Zscaler, Inc. (NASDAQ:ZS) Completes AI SOC Deals, Signals Near-Term Bearish Pullback

Zscaler shows operational momentum from recent AI and SOC deals while technical indicators and extreme valuation point toward near-term downward pressure on the share price. Financial metrics show strong gross margins and cash but multiples and leverage drive a valuation classified as over-valued by WMDST.

Recent News

On August 1, 2025 Zscaler announced completion of its acquisition of Red Canary to combine threat intelligence and agentic AI-driven security operations.

On August 20, 2025 Zscaler expanded the Red Canary partnership with CrowdStrike to integrate endpoint telemetry and accelerate AI-driven SOC workflows.

On October 14, 2025 coverage noted Zscaler’s stock pulled back after approaching a buy point, while the company reported continued ARR strength above $3 billion and provided guidance for fiscal 2026.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show a weak trend: ADX at 16.24 indicates no established trend, while DI+ at 24.00 completed a peak-and-reversal and DI- at 20.03 completed a dip-and-reversal, both signaling bearish directional pressure against the recent valuation and implying near-term downside bias.

MACD sits at 5.36 below its signal line at 5.74 with a peak-and-reversal in the MACD trend, reflecting falling bullish momentum and reinforcing the directional indicators’ bearish message for short-term price movement.

MRO at 34.22 reads positive, indicating price above modeled target and a likelihood of downward adjustment; the MRO trend shows a peak-and-reversal, which amplifies the downside potential relative to the current valuation level.

RSI at 54.16 near neutral completed a peak-and-reversal, implying momentum has rolled over from recent highs; momentum indicators together point to consolidation under short-term pressure rather than fresh breakout strength.

Price sits at $299.24 under the 20-day average of $304.82 and the 12-day EMA trend shows a peak-and-reversal, which biases the short-term price path lower; the close remains above the 50-day average ($285.91) and well above the 200-day average ($248.47), so medium- and longer-term structural support persists while immediate risk skews to the downside.

Bollinger bands place the 1σ upper near $312 and 1σ lower near $297, with the super trend lower at $294.39; the price trading inside the upper band region accompanied by below-average 10‑day volume suggests any pullback could find technical support near the $294–$297 area before retesting higher targets.

Volatility readings (42‑day and 52‑week) remain moderate and betas (42‑day 1.26, 52‑week 1.37) signal above-market sensitivity; lower short-term volume relative to 10‑ and 50‑day averages reduces conviction behind recent moves and increases the probability of mean reversion toward moving average support levels.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: Gross margin at 76.05% remains above the industry peer mean of 74.17% and median of 73.23%, supporting premium multiples; operating margin at -4.30% contrasts with the industry peer mean of 20.29% and median of 25.53%, reflecting continued investment into growth and product scale. EBIT stands at -$4,122,000 and EBITDA at $30,218,000, producing an EBIT margin of -0.57% versus the industry peer mean of 21.03% and median of 25.53%.

Growth: Reported revenue of $719,226,000 pairs with revenue growth quarter-over-quarter of 30.62% and revenue growth year-over-year of -15.27%; the QoQ acceleration suggests seasonal or timing effects while YoY contraction indicates a higher-comparison base or product mix shifts that require monitoring before assuming sustained topline expansion.

Cash, liquidity and leverage: Cash and short-term investments total $3,572,409,000 with cash alone at $2,389,023,000 and a current ratio of 2.01, indicating strong near-term liquidity. Total debt at $1,796,576,000 yields a debt-to-EBITDA of 59.45, reflecting leverage relative to current operating cash generation despite a net cash-like position on the balance sheet when including short-term investments.

Cash flow and efficiency: Free cash flow totaled $171,921,000 with a free cash flow yield of 0.39% (slightly above the industry peer mean of 0.37%), and operating cash flow of $250,604,000. Asset turnover at 0.122 compares slightly above the industry peer mean of 0.114, but receivables turnover at 0.895 lags the peer mean, producing a cash conversion cycle of 72.31 days versus a peer mean of 45.89 days.

Per‑share and multiples: EPS actual $0.89 beat the estimate $0.80 by $0.09, an EPS surprise ratio of 11.25%. Current P/E registers at 310.57x with P/B at 24.32x and P/S at 60.84x; those multiples sit above the industry peer mean and median ranges and drive the WMDST valuation conclusion. Enterprise multiple at 1,389 further signals extreme premium relative to operating scale.

Valuation Summary: WMDST values the stock as over-valued. High gross margins and a strong cash position mitigate some risk, but elevated multiples (P/E, P/S, P/B) combined with negative operating margins and elevated debt-to-EBITDA create valuation stress against the near-term technical setup.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-07-31
REPORT DATE: 2025-09-02
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-12-01
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 2.0 B
 Operating Cash Flow 250.6 M
 Capital Expenditures -78.68 M
 Change In Working Capital -2.66 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 398.1 M
 End Period Cash Flow 2.4 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 719.2 M
 Forward Revenue -1.44 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 172.2 M
 Depreciation 30.3 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 34.3 M
 Research and Development 177.6 M
 Total Operating Expenses 750.2 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 547.0 M
 EBITDA 30.2 M
 EBIT -4.12 M
 Operating Income -30.93 M
 Interest Income 33.2 M
 Interest Expense -2.22 M
 Net Interest Income 31.1 M
 Income Before Tax -1.90 M
 Tax Provision 15.7 M
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income -17.58 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -17.58 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.80
 EPS Actual 0.89
 EPS Difference 0.09
 EPS Surprise 11.25 %
 Forward EPS 0.89
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 6.4 B
 Intangible Assets 465.1 M
 Net Tangible Assets 1.3 B
 Total Current Assets 4.9 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 3.6 B
 Cash 2.4 B
 Net Receivables 992.2 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 98.7 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 46.9 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 2.4 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 1.8 B
 Total Liabilities 4.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.8 B
 Retained Earnings -1.19 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 11.37
 Shares Outstanding 158.301 M
 Revenue Per-Share 4.54
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 43.8 B
 Enterprise Value 42.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 1389.219
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 51.819 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 16.456 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA ZS: 1389.219
high: 913.757
median: 119.829
mean: 102.398
low: -500.562
 EV/R 58.367
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.568
 Asset To Liability 1.389
 Debt To Capital 0.5
 Debt To Assets 0.28
Debt To Assets QoQ 21.605 %
Debt To Assets YoY 15.269 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.701
mean: 0.326
median: 0.314
ZS: 0.28
low: 0.005
 Debt To Equity 0.999
Debt To Equity QoQ 46.664 %
Debt To Equity YoY 11.374 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.26
ZS: 0.999
mean: 0.382
median: 0.216
low: -0.716
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 24.318
Price To Book QoQ 27.469 %
Price To Book YoY 8.397 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 29.644
ZS: 24.318
median: 23.159
mean: 18.245
low: -17.466
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 310.568
Price To Earnings QoQ 17.957 %
Price To Earnings YoY 45.801 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 575.231
ZS: 310.568
mean: 177.99
median: 153.023
low: -214.856
 PE/G Ratio 52.179
 Price To Sales (P/S) 60.837
Price To Sales QoQ 19.791 %
Price To Sales YoY 26.183 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 95.267
ZS: 60.837
mean: 42.819
median: 42.816
low: 5.82
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 311.677
Forward PE/G 52.365
Forward P/S -30.361
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -26.852
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.122
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -6.683 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -8.147 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.231
ZS: 0.122
mean: 0.114
median: 0.104
low: 0.048
 Receivables Turnover 0.895
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -25.449 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -6.235 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.437
mean: 1.904
median: 1.716
ZS: 0.895
low: 0.56
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 102.003
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 72.309
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 90.931
ZS: 72.309
mean: 45.895
median: 44.35
low: -19.63
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.292
 CapEx To Revenue -0.109
 CapEx To Depreciation -2.6
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 3.5 B
 Net Invested Capital 3.5 B
 Invested Capital 3.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.3 B
 Net Working Capital 2.5 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.47
 Current Ratio 2.014
Current Ratio QoQ 63.01 %
Current Ratio YoY 84.615 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 5.697
ZS: 2.014
mean: 1.127
median: 0.942
low: 0.436
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 59.454
 Cost Of Debt -0.116 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 1.858
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -61.392 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -546.321 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 93.343
mean: 9.384
median: 4.713
ZS: 1.858
low: -28.274
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.151
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 29.694
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 20.231 %
 Revenue Growth 6.075 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 30.617 %
Revenue Growth YoY -15.272 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 11.139 %
ZS: 6.075 %
median: 3.01 %
mean: 1.293 %
low: -6.143 %
 Earnings Growth 5.952 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -22.621 %
Earnings Growth YoY
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 114.286 %
ZS: 5.952 %
median: 4.941 %
mean: 3.151 %
low: -13.529 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 76.052 %
Gross Margin QoQ -1.226 %
Gross Margin YoY -2.545 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 90.981 %
ZS: 76.052 %
mean: 74.167 %
median: 73.229 %
low: 59.218 %
 EBIT Margin -0.573 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -159.502 %
EBIT Margin YoY 126.482 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 37.642 %
median: 25.525 %
mean: 21.029 %
ZS: -0.573 %
low: -41.293 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -4.3 %
Return On Sales QoQ -546.521 %
Return On Sales YoY 1599.605 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 36.289 %
median: 25.525 %
mean: 20.288 %
ZS: -4.3 %
low: -44.13 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 171.9 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.393 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 13.256 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -17.61 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 2.218 %
ZS: 0.393 %
mean: 0.373 %
median: 0.246 %
low: -1.333 %
 Free Cash Growth 43.912 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -362.804 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 309.856 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 259.959 %
ZS: 43.912 %
mean: -35.077 %
median: -87.615 %
low: -108.458 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -9.78
 Cash Flow Margin -51.074 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 20.897
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.299 %
Return On Assets QoQ 273.75 %
Return On Assets YoY -10.479 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.233 %
median: 1.678 %
mean: 1.591 %
ZS: -0.299 %
low: -9.564 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -0.103 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.01
Return On Equity QoQ 326.638 %
Return On Equity YoY -16.353 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.151
median: 0.115
mean: 0.065
ZS: -0.01
low: -0.192
 DuPont ROE -0.975 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -0.093 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -70.192 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -198.936 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 10.16 %
median: 3.218 %
mean: 3.048 %
ZS: -0.093 %
low: -12.344 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term bias tilts toward consolidation with downside pressure. Technical indicators (DI+ and DI- reversals, MACD below signal, MRO positive and reversing, RSI peaked) align with a short-term bearish tilt that could drive price testing of the $294–$297 support band defined by the super trend lower and lower Bollinger boundary. Medium-term moving averages (50- and 200-day) provide higher support levels, so a failure below $294 would increase the likelihood of deeper mean reversion toward the 50‑day average near $286. Given the valuation classified as over-valued by WMDST, expect heightened sensitivity to execution and integration news around recent AI and SOC deals, which will influence swing amplitude and directional conviction over the next six weeks.

About Zscaler, Inc.

Zscaler, Inc. (NASDAQ:ZS) develops cloud-based security solutions that ensure secure access and data protection for enterprises worldwide. The company offers Zscaler Internet Access, which secures user access to externally managed applications, including SaaS applications and internet destinations. Zscaler Private Access provides secure connectivity to internally hosted applications in data centers and cloud environments. Zscaler Digital Experience assesses end-to-end user experience across business applications, delivering digital experience scores for users, applications, and locations within an enterprise. Additionally, Zscaler delivers Posture Control solutions for cloud applications and workload data security, safeguarding data in public cloud environments. Their Cloud Infrastructure Entitlement Management offers detailed insights into identity and privilege access management. The company’s Workload Segmentation solutions secure application-to-application communications in public clouds and data centers, while Zero Trust Device Segmentation provides agentless segmentation for IT and OT environments. Zscaler also offers Zero Trust SD-WAN solutions. Headquartered in San Jose, California, Zscaler caters to diverse industries, including airlines, transportation, consumer goods, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, media, public sector, technology, and telecommunications. Established in 2007, Zscaler continues to innovate in the realm of cloud security.



© 2025 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.