Emcor Group, Inc. (NYSE:EME) Poised To Retreat After Short-Term Momentum Fades

EMCOR exhibits operational gains and a solid cash position alongside stretched market multiples; WMDST’s current valuation flags the stock as over-valued near present levels. The next several weeks should favor price consolidation unless corporate cash flow normalizes or multiples compress.

Recent News

On June 4, 2026 a director received a 230-share restricted stock unit award (reported in a Form 4 filing). On May 18, 2026 EMCOR announced participation in upcoming investor events. On April 2, 2026 the Board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per share payable April 30, 2026.

Technical Analysis

ADX stands at 22.68, indicating an emerging directional trend; the directional index profile shows DI+ increasing, which signals a bullish shift in directional momentum even while DI+ remains below DI-. This suggests the market may be transitioning from range behavior toward a trend-building phase.

MACD reads -$8.83 with a dip-and-reversal pattern and the signal line at -$6.48; the dip-and-reversal constitutes bullish momentum development, though the MACD remains negative and below the signal line, implying momentum improvement from a negative base rather than a fully established uptrend.

MRO sits at 3.62 (positive), indicating price sits modestly above the WMDST target and therefore carries incremental downside pressure until cash-flow or valuation signals shift the target higher. The modest absolute value points to limited immediate pressure rather than large-scale reversion risk.

RSI at 47.98 and rising indicates strengthening buying activity from lower momentum levels without overbought readings; this supports potential near-term upside but does not confirm sustained expansion of buyers’ control.

Price closed at $834.77, trading above the 20-day average ($826.85) and the 12-day EMA ($829.88, which has shown a dip-and-reversal), but below the 50-day average ($852.97) and the 26-day EMA ($840.35). The positioning — above short-term averages yet beneath intermediate resistance — implies relief-rally dynamics with clear caps near the 50-day average and the SuperTrend upper at $870.49. Bollinger bands place the one-standard-deviation upper band at $846.85 and the lower at $806.84, framing $806–$847 as the immediate intraday range to monitor in the coming weeks.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: Operating (EBIT) margin stands at 8.726%, up 5.872 percentage points year-over-year but down 33.698% quarter-over-quarter. EMCOR’s EBIT margin remains below the industry peer mean of 16.636% and below the industry peer median of 16.903%, indicating lower margin conversion versus typical peers. Return on equity equals 7.901% while return on assets equals 3.25%, both reflecting modest returns on capital.

Growth: Total revenue registered $4,628,233,000. Reported revenue growth measures 2.55% (year-over-period), with revenue YoY at -1.20% and a QoQ change of -48.14%. Earnings per share came in at $6.84 versus consensus $5.90, an EPS beat of $0.94 or +15.93%. Reported earnings growth metrics show contraction on some horizons (earningsGrowth -4.87%; earningsGrowth YoY -70.98%), highlighting volatility in quarter-to-quarter performance.

Cash flow & liquidity: Operating cash flow equals $558,000 compared with net income of $305,484,000, and free cash flow registers negative $28,154,000. The cash conversion signals weaker cash realization in the quarter despite positive net income. Cash and short-term investments total $916,420,000 and the cash conversion ratio reads 3.694, but cash flow margin sits at -0.715% and free-cash-flow yield appears negative, indicating cash generation lag relative to accounting earnings in this period.

Balance sheet & leverage: Total debt equals $510,418,000 and debt to EBITDA equals 1.12x, while the interest coverage ratio stands at 48.59x — a strong coverage metric that limits refinancing pressure. Current ratio equals 1.26 and quick ratio 1.23, both below the industry peer mean current ratio of 1.90488 but within reasonable working-capital bands for construction and engineering operations.

Capital efficiency: Asset turnover reads 0.492 (slightly above the industry peer mean of 0.219), indicating relatively efficient revenue generation from assets. Cash conversion cycle about 60 days aligns with project receivable and payables timing in the sector; days sales outstanding at 86.66 and days payables at 29.94 underline working-capital intensity tied to receivables timing.

Valuation metrics: Trailing P/E equals 111.98 and forward P/E about 88.37, P/S equals 7.35, and P/B sits at 8.80. WMDST values the stock as over-valued at current multiples, reflecting stretched expectations relative to earnings and cash-generation in the most recent quarter. The EPS beat supports the near-term narrative of better-than-expected profitability, but negative free cash flow for the quarter and the margin gap to peers weigh on the valuation case.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-29
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 1.1 B
 Operating Cash Flow 558.0 K
 Capital Expenditures -28.71 M
 Change In Working Capital -354.84 M
 Dividends Paid -17.81 M
 Cash Flow Delta -195.55 M
 End Period Cash Flow 916.4 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 4.6 B
 Forward Revenue 1.4 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 3.8 B
 Depreciation 18.4 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 52.6 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 4.2 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 864.0 M
 EBITDA 456.4 M
 EBIT 403.8 M
 Operating Income 403.8 M
 Interest Income 6.2 M
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income 6.2 M
 Income Before Tax 410.1 M
 Tax Provision 104.6 M
 Tax Rate 25.5 %
 Net Income 305.5 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 305.5 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 5.90
 EPS Actual 6.84
 EPS Difference 0.94
 EPS Surprise 15.932 %
 Forward EPS 8.17
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 9.5 B
 Intangible Assets 2.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.3 B
 Total Current Assets 6.1 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 916.4 M
 Cash 916.4 M
 Net Receivables 4.5 B
 Inventory 130.2 M
 Long-Term Investments 166.5 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.1 B
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 4.8 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 510.4 M
 Total Liabilities 5.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.9 B
 Retained Earnings 6.3 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 87.01
 Shares Outstanding 44.440 M
 Revenue Per-Share 104.15
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 34.0 B
 Enterprise Value 33.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple 73.687
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 53.539 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 46.039 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 228.904
median: 85.492
mean: 79.239
EME: 73.687
low: -131.998
 EV/R 7.267
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.459
 Asset To Liability 1.686
 Debt To Capital 0.117
 Debt To Assets 0.054
Debt To Assets QoQ 6.529 %
Debt To Assets YoY -31.766 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.817
mean: 0.35
median: 0.342
EME: 0.054
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 0.132
Debt To Equity QoQ 3.586 %
Debt To Equity YoY -38.728 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.37
mean: 1.155
median: 0.756
EME: 0.132
low: -1.87
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 8.803
Price To Book QoQ 2.509 %
Price To Book YoY 43.151 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 13.43
EME: 8.803
mean: 5.508
median: 5.22
low: -5.69
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 111.979
Price To Earnings QoQ 13.608 %
Price To Earnings YoY 46.303 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 348.684
mean: 118.64
median: 113.584
EME: 111.979
low: -225.526
 PE/G Ratio -23.003
 Price To Sales (P/S) 7.354
Price To Sales QoQ 5.199 %
Price To Sales YoY 56.785 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 42.542
median: 15.023
mean: 14.854
EME: 7.354
low: 0.198
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 88.369
Forward PE/G -18.153
Forward P/S 24.82
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -12.55
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.492
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.183 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 0.549 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.603
EME: 0.492
mean: 0.219
median: 0.179
low: 0.004
 Receivables Turnover 1.053
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.643 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 0.542 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.62
median: 1.587
mean: 1.472
EME: 1.053
low: 0.166
 Inventory Turnover 29.356
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -6.12 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -11.41 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA EME: 29.356
high: 5.175
mean: 1.189
median: 0.95
low: 0.087
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 86.663
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 59.957
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 4.131 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -0.153 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 346.886
mean: 108.84
median: 99.582
EME: 59.957
low: -117.442
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 3.694
 CapEx To Revenue -0.006
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.564
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 3.9 B
 Net Invested Capital 3.9 B
 Invested Capital 3.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.3 B
 Net Working Capital 1.3 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.19
 Current Ratio 1.26
Current Ratio QoQ 3.232 %
Current Ratio YoY 8.319 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 7.187
mean: 1.905
median: 1.463
EME: 1.26
low: 0.215
 Quick Ratio 1.233
Quick Ratio QoQ 3.214 %
Quick Ratio YoY 8.069 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 5.249
mean: 1.317
EME: 1.233
median: 1.103
low: 0.242
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 1.118
 Cost Of Debt 1.265 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 48.586
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -32.01 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 26.694 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 62.0
EME: 48.586
mean: 14.705
median: 12.303
low: -48.0
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.007
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 29.936
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 17.152
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.058
 Dividend Rate 0.40
 Dividend Yield 0.001
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.332 %
 Revenue Growth 2.551 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -48.14 %
Revenue Growth YoY -1.201 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 43.356 %
EME: 2.551 %
median: -2.898 %
mean: -3.321 %
low: -46.572 %
 Earnings Growth -4.868 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -151.584 %
Earnings Growth YoY -70.975 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 133.333 %
median: 6.797 %
mean: -0.938 %
EME: -4.868 %
low: -155.556 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 18.667 %
Gross Margin QoQ -5.469 %
Gross Margin YoY -0.112 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 69.384 %
mean: 33.942 %
median: 33.098 %
EME: 18.667 %
low: 0.355 %
 EBIT Margin 8.726 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -33.698 %
EBIT Margin YoY 5.872 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 35.045 %
median: 16.903 %
mean: 16.636 %
EME: 8.726 %
low: -56.387 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 8.726 %
Return On Sales QoQ -8.176 %
Return On Sales YoY 5.872 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 27.185 %
median: 17.01 %
mean: 15.897 %
EME: 8.726 %
low: -55.054 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -28.15 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.083 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -105.317 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -118.282 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 9.759 %
median: 0.486 %
mean: 0.332 %
EME: -0.083 %
low: -11.566 %
 Free Cash Growth -105.717 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -1187.288 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 29.278 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 429.548 %
mean: -53.241 %
median: -59.95 %
EME: -105.717 %
low: -568.477 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.092
 Cash Flow Margin -0.715 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.108
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 3.25 %
Return On Assets QoQ -32.948 %
Return On Assets YoY 6.662 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.622 %
EME: 3.25 %
median: 2.473 %
mean: 2.358 %
low: -10.831 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 8.617 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.079
Return On Equity QoQ -33.207 %
Return On Equity YoY -3.162 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.238
EME: 0.079
mean: 0.068
median: 0.059
low: -0.207
 DuPont ROE 8.102 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 7.781 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -36.012 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 5.277 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 10.051 %
EME: 7.781 %
median: 3.676 %
mean: 3.519 %
low: -9.21 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term technical signals favor limited upside extension rather than a breakout. Emerging ADX readings and DI+ improvement support a continuation of the short-term recovery, and MACD’s dip-and-reversal signals improving momentum from oversold levels. However, the small positive MRO and WMDST’s over-valued determination indicate that upside faces valuation-based resistance; expect price to test intermediate caps (50-day average ~$853 and SuperTrend upper ~$870) while failing to clear those levels would likely trigger consolidation toward the Bollinger lower near $806 and support near the 20-day average around $827.

Operationally, watch cash flow normalization and quarterly cash realization as the primary fundamental trigger that could justify multiple expansion; absent improved cash conversion, valuation pressure should limit sustained advances. Momentum indicators suggest a window for short-lived rallies but not an unconstrained advance — positioning that emphasizes monitoring technical resistance and cash-flow headlines rather than relying on expanding multiples.

About EMCOR Group, Inc.

EMCOR Group, Inc. (NYSE:EME) delivers comprehensive construction and facilities services with a strong presence in the United States and the United Kingdom. Headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut, EMCOR designs and integrates solutions across the entire lifecycle of building and industrial projects. The company focuses on power systems, energy efficiency, and complex mechanical and electrical systems, providing clients with a wide array of services from design and installation to maintenance. EMCOR holds expertise in HVAC, refrigeration, and geothermal solutions, along with fire protection, plumbing, and high-purity piping systems. The company also tackles infrastructure projects, offering services in roadway and transit lighting, traffic control systems, and fiber optic installations. In the realm of facilities management, EMCOR provides site-based operations, energy retrofits, and comprehensive maintenance services. Their offerings include technical consulting, diagnostic services, and vendor management, ensuring optimal building performance. With a commitment to quality and operational excellence, EMCOR Group, Inc. delivers exceptional value to its diverse clientele, continually enhancing the built environment through innovative and sustainable solutions.



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