Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KROS) Poised For Near-Term Pullback Amid Strong Trend Dynamics

Keros shows financial strength from a large cash position and an under-valued WMDST valuation, but technicals point to a near-term weakening that could pressure price into consolidation. Fundamental metrics support capital flexibility while recent corporate actions concentrate capital return and strategic focus.

Recent News

November 19–20, 2025: Keros announced preliminary and then final results of a cash tender offer to repurchase up to 10,950,165 shares at $17.75 per share, accepting the full amount with final proration; the purchases conclude the previously announced $375 million capital return program. November 11 and November 6, 2025: major brokers maintained coverage with Overweight and Neutral stances and one-year price targets clustering above the then-share price.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX / DI+ / DI-): ADX at 33.24 signals a strong directional move; DI+ peaked and reversed while DI- is increasing, a combination that biases near-term price momentum to the downside despite overall trend strength. This directional setup suggests any valuation-driven support may meet selling pressure before consolidation.

MACD: MACD sits at 0.74 and is decreasing beneath its signal line at 0.95, indicating bearish momentum; absence of a MACD cross above the signal line removes a near-term bullish momentum trigger and favors consolidation toward moving-average support levels.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at 37.09 and increasing shows price trading above the modeled target and implies downside potential as momentum regresses toward the target; the oscillator strength amplifies the probability of a pullback that would realign price with valuation anchors.

RSI: RSI at 60.38 has peaked and reversed, a bearish swing signal that complements MACD and DI behavior and increases the likelihood of a corrective leg rather than a sustained breakout despite elevated relative strength readings.

Price vs. Moving Averages and Bands: Last close $20.36 sits below the 12-day EMA ($20.67) and the 20-day average ($20.97) but above the 50-day ($18.18) and 200-day ($15.08) averages; the 12-day EMA has peaked and reversed, which aligns with momentum indicators and frames probable short-term consolidation above the super-trend support at $19.72 and lower Bollinger band toward $19.75.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: Operating (EBIT) loss totaled -$15,384,000 with an EBIT margin of -107.87%, a QoQ deterioration of -50.78% and a YoY decline of -99.29%. The company’s EBIT margin sits slightly above the industry peer mean of -119.43% but below the industry peer median of 35.35%, indicating losses remain materially adverse versus typical profitable peers while modestly better than the industry mean.

Earnings and surprises: Reported EPS of -$0.18 beat consensus of -$0.92 by $0.74, an EPS surprise of 80.44%, improving near-term earnings optics and reducing downside risk from financial disappointment in the short run.

Revenue and growth: Total revenue registered $14,262,000 with reported revenue growth of -21.50%, revenue growth QoQ down -76.48% and revenue growth YoY down -102.27%, indicating significant near-term top-line variability that amplifies reliance on existing cash resources to fund operations and development.

Cash, liquidity, and leverage: Cash and short-term investments total $693,472,000 versus market capitalization of $615,586,224; current ratio stands at 29.86 and cash ratio at 28.78. Enterprise value appears negative at -$60,456,776, reflecting the firm’s net cash position. Low leverage (total debt $17,429,000) leaves the company well capitalized to fund clinical programs and the announced capital return program.

Returns and cash flow: Return on assets at -0.97% and return on equity at -1.04% reflect limited profitability, while operating cash flow of $3,249,000 and free cash flow of $3,117,000 produce a free cash flow yield of 0.51%. Free cash growth displays mixed pulses but cash reserves mitigate liquidity risk.

Valuation summary: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. Price-to-book at 0.87 sits well below the industry peer mean of 6.97 and price targets show a mean near $22.48, reinforcing that market price trades with a significant cash-backed valuation buffer even amid operational losses.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow $ 691.7 M
 Operating Cash Flow $ 3.2 M
 Capital Expenditures $ -132.00 K
 Change In Working Capital $ 5.5 M
 Dividends Paid —
 Cash Flow Delta $ 3.3 M
 End Period Cash Flow $ 694.9 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue $ 14.3 M
 Forward Revenue $ 14.6 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue —
 Depreciation $ 395.0 K
 Depreciation and Amortization $ 395.0 K
 Research and Development $ 19.5 M
 Total Operating Expenses $ 29.6 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit —
 EBITDA $ -14.99 M
 EBIT $ -15.38 M
 Operating Income $ -15.38 M
 Interest Income —
 Interest Expense —
 Net Interest Income —
 Income Before Tax $ -8.70 M
 Tax Provision $ -1.42 M
 Tax Rate 16.4 %
 Net Income $ -7.28 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations $ -7.28 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate $ -0.92
 EPS Actual $ -0.18
 EPS Difference $ 0.74
 EPS Surprise 80.435 %
 Forward EPS $ -0.74
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets $ 742.8 M
 Intangible Assets —
 Net Tangible Assets $ 703.6 M
 Total Current Assets $ 719.3 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments $ 693.5 M
 Cash $ 693.5 M
 Net Receivables $ 3.5 M
 Inventory —
 Long-Term Investments $ 1.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable $ 2.3 M
 Short-Term Debt —
 Total Current Liabilities $ 24.1 M
 Net Debt —
 Total Debt $ 17.4 M
 Total Liabilities $ 39.2 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity $ 703.6 M
 Retained Earnings $ -458.30 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share $ 17.32
 Shares Outstanding 40.632 M
 Revenue Per-Share $ 0.35
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization $ 615.6 M
 Enterprise Value $ -60.46 M
 Enterprise Multiple 4.033
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 80.954 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -114.002 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 52.77
median: 24.843
KROS: 4.033
mean: 3.607
low: -80.476
 EV/R -4.239
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.056
 Asset To Liability 18.947
 Debt To Capital 0.024
 Debt To Assets 0.023
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.054 %
Debt To Assets YoY 630.841 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.045
mean: 0.213
median: 0.074
KROS: 0.023
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 0.025
Debt To Equity QoQ -2.48 %
Debt To Equity YoY 609.742 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.395
mean: 0.193
median: 0.09
KROS: 0.025
low: -0.869
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.875
Price To Book QoQ 5.82 %
Price To Book YoY -78.901 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 17.968
mean: 6.969
median: 5.8
KROS: 0.875
low: -8.555
 Price To Earnings (P/E) -84.168
Price To Earnings QoQ 351.252 %
Price To Earnings YoY 110.864 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 56.753
mean: -3.743
median: -11.857
KROS: -84.168
low: -93.179
 PE/G Ratio 1.103
 Price To Sales (P/S) 43.163
Price To Sales QoQ 34.2 %
Price To Sales YoY -99.242 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 1129.647
mean: 73.46
KROS: 43.163
median: 25.506
low: 0.466
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E -10.546
Forward PE/G 0.138
Forward P/S 21.708
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 2.854
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.019
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -19.304 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 2436.0 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.438
mean: 0.117
median: 0.107
KROS: 0.019
low: -0.004
 Receivables Turnover 1.477
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 34.604 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -25.372 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.279
KROS: 1.477
mean: 1.452
median: 1.35
low: -0.057
 Inventory Turnover —
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ —
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY —
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 61.767
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 61.767
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -99.77 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 1241.621
median: 189.366
mean: 186.827
KROS: 61.767
low: -1809.09
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.021
 CapEx To Revenue -0.009
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.334
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital $ 703.6 M
 Net Invested Capital $ 703.6 M
 Invested Capital $ 703.6 M
 Net Tangible Assets $ 703.6 M
 Net Working Capital $ 695.2 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 28.784
 Current Ratio 29.857
Current Ratio QoQ 41.406 %
Current Ratio YoY 56.88 %
Current Ratio IPRWA KROS: 29.857
high: 25.502
mean: 4.389
median: 3.195
low: 0.02
 Quick Ratio —
Quick Ratio QoQ —
Quick Ratio YoY —
Quick Ratio IPRWA —
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -1.163
 Cost Of Debt 0.047 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -1538.4
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -61.363 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -73.773 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 815.709
mean: 40.923
median: 4.213
low: -1520.021
KROS: -1538.4
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.103
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) —
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio —
 Dividend Payout Ratio —
 Dividend Rate —
 Dividend Yield —
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -1.899 %
 Revenue Growth -21.499 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -76.478 %
Revenue Growth YoY -102.266 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 301.849 %
mean: 7.866 %
median: 4.118 %
KROS: -21.499 %
low: -259.856 %
 Earnings Growth -76.316 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -36.926 %
Earnings Growth YoY -696.219 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 162.5 %
median: -6.452 %
mean: -13.132 %
KROS: -76.316 %
low: -198.545 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin —
Gross Margin QoQ —
Gross Margin YoY —
Gross Margin IPRWA —
 EBIT Margin -107.867 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -50.782 %
EBIT Margin YoY -99.286 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 3270.865 %
median: 35.352 %
KROS: -107.867 %
mean: -119.429 %
low: -8139.786 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -107.867 %
Return On Sales QoQ -50.782 %
Return On Sales YoY -99.286 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 573.037 %
median: 26.151 %
KROS: -107.867 %
mean: -113.734 %
low: -7977.249 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) $ 3.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.506 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -109.744 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -136.195 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 30.655 %
median: 0.741 %
KROS: 0.506 %
mean: 0.301 %
low: -58.703 %
 Free Cash Growth -110.273 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -7.25 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 379.469 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 199.867 %
mean: 27.85 %
median: 21.696 %
KROS: -110.273 %
low: -198.468 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.428
 Cash Flow Margin 17.319 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.339
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added $ 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.971 %
Return On Assets QoQ -75.615 %
Return On Assets YoY -90.518 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 30.5 %
median: -0.016 %
KROS: -0.971 %
mean: -2.272 %
low: -66.968 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -2.141 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.01
Return On Equity QoQ -76.169 %
Return On Equity YoY -89.586 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.948
median: -0.002
mean: -0.006
KROS: -0.01
low: -1.385
 DuPont ROE -1.033 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -1.829 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -65.188 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -120.872 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 31.965 %
median: 4.232 %
mean: -0.087 %
KROS: -1.829 %
low: -73.241 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term bias leans toward a corrective phase and consolidation. Technicals — DI+ peak-and-reversal, rising DI-, MACD below its signal line, a peaked RSI, and an increasing MRO — collectively point to downside pressure or range-bound trading that would reconcile price with momentum and oscillator targets. Fundamental strength from a $693M cash position and the completion of a large capital return program reduces event-driven downside but does not negate technical signals; expect price to test the $19.70–$20.25 neighborhood (short-term support near the super-trend lower and lower Bollinger band) before any renewed directional advance. If momentum indicators stabilize and MACD begins rising toward a cross above the signal line, the near-term bias would shift away from corrective risk and favor re-acceleration toward the analyst mean target area noted above.

About Keros Therapeutics, Inc.

Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KROS) develops and commercializes innovative therapeutics targeting disorders associated with dysfunctional signaling of the transforming growth factor-beta family of proteins. Headquartered in Lexington, Massachusetts, this clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company advances its lead product candidate, KER-050, aimed at treating cytopenias, including anemia and thrombocytopenia, particularly in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes and myelofibrosis. Keros Therapeutics also progresses with KER-012, currently in Phase II clinical trials, designed to address pulmonary arterial hypertension and cardiovascular disorders. Additionally, KER-065 enters Phase I clinical trials targeting obesity and neuromuscular diseases. The company collaborates with Hansoh (Shanghai) Healthtech Co., Ltd., enhancing its capabilities to develop, manufacture, and commercialize KER-050 and related licensed products. Founded in 2015, Keros Therapeutics commits to advancing its pipeline and addressing unmet medical needs through targeted therapeutic development.



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