AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV) Extends Upswing Despite Signs Of Momentum Peaking

Shares show a strong structural advance, but several momentum indicators signal a near-term plateau that could compress upside. Liquidity and valuation metrics point to a capitalized business with negative operating profitability and meaningful cash on the balance sheet.

Recent News

On July 24, 2025 AeroVironment announced “Skyfall,” a Mars helicopter swarm concept developed with NASA’s JPL to support future human-landing site reconnaissance.

On September 30, 2025 a 91‑day lock-up on certain executive and director shares expired, allowing limited restricted sales following underwriting agreements tied to recent offerings.

In early October 2025 multiple brokerages updated targets and maintained positive coverage, lifting several price objectives across the analyst community.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show a strong trend but a directional shift: ADX at 42.17 indicates a very strong trend, while DI+ at 41.29 shows a peak-and-reversal, which signals waning bullish directional pressure and a move toward directional exhaustion.

DI- sits at 13.10 with a dip-and-reversal characteristic, consistent with rising negative directional pressure; together with the DI+ peak, the directional system favors reduced upside momentum into the near term.

MACD registered at 34.21 with a peak-and-reversal pattern. That peak-and-reverse represents bearish momentum even as MACD currently sits above its signal line (signal 30.09), indicating residual crossover strength but a deteriorating momentum profile.

MRO stands at 39.83 and trending higher, which places the current price above the oscillator’s target and implies elevated potential for mean reversion and downward pressure on price from an objective momentum/target perspective.

RSI at 66.8 with a peak-and-reversal trend shows recent loss of momentum from an overbought‑adjacent level, suggesting limited room for sustained immediate gains without a corrective consolidation.

Price sits well above major averages—close $384.69 versus the 20‑day average $370.50, 50‑day average $285.79 and 200‑day average $204.98—with the 12‑day EMA increasing at $376.49; the gap structure signals a bullish medium‑term bias but also exposes the market to pullbacks toward short‑term support near the SuperTrend lower band at $370.26 and the 20‑day average.

Bollinger bands place the close inside the upper band range (upper 1σ $413.11, lower 1σ $327.89), indicating price remains toward the upper volatility envelope but not yet beyond the 2σ extreme.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue for the period totaled $454,676,000 with YoY revenue growth of -18.16% and QoQ revenue growth of 1.92%, reflecting baseline contraction year-over-year but slight sequential recovery. Gross profit measured $95,118,000, with a gross margin of 20.92% (gross margin YoY change reported as -0.51%).

Operating performance stayed negative: EBIT -$66,911,000, operating income -$69,272,000 and operating margin -15.24%, with operating margin QoQ down -3.97 percentage points and YoY down -2.26 percentage points. Net income registered -$67,370,000 for the period.

Earnings per share came in at $0.32 versus an estimate of $0.34, generating an EPS surprise of -5.88% (EPS difference -$0.02). EBITDA reached $23,343,000, producing a modest positive EBITDA despite negative operating and net profitability.

Balance sheet and cash flow: cash and short‑term investments $685,803,000 and cash conversion ratio 33.32%, while free cash flow was negative at -$155,794,000. Liquidity ratios read high—current ratio 5.96 and quick ratio 5.12—supporting short‑term obligations. Total debt stands at $829,708,000 with net debt roughly $39,900,000, and debt‑to‑equity about 0.19x, indicating leverage present but not dominant relative to equity.

Key valuation multiples: price‑to‑book ~2.64x, trailing P/E ~732.23x, price‑to‑sales ~25.73x and forward P/E ~204.30x on forward EPS $1.08. WMDST values the stock as EVR = 26.05. Free cash flow dynamics show a negative free cash flow yield of -1.33% for the period, with free cash flow to net income of 2.31x reflecting episodic noncash items and timing differences.

Revenue growth showed divergence—sequential improvement offset by meaningful YoY contraction—while margins and net returns remain negative; cash on the balance sheet and stated liquidity provide a buffer amid ongoing integration and capital plans.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-07-31
REPORT DATE: 2025-09-09
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-12-23
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow $ 40.9 M
 Operating Cash Flow $ -123.73 M
 Capital Expenditures $ -32.07 M
 Change In Working Capital $ -170.41 M
 Dividends Paid —
 Cash Flow Delta $ 644.9 M
 End Period Cash Flow $ 685.8 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue $ 454.7 M
 Forward Revenue $ -90.99 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue $ 359.6 M
 Depreciation $ 90.3 M
 Depreciation and Amortization $ 90.3 M
 Research and Development $ 33.1 M
 Total Operating Expenses $ 523.9 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit $ 95.1 M
 EBITDA $ 23.3 M
 EBIT $ -66.91 M
 Operating Income $ -69.27 M
 Interest Income —
 Interest Expense $ 17.4 M
 Net Interest Income $ -17.41 M
 Income Before Tax $ -84.33 M
 Tax Provision $ -15.17 M
 Tax Rate 18.0 %
 Net Income $ -67.37 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations $ -67.37 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate $ 0.34
 EPS Actual $ 0.32
 EPS Difference $ -0.02
 EPS Surprise -5.882 %
 Forward EPS $ 1.08
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets $ 5.6 B
 Intangible Assets $ 3.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets $ 768.7 M
 Total Current Assets $ 1.6 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments $ 685.8 M
 Cash $ 685.8 M
 Net Receivables $ 198.3 M
 Inventory $ 232.9 M
 Long-Term Investments $ 42.7 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable $ 91.1 M
 Short-Term Debt —
 Total Current Liabilities $ 274.9 M
 Net Debt $ 39.9 M
 Total Debt $ 829.7 M
 Total Liabilities $ 1.2 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity $ 4.4 B
 Retained Earnings $ 206.9 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share $ 88.66
 Shares Outstanding 49.932 M
 Revenue Per-Share $ 9.11
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization $ 11.7 B
 Enterprise Value $ 11.8 B
 Enterprise Multiple 507.379
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 196.412 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 219.472 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA —
 EV/R 26.049
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.27
 Asset To Liability 4.699
 Debt To Capital 0.158
 Debt To Assets 0.148
Debt To Assets QoQ 157.155 %
Debt To Assets YoY 1373.826 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA —
 Debt To Equity 0.187
Debt To Equity QoQ 158.439 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1484.277 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA —
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.643
Price To Book QoQ -50.825 %
Price To Book YoY -56.202 %
Price To Book IPRWA —
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 732.232
Price To Earnings QoQ 599.461 %
Price To Earnings YoY 260.283 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA —
 PE/G Ratio -9.139
 Price To Sales (P/S) 25.732
Price To Sales QoQ 48.556 %
Price To Sales YoY -4.434 %
Price To Sales IPRWA —
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 204.302
Forward PE/G -2.55
Forward P/S -128.588
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -8.789
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.135
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -46.844 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -28.309 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
 Receivables Turnover 3.029
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.859 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -15.455 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
 Inventory Turnover 1.908
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 59.438 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 159.605 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 30.13
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 85.852
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -18.253 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -15.388 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA —
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.333
 CapEx To Revenue -0.071
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.355
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital $ 5.2 B
 Net Invested Capital $ 5.2 B
 Invested Capital $ 5.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets $ 768.7 M
 Net Working Capital $ 1.4 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 2.494
 Current Ratio 5.963
Current Ratio QoQ 69.254 %
Current Ratio YoY 39.858 %
Current Ratio IPRWA —
 Quick Ratio 5.116
Quick Ratio QoQ 90.456 %
Quick Ratio YoY 68.4 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA —
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 35.544
 Cost Of Debt 1.61 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -3.842
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -127.518 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -104.023 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA —
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.522
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 42.72
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio —
 Dividend Payout Ratio —
 Dividend Rate —
 Dividend Yield —
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 401.892 %
 Revenue Growth 65.307 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 1.921 %
Revenue Growth YoY -1816.347 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA —
 Earnings Growth -80.124 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -118.349 %
Earnings Growth YoY -174.898 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA —
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 20.92 %
Gross Margin QoQ -42.65 %
Gross Margin YoY -51.342 %
Gross Margin IPRWA —
 EBIT Margin -14.716 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -386.75 %
EBIT Margin YoY -222.165 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA —
 Return On Sales (ROS) -15.235 %
Return On Sales QoQ -396.863 %
Return On Sales YoY -226.474 %
Return On Sales IPRWA —
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) $ -155.79 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -1.332 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 623.913 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -396.659 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA —
 Free Cash Growth 1672.804 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -2478.879 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -894.923 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA —
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.313
 Cash Flow Margin -31.576 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.131
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added $ 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) -1.998 %
Return On Assets QoQ -229.993 %
Return On Assets YoY -195.098 %
Return On Assets IPRWA —
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -1.251 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.015
Return On Equity QoQ -180.957 %
Return On Equity YoY -160.807 %
Return On Equity IPRWA —
 DuPont ROE -2.536 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -1.065 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -170.343 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -96.445 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA —

Six-Week Outlook

Near term, expect constrained upside and higher propensity for consolidation: directional indicators and MACD peak signals point to fading bullish momentum even though price remains above short and medium moving averages. The SuperTrend lower band at $370.26 and the 20‑day average near $370 form the first structural support zone; failure to hold that zone would increase the chance of a deeper pullback toward the 50‑day average $285.79.

Momentum measures (MRO positive and rising, RSI peaked) support a scenario where price tests short‑term support and digests recent gains before resuming a trend aligned with longer‑term averages. Volatility remains muted relative to recent runs, so expect range contraction punctuated by event‑driven volatility tied to corporate updates or analyst commentary.

Technical setup therefore favors consolidation or a corrective retracement within the next six weeks, with any renewed upside requiring a re‑establishment of DI+ strength and a MACD momentum turn away from its peak‑and‑reverse pattern.

About AeroVironment, Inc.

AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV) designs and develops unmanned and robotic systems, providing innovative solutions to both governmental and commercial sectors worldwide. Headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, the company divides its operations into three main segments: UnCrewed Systems (UxS), Loitering Munition Systems (LMS), and MacCready Works (MW). AeroVironment delivers a comprehensive portfolio of cutting-edge technologies, including uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) and ground robots. The company supports the U.S. Department of Defense, federal agencies, and allied international governments with advanced airborne platforms, payload integration, and ground control systems. Beyond military applications, AeroVironment develops solutions like Mars Helicopters and high-altitude pseudo-satellite systems, demonstrating its expertise in aerospace technology. AeroVironment emphasizes delivering high-quality training, maintenance, and upgrade services, ensuring its clients benefit from reliable and efficient unmanned systems. By advancing autonomous aviation and robotics, AeroVironment continues to drive innovation and empower its clients with state-of-the-art technology.



© 2025 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.