Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE:BURL) Signals Near-Term Pullback After Momentum Peak

Mixed momentum and stretched valuation create a cautious short-term tone for the stock. Operational profitability lags peer means while gross margins and same-store strength support revenue resilience.

Recent News

May 2026 — Burlington outlined plans for an expanded store footprint, citing an increase in planned gross new stores for 2026. May 19, 2026 — the company held its virtual annual shareholder meeting and related proxy matters. June 22, 2026 — local reporting covered a new distribution/operations facility opening in Georgia that will add jobs. Early June filings noted an institutional ownership disclosure from an activist investor.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 12.99 indicates no established trend; directional movement shows weakness as DI+ decreases while DI- experienced a dip-and-reversal, both signaling bearish directional pressure that clashes with the current over-valued assessment.

MACD sits at 3.70 below the signal line at 4.27 with a peak-and-reversal pattern, indicating bearish momentum and a loss of upside conviction relative to recent highs.

MRO at 22.33 signals the price sits above model target and faces mean-reversion pressure; this reinforces the potential for near-term downside toward structural support levels given the valuation premium.

RSI reads 52.02 and shows a peak-and-reversal pattern, indicating waning upside momentum rather than oversold conditions—momentum no longer favors a sustained push higher.

Price relationships show short-term resistance: price trades below the 12-day and 20-day levels (12-day EMA and TenkanSen have peaked), while remaining above the 50-day and 200-day averages; Bollinger bands place the stock nearer the upper-middle band and super-trend support lies near $315.54. Volume today and over recent sessions trails the 50/200-day averages, reducing conviction behind any breakout attempts.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue stands at $2,856,461,000 with year-over-year revenue growth of -8.07% and an overall revenue change of -21.69%; quarter-over-quarter revenue fell sharply (reported QoQ change -162.73%).

Profitability: EBIT equals $159,164,000, giving an EBIT margin of 5.57%, down -6.16% YoY and down -53.44% QoQ; that margin sits below the industry peer mean of 11.27% and below the industry peer median of 12.14%.

Earnings: reported EPS of $2.01 beat the estimate of $1.80 by $0.21, a surprise of 11.67%, supporting short-term earnings momentum despite margin compression.

Cash flow and leverage: free cash flow recorded a deficit of $228,196,000 with a free cash flow yield of -1.16% and a free-cash decline both QoQ and YoY; operating cash flow remains positive at $109,266,000. Debt metrics show total debt of $5,871,547,000, debt-to-equity of 3.20 and debt-to-EBITDA near 22.26, indicating material leverage relative to earnings.

Balance-sheet and working capital: cash and short-term investments total $747,355,000, current ratio 1.16 and quick ratio 0.49; days inventory outstanding sits at 61.27 while cash-conversion-cycle days improved QoQ and YoY.

Margins and returns: gross margin at 44.17% exceeds the industry peer mean of 34.83%, contrasting with lower operating and EBIT margins. Return on equity registers near 6.25%, below the industry peer mean of 6.34% (but close to the peer mean figure provided).

Valuation: price multiples appear elevated—trailing PE ~155.50 and price-to-book ~10.71, both above the industry peer means provided. The current valuation as determined by WMDST: over-valued.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-04-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-27
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 1.2 B
 Operating Cash Flow 109.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -289.66 M
 Change In Working Capital -252.16 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -485.17 M
 End Period Cash Flow 747.4 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 2.9 B
 Forward Revenue 1.3 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.6 B
 Depreciation 104.6 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 104.6 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 2.7 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.3 B
 EBITDA 263.8 M
 EBIT 159.2 M
 Operating Income 167.7 M
 Interest Income 6.2 M
 Interest Expense 16.5 M
 Net Interest Income -10.33 M
 Income Before Tax 142.7 M
 Tax Provision 27.9 M
 Tax Rate 19.573 %
 Net Income 114.7 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 114.7 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.80
 EPS Actual 2.01
 EPS Difference 0.21
 EPS Surprise 11.667 %
 Forward EPS 3.44
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 9.8 B
 Intangible Assets 285.1 M
 Net Tangible Assets 1.6 B
 Total Current Assets 2.5 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 747.4 M
 Cash 747.4 M
 Net Receivables 114.0 M
 Inventory 1.4 B
 Long-Term Investments 85.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.1 B
 Short-Term Debt 20.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 2.2 B
 Net Debt 1.2 B
 Total Debt 5.9 B
 Total Liabilities 7.9 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.8 B
 Retained Earnings 2.2 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 29.18
 Shares Outstanding 62.942 M
 Revenue Per-Share 45.38
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 19.7 B
 Enterprise Value 24.8 B
 Enterprise Multiple 94.008
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 128.9 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 10.384 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA BURL: 94.008
high: 91.91
median: 61.914
mean: 61.224
low: -56.081
 EV/R 8.681
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 5.324
 Asset To Liability 1.231
 Debt To Capital 0.762
 Debt To Assets 0.601
Debt To Assets QoQ -0.806 %
Debt To Assets YoY -3.656 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.056
BURL: 0.601
mean: 0.395
median: 0.392
low: 0.053
 Debt To Equity 3.197
Debt To Equity QoQ -3.785 %
Debt To Equity YoY -18.883 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 4.366
BURL: 3.197
median: 1.346
mean: 1.22
low: -2.006
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 10.712
Price To Book QoQ 4.214 %
Price To Book YoY -6.68 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 11.726
BURL: 10.712
mean: 5.889
median: 4.231
low: -3.375
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 155.497
Price To Earnings QoQ 156.727 %
Price To Earnings YoY 1.126 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA BURL: 155.497
high: 151.867
mean: 93.23
median: 87.842
low: -111.133
 PE/G Ratio -2.64
 Price To Sales (P/S) 6.887
Price To Sales QoQ 35.227 %
Price To Sales YoY 11.109 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 12.449
median: 11.308
mean: 8.161
BURL: 6.887
low: 0.213
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 92.172
Forward PE/G -1.565
Forward P/S 14.584
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 2.93
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.29
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -22.403 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 0.315 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.733
median: 0.398
mean: 0.373
BURL: 0.29
low: 0.078
 Receivables Turnover 26.053
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -20.885 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 1.343 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 56.856
BURL: 26.053
median: 23.027
mean: 19.998
low: 5.204
 Inventory Turnover 1.157
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -16.254 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 5.677 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.505
median: 1.315
BURL: 1.157
mean: 1.143
low: 0.308
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 3.502
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 18.773
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -32.805 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -70.043 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 123.448
median: 24.579
mean: 24.184
BURL: 18.773
low: -49.216
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 8.099
 CapEx To Revenue -0.101
 CapEx To Depreciation -2.769
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 3.7 B
 Net Invested Capital 3.8 B
 Invested Capital 3.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.6 B
 Net Working Capital 352.7 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.347
 Current Ratio 1.164
Current Ratio QoQ -5.548 %
Current Ratio YoY 9.909 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.367
mean: 1.215
BURL: 1.164
median: 1.139
low: 0.727
 Quick Ratio 0.493
Quick Ratio QoQ -24.047 %
Quick Ratio YoY 27.44 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.391
median: 0.526
mean: 0.5
BURL: 0.493
low: 0.068
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 22.26
 Cost Of Debt 0.223 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 9.649
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -58.774 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 2.604 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 245.657
mean: 58.647
median: 50.468
BURL: 9.649
low: -58.921
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.051
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 46.0
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -1.43 %
 Revenue Growth -21.685 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -162.731 %
Revenue Growth YoY -8.072 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 13.262 %
mean: -13.804 %
median: -17.784 %
BURL: -21.685 %
low: -54.332 %
 Earnings Growth -58.896 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -130.824 %
Earnings Growth YoY -2.953 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 59.259 %
mean: -13.178 %
median: -16.783 %
BURL: -58.896 %
low: -360.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 44.169 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.002 %
Gross Margin YoY 0.643 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 68.334 %
BURL: 44.169 %
mean: 34.827 %
median: 31.278 %
low: 18.156 %
 EBIT Margin 5.572 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -53.443 %
EBIT Margin YoY -6.164 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 20.591 %
median: 12.141 %
mean: 11.269 %
BURL: 5.572 %
low: -21.913 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 5.87 %
Return On Sales QoQ -47.952 %
Return On Sales YoY -1.145 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 20.591 %
median: 11.771 %
mean: 11.051 %
BURL: 5.87 %
low: -21.913 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -228.20 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -1.16 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -129.912 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -59.722 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 11.783 %
mean: 0.463 %
median: 0.45 %
BURL: -1.16 %
low: -22.396 %
 Free Cash Growth -131.674 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -82.145 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -61.082 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 137.209 %
mean: -73.47 %
median: -83.005 %
BURL: -131.674 %
low: -241.787 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -1.989
 Cash Flow Margin 3.825 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.952
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.165 %
Return On Assets QoQ -63.376 %
Return On Assets YoY 0.086 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.557 %
median: 3.704 %
mean: 3.092 %
BURL: 1.165 %
low: -2.73 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.087 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.062
Return On Equity QoQ -63.619 %
Return On Equity YoY -16.213 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.355
median: 0.103
mean: 0.063
BURL: 0.062
low: -0.241
 DuPont ROE 6.298 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.41 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -59.093 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -9.236 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 22.552 %
median: 9.782 %
mean: 8.175 %
BURL: 3.41 %
low: -6.248 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term bias favors consolidation with downside pressure. Bearish MACD and peak-and-reversal signals across short-term EMAs, combined with a positive MRO and an over-valued WMDST assessment, increase the probability of mean reversion toward structural support near $315. Super-trend support and the 50-day average offer reference levels for stops on momentum fade, while elevated leverage and negative free cash flow heighten downside risk if same-store sales momentum slows. Monitor whether DI+ stabilizes and MACD recovers above the signal line; absent that recovery, expect limited upside follow-through over the next six weeks.

About Burlington Stores, Inc.

Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE:BURL) delivers a diverse selection of branded merchandise at competitive prices, appealing to a wide range of customers. Headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey, the company offers an extensive array of women’s, men’s, and youth apparel. Beyond clothing, Burlington Stores provides a broad assortment of footwear, accessories, toys, gifts, and coats. Customers can also find a variety of baby essentials, home décor, and beauty products, making Burlington a comprehensive shopping destination. The company operates under the Burlington Stores and Cohoes Fashions brand names, extending its reach to locations including Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. Burlington Stores maintains a strong commitment to offering high-quality products at exceptional value, ensuring its status as a reliable retail choice. By staying attuned to fashion trends and consumer preferences, Burlington continues to attract shoppers who value both style and affordability.



© 2026 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.