Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) Accelerates Fastener Growth After Large Acquisition; Near-Term Pullback Likely

Howmet expands its mission-critical fastening footprint via a major acquisition while valuation reads over-valued, suggesting constrained upside into the near term.

Recent News

On December 22, 2025, Howmet announced an all-cash agreement to acquire Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing for approximately $1.8 billion, citing expected FY2026 revenue of roughly $485–$495 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin above 20% before synergies. On November 3, 2025, the company priced a $500 million debt offering of 4.550% Notes due 2032 to refinance higher-coupon debt and reduce annual interest expense. On January 20, 2026, the Board declared a $0.12 per share common dividend payable February 25, 2026. Market commentary in late January highlighted elevated intraday volume and mixed short-term performance around the company’s January 15–23 trading range.

Technical Analysis

ADX / DI+/DI-: ADX sits at 16.3, indicating no established trend; DI+ at 21.3 shows decreasing, while DI- at 20.13 shows increasing, which together create a bearish directional bias that pressures the price relative to its current over-valued stance.

MACD: MACD shows a peak & reversal; the MACD value (3.66) sits below the signal line (4.29), indicating bearish momentum and a shift away from prior bullish momentum.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO sits at 30.1 with a peak & reversal, meaning the price sits above the model target and carries downside potential into the near term against the valuation backdrop.

RSI: RSI at 56.61 with a peak & reversal signals fading upward pressure; the reading remains non-extended but favors momentum contraction consistent with other bearish indicators.

Price vs Moving Averages and Bands: Closing price $215.53 falls below the 20-day average ($218.38) and the 12-day EMA shows a peak & reversal; the 50-day and 200-day averages remain lower at $206.19 and $183.76 respectively. Bollinger bands place the price nearer the middle-to-lower band with short-term support near the SuperTrend lower at $211.93, implying limited immediate upside while downside finds structural support just below the current price.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue & Profitability: Reported total revenue equals $2,089,000,000 with revenue growth of 1.75%. Operating income registers $542,000,000 and EBIT equals $532,000,000, yielding an EBIT margin of 25.47%, which sits above the industry peer mean of 7.54% and the industry peer median of 12.71%.

Earnings Per Share: Reported EPS reached $0.95 versus an estimate of $0.91, producing an EPS surprise of +4.40% and earnings growth of 4.40% year-over-year on the provided metric.

Cash Generation & Coverage: Operating cash flow reached $531,000,000 with free cash flow of $423,000,000 and free cash flow yield of 0.56%, which lies below the industry peer mean free cash flow yield of 1.30%. Cash and short-term investments total $659,000,000 and the company shows a strong interest coverage ratio of 14.38, indicating ample ability to service interest despite elevated leverage ratios.

Leverage & Working Capital: Total debt measures $3,352,000,000 with net debt at $2,530,000,000 and debt-to-EBITDA about 5.55. The current ratio stands at 2.35 and quick ratio at 1.14, providing liquidity cushion while net working capital equals $2,199,000,000.

Valuation Multiples: P/E at 196.94 and P/B at 14.82 sit well above industry peer mean P/B of 6.70 and peer median of 5.20; enterprise multiple reads 129.29 and EV totals $78,091,080,030. Forward EPS implies a forward P/E near 161.49 and a price-target mean at $230.85. The current valuation as determined by WMDST classifies the stock as over-valued given those elevated multiples relative to cash-flow yield and leverage metrics.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 546.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 531.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -108.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 4.0 M
 Dividends Paid -48.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta 114.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 660.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 2.1 B
 Forward Revenue 608.7 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.4 B
 Depreciation 72.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 72.0 M
 Research and Development 10.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 1.5 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 652.0 M
 EBITDA 604.0 M
 EBIT 532.0 M
 Operating Income 542.0 M
 Interest Income 5.0 M
 Interest Expense 37.0 M
 Net Interest Income -32.00 M
 Income Before Tax 495.0 M
 Tax Provision 110.0 M
 Tax Rate 22.2 %
 Net Income 385.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 385.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.91
 EPS Actual 0.95
 EPS Difference 0.04
 EPS Surprise 4.396 %
 Forward EPS 1.11
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 11.2 B
 Intangible Assets 4.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 623.0 M
 Total Current Assets 3.8 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 659.0 M
 Cash 659.0 M
 Net Receivables 884.0 M
 Inventory 2.0 B
 Long-Term Investments 88.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 957.0 M
 Short-Term Debt 1.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 1.6 B
 Net Debt 2.5 B
 Total Debt 3.4 B
 Total Liabilities 6.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 5.1 B
 Retained Earnings 3.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 12.63
 Shares Outstanding 403.000 M
 Revenue Per-Share 5.18
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 75.4 B
 Enterprise Value 78.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple 129.29
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 2.251 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 53.879 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 142.731
HWM: 129.29
median: 53.347
mean: 44.201
low: -131.759
 EV/R 37.382
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.197
 Asset To Liability 1.852
 Debt To Capital 0.397
 Debt To Assets 0.3
Debt To Assets QoQ 1.678 %
Debt To Assets YoY -6.707 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.899
HWM: 0.3
mean: 0.293
median: 0.286
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 0.659
Debt To Equity QoQ 0.843 %
Debt To Equity YoY 299359.091 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.207
mean: 0.813
HWM: 0.659
median: 0.6
low: -1.213
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 14.819
Price To Book QoQ 5.395 %
Price To Book YoY 66.334 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 17.705
HWM: 14.819
mean: 6.699
median: 5.202
low: -3.162
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 196.939
Price To Earnings QoQ 4.546 %
Price To Earnings YoY 43.611 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 243.643
HWM: 196.939
median: 75.359
mean: 73.723
low: -135.508
 PE/G Ratio 44.8
 Price To Sales (P/S) 36.093
Price To Sales QoQ 5.676 %
Price To Sales YoY 67.133 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 70.781
HWM: 36.093
mean: 11.112
median: 9.371
low: 1.449
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 161.492
Forward PE/G 36.736
Forward P/S 123.875
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 2.812
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.188
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -0.101 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 8.79 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.384
HWM: 0.188
mean: 0.172
median: 0.139
low: 0.0
 Receivables Turnover 2.358
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.983 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -3.247 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 7.156
mean: 3.454
median: 2.566
HWM: 2.358
low: 0.616
 Inventory Turnover 0.73
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.647 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 9.182 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 5.174
mean: 1.717
median: 1.095
HWM: 0.73
low: 0.036
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 38.702
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 100.871
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -0.597 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -2.497 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 356.665
mean: 107.164
HWM: 100.871
median: 75.673
low: -64.961
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.95
 CapEx To Revenue -0.052
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.5
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 8.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 8.3 B
 Invested Capital 8.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 623.0 M
 Net Working Capital 2.2 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.406
 Current Ratio 2.353
Current Ratio QoQ 1.927 %
Current Ratio YoY 5.274 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 9.786
HWM: 2.353
mean: 1.51
median: 1.182
low: 0.407
 Quick Ratio 1.138
Quick Ratio QoQ 5.235 %
Quick Ratio YoY 15.925 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 5.116
HWM: 1.138
mean: 1.028
median: 0.949
low: 0.303
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 5.55
 Cost Of Debt 0.871 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 14.378
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 7.767 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 58.957 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 31.057
HWM: 14.378
median: 6.813
mean: 3.288
low: -123.353
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.233
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 63.156
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 8.021
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.125
 Dividend Rate 0.12
 Dividend Yield 0.001
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.186 %
 Revenue Growth 1.754 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -69.314 %
Revenue Growth YoY -173.266 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 67.474 %
mean: 3.302 %
HWM: 1.754 %
median: 1.704 %
low: -46.934 %
 Earnings Growth 4.396 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -24.389 %
Earnings Growth YoY -26.365 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 140.0 %
HWM: 4.396 %
median: 3.715 %
mean: 1.923 %
low: -116.667 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 31.211 %
Gross Margin QoQ 3.516 %
Gross Margin YoY -1.595 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 100.0 %
HWM: 31.211 %
median: 20.375 %
mean: 19.063 %
low: -39.082 %
 EBIT Margin 25.467 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 3.122 %
EBIT Margin YoY 17.419 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 58.23 %
HWM: 25.467 %
median: 12.705 %
mean: 7.542 %
low: -155.296 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 25.945 %
Return On Sales QoQ 3.627 %
Return On Sales YoY 19.623 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 57.493 %
HWM: 25.945 %
median: 11.15 %
mean: 5.509 %
low: -166.148 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 423.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.561 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 14.257 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 37.164 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.722 %
median: 1.51 %
mean: 1.295 %
HWM: 0.561 %
low: -6.506 %
 Free Cash Growth 22.965 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -85.346 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -143.633 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 251.349 %
median: 28.261 %
HWM: 22.965 %
mean: 0.393 %
low: -307.394 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.099
 Cash Flow Margin 18.143 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.984
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 3.465 %
Return On Assets QoQ -7.129 %
Return On Assets YoY 10.809 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 11.701 %
HWM: 3.465 %
median: 1.191 %
mean: 0.744 %
low: -17.358 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 5.57 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.076
Return On Equity QoQ -7.279 %
Return On Equity YoY 1.38 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.262
HWM: 0.076
mean: 0.07
median: 0.042
low: -0.285
 DuPont ROE 7.643 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.001 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -6.278 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -106.35 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 9.81 %
HWM: 5.001 %
median: 2.293 %
mean: 1.214 %
low: -16.009 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term price bias favors consolidation with downside vulnerability. Multiple momentum indicators—MACD peak & reversal, MRO positive with a peak & reversal, DI+ decreasing alongside DI- increasing, and RSI peak & reversal—align toward momentum erosion. ADX under 20 suggests range-bound conditions rather than a sustained directional move, so expect price to oscillate within a defined band while seeking confirmation from momentum or volume expansion.

Key developments that should shift the outlook include integration progress on the announced acquisition and any material changes in cash-flow or leverage metrics. Sustained improvement in free cash flow yield or a meaningful reduction in debt-to-EBITDA would support a re-rating; absence of such changes keeps upside constrained given WMDST’s over-valued assessment. For swing horizons, watch momentum confirmation or a failure of short-term support to define the dominant direction over the next six weeks.

About Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) develops advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the company operates globally, with a presence in the United States, Europe, Asia, and other regions. Howmet Aerospace structures its business into four main segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. In the Engine Products segment, Howmet Aerospace creates airfoils and seamless rolled rings that are crucial for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines. The Fastening Systems division manufactures durable fasteners for aerospace applications, as well as tools and components for commercial and industrial uses. The Engineered Structures segment focuses on producing titanium ingots, aluminum and nickel forgings, and precision-machined components for aerospace and defense sectors. The Forged Wheels segment delivers high-quality forged aluminum wheels designed for heavy-duty trucks and commercial transportation. Founded in 1888, Howmet Aerospace leverages its long-standing expertise and cutting-edge technology to meet the dynamic needs of its global clients, emphasizing excellence, innovation, and sustainability in its operations.



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