552 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.367
ROK: 0.188
mean: 0.147
median: 0.124
low: 0.004
 Receivables Turnover 1.137
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -6.804 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 5.05 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.952
mean: 1.737
median: 1.715
ROK: 1.137
low: 0.513
 Inventory Turnover 0.884
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 55.998 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -3.673 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.152
mean: 0.986
median: 0.891
ROK: 0.884
low: 0.204
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 80.283
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 129.323
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 27.932 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 11.489 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 342.062
ROK: 129.323
median: 99.751
mean: 94.645
low: -9.339
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 3.92
 CapEx To Revenue -0.03
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.455
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 6.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 7.1 B
 Invested Capital 7.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets -881.00 M
 Net Working Capital 537.0 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.129
 Current Ratio 1.156
Current Ratio QoQ 1.787 %
Current Ratio YoY 7.17 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 12.516
mean: 1.437
ROK: 1.156
median: 1.062
low: 0.527
 Quick Ratio 0.803
Quick Ratio QoQ 3.806 %
Quick Ratio YoY 10.988 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 10.539
mean: 0.963
ROK: 0.803
median: 0.673
low: 0.513
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 8.347
 Cost Of Debt 0.762 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 11.688
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 332.438 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 80.878 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 21.707
mean: 12.228
ROK: 11.688
median: 7.681
low: -37.803
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.12
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 109.809
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.955
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.511
 Dividend Rate 1.39
 Dividend Yield 0.003
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.098 %
 Revenue Growth -9.111 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -213.575 %
Revenue Growth YoY 20.04 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 33.477 %
mean: -3.188 %
median: -5.409 %
ROK: -9.111 %
low: -53.48 %
 Earnings Growth 123.577 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 570.157 %
Earnings Growth YoY -576.929 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 137.864 %
ROK: 123.577 %
mean: -0.698 %
median: -9.808 %
low: -93.333 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 48.266 %
Gross Margin QoQ -30.483 %
Gross Margin YoY 25.745 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 67.596 %
ROK: 48.266 %
mean: 43.308 %
median: 42.132 %
low: -20.898 %
 EBIT Margin 17.767 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 311.464 %
EBIT Margin YoY 32.619 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 27.289 %
median: 20.502 %
mean: 19.131 %
ROK: 17.767 %
low: -50.815 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 17.387 %
Return On Sales QoQ -12.076 %
Return On Sales YoY 29.783 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 27.289 %
median: 19.88 %
mean: 18.982 %
ROK: 17.387 %
low: -109.381 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 170.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.378 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -63.514 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -59.223 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.828 %
mean: 0.87 %
median: 0.766 %
ROK: 0.378 %
low: -15.768 %
 Free Cash Growth -58.025 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 237.787 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 186.543 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 351.098 %
mean: -12.193 %
median: -28.504 %
ROK: -58.025 %
low: -318.157 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.557
 Cash Flow Margin 19.667 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.357
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 2.717 %
Return On Assets QoQ 120.715 %
Return On Assets YoY 63.773 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.193 %
ROK: 2.717 %
mean: 1.932 %
median: 1.843 %
low: -24.156 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 4.808 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.081
Return On Equity QoQ 115.568 %
Return On Equity YoY 49.779 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.236
ROK: 0.081
mean: 0.036
median: 0.03
low: -0.087
 DuPont ROE 8.243 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 4.622 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 302.263 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -87.319 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 5.302 %
ROK: 4.622 %
mean: 2.721 %
median: 2.701 %
low: -14.79 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect range‑bound action with a bearish tilt. Directional indicators and a declining MACD favor lower or flat sessions, with immediate support around the superTrend lower near $459.56 and the 50‑day average at $459.68; resistance clusters near the 20‑day average ($473.18) and the upper Bollinger band near $484. Short‑term volatility and elevated 42‑day beta suggest rapid swings; fundamental overvaluation limits upside extension absent a material reacceleration in free cash flow or a sustained margin improvement surprise.

About Rockwell Automation, Inc.

Rockwell Automation, Inc. (NYSE:ROK) delivers industrial automation and digital transformation solutions across various regions, including North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through three primary segments: Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services. The Intelligent Devices segment designs and manufactures drives, motion control systems, safety and sensing equipment, industrial components, and configured-to-order products. The Software & Control segment develops control and visualization software, information software, and network and security infrastructure solutions. Meanwhile, the Lifecycle Services segment provides consulting, professional services, and connected and maintenance services. Rockwell Automation markets its solutions primarily through independent distributors in collaboration with its direct sales force. The company serves a diverse range of end markets, including automotive, semiconductor, warehousing, logistics, and general industries such as printing, publishing, and aerospace. Additionally, Rockwell Automation caters to hybrid markets like food and beverage, life sciences, and eco-industrial sectors, as well as process end markets, including oil and gas, mining, and chemicals. Established in 1903, Rockwell Automation maintains its headquarters in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.



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