SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) Drives AI-Native Momentum Into Early 2026

SAP enters early 2026 with accelerating AI productization and intact profitability metrics, while technical indicators point to a low-conviction bullish bias over the coming weeks.

Recent News

November 17, 2025: SAP unveiled a wave of SAP Business AI innovations at SAP TechEd, including the SAP‑RPT‑1 relational foundation model and expanded SAP HANA Cloud capabilities. December 31, 2025: SAP extended the transition period for S/4HANA Compatibility Packs to the end of May 2026 to ease customer migrations. January 8, 2026: At NRF 2026 SAP announced AI enhancements for retail planning, operations and commerce. January 26, 2026: SAP positioned as a Leader in Gartner’s 2026 Magic Quadrant for Source‑to‑Pay Suites.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 16.59 signals no established trend, which limits conviction for a directional breakout despite mixed momentum signals.

Directional indicators show bullish structure: DI+ experienced a dip‑and‑reverse (DI+ increasing) and DI‑ peaked‑and‑reversed (DI‑ decreasing), implying directional pressure favoring upside relative to recent price action.

MACD shows a dip‑and‑reverse, indicating bullish momentum development; MACD remains negative at −3.22 and sits below the signal line (−2.79), so momentum lacks full confirmation from a bullish cross.

MRO reads 8.91 (positive), which indicates the price sits above WMDST’s target framework and creates potential mean‑reversion pressure even as short‑term momentum attempts to recover.

RSI at 43.01 with a dip‑and‑reverse suggests momentum attempting to climb from the lower neutral range, leaving room for further upside before approaching overbought levels.

Price sits at $233.94, below the 200‑day average ($271.29) and near the 20‑day average ($237.08); the 12‑day EMA shows a dip‑and‑reverse, consistent with the early momentum pickup but still under longer‑term resistance zones (Ichimoku Senkou cloud center ~ $251–$257).

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: EBIT totaled $3,057,000,000 with an EBIT margin of 33.68%, rising 9.76% QoQ and 19.27% YoY. The EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean (36.32%) and well below the industry peer median (45.06%), indicating margin expansion but a gap versus peer profitability medians.

Top line and growth: Total revenue reached $9,076,000,000. Reported revenue growth stands at 0.54%, while revenue growth QoQ registers 250.32% and revenue growth YoY shows −75.14%; those QoQ and YoY deltas reflect timing and comparability effects in the reported periods and warrant attention when forecasting near‑term revenue trends.

Capital and cash flow: Cash on hand equals $8,554,000,000 with cash and short‑term investments of $9,934,000,000. Operating cash flow reached $1,502,000,000 and free cash flow totaled $1,301,000,000, producing a free cash flow yield of 0.41%. Free cash flow growth YoY improved by 10.91%, while free cash flow yield fell QoQ by 43.55%.

Returns and leverage: Return on equity sits at 4.68%, up 31.86% YoY, and return on assets at 2.93%, up 40.19% YoY. Debt to equity measures 21.31% and debt to EBITDA equals 2.70x; interest coverage reads 9.80x, indicating manageable leverage and a comfortable interest servicing profile.

Market multiples and valuation context: Trailing PE stands at 137.94—near the industry peer median (137.28) and below the industry peer mean (146.04). Price‑to‑book equals 7.47, below the industry peer mean (12.61). WMDST values the stock as fair‑valued, reflecting robust margins, elevated multiples, and modest free cash flow yield.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-22
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-21
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 7.9 B
 Operating Cash Flow 1.5 B
 Capital Expenditures -201.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -1.10 B
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 612.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 8.6 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 9.1 B
 Forward Revenue 2.8 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 2.4 B
 Depreciation 318.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 318.0 M
 Research and Development 1.6 B
 Total Operating Expenses 6.6 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 6.7 B
 EBITDA 3.4 B
 EBIT 3.1 B
 Operating Income 2.5 B
 Interest Income 524.0 M
 Interest Expense 312.0 M
 Net Interest Income 212.0 M
 Income Before Tax 2.7 B
 Tax Provision 694.0 M
 Tax Rate 25.3 %
 Net Income 2.0 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 2.1 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.64
 EPS Actual 1.99
 EPS Difference 0.35
 EPS Surprise 21.341 %
 Forward EPS 2.12
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 68.4 B
 Intangible Assets 31.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 11.4 B
 Total Current Assets 18.9 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 9.9 B
 Cash 8.6 B
 Net Receivables 5.8 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 4.0 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 2.1 B
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 17.1 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 9.1 B
 Total Liabilities 25.2 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 42.8 B
 Retained Earnings 45.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 36.76
 Shares Outstanding 1.165 B
 Revenue Per-Share 7.79
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 319.7 B
 Enterprise Value 318.9 B
 Enterprise Multiple 94.48
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -11.423 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 5.338 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 725.943
SAP: 94.48
mean: 90.294
median: 78.121
low: -500.562
 EV/R 35.133
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.598
 Asset To Liability 2.719
 Debt To Capital 0.176
 Debt To Assets 0.133
Debt To Assets QoQ 4.293 %
Debt To Assets YoY 1749.653 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.164
mean: 0.173
SAP: 0.133
median: 0.095
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 0.213
Debt To Equity QoQ -0.122 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1649.343 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.803
mean: 0.294
SAP: 0.213
median: 0.167
low: -1.761
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 7.468
Price To Book QoQ -7.477 %
Price To Book YoY 20.91 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 32.156
mean: 12.611
median: 10.455
SAP: 7.468
low: -17.466
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 137.94
Price To Earnings QoQ -17.748 %
Price To Earnings YoY -22.248 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 535.496
mean: 146.036
SAP: 137.94
median: 137.28
low: -396.374
 PE/G Ratio 10.556
 Price To Sales (P/S) 35.223
Price To Sales QoQ -3.917 %
Price To Sales YoY 17.204 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 95.267
median: 48.871
mean: 46.415
SAP: 35.223
low: 1.307
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 163.376
Forward PE/G 12.502
Forward P/S 143.669
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 19.088
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.133
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 5.856 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 9.679 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.414
SAP: 0.133
mean: 0.127
median: 0.124
low: -0.008
 Receivables Turnover 1.571
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 19.714 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 7.86 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.055
SAP: 1.571
mean: 1.474
median: 1.265
low: -0.167
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 58.077
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -23.127
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 187.869 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 226.004
mean: -22.548
SAP: -23.127
median: -38.513
low: -211.399
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 5.053
 CapEx To Revenue -0.022
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.632
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 42.8 B
 Net Invested Capital 42.8 B
 Invested Capital 42.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets 11.4 B
 Net Working Capital 1.8 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.581
 Current Ratio 1.105
Current Ratio QoQ 7.187 %
Current Ratio YoY 0.522 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 8.127
mean: 1.732
median: 1.401
SAP: 1.105
low: 0.159
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 2.703
 Cost Of Debt 2.609 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 9.798
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -5.203 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -1.282 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 225.0
median: 50.142
mean: 39.169
SAP: 9.798
low: -266.667
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.128
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 81.204
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.0 %
 Revenue Growth 0.543 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 250.323 %
Revenue Growth YoY -75.137 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 28.215 %
mean: 3.227 %
median: 1.612 %
SAP: 0.543 %
low: -13.442 %
 Earnings Growth 13.068 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 1037.337 %
Earnings Growth YoY 10.577 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 200.0 %
SAP: 13.068 %
mean: 4.646 %
median: 1.918 %
low: -181.25 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 73.502 %
Gross Margin QoQ 0.226 %
Gross Margin YoY 0.22 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 90.981 %
SAP: 73.502 %
mean: 72.477 %
median: 69.046 %
low: 26.432 %
 EBIT Margin 33.682 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 9.763 %
EBIT Margin YoY 19.266 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 76.323 %
median: 45.059 %
mean: 36.315 %
SAP: 33.682 %
low: -105.646 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 27.215 %
Return On Sales QoQ -0.701 %
Return On Sales YoY -3.633 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 76.795 %
median: 48.873 %
mean: 38.018 %
SAP: 27.215 %
low: -133.444 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.3 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.407 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -43.551 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -20.971 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 10.114 %
median: 0.676 %
mean: 0.482 %
SAP: 0.407 %
low: -10.76 %
 Free Cash Growth -45.474 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 33.901 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 1091.042 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 368.524 %
median: 0.372 %
mean: -5.612 %
SAP: -45.474 %
low: -324.945 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.649
 Cash Flow Margin 24.052 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.089
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 2.93 %
Return On Assets QoQ 24.363 %
Return On Assets YoY 40.191 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 13.583 %
median: 4.421 %
mean: 3.76 %
SAP: 2.93 %
low: -19.283 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 5.961 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.047
Return On Equity QoQ 13.095 %
Return On Equity YoY 31.859 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.151
median: 0.076
mean: 0.066
SAP: 0.047
low: -0.395
 DuPont ROE 4.782 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.335 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 32.547 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -138.514 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 14.226 %
median: 6.978 %
mean: 5.474 %
SAP: 5.335 %
low: -12.344 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical setup implies a low‑conviction, tilt‑up bias: directional indicators and MACD’s dip‑and‑reverse point toward building bullish momentum, but ADX below 20 signals trend weakness and MRO positive warns of mean‑reversion risk. The price trading below the 200‑day average keeps longer‑term resistance intact, while RSI leaves room for a sustained recovery if momentum confirms.

Fundamentals provide support for constructive expectations: durable gross margin (73.50%), improving EBIT margin QoQ and YoY, credible cash balances, and an EPS beat (actual $1.99 vs. estimate $1.64; EPS surprise +21.34%) supply fundamental cover for any near‑term upside. Offsetting factors include low free cash flow yield (0.41%) and a high trailing PE near the peer median, which can cap upside absent continued revenue acceleration.

Near term, expect price action to react to confirmation from MACD crossing the signal line or a rise in ADX above 20; absent those confirmations, momentum attempts may pause as MRO‑driven mean reversion exerts pressure. Monitor upcoming product adoption updates and migration news that could reinforce the AI narrative and shift conviction higher.

About SAP SE

SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) develops and delivers enterprise application software and services globally. The company offers SAP S/4HANA, a comprehensive suite that supports finance, risk management, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain, and R&D. SAP SuccessFactors addresses human resources needs, covering HR management, payroll, talent management, and workforce analytics. Their spend management solutions manage direct and indirect spend, travel expenses, and external workforce. SAP provides customer experience solutions and the SAP Business Technology Platform, which facilitates application development, integration, and automation for clients and partners. The SAP Business Network enhances B2B collaboration, digitizing supply chain processes and enabling communication among trading partners. SAP Signavio assists clients in analyzing and optimizing business processes. Additionally, SAP offers industry cloud solutions tailored to specific industry needs, and Taulia solutions for working capital management, which help customers manage inflation impacts by improving visibility into working capital and liquidity access. SAP also emphasizes sustainability through its solutions and services. Founded in 1972, SAP SE maintains its headquarters in Walldorf, Germany.



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