Recent News
On February 13, 2026 Advance Auto Parts reported fourth-quarter and full‑year 2025 results, announced 2026 guidance (comparable store sales 1.0%–2.0%, adjusted operating income margin 3.8%–4.5%) and declared a $0.25 quarterly dividend on February 10, 2026.
January 24, 2026 coverage highlighted institutional skepticism and an analyst rotation away from lower‑margin retailers, citing concerns about revenue trends and leverage.
Technical Analysis
Directional Indicators: ADX at 18.09 indicates no established trend, but DI+ shows a dip & reversal while DI- shows a peak & reversal; both signals point toward bullish directional pressure but with weak trend strength, supporting a cautious near-term bias against the WMDST over‑valued assessment.
MACD: MACD sits at 0.27 below the signal line at 0.58 with a decreasing MACD_trend, indicating bearish momentum and a lack of confirmation for upside continuation despite directional indicator signals.
MRO: MRO at 24.41 (positive, decreasing) signals the current price sits above the model target and therefore carries downside potential; the declining MRO reduces that excess-pressure slightly but does not remove it.
RSI and Short-Term Momentum: RSI at 52.16 with a peak & reversal trend signals waning upside momentum and aligns with MACD’s bearish tilt, implying limited immediate upside in the absence of new bullish catalysts.
Price vs Moving Averages and Bands: Closing price $51.92 sits below the 200‑day average $52.74, above the 50‑day average $50.13, and near the lower Bollinger 1× band ($50.92), consistent with a consolidation range and the potential for short-lived downside pressure if momentum deteriorates further.
Volatility & Volume: 42‑day beta 1.23 and 52‑week beta 1.09 indicate above‑market sensitivity; volume (~1.58M) tracks the 10‑day average and remains below the 50/200‑day averages, suggesting moves lack unusually strong participation at present.
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability: EBIT $74,000,000 and EBITDA $132,000,000 yield an EBIT margin of 3.75%. That margin sits below the industry peer mean (≈11.72%) and median (≈10.83%) while above the industry peer low (≈‑7.69%), and shows QoQ movement of 101.018% and YoY of ‑109.283% as provided.
Revenue & Earnings: Total revenue $1,973,000,000 with YoY revenue growth reported at ‑3.094% and QoQ at ‑3.39104% (as provided). EPS actual $0.86 versus estimate $0.41 produced a $0.45 beat, an EPS surprise of 109.756% (EPSsurpriseRatio 1.09756), reflecting stronger-than-expected per‑share results for the period.
Cash Flow & Liquidity: Operating cash flow $72,000,000 and free cash flow ‑$21,000,000 produce a free cash flow yield of ‑0.716%. Cash and short‑term investments $3,123,000,000 against total debt $5,224,000,000 result in net debt $289,000,000; current ratio 1.746 and quick ratio 0.873 show adequate near‑term coverage but weak free cash generation.
Leverage & Coverage: Debt to EBITDA 39.58 and interest coverage ratio 1.40 indicate elevated leverage and limited interest buffer; debt to equity 2.3767 and debt to capital 0.70385 quantify a capital structure skewed toward debt, supporting the WMDST valuation of over‑valued given stretched leverage versus cash flow metrics.
Efficiency & Other Metrics: Asset turnover 0.165 (below the industry peer mean ≈0.3156), days inventory outstanding ~290 days and cash conversion cycle ~65 days highlight working capital intensity and inventory carrying requirements that pressure cash flow.
Valuation: WMDST values the stock as over‑valued, consistent with a high PE ratio (56.82), an enterprise multiple of 38.14, negative free cash flow yield, and structural leverage that weaken the near‑term valuation case despite recent margin improvement and an EPS beat.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-12-31 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-13 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-05-15 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 3.2 B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 72.0 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -93.00 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ -23.00 M | |
| Dividends Paid | $ -15.00 M | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ -51.00 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 3.1 B | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 2.0 B | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 4.8 B | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 1.1 B | |
| Depreciation | $ 58.0 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 58.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 1.9 B | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 869.0 M | |
| EBITDA | $ 132.0 M | |
| EBIT | $ 74.0 M | |
| Operating Income | $ 68.0 M | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | $ 53.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -53.00 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 21.0 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ -9.00 M | |
| Tax Rate | 40.0 % | |
| Net Income | $ 6.0 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 30.0 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 0.41 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 0.86 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.45 | |
| EPS Surprise | 109.756 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 0.98 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 11.8 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 1.0 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 1.2 B | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 7.3 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 3.1 B | |
| Cash | $ 3.1 B | |
| Net Receivables | $ 370.0 M | |
| Inventory | $ 3.6 B | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 110.0 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 3.0 B | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 4.2 B | |
| Net Debt | $ 289.0 M | |
| Total Debt | $ 5.2 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 9.6 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 2.2 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ 4.1 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 36.62 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 60.022 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 32.87 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 2.9 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 5.0 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 38.135 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | -26.027 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | -717.829 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 135.997 median: 79.36 mean: 72.656 AAP: 38.135 low: -9.179 |
|
| EV/R | 2.551 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 5.38 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.228 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.704 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.442 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | 1.254 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 29.395 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 1.07 median: 0.513 mean: 0.486 AAP: 0.442 low: 0.13 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 2.377 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | -0.839 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 39.904 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 4.879 AAP: 2.377 mean: 1.555 median: 1.395 low: -2.088 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 1.334 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -13.286 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | 7.247 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 11.1 mean: 5.411 median: 3.522 AAP: 1.334 low: -3.282 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 56.818 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -102.018 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | -247.515 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 190.196 median: 123.637 mean: 102.17 AAP: 56.818 low: -123.055 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | -0.013 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 1.486 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | -10.396 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | 9.901 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 18.42 mean: 9.81 median: 8.143 AAP: 1.486 low: 0.253 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 50.633 | |
| Forward PE/G | -0.012 | |
| Forward P/S | 0.613 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | -30.617 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.165 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | -8.313 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | -3.713 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.64 mean: 0.316 median: 0.269 AAP: 0.165 low: 0.079 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 4.945 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | 18.157 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | 55.79 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 111.893 mean: 14.831 median: 10.864 AAP: 4.945 low: 0.298 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | 0.301 | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | -3.815 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | -30.18 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.463 mean: 0.7 median: 0.616 AAP: 0.301 low: 0.294 |
|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 18.453 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 65.303 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | 13.712 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | 16.061 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 342.592 AAP: 65.303 mean: 24.244 median: 14.212 low: -161.35 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 0.634 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.047 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -1.603 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 5.6 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 5.6 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 5.6 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 1.2 B | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 3.1 B | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 0.748 | |
| Current Ratio | 1.746 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 0.985 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | 32.567 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 3.547 AAP: 1.746 mean: 1.16 median: 1.045 low: 0.323 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 0.873 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | -0.759 % | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | 60.817 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.051 AAP: 0.873 mean: 0.306 median: 0.219 low: 0.059 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 39.576 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 0.607 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 1.396 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 46.972 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -103.273 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 75.047 mean: 14.426 median: 8.4 AAP: 1.396 low: -15.692 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | -0.007 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 243.096 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | 0.4 | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 2.5 | |
| Dividend Rate | $ 0.25 | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.005 | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -1.932 % | |
| Revenue Growth | -3.094 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -339.104 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -56.269 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 39.622 % AAP: -3.094 % mean: -4.098 % median: -4.227 % low: -25.856 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | -4400.0 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | 4176.038 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -254.386 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 87.591 % median: -16.471 % mean: -18.323 % low: -181.818 % AAP: -4400.0 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 44.045 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | 1.789 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | 153.278 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 71.35 % median: 44.097 % AAP: 44.045 % mean: 41.261 % low: 10.184 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 3.751 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | 101.018 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | -109.283 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 18.986 % mean: 11.716 % median: 10.828 % AAP: 3.751 % low: -7.692 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 3.447 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | 27.619 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -108.531 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 19.991 % mean: 11.764 % median: 11.014 % AAP: 3.447 % low: -7.69 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ -21.00 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | -0.716 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | -68.178 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | -84.458 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 9.132 % median: 0.448 % mean: 0.358 % AAP: -0.716 % low: -10.237 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -72.368 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -102.974 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -84.88 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 382.415 % median: 19.716 % mean: -54.782 % AAP: -72.368 % low: -636.544 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | -3.5 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | -1.521 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | -5.0 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.02 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 0.05 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | — | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -101.403 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 4.623 % median: 2.721 % mean: 2.437 % AAP: 0.05 % low: -2.24 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 0.967 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.003 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | -693.478 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -101.428 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.228 median: 0.041 mean: 0.008 AAP: 0.003 low: -0.186 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 0.273 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 0.791 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | 47.85 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -102.413 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 12.426 % mean: 7.466 % median: 7.379 % AAP: 0.791 % low: -3.079 % |
|