Cava Group, Inc. (NYSE:CAVA) Accelerates Unit Growth Despite Near-Term Sales Headwinds

CAVA continues rapid expansion while headline operating momentum softens; valuation and mixed technicals point to pressured near-term price action despite upside potential from mean-reversion mechanics.

Recent News

On September 26, CAVA announced a downtown Detroit restaurant opening as part of continued market entry in Michigan. Earlier in September the company opened a location in Shelton, Connecticut, joining a series of new restaurants launched across 2025. Multiple openings in Pittsburgh and Indianapolis occurred in August and early August, and the company released brand tie-ins and merchandising initiatives in early August. These items emphasize unit growth and retail/brand activity rather than changes to fiscal guidance or capital structure.

Technical Analysis

ADX registers at 38.39, indicating a strong trend; directional indicators show DI- at 28.66 with a dip-and-reversal (bearish signal) while DI+ sits at 13.48 with a dip-and-reversal (bullish signal). The combination of a high ADX with both directional lines active implies a strong directional contest that currently favors negative directional pressure.

MACD reads -$2.74 with the MACD line above the signal line (-$3.26), and the MACD trend shows increasing momentum — the MACD crossing above its signal line constitutes a bullish momentum shift even while the oscillator remains negative. That suggests momentum attempting a recovery from prior weakness rather than an established bullish run.

MRO stands at -34.36, which indicates price sitting materially below the regression target and therefore a statistical tendency for upward pressure toward that target; the magnitude signals a noticeable mean-reversion potential.

RSI at 38.61 with a peak-and-reversal pattern points to recent selling pressure and stalled momentum; the reading sits above classical oversold thresholds but signals limited buying conviction.

Price sits at $62.61 below the 20-day average ($63.97), 50-day average ($74.07) and 200-day average ($92.71), with the 12-day EMA decreasing; Ichimoku Tenkan ($64.13) and Kijun ($65.67) both sit above current price, and the super trend upper band registers at $67.66. These relationships frame near-term resistance between roughly $64–$68 while exposing the stock to continued downside unless price recaptures shorter-term averages. Bollinger band positioning places price close to the lower band, increasing the odds of a technical bounce back toward the mid-range if volatility compresses.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Q2 results delivered adjusted EPS of $0.16 versus an estimate of $0.14, producing an EPS surprise of 14.29%. Total revenue reported at $280,615,000; commentary and filings released in August showed a slowdown in same-restaurant sales growth and an updated same-restaurant sales outlook, which corresponded with a sizable intraday market reaction.

Operating performance shows EBIT of $25,815,000 and EBITDA of $42,630,000, producing an EBIT margin of 9.20%. That EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean (approximately 14.46%) and below the industry peer median (approximately 12.67%), placing operating profitability on the lower side of peer comparatives. Capital expenditures totaled -$41,119,000 for the period; operating cash flow reached $60,318,000 with free cash flow of $19,199,000 and free cash flow yield near 0.21%, indicating limited cash yield relative to market value.

Top-line dynamics show YoY revenue growth of -15.43% and QoQ revenue growth of -133.61%, while earnings growth YoY registered -173.04% and QoQ -54.35%. Receivables and inventory turns run high (receivables turnover 37.66; inventory turnover 26.97), supporting strong working-capital turns; current ratio and quick ratio sit at 2.72 and 2.67 respectively, providing ample near-term liquidity. Debt metrics include total debt of $433,837,000 with debt-to-equity of 0.58 and debt-to-EBITDA of 10.18, underscoring a leverage profile that compresses coverage relative to operating cash.

Price multiples look extended: P/E about 541.6x, price-to-sales near 33.02x, and price-to-book roughly 12.34x—WMDST values the stock as over-valued. Enterprise value tallies $9,313,907,027 with an enterprise multiple of 218.48, reinforcing an elevated market valuation relative to cash-flow generation and operating margins. Use of industry peer mean and median comparisons appears where provided; no peer-sector valuation comparison beyond those metrics applies.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-12
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-19
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 289.4 M
 Operating Cash Flow 60.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -41.12 M
 Change In Working Capital 15.1 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 822.0 K
 End Period Cash Flow 290.2 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 280.6 M
 Forward Revenue 55.4 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 205.9 M
 Depreciation 16.8 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 16.8 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 254.8 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 74.7 M
 EBITDA 42.6 M
 EBIT 25.8 M
 Operating Income 25.8 M
 Interest Income 3.6 M
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income 3.6 M
 Income Before Tax 23.7 M
 Tax Provision 5.3 M
 Tax Rate 22.5 %
 Net Income 18.4 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 18.4 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.14
 EPS Actual 0.16
 EPS Difference 0.02
 EPS Surprise 14.286 %
 Forward EPS 0.12
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.3 B
 Intangible Assets 3.5 M
 Net Tangible Assets 747.2 M
 Total Current Assets 418.5 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 385.8 M
 Cash 290.2 M
 Net Receivables 7.6 M
 Inventory 8.0 M
 Long-Term Investments 12.2 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 33.6 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 153.7 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 433.8 M
 Total Liabilities 540.9 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 750.7 M
 Retained Earnings -273.27 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 6.47
 Shares Outstanding 115.952 M
 Revenue Per-Share 2.42
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 9.3 B
 Enterprise Value 9.3 B
 Enterprise Multiple 218.482
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -15.855 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -27.696 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA CAVA: 218.482
high: 196.872
mean: 125.868
median: 112.669
low: -54.215
 EV/R 33.191
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.721
 Asset To Liability 2.388
 Debt To Capital 0.366
 Debt To Assets 0.336
Debt To Assets QoQ 0.021 %
Debt To Assets YoY 325.057 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.328
mean: 0.429
median: 0.349
CAVA: 0.336
low: 0.145
 Debt To Equity 0.578
Debt To Equity QoQ 1.738 %
Debt To Equity YoY 322.627 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 5.238
median: 1.542
mean: 0.653
CAVA: 0.578
low: -1.9
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 12.343
Price To Book QoQ -18.783 %
Price To Book YoY -26.669 %
Price To Book IPRWA CAVA: 12.343
high: 7.503
mean: 4.349
median: 3.493
low: -1.247
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 541.61
Price To Earnings QoQ 24.266 %
Price To Earnings YoY 7.379 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA CAVA: 541.61
high: 339.298
median: 246.702
mean: 216.733
low: -186.596
 PE/G Ratio -17.796
 Price To Sales (P/S) 33.02
Price To Sales QoQ -0.716 %
Price To Sales YoY -12.516 %
Price To Sales IPRWA CAVA: 33.02
high: 20.084
median: 20.084
mean: 12.455
low: 0.25
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 685.347
Forward PE/G -22.518
Forward P/S 167.382
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -1.173
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.223
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -19.527 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -13.574 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.466
median: 0.248
CAVA: 0.223
mean: 0.219
low: 0.119
 Receivables Turnover 37.656
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -31.536 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -19.877 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 149.802
CAVA: 37.656
mean: 21.501
median: 11.024
low: 3.605
 Inventory Turnover 26.965
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -19.027 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -12.214 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 66.413
CAVA: 26.965
mean: 16.127
median: 7.335
low: 0.888
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 2.423
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -5.739
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -26.891 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 36.395 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 9.181
median: 5.409
mean: 3.039
CAVA: -5.739
low: -18.761
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.06
 CapEx To Revenue -0.147
 CapEx To Depreciation -2.445
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 750.7 M
 Net Invested Capital 750.7 M
 Invested Capital 750.7 M
 Net Tangible Assets 747.2 M
 Net Working Capital 264.8 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 2.51
 Current Ratio 2.723
Current Ratio QoQ -9.278 %
Current Ratio YoY -13.899 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 4.669
CAVA: 2.723
mean: 2.391
median: 1.637
low: 0.258
 Quick Ratio 2.671
Quick Ratio QoQ -9.374 %
Quick Ratio YoY -14.004 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA CAVA: 2.671
high: 1.799
median: 1.423
mean: 1.128
low: 0.155
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 10.177
 Cost Of Debt
 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.272
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 10.975
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 5.151 %
 Revenue Growth -15.433 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -133.605 %
Revenue Growth YoY
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 19.65 %
mean: 8.616 %
median: 5.876 %
low: -2.737 %
CAVA: -15.433 %
 Earnings Growth -30.435 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -54.348 %
Earnings Growth YoY -173.043 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 85.714 %
median: 63.636 %
mean: 39.442 %
CAVA: -30.435 %
low: -40.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 26.613 %
Gross Margin QoQ 5.053 %
Gross Margin YoY 5.452 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 57.761 %
median: 39.607 %
mean: 37.437 %
CAVA: 26.613 %
low: -11.149 %
 EBIT Margin 9.199 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 39.654 %
EBIT Margin YoY 67.743 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 25.947 %
mean: 14.462 %
median: 12.668 %
CAVA: 9.199 %
low: -30.075 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 9.199 %
Return On Sales QoQ 39.654 %
Return On Sales YoY 67.743 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 25.947 %
mean: 14.791 %
median: 13.145 %
CAVA: 9.199 %
low: -10.902 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 19.2 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.207 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 762.5 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 331.25 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.389 %
median: 0.427 %
mean: 0.371 %
CAVA: 0.207 %
low: -11.081 %
 Free Cash Growth 610.548 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 2080.84 %
Free Cash Growth YoY
Free Cash Growth IPRWA CAVA: 610.548 %
high: 576.003 %
median: -145.027 %
mean: -206.824 %
low: -511.746 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.045
 Cash Flow Margin 14.873 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.272
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.458 %
Return On Assets QoQ -31.996 %
Return On Assets YoY 4.741 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.018 %
mean: 1.986 %
median: 1.75 %
CAVA: 1.458 %
low: -6.328 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.269 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.024
Return On Equity QoQ -30.876 %
Return On Equity YoY 1.577 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.137
median: 0.04
CAVA: 0.024
mean: 0.018
low: -0.257
 DuPont ROE 2.488 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.665 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 12.069 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -147.709 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.642 %
median: 5.572 %
mean: 4.861 %
CAVA: 2.665 %
low: -15.429 %

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum indicators point toward a potential stabilization attempt: MACD crossing above its signal and a strongly negative MRO support upside mean reversion pressure. Countervailing forces include a high ADX with DI- strength, price below key moving averages, a sub-45 RSI that recently peaked and reversed, and short-term resistance clustered near $64–$68. The balance of signals suggests price may trade within a lower-to-mid range channel while attempting periodic technical rebounds toward short-term averages; failure to reclaim those averages would likely maintain downward bias given the elevated valuation and recent sales momentum weakness. Volume sits near recent averages, reducing the signal of dramatic directional conviction at present.

About Cava Group, Inc.

CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE:CAVA) develops a vibrant fast-casual dining experience centered around Mediterranean-inspired cuisine. Established in 2006 and headquartered in Washington, D.C., CAVA has grown its presence across the United States, offering a menu that features customizable bowls, salads, and pitas. Utilizing bold flavors and fresh ingredients, CAVA caters to a wide range of dietary preferences, providing nutritious options for its customers. In addition to its restaurant offerings, CAVA expands its brand into retail by producing a variety of dips, spreads, and dressings available in grocery stores nationwide. This allows customers to enjoy CAVA’s distinctive flavors at home. The company enhances customer convenience by integrating technology through online and mobile ordering platforms, streamlining the dining experience for those on the move. CAVA prioritizes quality and sustainability by sourcing ingredients responsibly and maintaining environmentally conscious practices. As a prominent entity in the fast-casual dining sector, CAVA continues to attract a community of food enthusiasts who appreciate its modern approach to Mediterranean cuisine, emphasizing flavor, health, and ease.



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