Recent News
Dec. 29, 2025 — Mesoblast announced a new five‑year credit facility, drawing US$75 million with an option to expand to US$125 million and lowering the company’s effective borrowing cost to 8.0% while leaving major assets and IP unencumbered. Dec. 21, 2025 — consensus one‑year price targets were revised higher, raising the average target to approximately $20.25. Nov. 25, 2025 — the company reported continued Ryoncil gross revenue strength for Q4 2025, with the quarter’s Ryoncil revenue exceeding US$30.0 million. Jan. 1, 2026 — board leadership shifted to strengthen commercial governance as Mesoblast transitions focus toward scaling Ryoncil commercialization.
Technical Analysis
ADX registers 11.56, indicating no established trend and a market prone to chop rather than directional conviction.
Directional indicators show a bearish setup: DI+ at 31.3 has peak‑and‑reversed, signaling a bearish impulse, while DI‑ at 32.9 has dip‑and‑reversed and risen, reinforcing downside pressure.
MACD sits negative at -0.29 with a peak‑and‑reversal pattern and with the MACD line below the signal line (-0.23), indicating bearish momentum and a recent shift toward declining trend strength.
MRO reads 8.27 and has dip‑and‑reversed; the positive MRO implies price sits above the model target and contains downside potential toward that target.
RSI at 49.61 has peak‑and‑reversed, reflecting a loss of recent upside momentum and a neutral-to-bearish short‑term bias.
Price relationships favor a near‑term bearish tilt: the close at $16.85 trades below short‑term EMAs (12‑day EMA $17.21; 26‑day EMA $17.54) and the 50‑day average $18.16, while remaining above the 200‑day average $15.28 — a mixed structure that typically resolves as consolidation or minor retracement when ADX remains below 20.
Bollinger bands place the close just above the 1‑sigma lower band ($16.32), with a narrow 20‑day stdev ($0.89), implying limited intraday dispersion but a higher probability of mean reversion than trend continuation. Volume on the day at ~170k falls below 10/50/200‑day averages (~217k–228k), suggesting moves lack conviction. Short‑term beta (42‑day) 1.99 versus 52‑week 1.61 underlines elevated sensitivity to market moves in the near term.
Fundamental Analysis
Top‑line momentum: reported revenue growth of 20.50% year‑over‑year shows meaningful commercial expansion, supporting the narrative that product revenue (Ryoncil) fuels near‑term topline gains.
Cash‑flow and liquidity: cash at period start stood at $144,719,000 and at period end $129,975,000, a cash decrease of $14,744,000; free cash flow for the period was negative $15,691,000. Invested capital shows a negative $33,001,000 balance. Capital expenditures remain modest at $133,000 outflow.
Free cash flow dynamics display short‑term divergence: free cash growth reads +2.86% on the metric provided but shows intra‑period deterioration with QoQ movement of -126.30% and YoY movement of -181.40% (both provided figures), underscoring episodic pressure on cash‑generation when measured across reporting windows.
Earnings and valuation multiples: forward EPS $0.0425 produces a forward P/E of 403.51, which sits well above the industry peer mean of 56.01 and outside the industry peer range provided (low -128.23; median -0.84; high 112.69), marking the stock as stretched on a forward‑multiple basis when compared to peers’ central tendency.
WMDST valuation and targets: the current valuation as determined by WMDST classifies the stock as over‑valued; consensus price target mean stands near $19.45 while the range of analyst targets spans roughly $9.27 to $34.20, indicating asymmetric expectations among analysts versus the WMDST assessment.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-12-31 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2026-01-27 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-04-28 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 144.7 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 0.00 | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -133.00 K | |
| Change In Working Capital | — | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ -14.74 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 130.0 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | — | |
| Forward Revenue | — | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | — | |
| Depreciation | — | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | — | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | — | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | — | |
| EBITDA | — | |
| EBIT | — | |
| Operating Income | — | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | — | |
| Net Interest Income | — | |
| Income Before Tax | — | |
| Tax Provision | — | |
| Tax Rate | — | |
| Net Income | — | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | — | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | — | |
| EPS Actual | — | |
| EPS Difference | — | |
| EPS Surprise | — | |
| Forward EPS | $ 0.04 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | — | |
| Intangible Assets | — | |
| Net Tangible Assets | — | |
| Total Current Assets | — | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | — | |
| Cash | — | |
| Net Receivables | — | |
| Inventory | — | |
| Long-Term Investments | — | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | — | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | — | |
| Net Debt | — | |
| Total Debt | — | |
| Total Liabilities | — | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | — | |
| Retained Earnings | — | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | — | |
| Shares Outstanding | — | |
| Revenue Per-Share | — | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | — |
| Enterprise Value | — | |
| Enterprise Multiple | — | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | — | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | — | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | — | |
| EV/R | — | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | — | |
| Asset To Liability | — | |
| Debt To Capital | — | |
| Debt To Assets | — | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | — | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | — | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | — | |
| Debt To Equity | — | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | — | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | — | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | — | |
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | — | |
| Price To Book QoQ | — | |
| Price To Book YoY | — | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | — | |
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | — | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | — | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | — | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | — | |
| PE/G Ratio | — | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | — | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | — | |
| Price To Sales YoY | — | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | — | |
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 403.507 | |
| Forward PE/G | — | |
| Forward P/S | — | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | — | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | — | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Receivables Turnover | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Inventory Turnover | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | — | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | — | |
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | — | |
| CapEx To Revenue | — | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | — | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | — | |
| Net Invested Capital | — | |
| Invested Capital | $ -33.00 M | |
| Net Tangible Assets | — | |
| Net Working Capital | — | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | — | |
| Current Ratio | — | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Current Ratio YoY | — | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Quick Ratio | — | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | — | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | — | |
| Cost Of Debt | 0.0 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | — | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | — | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | — | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | — | |
| Revenue Growth | 20.504 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | 0.0 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | 0.0 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 71.991 % MESO: 20.504 % median: 3.233 % mean: 2.756 % low: -83.784 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | — | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | — | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | — | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | — | |
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | — | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | — | |
| Gross Margin YoY | — | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | — | |
| EBIT Margin | — | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | — | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | — | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | — | |
| Return On Sales (ROS) | — | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | — | |
| Return On Sales YoY | — | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | — | |
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ -15.69 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | — | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | — | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | — | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | — | |
| Free Cash Growth | 2.858 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -126.297 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -181.401 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 124.18 % MESO: 2.858 % mean: -54.898 % median: -69.41 % low: -77.378 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | — | |
| Cash Flow Margin | — | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | — | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | — | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | — | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | — | |
| Return On Assets YoY | — | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | — | |
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | — | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | — | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | — | |
| Return On Equity YoY | — | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | — | |
| DuPont ROE | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | — | |