Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) Posts Production Gains, Signals Near-Term Technical Weakness

Record operational output contrasts with elevated multiples and technical indicators that favor a short, range-bound phase before any sustained recovery. Fundamentals show cash generation and strong margins, while technicals and WMDST valuation argue caution.

Recent News

On July 29, 2025, the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share payable on September 2, 2025. On July 30–31, 2025 the company published Q2 2025 results and slides showing record production growth while citing commodity-price pressure; management reported substantial shareholder returns via dividends and open-market repurchases during the quarter.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 12.08 indicates no established trend, which reduces conviction behind directional moves and increases the probability of range-bound price action near current levels; that complicates translation of operational strength into immediate upside against an over-valued backdrop.

Directional indicators present opposing signals: DI- shows a peak-and-reversal (bullish per directional rules), while DI+ is decreasing (a bearish sign). The coexistence of a DI- peak-and-reversal with a declining DI+ implies short-term countervailing pressure rather than a clear breakout bias.

MACD sits at -0.31 and trends downward while remaining below its signal line (-0.21); negative and declining MACD indicates bearish momentum that weighs on any near-term upside despite production strength.

MRO reads -28.78 (negative), indicating price below regression target and technical room for an increase; the negative MRO suggests mean-reversion potential if momentum shifts, but the current MRO trend remains decreasing.

RSI at 47.99 with a recent peak-and-reversal places the oscillator near neutral territory; RSI does not support an immediate oversold bounce nor clear breakout strength, reinforcing a likely consolidation phase.

Price sits below short- and long-term averages (close $22.82 vs 20-day $23.25 and 200-day $23.20), 12-day EMA trending down, and Ichimoku span values (Senkou A $24.20, Senkou B $23.70) remain above price—these align with short-term technical weakness. Bollinger bands put the close marginally above the 1x lower band ($22.68), suggesting limited downside cushion but not a robust reversal signal. Volume runs below 10-, 50- and 200-day averages, reducing conviction for directional moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: EBIT $107,570,000 and operating margin 33.80% outpace the industry peer mean operating margin (17.894% implied by the provided industry figures) and the industry peer median; gross margin stands at 47.60%, also above the industry peer mean. High margins support intrinsic cash generation even as revenues compress.

Cash flow and returns: Operating cash flow $198,698,000 and free cash flow $98,411,000 translate to a free cash flow yield of 2.23%, above the industry peer mean free cash flow yield (1.26%). Cash conversion ratio equals 248.98%, and cashFlowToEarnings at 125.98% shows cash generation comparable to reported earnings—funds that funded dividends and repurchases referenced in recent announcements.

Growth and trends: Total revenue $318,981,000 with revenue growth at -8.94% (YoY). Earnings growth reads -19.23% (annual). Quarter-over-quarter and YoY growth fields include larger negative multipliers in the dataset; presented core indicators show contraction in topline and earnings versus comparable periods, which helps explain pressure on some forward multiples.

Balance-sheet and leverage: Current ratio 1.44x and cash plus short-term investments $251,761,000 indicate solid near-term liquidity. Total debt $411,628,000 yields debt/EBITDA ~1.92x and debt/equity ~0.21x; interest coverage of ~19.20x signals conservative leverage and ample capacity to service debt while returning cash to shareholders.

Valuation multiples: Reported PE ~54.97 and forward PE ~46.67 sit above many peer central tendencies; P/B ~2.27 exceeds the industry peer mean (1.55), and PS ~13.81 sits above the industry peer mean (6.05). WMDST values the stock as over-valued, a conclusion consistent with elevated multiples versus peer central measures and a price-target mean ($21.51) below the recent close ($22.82).

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 247.6 M
 Operating Cash Flow 198.7 M
 Capital Expenditures -100.29 M
 Change In Working Capital -15.50 M
 Dividends Paid -28.35 M
 Cash Flow Delta 4.2 M
 End Period Cash Flow 251.8 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 319.0 M
 Forward Revenue 92.3 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 167.2 M
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 211.2 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 151.8 M
 EBITDA 214.7 M
 EBIT 107.6 M
 Operating Income 107.8 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 5.6 M
 Net Interest Income -5.60 M
 Income Before Tax 102.0 M
 Tax Provision 20.9 M
 Tax Rate 20.5 %
 Net Income 78.1 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 81.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.40
 EPS Actual 0.42
 EPS Difference 0.02
 EPS Surprise 5.0 %
 Forward EPS 0.49
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.9 B
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 1.9 B
 Total Current Assets 416.7 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 251.8 M
 Cash 251.8 M
 Net Receivables 160.3 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 32.8 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 165.5 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 288.6 M
 Net Debt 141.1 M
 Total Debt 411.6 M
 Total Liabilities 862.3 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.9 B
 Retained Earnings 878.4 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 10.35
 Shares Outstanding 185.505 M
 Revenue Per-Share 1.70
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 4.4 B
 Enterprise Value 4.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple 21.265
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 14.877 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 5.315 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 75.659
mean: 30.372
median: 28.835
MGY: 21.265
low: -7.608
 EV/R 14.31
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.473
 Asset To Liability 3.317
 Debt To Capital 0.175
 Debt To Assets 0.144
Debt To Assets QoQ 0.321 %
Debt To Assets YoY 3.787 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.609
mean: 0.236
median: 0.212
MGY: 0.144
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 0.212
Debt To Equity QoQ -0.357 %
Debt To Equity YoY -2.2 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.807
mean: 0.726
median: 0.442
MGY: 0.212
low: 0.002
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.269
Price To Book QoQ 1.268 %
Price To Book YoY -12.806 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 3.756
MGY: 2.269
median: 1.768
mean: 1.551
low: 0.005
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 54.967
Price To Earnings QoQ 29.739 %
Price To Earnings YoY 22.651 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 185.623
MGY: 54.967
mean: 51.992
median: 48.382
low: -96.671
 PE/G Ratio -2.858
 Price To Sales (P/S) 13.808
Price To Sales QoQ 11.655 %
Price To Sales YoY -1.706 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 30.921
MGY: 13.808
mean: 6.046
median: 5.84
low: 0.012
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 46.675
Forward PE/G -2.427
Forward P/S 47.161
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 2.405
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.111
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -9.574 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -6.57 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.422
median: 0.165
mean: 0.154
MGY: 0.111
low: 0.002
 Receivables Turnover 2.005
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -12.497 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 10.577 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.047
MGY: 2.005
mean: 1.94
median: 1.804
low: 0.322
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 45.513
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 2.49
 CapEx To Revenue -0.314
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 2.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 2.3 B
 Invested Capital 2.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.9 B
 Net Working Capital 128.1 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.872
 Current Ratio 1.444
Current Ratio QoQ 8.252 %
Current Ratio YoY 12.925 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 5.453
MGY: 1.444
median: 1.249
mean: 1.198
low: 0.329
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 1.918
 Cost Of Debt 1.082 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 19.195
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -26.434 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -50.154 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 22.447
MGY: 19.195
mean: 6.94
median: 6.558
low: -6.198
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.238
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 91.843
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 2.755
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.363
 Dividend Rate 0.15
 Dividend Yield 0.006
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.278 %
 Revenue Growth -8.941 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -223.256 %
Revenue Growth YoY -264.994 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 43.755 %
median: -3.774 %
mean: -5.013 %
MGY: -8.941 %
low: -35.032 %
 Earnings Growth -19.231 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -340.387 %
Earnings Growth YoY -234.614 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 122.222 %
MGY: -19.231 %
median: -21.739 %
mean: -23.69 %
low: -180.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 47.595 %
Gross Margin QoQ -8.603 %
Gross Margin YoY -10.556 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 82.166 %
MGY: 47.595 %
mean: 24.852 %
median: 22.581 %
low: -39.892 %
 EBIT Margin 33.723 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -13.796 %
EBIT Margin YoY -16.133 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 95.08 %
MGY: 33.723 %
mean: 17.182 %
median: 13.652 %
low: -39.515 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 33.8 %
Return On Sales QoQ -13.599 %
Return On Sales YoY -15.941 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 90.781 %
MGY: 33.8 %
mean: 13.894 %
median: 11.212 %
low: -39.515 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 98.4 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.234 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 3.714 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -32.467 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 8.634 %
MGY: 2.234 %
median: 1.276 %
mean: 1.261 %
low: -11.931 %
 Free Cash Growth 5.453 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -12.738 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -94.744 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 300.833 %
MGY: 5.453 %
mean: -16.361 %
median: -24.008 %
low: -616.098 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.26
 Cash Flow Margin 21.572 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.881
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 2.727 %
Return On Assets QoQ -24.627 %
Return On Assets YoY -19.367 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.797 %
MGY: 2.727 %
mean: 1.195 %
median: 0.982 %
low: -3.385 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 4.182 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.04
Return On Equity QoQ -24.404 %
Return On Equity YoY -23.44 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.111
MGY: 0.04
mean: 0.029
median: 0.027
low: -0.087
 DuPont ROE 4.032 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.662 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -23.18 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -95.98 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 6.932 %
MGY: 3.662 %
mean: 2.633 %
median: 2.373 %
low: -4.078 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect range-bound trading with downside bias absent a catalyst. Technicals show bearish momentum (declining MACD, price under moving averages) tempered by a negative MRO that signals mean-reversion potential; low ADX suggests those forces will likely produce lateral movement rather than a decisive trend. Watch for catalysts that affect commodity realizations or renewed share-return announcements to change the near-term technical tone.

About Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) acquires, develops, and produces oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. The company concentrates its efforts primarily in South Texas, with significant operations in Karnes County and the Giddings area. These regions encompass the prolific Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations, known for their rich hydrocarbon deposits. Founded in 2017 and headquartered in Houston, Texas, Magnolia Oil & Gas leverages its expertise to efficiently manage and expand its portfolio of energy assets. The company’s strategic focus on these key areas enables it to optimize resource extraction and deliver consistent results in the energy sector.



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