Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) Projects Near-Term Strength As AI Partnerships Accelerate

Elastic shows signs of tactical strength driven by expanding AI integrations and healthy cash generation, while technical indicators signal a contested short-term setup. Fundamentals reveal mixed margin pressure offset by meaningful cash and a favorable free cash flow profile.

Recent News

On April 21, 2026 Elastic announced receipt of the 2026 Google Cloud Partner of the Year Award in the Marketplace category for Data Management & AI; the company highlighted a new AI agent for Gemini Enterprise on the Google Cloud Agent Marketplace. On April 23, 2026 Elastic described a deeper integration with Google Distributed Cloud to deliver its embedded security layer in air‑gapped environments.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show a strong trend (ADX 31.63) with a bearish directional bias: the positive directional index recently peaked then reversed while the negative directional index showed a dip-and-reverse, both pointing toward downside pressure on momentum. This pattern elevates short-term directional risk despite trend strength.

MACD currently sits above its signal line (MACD 3.02 vs signal 2.81), which constitutes a bullish crossover, but the MACD has peaked then reversed, signaling that bullish momentum has faded and momentum may shift lower in the near term.

MRO reads positive at 10.5 and rising, indicating price currently sits above the model target and places a corrective impulse on the price — rising MRO suggests potential for mean reversion pressure to build.

RSI at 59.1 peaked then reversed, showing previous buying pressure easing while remaining below overbought extremes; that peak-and-reversal argues for consolidation or pullback risk before any resumption of advance.

Price sits near shorter-term averages: the 20‑day average at $60.72 versus the close at $60.78, the 12‑day EMA recently peaked then reversed at $60.94, and the 50‑day average at $52.29 remains well below price—these layers imply near-term support around the 20‑day and stronger support near the 50‑day. The 200‑day average at $68.93 stays above price, signaling the longer-term trend retains downward pressure relative to multi‑month levels. The super trend lower at $57.97 provides a defined near-term support floor.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue: total revenue reached $450,681,000 with revenue growth effectively flat at 0.18% year‑over‑year and a steep sequential decline quarter‑to‑quarter (-97.15%), indicating recent top‑line softness versus prior period activity.

Profitability: operating margin remained negative at -3.64% and EBIT margin registered -0.78%. Both margins sit below the industry peer mean and industry peer median for EBIT margin (industry peer mean 7.387%, industry peer median 3.261%), placing Elastic below typical peer profitability levels despite recent improvements in other cash metrics. EBIT margin quarter‑over‑quarter fell by roughly 128.29% and year‑over‑year fell about 365.65% on a percentage basis, reflecting volatile margin dynamics across reported periods.

Earnings & cash: GAAP EPS came in at $0.61 versus estimate $0.56, an EPS surprise of 8.93%. Net income registered at $435,900,000 while operating income stayed negative at -$16,411,000; the swing to net profitability reflects a tax benefit (tax provision -$445,665,000) rather than core operating improvement. Operating cash flow reached $311,459,000 and free cash flow $149,815,000, yielding a free cash flow yield of 2.69%, above the industry peer mean of 1.43%.

Balance sheet and liquidity: cash and short‑term investments total $1,370,262,000 with a cash ratio of 1.14 and current ratio 1.68 (above the industry peer mean current ratio of 1.26), supporting ongoing investment and working capital needs. Debt to equity at 0.46 remains inside the industry peer range for debt‑to‑equity, while debt to assets at 18.76% sits near the industry peer mean for leverage.

Returns and efficiency: return on equity stands at 34.15%, materially above the industry peer mean of about 1.19%, reflecting the distortion between net income and equity; return on assets at 15.59% also sits above typical peers. Asset turnover remains low at 0.161, slightly above the industry peer mean of 0.113, indicating limited revenue per asset dollar.

Valuation: WMDST values the stock as under‑valued. Market multiples show a trailing PE near 87.25 and forward PE near 56.51; price‑to‑book at 4.37 sits below the industry peer mean and industry peer median for P/B (industry peer mean 6.23868, median 5.96235). The enterprise‑to‑revenue ratio (EVR) stands at 10.64. The mixed signals — high trailing multiples versus robust cash balances and above‑peer free cash flow yield — support WMDST’s under‑valued conclusion when measured against the firm’s cash generation profile and partner momentum.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-04-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-27
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 740.9 M
 Operating Cash Flow 311.5 M
 Capital Expenditures -2.90 M
 Change In Working Capital 64.6 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 29.6 M
 End Period Cash Flow 770.5 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 450.7 M
 Forward Revenue 26.1 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 111.1 M
 Depreciation 3.2 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 3.2 M
 Research and Development 120.3 M
 Total Operating Expenses 467.1 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 339.6 M
 EBITDA -303.00 K
 EBIT -3.52 M
 Operating Income -16.41 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 6.2 M
 Net Interest Income -6.25 M
 Income Before Tax -9.77 M
 Tax Provision -445.67 M
 Tax Rate 40.0 %
 Net Income 435.9 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 435.9 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.56
 EPS Actual 0.61
 EPS Difference 0.05
 EPS Surprise 8.929 %
 Forward EPS 0.96
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 3.2 B
 Intangible Assets 369.5 M
 Net Tangible Assets 907.0 M
 Total Current Assets 2.0 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.4 B
 Cash 768.7 M
 Net Receivables 464.4 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 14.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 8.6 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 1.2 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 591.6 M
 Total Liabilities 1.9 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.3 B
 Retained Earnings -731.96 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 12.19
 Shares Outstanding 104.751 M
 Revenue Per-Share 4.30
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 5.6 B
 Enterprise Value 4.8 B
 Enterprise Multiple -15829.331
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -3899.388 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -718.51 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 1151.207
mean: 458.125
median: 161.436
low: -246.135
ESTC: -15829.331
 EV/R 10.642
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.47
 Asset To Liability 1.68
 Debt To Capital 0.317
 Debt To Assets 0.188
Debt To Assets QoQ -22.671 %
Debt To Assets YoY -18.233 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.447
median: 0.228
ESTC: 0.188
mean: 0.185
low: 0.005
 Debt To Equity 0.463
Debt To Equity QoQ -38.046 %
Debt To Equity YoY -27.782 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.906
mean: 0.529
ESTC: 0.463
median: 0.356
low: 0.006
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 4.367
Price To Book QoQ -52.35 %
Price To Book YoY -57.765 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 16.13
mean: 6.239
median: 5.962
ESTC: 4.367
low: -10.151
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 87.248
Price To Earnings QoQ -91.227 %
Price To Earnings YoY -54.865 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 475.758
mean: 175.709
median: 145.738
ESTC: 87.248
low: -188.036
 PE/G Ratio 0.113
 Price To Sales (P/S) 12.37
Price To Sales QoQ -23.239 %
Price To Sales YoY -49.887 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 54.952
median: 37.893
mean: 33.561
ESTC: 12.37
low: 4.65
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 56.507
Forward PE/G 0.073
Forward P/S 213.987
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -721.742
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.161
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -11.941 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 2.161 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.21
ESTC: 0.161
mean: 0.113
median: 0.102
low: 0.048
 Receivables Turnover 1.097
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -24.624 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -8.79 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.745
mean: 1.423
median: 1.209
ESTC: 1.097
low: 0.819
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 83.197
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.551
 CapEx To Revenue -0.006
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.9
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.8 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.8 B
 Invested Capital 1.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets 907.0 M
 Net Working Capital 818.3 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.137
 Current Ratio 1.679
Current Ratio QoQ -7.637 %
Current Ratio YoY -12.324 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 4.221
ESTC: 1.679
mean: 1.261
median: 1.053
low: 0.665
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -1952.353
 Cost Of Debt 0.635 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -0.564
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -128.384 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -388.445 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 54.688
median: 7.387
mean: 7.018
ESTC: -0.564
low: -7.182
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.258
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 16.237
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 29.292 %
 Revenue Growth 0.178 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -97.145 %
Revenue Growth YoY -89.29 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 15.729 %
mean: 4.284 %
median: 4.257 %
ESTC: 0.178 %
low: -13.038 %
 Earnings Growth 771.429 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -773.249 %
Earnings Growth YoY -3137.481 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA ESTC: 771.429 %
high: 10.345 %
median: -5.556 %
mean: -15.451 %
low: -73.529 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 75.357 %
Gross Margin QoQ -1.289 %
Gross Margin YoY 0.71 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 90.951 %
ESTC: 75.357 %
median: 75.298 %
mean: 74.166 %
low: 63.318 %
 EBIT Margin -0.781 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -128.287 %
EBIT Margin YoY -365.646 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 29.524 %
mean: 7.387 %
median: 3.261 %
ESTC: -0.781 %
low: -21.178 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -3.641 %
Return On Sales QoQ -2777.206 %
Return On Sales YoY -1338.435 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 29.524 %
mean: 5.201 %
median: -2.208 %
ESTC: -3.641 %
low: -23.448 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 149.8 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.687 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 365.685 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 203.616 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.322 %
ESTC: 2.687 %
mean: 1.434 %
median: 0.534 %
low: -0.862 %
 Free Cash Growth 258.401 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 325.492 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -9381.645 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA ESTC: 258.401 %
high: 105.208 %
median: 23.164 %
mean: 22.589 %
low: -134.476 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.344
 Cash Flow Margin 69.109 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.715
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 15.593 %
Return On Assets QoQ 4850.159 %
Return On Assets YoY -2444.812 %
Return On Assets IPRWA ESTC: 15.593 %
high: 4.025 %
mean: 0.565 %
median: 0.248 %
low: -3.342 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -0.181 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.341
Return On Equity QoQ 3384.49 %
Return On Equity YoY -2032.541 %
Return On Equity IPRWA ESTC: 0.341
high: 0.154
mean: 0.012
median: 0.006
low: -0.152
 DuPont ROE 42.166 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -0.114 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -120.841 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -290.0 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 12.019 %
mean: 0.904 %
median: 0.33 %
ESTC: -0.114 %
low: -6.95 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a contested trading range as technical momentum shows signs of rolling over while strong partnership headlines and elevated cash metrics provide fundamental support. Near term, watch for consolidation between roughly $58 and $66 with downside support defined by the super trend near $58 and the 50‑day average near $52 acting as a secondary support zone. Upside momentum requires a sustained MACD recovery and RSI stabilization above the 60 area; failure to reclaim those momentum cues increases the likelihood of retreat toward the 50‑day average. Volatility may remain elevated given the proximity to recent pivot levels and the stock’s 42‑day beta near 1.12.

About Elastic N.V.

Elastic NV (NYSE:ESTC) develops search-powered solutions that transform data into actionable insights. Headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, and founded in 2012, Elastic provides hosted and managed solutions that function seamlessly across hybrid, public, private, and multi-cloud environments. The company’s core offering, the Elastic Stack, comprises a suite of software products that enable the ingestion, storage, search, analysis, and visualization of data from diverse sources. The Elastic Stack features Elasticsearch, a versatile search engine and data store that handles textual, numerical, geospatial, and unstructured data. Kibana offers an intuitive interface for managing and configuring the Elastic Stack, while the Elasticsearch Relevance Engine enhances search capabilities with AI algorithms. Additional components like Elastic Agent, Logstash, and Beats extend the platform’s data processing and protection functionalities. Elastic’s solutions address a variety of use cases, including building advanced search applications, monitoring application performance, analyzing logs and metrics, and enhancing security measures. By empowering organizations to effectively utilize their data, Elastic supports innovation and maintains a global presence in the technology sector.



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