Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ:LI) Posts Delivery Gains; Technicals Signal Near-Term Upside

Li Auto shows accelerating deliveries and short-term bullish momentum, while valuation metrics remain stretched relative to fundamentals. Near-term price bias favors continuation of the recent uptick but broader valuation keeps upside tethered.

Recent News

March 1, 2026 and April 1, 2026 delivery updates showed recovery in retail demand: January deliveries reported roughly 27,668 units, February deliveries about 26,421 units, and March deliveries rose to 41,053 units, indicating sequential acceleration; separate coverage noted a production ramp of the i6 model amid prior supply constraints. These updates came alongside routine corporate releases on retail and service network expansion in China.

Technical Analysis

ADX/DI+/DI-: ADX at 14.48 signals no established trend, but DI+ at 36.05 increasing and DI- at 25.37 decreasing indicate directional strength favoring buyers; that combination implies short-term directional pressure that may support further price gains, even while the broader trend lacks strength.

MACD: MACD sits at 0.23 with the signal line at 0.11 and an increasing MACD_trend; MACD recently crossed above its signal line, a bullish momentum confirmation that supports the near-term upside suggested by the directional indicators.

MRO: MRO reads -17.03 (negative), which means price sits below the modeled target and thus presents upward potential; the negative MRO aligns with the expectation of mean-reversion that could fuel further short-term gains.

RSI: RSI 52.15 and increasing shows mild bullish momentum without overbought conditions, supporting a continuation of the recent rally rather than signaling exhaustion.

Price Structure & Moving Averages: Close at $19.21 sits above the 20-day average ($18.09), the 50-day average ($17.90) and the 12-day EMA ($18.29) — all rising — while remaining below the 200-day average ($21.16). Price trades near the upper Bollinger band (upper 1σ $18.72, upper 2σ $19.35), suggesting momentum with limited short-term volatility. Ichimoku components (Senkou A $17.94, Senkou B $17.52) and the super trend lower support ($17.91) lie below price, providing short-term structural support for swing traders.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings & Per-Share Metrics: Latest reported EPS actual $0.01 versus estimate -$0.02, an EPS beat of $0.03, representing a 150% surprise to the estimate. Forward EPS stands at $0.22 with a forward P/E of 82.18. Current reported P/E equals $1,802.89, well above the industry peer mean of 85.88 and above the industry peer high of 172.68, reflecting extreme valuation relative to peers.

Growth Rates: Reported earnings growth shows -101.61% (earningsGrowth), with quarter-over-quarter earnings down ~36.57% and year-over-year earnings change of -515.83% as reported; revenue growth registers 0% overall with quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year revenue reductions shown as -100% in the provided metrics. Those declines highlight recent compression in core operating momentum relative to prior periods.

Profitability & Cash: Cash flow margin: 0.0% and cash flow to earnings: 0.0% per the data. Invested capital reads negative $80,786,194,000. Cost of debt registers 0.159%, indicating very low borrowing costs on reported debt. Free-cash-flow non-GAAP figures included in the company release show a swing from prior negative to positive in the most recent annual figures, consistent with delivery stabilization reports.

Valuation Multiples & Peer Comparisons: PEG ratio reported at -17.74, below the industry peer low of -2.92 and well beneath the industry peer mean of -1.70 and median of -1.45; forward PEG sits at -0.81. The forward P/E of 82.18 sits below the current trailing P/E but remains elevated versus the industry peer mean (forward peer mean 39.40, median 24.60). WMDST values the stock as over-valued given stretched trailing multiples against constrained growth metrics.

Earnings Calendar: Most recent report dated March 12, 2026; next scheduled report listed for June 11, 2026. The latest operational releases emphasize delivery recovery and production ramping rather than material margin improvement to date.

Valuation Note: The current valuation as determined by WMDST classifies the stock as over-valued, reflecting a combination of inflated multiples, compressed reported growth, and a modest recovery in deliveries that has not yet reconciled with trailing valuation.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-03-12
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-06-11
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INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
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COSTS
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PROFITABILITY
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EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate $ -0.02
 EPS Actual $ 0.01
 EPS Difference $ 0.03
 EPS Surprise 150.0 %
 Forward EPS $ 0.22
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
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LIABILITIES
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EQUITY
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VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
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VALUATION
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CAPITAL STRUCTURE
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PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) —
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Price To Book IPRWA —
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 1802.891
Price To Earnings QoQ -5182.009 %
Price To Earnings YoY 22919.313 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA LI: 1802.891
high: 172.68
mean: 85.881
median: 47.288
low: -128.535
 PE/G Ratio -17.743
 Price To Sales (P/S) —
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FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 82.179
Forward PE/G -0.809
Forward P/S —
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
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ASSET & SALES
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CASH CYCLE
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Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 278.075
mean: 26.075
median: 13.988
low: 13.061
LI: 0
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
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CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital —
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 Invested Capital $ -80.79 B
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LIQUIDITY
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COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA —
 Cost Of Debt 0.159 %
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TIMING / LIQUIDITY
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DIVIDENDS
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PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate —
 Revenue Growth 0.0 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -100.0 %
Revenue Growth YoY -100.0 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 55.306 %
LI: 0.0 %
mean: -9.763 %
median: -11.369 %
low: -17.458 %
 Earnings Growth -101.613 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -36.569 %
Earnings Growth YoY -515.833 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 16.226 %
mean: -50.794 %
median: -71.111 %
LI: -101.613 %
low: -178.71 %
MARGINS
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CASH FLOW
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 Cash Flow Margin 0.0 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.0
VALUE & RETURNS
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Six-Week Outlook

For swing traders: short-term technicals favor further upside continuation as DI+ gains, a bullish MACD crossover, rising short-term EMAs, and RSI just above 50 converge with delivery momentum. Price trades above most short-term averages and near the upper Bollinger band, suggesting momentum-led moves may persist. However, the lack of a strong ADX trend reads as limited directional conviction beyond the short term, and valuation remains highly elevated relative to fundamentals. Expect price action to track delivery and production announcements and intramonth volume spikes; treat fundamental volatility as a cap on sustained breakout scope over a six-week horizon.

About Li Auto Inc.

Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ:LI) designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles in the People’s Republic of China. The company offers a range of multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) that integrate advanced technology and smart features. Li Auto Inc. manages sales and after-sales services, ensuring a seamless customer experience through both online and offline channels. The company also invests in technology development and corporate management, while acquiring manufacturing equipment to enhance production capabilities. Founded in 2015 and headquartered in Beijing, Li Auto Inc. continues to expand its footprint in the energy vehicle market, catering to the growing demand for innovative and environmentally friendly transportation solutions.



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