Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) Strengthens Earnings Momentum; Valuation Suggests Near-Term Upside

Centene shows renewed earnings momentum and strong free-cash generation that underpin an undervalued WMDST valuation, while near-term technicals signal a bullish-but-fragile price environment.

Recent News

On April 28, 2026 Centene reported first-quarter 2026 results, citing stronger-than-expected adjusted EPS and updated commentary on 2026 guidance; earlier on April 6, 2026 the company announced a new executive leadership structure reporting to the CEO; investor materials and press releases in mid‑May and April referenced upcoming investor events and community initiatives tied to affordable housing and local partnerships.

Technical Analysis

ADX stands at 53.7, indicating a very strong trend environment that magnifies directional moves but does not specify direction; this strength raises the odds that any breakout or breakdown carries follow‑through and therefore amplifies near‑term price bias relative to the stated valuation.

Directional indicators present a mixed directional signal: DI+ at 37.51 shows a peak-and-reversal pattern, which reads as a bearish change in bullish pressure, while DI− at 10.81 also shows a peak-and-reversal pattern, which reads as a bullish change in bearish pressure. The opposing DI signals produce short-term ambiguity; with ADX elevated, that ambiguity favors whichever side gains momentum first.

MACD sits at 3.69 with the signal line at 3.66 and a documented dip-and-reversal trend; the MACD has crossed above its signal line, which constitutes a bullish momentum signal and supports the possibility of continued upside extension from current levels.

Price sits near the upper Bollinger band (upper ~$64.3–$67.57) at a close of $65.34, above the 20‑day average ($61.04), the 50‑day average ($50.46) and the 200‑day average ($41.04); the 12‑day EMA shows an increasing trend. Those placements create clear technical support in the low $60s and place recent trading near resistance—momentum favors higher levels but leaves limited immediate room before short-term mean reversion risks increase.

MRO reads 5.51 (positive), implying price currently sits above the implied target and carries some pressure toward a decrease; combined with RSI at 68.87 and an RSI peak-and-reversal pattern (bearish), technical momentum indicates a material risk of a short-lived pullback even as MACD momentum supports continuation—net technical posture: bullish bias with vulnerability to a near-term retracement.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and earnings: EBIT equals $2,263,000,000 and EBITDA equals $2,563,000,000, producing an EBIT margin of 4.53%. EBIT margin changed QoQ by −263.87% and improved YoY by 10.24%. Adjusted EPS reported $3.37 versus an estimate of $2.13, a beat of $1.24 or a 58.22% surprise, and management reiterated improved profitability drivers tied to medical-cost management and PDP growth in recent commentary.

Cash flow and valuation metrics: Operating cash flow reached $4,366,000,000 and free cash flow totaled $4,166,000,000, producing a free-cash-flow yield of 21.95%, substantially above the industry peer mean of 2.88% for this metric. WMDST values the stock as under-valued, consistent with an enterprise multiple of 4.53 and a market cap of $18,978,550,016 versus enterprise value of $11,608,550,016.

Capital structure and coverage: Total debt stands at $16,371,000,000 with debt/EBITDA about 6.39x and interest coverage roughly 13.80x, indicating the company retains ample ability to service interest despite leverage measured on an EBITDA basis; debt-to-equity sits near 0.76 and debt-to-assets near 0.20.

Growth and efficiency: Reported revenue equals $49,944,000,000 with gross profit $5,558,000,000 and gross margin 11.13%. Revenue growth quarter-over-quarter measured 5.29% while year‑over‑year revenue growth shows a reported value of −96.91%; asset turnover sits at 0.63, modestly above the industry peer mean of 0.52. Return on equity equals 7.19% and return on invested capital equals 4.39%, both positive and showing YoY improvements noted in the dataset.

Valuation comparisons: Price/earnings sits at 11.45 and price/book at 0.89—both below the industry peer mean values provided—while forward PE runs near 38.69 reflecting lower forward EPS consensus; the large gap between current P/E and forward P/E reflects differing near-term EPS expectations embedded in markets versus reported results. Free cash flow yield materially exceeds the industry peer mean, supporting WMDST’s undervaluation determination.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 18.0 B
 Operating Cash Flow 4.4 B
 Capital Expenditures -200.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 2.5 B
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 3.4 B
 End Period Cash Flow 21.4 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 49.9 B
 Forward Revenue 4.5 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 44.4 B
 Depreciation 134.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 300.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 48.1 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 5.6 B
 EBITDA 2.6 B
 EBIT 2.3 B
 Operating Income 1.9 B
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 164.0 M
 Net Interest Income -164.00 M
 Income Before Tax 2.1 B
 Tax Provision 560.0 M
 Tax Rate 26.7 %
 Net Income 1.5 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 1.5 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 2.13
 EPS Actual 3.37
 EPS Difference 1.24
 EPS Surprise 58.216 %
 Forward EPS 1.11
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 81.2 B
 Intangible Assets 15.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets 6.2 B
 Total Current Assets 45.0 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 23.7 B
 Cash 21.3 B
 Net Receivables 19.4 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 2.3 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 16.8 B
 Short-Term Debt 63.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 40.0 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 16.4 B
 Total Liabilities 59.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 21.4 B
 Retained Earnings 10.2 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 43.57
 Shares Outstanding 493.771 M
 Revenue Per-Share 101.56
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 19.0 B
 Enterprise Value 11.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple 4.529
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -126.166 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -67.7 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 159.017
median: 41.816
mean: 36.158
CNC: 4.529
low: -42.479
 EV/R 0.232
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.788
 Asset To Liability 1.361
 Debt To Capital 0.433
 Debt To Assets 0.202
Debt To Assets QoQ -14.777 %
Debt To Assets YoY -4.176 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.935
mean: 0.36
median: 0.262
CNC: 0.202
low: 0.006
 Debt To Equity 0.764
Debt To Equity QoQ -16.062 %
Debt To Equity YoY 16.425 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 6.239
CNC: 0.764
median: 0.732
mean: -0.104
low: -6.439
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.886
Price To Book QoQ -12.786 %
Price To Book YoY -18.264 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 13.088
mean: 2.183
median: 1.563
CNC: 0.886
low: -0.307
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 11.452
Price To Earnings QoQ -133.072 %
Price To Earnings YoY -45.381 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 167.375
mean: 49.421
median: 38.698
CNC: 11.452
low: -165.821
 PE/G Ratio -0.03
 Price To Sales (P/S) 0.38
Price To Sales QoQ -6.753 %
Price To Sales YoY -41.438 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 11.743
mean: 2.655
median: 1.073
CNC: 0.38
low: 0.026
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 38.694
Forward PE/G -0.101
Forward P/S 4.737
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -600.746
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.633
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.019 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 14.977 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.21
CNC: 0.633
mean: 0.518
median: 0.397
low: 0.013
 Receivables Turnover 2.661
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 10.297 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 20.312 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 9.342
median: 3.671
mean: 3.556
CNC: 2.661
low: 0.052
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 34.285
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 4.878
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 101.8
median: 19.637
mean: 16.515
CNC: 4.878
low: -62.922
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 10.102
 CapEx To Revenue -0.004
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.493
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 37.7 B
 Net Invested Capital 37.8 B
 Invested Capital 37.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets 6.2 B
 Net Working Capital 4.9 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.593
 Current Ratio 1.123
Current Ratio QoQ 2.122 %
Current Ratio YoY 1.067 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.361
CNC: 1.123
mean: 0.991
median: 0.854
low: 0.273
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 6.387
 Cost Of Debt 0.696 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 13.799
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -268.596 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 22.432 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 35.836
CNC: 13.799
mean: 11.729
median: 7.359
low: -1.125
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.093
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 29.407
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 5.77 %
 Revenue Growth 0.44 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 528.571 %
Revenue Growth YoY -96.912 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 21.958 %
CNC: 0.44 %
mean: -2.21 %
median: -4.983 %
low: -9.495 %
 Earnings Growth -383.193 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 13.371 %
Earnings Growth YoY -245.978 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 157.143 %
mean: 25.003 %
median: 1.648 %
low: -200.0 %
CNC: -383.193 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 11.128 %
Gross Margin QoQ 124.31 %
Gross Margin YoY -0.269 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 96.442 %
mean: 25.743 %
median: 15.558 %
CNC: 11.128 %
low: 4.2 %
 EBIT Margin 4.531 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -263.87 %
EBIT Margin YoY 10.243 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 23.127 %
mean: 7.315 %
median: 4.692 %
CNC: 4.531 %
low: -12.88 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 3.726 %
Return On Sales QoQ -250.363 %
Return On Sales YoY -9.343 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 22.401 %
mean: 7.483 %
median: 4.66 %
CNC: 3.726 %
low: -12.88 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 4.2 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 21.951 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 1886.516 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 382.97 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA CNC: 21.951 %
high: 13.5 %
median: 3.132 %
mean: 2.88 %
low: -7.715 %
 Free Cash Growth 1759.821 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -2287.825 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -716.27 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA CNC: 1759.821 %
high: 298.093 %
mean: 17.28 %
median: 2.874 %
low: -455.219 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.703
 Cash Flow Margin 7.456 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.417
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.952 %
Return On Assets QoQ -240.837 %
Return On Assets YoY 26.18 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.991 %
CNC: 1.952 %
median: 1.8 %
mean: 1.712 %
low: -5.482 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 5.502 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.072
Return On Equity QoQ -230.337 %
Return On Equity YoY 53.152 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.27
CNC: 0.072
median: 0.038
mean: -0.029
low: -0.261
 DuPont ROE 7.447 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 4.39 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -267.302 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 40.705 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.871 %
CNC: 4.39 %
mean: 3.545 %
median: 2.946 %
low: -6.018 %

Six-Week Outlook

Price bias: technical momentum (MACD cross and rising short EMAs) supports a near‑term bullish bias, reinforced by Centene’s strong free‑cash‑flow yield and recent EPS beat; however, RSI peak behavior and a positive MRO point to a meaningful risk of a short pullback before trend continuation. Given the very strong ADX, any decisive move above the current upper band area (~$67.5) can accelerate upside toward the higher analyst target bands, while a failure to hold the mid‑$60s—particularly the $60.4 super trend lower—would likely invite a sharper retracement to the low $60s support and the 20‑day average near $61.0.

Near‑term scenarios for swing traders: continuation scenario requires price to hold above $61.0–$62.0 with MACD momentum intact; a retracement scenario would target the super trend lower at $60.42 and the 20‑day average as first supports, with deeper weakness testing the 50‑day average. Watch MACD versus its signal line and RSI behavior for momentum confirmation; monitor any follow‑up company news given the April 28 results and leadership changes that could alter short‑term sentiment.

About Centene Corporation

Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) delivers comprehensive healthcare services, primarily targeting under-insured and uninsured populations across the United States. Established in 1984 and based in St. Louis, Missouri, Centene develops a wide array of health plans through its Medicaid, Medicare, and Commercial segments. The Medicaid segment offers expanded health plans, children’s health insurance programs, and long-term services. In the Medicare segment, Centene addresses the needs of seniors with special needs plans, Medicare supplements, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides marketplace insurance products for individuals and businesses, ensuring extensive access to healthcare services. Centene actively participates in government healthcare contracts, including the TRICARE program for military families, highlighting its dedication to diverse communities. The company also manages clinical healthcare services, pharmacies, and provides dental and speech therapy, promoting a holistic healthcare approach. By collaborating with primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers, Centene aims to deliver personalized, high-quality care to millions of Americans, emphasizing innovation and community well-being.



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