Nu Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NU) Poised For Near-Term Pullback After Momentum Peak

Momentum and short-term breadth show signs of topping while valuation metrics sit well above peer averages, creating a bias toward consolidation in the weeks ahead.

Recent News

Aug 14, 2025 — Nu Holdings released Q2’25 results reporting revenue of $3.7 billion and net income of $637 million, with deposits rising to $36.6 billion and global customer count near 122.7 million. Jul 25, 2025 — Broker consensus reports an average 12‑month price objective around $15.50 and a mixed analyst mix of buy/hold/sell recommendations. Jul 20, 2025 — Market commentary flagged unusually high options call volume in a single session, with call purchases materially above typical levels.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX / DI+ / DI-): ADX at 30.2 signals a strong trend environment in place. DI+ decreasing while DI- increasing indicates the directional balance favors downside pressure; that directional shift amplifies the immediate negative bias against the current valuation.

MACD: MACD at 0.26 with a declining MACD_trend and a MACD signal at 0.43 shows momentum rolling over; MACD sits below its signal line, which aligns with weakening upside momentum and supports a near-term bearish tilt.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at 1.74 registers positive, which implies price sits above the model target and therefore carries a tendency to correct downward; the decreasing MRO_trend reinforces the probability of mean reversion toward the target implied by valuation indicators.

RSI and short-term overlays: RSI at 61.14 with a peak & reversal pattern signals a momentum top. The 12‑day EMA shows a peak & reversal while the close ($15.13) sits below short-term EMAs and the 20‑day average ($15.74), indicating short-term internals have lost upward conviction even as the price remains above the 50‑day ($14.35) and 200‑day ($12.57) averages. Price sits just below the 1x lower Bollinger band ($15.28), suggesting immediate compression after a recent run.

Volatility and breadth: 42‑day beta of 0.5 and low 42‑day volatility point to muted absolute swings, but above‑average daily volume relative to the 10‑day average confirms engagement; combined with the momentum rollover, this raises the probability of a contained pullback rather than a broad trend reversal.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability & earnings: EPS actual $0.13 matched the estimate ($0.13) with an EPS surprise of 2.39%. Net income totaled $636,838,000 and income before tax $879,362,000. Return on equity equals 6.65% and return on assets equals 1.09%; both sit above the industry peer mean (return on equity industry peer mean 3.37%, return on assets industry peer mean 0.24%), indicating comparatively stronger capital returns despite mixed growth signals.

Top line and growth: Total revenue registers $2,509,867,000 while reported revenue growth year‑over‑year equals 113.26% and revenue growth quarter‑over‑quarter equals 73.56% per the supplied metrics. Free cash flow stands at $2,484,309,000 with a free cash flow yield of 3.95%, and free cash flow growth at 147.73% year‑over‑year according to the provided figures.

Leverage and balance sheet: Total debt $573,458,000 produces a debt‑to‑assets ratio of 0.91%, well below the industry peer mean of 11.41% and the industry peer median; debt‑to‑equity equals 5.99%, also well below the industry peer mean (177.09%), highlighting notably low financial leverage versus peers.

Valuation multiples: Trailing PE stands at 96.42 and forward PE at 78.60, both above the industry peer mean (PE mean 43.84; forward PE mean 54.32). Price‑to‑sales equals 25.06 and price‑to‑book equals 6.57, each above the industry peer means. PEG ratio near 11.57 also exceeds the industry peer mean of 3.23. These multiple differentials indicate the market prices elevated future performance into the stock and leave limited margin for disappointment.

Short summary valuation: WMDST values the stock as over‑valued given elevated multiples versus peer means alongside the current momentum rollover and price sitting above the consensus mean target ($14.33), which together imply valuation‑sensitive downside risk.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-14
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-10
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 10.3 B
 Operating Cash Flow 2.6 B
 Capital Expenditures -70.38 M
 Change In Working Capital -2.01 B
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 3.0 B
 End Period Cash Flow 13.3 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 2.5 B
 Forward Revenue 738.0 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation 23.1 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 23.1 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA
 EBIT
 Operating Income
 Interest Income 3.1 B
 Interest Expense 1.0 B
 Net Interest Income 2.1 B
 Income Before Tax 879.4 M
 Tax Provision 242.4 M
 Tax Rate 27.563 %
 Net Income 636.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 637.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.13
 EPS Actual 0.13
 EPS Difference 0.00
 EPS Surprise 2.39 %
 Forward EPS 0.15
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 62.7 B
 Intangible Assets 924.6 M
 Net Tangible Assets 8.7 B
 Total Current Assets
 Cash and Short-Term Investments
 Cash 17.2 B
 Net Receivables 15.1 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 11.2 B
 Short-Term Debt 545.9 M
 Total Current Liabilities
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 573.5 M
 Total Liabilities 53.2 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 9.6 B
 Retained Earnings 4.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 1.98
 Shares Outstanding 4.832 B
 Revenue Per-Share 0.52
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 62.9 B
 Enterprise Value 63.5 B
 Enterprise Multiple
Enterprise Multiple QoQ
Enterprise Multiple YoY
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R 25.291
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 6.552
 Asset To Liability 1.18
 Debt To Capital 0.057
 Debt To Assets 0.009
Debt To Assets QoQ 30.946 %
Debt To Assets YoY 62.057 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.208
mean: 0.114
median: 0.107
low: 0.073
NU: 0.009
 Debt To Equity 0.06
Debt To Equity QoQ 36.299 %
Debt To Equity YoY 64.082 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 3.895
mean: 1.771
median: 1.44
low: 0.468
NU: 0.06
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 6.57
Price To Book QoQ 0.259 %
Price To Book YoY -21.288 %
Price To Book IPRWA NU: 6.57
high: 3.53
mean: 1.692
median: 1.534
low: 0.004
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 96.416
Price To Earnings QoQ -1.042 %
Price To Earnings YoY -4.117 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA NU: 96.416
high: 53.922
median: 45.53
mean: 43.836
low: 28.223
 PE/G Ratio 11.57
 Price To Sales (P/S) 25.063
Price To Sales QoQ 0.0 %
Price To Sales YoY -9.573 %
Price To Sales IPRWA NU: 25.063
high: 17.484
median: 12.268
mean: 11.657
low: 0.049
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 78.6
Forward PE/G 9.432
Forward P/S 85.238
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.043
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -0.694 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -8.737 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA NU: 0.043
high: 0.022
median: 0.01
mean: 0.009
low: 0.004
 Receivables Turnover 0.175
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.367 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 4.233 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 5.522
mean: 0.861
median: 0.37
low: 0.201
NU: 0.175
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 521.175
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio
 CapEx To Revenue -0.028
 CapEx To Depreciation -3.051
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 65.2 B
 Net Invested Capital 10.1 B
 Invested Capital 10.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets 8.7 B
 Net Working Capital
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio
Current Ratio QoQ
Current Ratio YoY
Current Ratio IPRWA
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA
 Cost Of Debt 156.796 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 15.754 %
 Revenue Growth 11.531 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 73.555 %
Revenue Growth YoY 113.261 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 25.77 %
NU: 11.531 %
mean: 0.768 %
median: -0.982 %
low: -10.715 %
 Earnings Growth 8.333 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -208.333 %
Earnings Growth YoY -75.001 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 36.667 %
NU: 8.333 %
mean: 7.044 %
median: 4.082 %
low: -13.816 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin
EBIT Margin QoQ
EBIT Margin YoY
EBIT Margin IPRWA
 Return On Sales (ROS)
Return On Sales QoQ
Return On Sales YoY
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 2.5 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 3.949 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 122.103 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -13.946 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.248 %
NU: 3.949 %
median: 3.765 %
mean: -0.456 %
low: -23.497 %
 Free Cash Growth 147.73 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -793.08 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -127.163 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA NU: 147.73 %
high: 31.211 %
mean: -84.382 %
median: -111.732 %
low: -390.766 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 3.901
 Cash Flow Margin 4.646 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.183
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.05
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.089 %
Return On Assets QoQ 1.776 %
Return On Assets YoY -0.91 %
Return On Assets IPRWA NU: 1.089 %
high: 0.724 %
median: 0.279 %
mean: 0.244 %
low: 0.12 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.067
Return On Equity QoQ 2.75 %
Return On Equity YoY -5.499 %
Return On Equity IPRWA NU: 0.067
high: 0.053
mean: 0.034
median: 0.033
low: 0.02
 DuPont ROE 7.004 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)
Return On Invested Capital QoQ
Return On Invested Capital YoY
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA

Six-Week Outlook

Short‑term bias favors consolidation and potential pullback. Momentum indicators show a peak and reversal while the MRO and RSI point toward mean reversion pressure; technical strength measured by ADX signals that any move could carry conviction, but the directional shift in DI+/DI- supports downside moves first. Fundamental multiples remain stretched relative to the industry peer mean, amplifying sensitivity to near‑term execution or macro surprises. Analysts’ mean price target ($14.33) sits below the current close ($15.13), creating an immediate reference for downside calibration. Expect range contraction with downside tests of short‑term support levels and continued monitoring of MACD, DI+/DI-, and MRO for any re-acceleration sign that would alter the bias.

About Nu Holdings Ltd.

Nu Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NU) develops a comprehensive digital banking platform serving markets in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Cayman Islands, Germany, Argentina, the United States, and Uruguay. The company provides a range of financial solutions, including the Nu credit and prepaid card, which functions as both a credit and prepaid card, and the Ultraviolet card, a premium option for affluent clients. Customers utilize mobile payment solutions through NuAccount for transactions such as transfers, bill payments, and everyday purchases. Nu Holdings also offers savings solutions via Nu Personal Accounts and business accounts tailored for entrepreneurs. Investment options include Money Boxes for goal-based investing, NuInvest for equities and fixed-income products, and NuCrypto for cryptocurrency transactions. The company facilitates borrowing through personal loans, Pix financing for peer-to-peer transfers, and Boleto financing for credit line payments. NuPay enables online purchases via the Nubank app, while NuInsurance provides a suite of protection options, covering life, mobile, auto, home, and financial insurance. Founded in 2013, Nu Holdings is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil, and continues to expand its digital financial services across multiple countries.



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