Trex Company, Inc. (NYSE:TREX) Poised To Rebound Amid Strong Cash Flow And Momentum Shift

Trex shows a combination of robust cash generation and technical indicators that point toward a near-term reversal from recent weakness. The balance between stretched valuation multiples and improving momentum will likely govern price action over the coming weeks.

Recent News

On October 1, 2025 the company named Prithvi S. Gandhi as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. On October 30, 2025 Trex expanded its distribution footprint by adding Weekes Forest Products across four states. On November 5, 2025 the company announced its fourth-quarter 2025 investor conference schedule.

Technical Analysis

ADX registers 54.86, indicating a very strong trend; the directional indicators show a shift toward bullish directional pressure as DI+ records a dip & reversal while DI- records a peak & reversal, implying recent downward dominance has begun to flip toward buyers and a strong trend environment now supports whatever directional bias develops.

MACD reads -5.06 with a dip & reversal in momentum and a signal line at -4.74; momentum shows an early improvement from deeper weakness but MACD remains below zero and below the signal line, so bullish momentum has started to re-emerge without a confirmed MACD crossover.

MRO stands at -43.59 and shows a decreasing trend, which indicates price sits well below the WMDST target and that the gap widened recently, implying pronounced upside potential if price reverts toward the target level.

RSI sits at 30.26 with a decreasing trend, keeping the stock near traditional oversold territory and supporting higher short-term volatility and the possibility of mean reversion if momentum confirms.

Price sits at $31.05 below the 12-day EMA ($33.40, decreasing), the 26-day EMA ($38.66), the 20-day average ($32.92) and well below longer-term averages (50-day $46.41; 200-day $56.44). Bollinger band width shows the 1x lower band at $28.26 and the 1x upper at $37.57; current price nearer the lower band suggests room for a bounce if short-term momentum stabilizes.

Volume recent activity registers 4.48 million with a 10-day average of 3.35 million and a 200-day average of 1.97 million, signaling above-average participation during recent moves and supporting greater conviction behind directional shifts.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue registers $285,348,000 with revenue growth year-over-year down -30.33% and quarter-over-quarter down -287.89%; sales contraction represents the principal headwind to margin and earnings dynamics over the last year and quarter.

Operating (EBIT) registers $70,397,000 and an operating margin of 24.67%, which sits above the industry peer mean of 16.07% and above the industry peer median of 19.98%, while remaining below the industry peer high of 27.68%; the margin strength provides meaningful earnings resilience despite revenue declines. Operating margin quarter-over-quarter fell -6.57% while year-over-year improved 6.18%.

Net income reached $51,770,000 and EPS printed $0.51 versus an estimate of $0.57, missing by $0.06, a -10.53% surprise; that earnings miss contributed to recent downward pressure but underlying profitability metrics remain positive.

Free cash flow reached $139,570,000, producing a free cash flow yield of 2.39% and free cash to net income of 269.60%, underlining strong cash conversion; WMDST highlights this cash generation as a primary support for current valuation.

Balance-sheet metrics show total debt $158,304,000, net debt $99,943,000, debt to EBITDA 1.83, and a current ratio of 1.20. Return on equity registers 4.97% and return on assets 3.46%, with asset turnover at 0.19. Asset growth paced down -5.55% while cash conversion cycle sits at 107.95 days, above the industry peer mean of 72.73 days but inside the industry peer range.

Valuation context: price-to-earnings stands at 106.69 and price-to-book at 5.60 (below the industry peer mean of 6.78 and slightly below the industry peer median of 5.73). Price-to-sales reads 20.45, which exceeds the industry peer high of 19.81. WMDST values the stock as under-valued given free cash flow strength and balance-sheet flexibility, but elevated revenue contraction and stretched sales-based multiples represent counterweights to that valuation view.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-04
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-03
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 5.5 M
 Operating Cash Flow 196.9 M
 Capital Expenditures -57.32 M
 Change In Working Capital 127.8 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 5.8 M
 End Period Cash Flow 11.4 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 285.3 M
 Forward Revenue 80.5 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 169.9 M
 Depreciation 16.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 16.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 215.0 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 115.4 M
 EBITDA 86.4 M
 EBIT 70.4 M
 Operating Income 70.4 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income
 Income Before Tax 70.4 M
 Tax Provision 18.6 M
 Tax Rate 26.5 %
 Net Income 51.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 51.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.57
 EPS Actual 0.51
 EPS Difference -0.06
 EPS Surprise -10.526 %
 Forward EPS 0.55
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.5 B
 Intangible Assets 30.4 M
 Net Tangible Assets 1.0 B
 Total Current Assets 337.8 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 11.4 M
 Cash 11.4 M
 Net Receivables 164.0 M
 Inventory 149.6 M
 Long-Term Investments 9.3 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 47.5 M
 Short-Term Debt 111.3 M
 Total Current Liabilities 282.2 M
 Net Debt 99.9 M
 Total Debt 158.3 M
 Total Liabilities 410.0 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.0 B
 Retained Earnings 1.8 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 9.72
 Shares Outstanding 107.254 M
 Revenue Per-Share 2.66
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 5.8 B
 Enterprise Value 6.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 69.241
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 18.728 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -36.132 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 133.234
TREX: 69.241
median: 68.27
mean: 67.181
low: -21.375
 EV/R 20.967
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.393
 Asset To Liability 3.543
 Debt To Capital 0.132
 Debt To Assets 0.109
Debt To Assets QoQ -43.08 %
Debt To Assets YoY 97.303 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.788
mean: 0.323
median: 0.25
TREX: 0.109
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 0.152
Debt To Equity QoQ -48.987 %
Debt To Equity YoY 92.605 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.445
median: 0.554
mean: 0.4
TREX: 0.152
low: -1.565
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 5.598
Price To Book QoQ -16.15 %
Price To Book YoY -31.963 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 11.181
mean: 6.784
median: 5.732
TREX: 5.598
low: 0.209
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 106.692
Price To Earnings QoQ 28.53 %
Price To Earnings YoY -41.697 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 252.187
TREX: 106.692
mean: 89.859
median: 86.426
low: -125.021
 PE/G Ratio -3.54
 Price To Sales (P/S) 20.452
Price To Sales QoQ 20.087 %
Price To Sales YoY -34.572 %
Price To Sales IPRWA TREX: 20.452
high: 19.814
mean: 11.816
median: 10.916
low: 0.477
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 108.448
Forward PE/G -3.598
Forward P/S 72.455
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.183
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.191
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -21.773 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 3.588 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.445
mean: 0.279
median: 0.271
TREX: 0.191
low: 0.119
 Receivables Turnover 1.254
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 10.284 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 9.989 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.048
mean: 1.725
median: 1.593
TREX: 1.254
low: 0.991
 Inventory Turnover 1.166
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -19.199 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 39.761 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.671
median: 1.467
mean: 1.344
TREX: 1.166
low: 0.131
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 72.787
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 107.951
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -14.789 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -15.243 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 192.11
TREX: 107.951
mean: 72.727
median: 54.627
low: -4.745
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 5.132
 CapEx To Revenue -0.201
 CapEx To Depreciation -3.58
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.2 B
 Invested Capital 1.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.0 B
 Net Working Capital 55.6 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.04
 Current Ratio 1.197
Current Ratio QoQ 10.703 %
Current Ratio YoY -14.741 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 6.403
mean: 1.958
median: 1.544
TREX: 1.197
low: 0.708
 Quick Ratio 0.667
Quick Ratio QoQ -10.23 %
Quick Ratio YoY 1.697 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 4.623
mean: 1.288
median: 0.863
low: 0.747
TREX: 0.667
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 1.832
 Cost Of Debt 0.0 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 14079.4
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -31.252 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 29.635 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA TREX: 14079.4
high: 51.973
mean: 16.605
median: 15.913
low: -18.989
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.595
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 22.723
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -5.552 %
 Revenue Growth -26.419 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -287.888 %
Revenue Growth YoY -30.328 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 23.324 %
median: -0.068 %
mean: -2.015 %
low: -15.024 %
TREX: -26.419 %
 Earnings Growth -30.137 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -239.092 %
Earnings Growth YoY -43.931 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 94.737 %
mean: -2.131 %
median: -10.526 %
TREX: -30.137 %
low: -63.636 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 40.455 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.79 %
Gross Margin YoY 1.444 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 64.041 %
TREX: 40.455 %
median: 36.023 %
mean: 34.783 %
low: 16.122 %
 EBIT Margin 24.671 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -6.567 %
EBIT Margin YoY 6.18 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 27.681 %
TREX: 24.671 %
median: 19.979 %
mean: 16.072 %
low: -24.883 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 24.671 %
Return On Sales QoQ -6.567 %
Return On Sales YoY 6.18 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 25.101 %
TREX: 24.671 %
median: 20.293 %
mean: 17.36 %
low: -11.787 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 139.6 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.392 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -20.479 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 220.643 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 6.725 %
TREX: 2.392 %
mean: 1.649 %
median: 1.015 %
low: -3.853 %
 Free Cash Growth -29.757 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -83.903 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -54.612 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 482.946 %
mean: 71.663 %
median: 55.364 %
TREX: -29.757 %
low: -294.449 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.696
 Cash Flow Margin 58.818 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 3.242
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 3.462 %
Return On Assets QoQ -27.513 %
Return On Assets YoY 8.289 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.849 %
median: 3.566 %
TREX: 3.462 %
mean: 3.138 %
low: -6.099 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 6.015 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.05
Return On Equity QoQ -35.28 %
Return On Equity YoY 8.737 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.23
median: 0.062
mean: 0.056
TREX: 0.05
low: -0.203
 DuPont ROE 5.096 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 4.485 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -26.99 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -93.68 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 16.563 %
median: 6.76 %
mean: 6.476 %
TREX: 4.485 %
low: -4.022 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical indicators and cash-flow fundamentals suggest a higher probability of a tactical rebound in the coming six weeks, conditional on momentum confirmation. Key near-term dynamics include continued MRO-driven mean reversion potential, oversold RSI supporting a bounce, and a MACD momentum revival that needs a confirmed crossover to verify a sustained upmove. Elevated ADX means any confirmed directional move may carry strength; however, stretched sales multiples and weak recent revenue trends increase sensitivity to negative headlines. Active traders should watch for strengthening MACD and rising DI+ relative to DI- as confirmation, while monitoring volume to gauge conviction behind any reversal.

About Trex Company, Inc.

Trex Company, Inc. (NYSE:TREX) manufactures and distributes composite decking, railing, and outdoor living products for both residential and commercial markets in the United States. The company offers a range of decking products under the brand names Trex Transcend, Trex Select, Trex Signature, Trex Transcend Lineage, and Trex Enhance, all designed to resist fading, staining, mold, and scratching. Trex also provides Trex Hideaway, a hidden fastening system, and Trex DeckLighting, an LED dimmable lighting solution for decks. In addition to decking, Trex produces railing products such as Trex Transcend and Trex Select Railing, as well as Trex Enhance and Trex Signature aluminum railing for contemporary aesthetics. The company’s offerings extend to Trex Seclusions fencing, comprising structural posts, rails, pickets, and decorative caps. Trex licenses its brand for various products, including Trex Outdoor Furniture, Trex RainEscape deck drainage systems, Trex Pergola, Trex Latticeworks, and more. Products reach consumers through wholesale distributors, retail lumber dealers, and major retailers like Home Depot and Lowe’s. Founded in 1996, Trex Company, Inc. is headquartered in Winchester, Virginia.



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