Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) Raises Guidance And Signals Near-Term Upside

Momentum around Dollar Tree’s strategic reset contrasts with near-term valuation friction; operational gains point to continued margin recovery while technicals favor a short-window bullish bias.

Recent News

On May 28, 2026 Dollar Tree issued a first-quarter update that emphasized multi-price conversions, expanded store openings, and a sizeable share‑repurchase program while updating its fiscal outlook; coverage noted management’s confidence amid steady demand and tariff developments. On April 13, 2026 outlets highlighted the company’s decision to accelerate net-new store plans and the broader multi‑price rollout as a structural response to cost pressure. Additional investor‑meeting and transcript summaries through mid‑June reiterated priorities on assortment, cost discipline, and capital returns.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 36.06 signals a strong market trend; strength, not direction, characterizes the current price action and supports a persistent directional move into the near term.

DI+ reads 30.77 with a dip‑and‑reversal pattern, and DI‑ sits at 13.83 with a peak‑and‑reversal; both directional indicators align with a bullish directional push, reinforcing the ADX‑measured trend strength.

MACD stands at 3.62 with the signal line at 3.07 and shows a dip‑and‑reversal that crossed above the signal line—this crossover confirms bullish momentum and suggests continuation of upward pressure while the crossover holds.

Price sits above the 12‑day EMA ($113.13), 26‑day EMA ($109.23), 50‑day average ($102.65), and 200‑day average ($109.63); the 12‑day EMA itself shows a dip‑and‑reversal, reinforcing a constructive short‑term regime versus medium‑term averages. Ichimoku components place price above the cloud (SenkouB $109.14), supporting trend bias.

MRO at 38.77 (positive with a dip‑and‑reversal) indicates price currently trades above the modeled target, implying pullback risk if momentum stalls; treat that as a mean‑reversion pressure layered against the bullish directional signals.

RSI at 56.16 with a dip‑and‑reversal signals modest bullish momentum without overbought extremes, consistent with room for additional appreciation before technical exhaustion.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: EBIT registers at $478,700,000 and EBIT margin equals 9.62%. That margin sits slightly above the industry peer mean (9.28%) and well above the peer median (5.919%), reflecting recent margin expansion despite a quarter‑to‑quarter contraction: EBIT margin QoQ declined -24.50% while EBIT margin YoY rose 0.14%.

Earnings: Reported EPS came in at $1.74 versus an estimate of $1.54, producing an EPS surprise of approximately 13.0%. Forward EPS stands at $1.91 with forward P/E near 57.72x; the trailing P/E at 58.85x remains below the industry peer mean P/E (84.00x), indicating a valuation gap even with elevated multiples.

Valuation multiples: Price‑to‑book equals 5.65x, below the industry peer mean of 6.57x but above the peer median of 3.34x. Price‑to‑sales reads 3.98x and the enterprise multiple sits at 40.25x (near the lower half of the peer range). Free cash flow equals $391.1M with a free cash flow yield of 1.98%, which registers above the peer mean yield in the provided comparison set.

Growth and efficiency: Total revenue equals $4,975,800,000 with reported revenue growth at -8.71% (year‑over‑year). Asset turnover stands at 0.3647, roughly in line with the peer mean (0.3843). Operating cash flow reached $644.0M and free cash conversion shows cash flow to earnings of 168% (1.676x), supporting internal funding for capex and buybacks.

Balance sheet and leverage: Cash and short‑term investments total $1,007,300,000 while total debt equals $7,593,300,000 and net debt comes to $1,925,300,000. Debt‑to‑equity sits at 2.17x and debt‑to‑EBITDA equals 11.58x; interest coverage remains robust at 29.37x, indicating ample earnings cushion versus interest expense even as leverage ratios exceed some peer medians.

Operational metrics: Inventory stands at $2,470,800,000 with days inventory outstanding near 68.3 and a cash conversion cycle of 25.76 days. Management reported conversion of hundreds of stores to a multi‑price format and planned store growth, which links directly to the observed margin expansion and cash generation.

Valuation view: The current valuation as determined by WMDST labels the stock under‑valued; upside catalysts include margin resiliency from the multi‑price rollout, repurchase activity, and continued cash flow generation, while elevated leverage metrics and MRO‑implied overextension create near‑term reversion risk.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-04-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-27
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 760.7 M
 Operating Cash Flow 644.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -252.90 M
 Change In Working Capital -24.60 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 290.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 1.1 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 5.0 B
 Forward Revenue 1.3 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 3.1 B
 Depreciation 177.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 177.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 4.5 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.8 B
 EBITDA 655.7 M
 EBIT 478.7 M
 Operating Income 473.3 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 16.3 M
 Net Interest Income -16.30 M
 Income Before Tax 462.4 M
 Tax Provision 115.1 M
 Tax Rate 24.892 %
 Net Income 347.3 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 347.3 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.54
 EPS Actual 1.74
 EPS Difference 0.20
 EPS Surprise 12.987 %
 Forward EPS 1.91
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 13.8 B
 Intangible Assets 423.0 M
 Net Tangible Assets 3.1 B
 Total Current Assets 3.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.0 B
 Cash 1.0 B
 Net Receivables
 Inventory 2.5 B
 Long-Term Investments 194.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.6 B
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 3.2 B
 Net Debt 1.9 B
 Total Debt 7.6 B
 Total Liabilities 10.3 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.5 B
 Retained Earnings 3.6 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 18.13
 Shares Outstanding 193.393 M
 Revenue Per-Share 25.73
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 19.8 B
 Enterprise Value 26.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 40.246
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 14.665 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 0.234 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 70.906
mean: 53.991
median: 44.501
DLTR: 40.246
low: 35.024
 EV/R 5.304
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.942
 Asset To Liability 1.34
 Debt To Capital 0.684
 Debt To Assets 0.549
Debt To Assets QoQ 4.836 %
Debt To Assets YoY 27.059 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA DLTR: 0.549
high: 0.498
mean: 0.35
median: 0.325
low: 0.304
 Debt To Equity 2.165
Debt To Equity QoQ 15.228 %
Debt To Equity YoY 6.92 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA DLTR: 2.165
high: 1.786
median: 1.149
mean: 1.066
low: 0.749
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 5.647
Price To Book QoQ -11.75 %
Price To Book YoY 29.196 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 10.901
mean: 6.574
DLTR: 5.647
median: 3.345
low: 0.398
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 58.85
Price To Earnings QoQ 24.473 %
Price To Earnings YoY -8.695 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 105.986
mean: 84.0
median: 70.603
DLTR: 58.85
low: -109.011
 PE/G Ratio -1.837
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.98
Price To Sales QoQ -9.709 %
Price To Sales YoY 8.196 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 11.435
mean: 6.629
DLTR: 3.98
median: 2.412
low: 0.506
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 57.723
Forward PE/G -1.802
Forward P/S 14.978
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.568
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.365
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -9.273 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 45.15 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.433
median: 0.386
mean: 0.384
DLTR: 0.365
low: 0.239
 Receivables Turnover
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Inventory Turnover 1.265
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.155 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 13.832 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.509
median: 1.467
mean: 1.387
DLTR: 1.265
low: 0.639
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 25.757
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -19.962 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 44.239
DLTR: 25.757
mean: 17.198
low: 8.351
median: 8.351
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 9.681
 CapEx To Revenue -0.051
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.429
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 6.4 B
 Net Invested Capital 6.4 B
 Invested Capital 6.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 3.1 B
 Net Working Capital 514.0 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.316
 Current Ratio 1.161
Current Ratio QoQ 8.807 %
Current Ratio YoY 11.279 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.098
median: 1.482
mean: 1.318
DLTR: 1.161
low: 0.932
 Quick Ratio 0.386
Quick Ratio QoQ 30.904 %
Quick Ratio YoY -46.115 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.271
mean: 0.631
DLTR: 0.386
median: 0.306
low: 0.253
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 11.58
 Cost Of Debt 0.167 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 29.368
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -23.472 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 49.541 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 111.165
mean: 55.382
DLTR: 29.368
median: 13.517
low: 0.73
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.183
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 42.584
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.656 %
 Revenue Growth -8.713 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -159.163 %
Revenue Growth YoY -95.48 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: -1.139 %
DLTR: -8.713 %
median: -9.419 %
mean: -11.955 %
low: -38.778 %
 Earnings Growth -32.031 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -128.709 %
Earnings Growth YoY -20.487 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 3.627 %
median: 1.0 %
mean: -13.755 %
DLTR: -32.031 %
low: -112.15 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 36.874 %
Gross Margin QoQ -5.869 %
Gross Margin YoY 3.518 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 43.101 %
DLTR: 36.874 %
mean: 30.431 %
median: 29.613 %
low: 29.014 %
 EBIT Margin 9.621 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -24.5 %
EBIT Margin YoY 0.135 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 14.06 %
DLTR: 9.621 %
mean: 9.284 %
median: 5.919 %
low: 1.452 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 9.512 %
Return On Sales QoQ -25.367 %
Return On Sales YoY -0.999 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 13.377 %
DLTR: 9.512 %
mean: 8.976 %
median: 5.919 %
low: 1.452 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 391.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.975 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -51.005 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 43.95 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA DLTR: 1.975 %
high: 1.562 %
median: 0.912 %
mean: 0.431 %
low: -9.867 %
 Free Cash Growth -59.618 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -90.538 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -25.595 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: -31.902 %
median: -37.354 %
DLTR: -59.618 %
mean: -62.942 %
low: -123.032 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.126
 Cash Flow Margin 11.697 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.676
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 2.545 %
Return On Assets QoQ -31.806 %
Return On Assets YoY 36.902 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.179 %
mean: 2.613 %
DLTR: 2.545 %
median: 1.418 %
low: -0.106 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 4.499 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.099
Return On Equity QoQ -26.525 %
Return On Equity YoY 12.611 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.103
DLTR: 0.099
mean: 0.071
median: 0.05
low: -0.003
 DuPont ROE 9.565 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.583 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -34.256 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 23.956 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.956 %
mean: 5.638 %
DLTR: 5.583 %
median: 3.573 %
low: 0.7 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technicals favor a bullish near‑term bias: directional indicators, MACD crossover, and price above major EMAs suggest further appreciation pressure over the next six weeks, but the positive MRO highlights an elevated probability of pullback if momentum weakens. Key study points for swing traders: monitor MACD consistency above its signal line, whether ADX maintains trend strength above the mid‑20s threshold, and any shifts in daily volume relative to the 10‑ and 50‑day averages. News flow to track includes store‑opening cadence, share‑repurchase execution, and guidance updates that could alter both momentum and the short risk profile.

About Dollar Tree, Inc.

Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) develops a significant presence in the discount retail industry, with its headquarters in Chesapeake, Virginia. The company manages two main segments: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. Dollar Tree stores implement a fixed pricing strategy, offering a diverse selection of products for $1.25. Customers discover a variety of items, including consumables such as food, health and personal care products, and household essentials, alongside seasonal and specialty goods like party supplies and arts and crafts. Family Dollar expands the product range by offering a comprehensive selection of general merchandise. This includes consumables, home products, apparel, and electronics, meeting a broad spectrum of consumer demands. Shoppers find everything from groceries to fashion accessories in one convenient location. Both segments emphasize value and convenience, establishing Dollar Tree, Inc. as a preferred choice for budget-minded consumers in the United States and Canada. Dollar Tree, Inc. consistently grows its market presence, managing thousands of stores and distribution centers. The company remains committed to providing essential products at affordable prices, serving communities with a focus on quality and accessibility.



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