BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. (NASDAQ:BJRI) Signals Near-Term Upside After ADX Strength

BJ's Restaurants shows a technical setup that favors a near-term rebound while fundamentals present a mixed but improving profitability profile; WMDST values the stock as under-valued.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 34.74 indicates a strong directional environment supporting a pronounced move rather than choppiness; that strength lends credibility to momentum-based reversals in the coming weeks.

DI+ registered a dip-and-reversal, a bullish directional read that signals renewed upside pressure. DI- produced a peak-and-reversal, also a bullish read since DI- turning lower removes prior downside dominance. Together, those trend signals favor a short-to-intermediate uptick in directional bias.

MACD sits negative at -1.37 yet shows a dip-and-reversal, which implies bearish momentum has slowed and momentum may shift upward even while the oscillator remains below zero. MACD equals its signal line, so no confirmed crossover occurred; momentum improvement appears constructive but not yet fully confirmed by a signal-line cross.

MRO reads -0.24, placing the price modestly below a model target and indicating potential upward pressure as the oscillator reverses. The MRO dip-and-reversal therefore aligns with momentum measures that favor a corrective advance toward valuation anchors.

RSI at 35.94 completed a dip-and-reversal from oversold territory, suggesting short-term buying interest as downside momentum eases. Price sits near the lower Bollinger band ($29.71 lower 1x), which supports the case for a mean-reversion attempt toward the $32–$34 short-band area.

Price relationships remain mixed: the close at $30.63 trades below the 20-day average $31.20, 50-day average $34.52, and 200-day average $36.91, while the 12-day EMA trending downward indicates the short-term trend carried recent weakness. Volume at 752,710 runs above the 10-day average (551,243) and 200-day average (436,434), signaling higher participation on the recent price base and validating the observed technical reversals.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability shows material improvement: EBIT margin stands at 6.83% with QoQ expansion of +59.64% and YoY improvement of +49.48%, reflecting stronger operating leverage. Operating margin registers 5.86% with QoQ +36.85% and YoY +28.14%, reinforcing a sequential recovery in core margins.

Net income reached $22,208,000 while EBIT produced $24,975,000 and EBITDA $43,711,000, all indicating operating cash generation; operating cash flow equals $62,279,000 and free cash flow reached $41,906,000. Free cash flow yield calculates to 5.04%, above the industry peer mean of 0.99%, providing relative cash-return strength versus peers.

Revenue totaled $365,597,000. Revenue growth registered 5.07% on the aggregate measure, with YoY revenue growth reading 35.68%, signaling meaningful top-line expansion on a year-over-year basis alongside more modest period-to-period change.

Earnings metrics show a beat: EPS actual $0.97 versus estimate $0.72, a $0.25 beat representing a +34.72% surprise. Reported earnings growth stands at +64.41% overall with QoQ jump of +152.26%, although the YoY earnings growth figure reports -48.47%, so timing and base effects shape the headline numbers; treat each percentage relative to its labeled period.

Leverage and liquidity present contrasts. Total debt equals $477,659,000 producing debt-to-EBITDA of 10.93x and debt-to-equity of 1.24x; interest coverage at 19.63x provides ample coverage on current earnings. Current ratio at 0.38 and quick ratio at 0.32 sit well below the industry peer mean current ratio of 1.02, indicating lean short-term liquidity and negative net working capital driven by $117,392,000 in net working capital shortfall.

Valuation multiples show elevated forward expectations versus trailing results: trailing P/E about 42.12 and forward P/E near 109.03, while price-to-book sits at 2.15. Enterprise value totals $1,283,623,793 with an enterprise multiple of 29.37. WMDST values the stock as under-valued, a valuation judgment that takes the company’s improving margins, positive free cash flow yield, and current market price into account.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-07-31
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-10-30
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 19.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 62.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -20.37 M
 Change In Working Capital 11.2 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 7.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 26.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 365.6 M
 Forward Revenue 34.2 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 303.5 M
 Depreciation 18.7 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 18.7 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 344.2 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 62.1 M
 EBITDA 43.7 M
 EBIT 25.0 M
 Operating Income 21.4 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 1.3 M
 Net Interest Income -1.27 M
 Income Before Tax 23.7 M
 Tax Provision 1.5 M
 Tax Rate 6.307 %
 Net Income 22.2 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 22.2 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.72
 EPS Actual 0.97
 EPS Difference 0.25
 EPS Surprise 34.722 %
 Forward EPS 0.38
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.0 B
 Intangible Assets 4.7 M
 Net Tangible Assets 381.9 M
 Total Current Assets 72.6 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 26.0 M
 Cash 26.0 M
 Net Receivables 17.9 M
 Inventory 12.5 M
 Long-Term Investments 43.6 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 50.0 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 190.0 M
 Net Debt 34.5 M
 Total Debt 477.7 M
 Total Liabilities 638.7 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 386.6 M
 Retained Earnings 313.4 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 17.43
 Shares Outstanding 22.181 M
 Revenue Per-Share 16.48
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 831.9 M
 Enterprise Value 1.3 B
 Enterprise Multiple 29.366
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -22.132 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 15.87 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 115.782
mean: 73.869
median: 71.611
BJRI: 29.366
low: -56.203
 EV/R 3.511
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.652
 Asset To Liability 1.605
 Debt To Capital 0.553
 Debt To Assets 0.466
Debt To Assets QoQ -6.205 %
Debt To Assets YoY 653.518 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.647
median: 0.724
mean: 0.699
BJRI: 0.466
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 1.236
Debt To Equity QoQ -9.389 %
Debt To Equity YoY 639.733 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 10.498
BJRI: 1.236
median: -1.551
mean: -4.619
low: -20.242
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.152
Price To Book QoQ 4.752 %
Price To Book YoY 1.773 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 19.124
median: 3.747
BJRI: 2.152
mean: -0.316
low: -25.016
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 42.119
Price To Earnings QoQ -26.947 %
Price To Earnings YoY -14.145 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 289.09
mean: 101.265
median: 95.392
BJRI: 42.119
low: -27.296
 PE/G Ratio 0.654
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.276
Price To Sales QoQ 3.751 %
Price To Sales YoY -2.57 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 31.824
mean: 18.35
median: 16.293
BJRI: 2.276
low: 0.286
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 109.028
Forward PE/G 1.693
Forward P/S 24.302
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 13.375
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.358
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 5.878 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 6.725 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.621
BJRI: 0.358
mean: 0.199
median: 0.147
low: 0.02
 Receivables Turnover 21.354
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -11.541 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -6.082 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 42.739
BJRI: 21.354
mean: 8.249
median: 4.375
low: 0.692
 Inventory Turnover 24.451
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 5.057 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 11.308 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 63.048
median: 54.358
mean: 37.396
BJRI: 24.451
low: 0.492
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 4.273
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -2.829
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -18.248 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -65.058 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 60.416
median: 4.8
mean: 2.187
BJRI: -2.829
low: -59.918
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -3.114
 CapEx To Revenue -0.056
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.087
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 447.1 M
 Net Invested Capital 447.1 M
 Invested Capital 447.1 M
 Net Tangible Assets 381.9 M
 Net Working Capital -117.39 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.137
 Current Ratio 0.382
Current Ratio QoQ -1.958 %
Current Ratio YoY 9.261 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.698
mean: 1.018
median: 1.012
BJRI: 0.382
low: 0.137
 Quick Ratio 0.316
Quick Ratio QoQ 0.601 %
Quick Ratio YoY 16.435 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.654
median: 1.178
mean: 1.042
BJRI: 0.316
low: 0.106
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 10.928
 Cost Of Debt 0.242 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 19.634
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 62.203 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 54.566 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 46.029
BJRI: 19.634
mean: 8.998
median: 6.755
low: -26.646
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.362
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 10.976
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.529 %
 Revenue Growth 5.065 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 380.095 %
Revenue Growth YoY 35.682 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 52.655 %
median: 14.912 %
mean: 13.687 %
BJRI: 5.065 %
low: -34.396 %
 Earnings Growth 64.407 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 152.26 %
Earnings Growth YoY -48.474 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 214.286 %
BJRI: 64.407 %
mean: 24.357 %
median: 19.476 %
low: -246.809 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 16.991 %
Gross Margin QoQ 6.36 %
Gross Margin YoY 9.662 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 82.429 %
mean: 42.133 %
median: 41.612 %
BJRI: 16.991 %
low: -15.915 %
 EBIT Margin 6.831 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 59.64 %
EBIT Margin YoY 49.475 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 47.508 %
mean: 26.313 %
median: 24.865 %
BJRI: 6.831 %
low: -17.348 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 5.856 %
Return On Sales QoQ 36.854 %
Return On Sales YoY 28.14 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 47.655 %
mean: 25.714 %
median: 24.801 %
BJRI: 5.856 %
low: -15.426 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 41.9 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 5.037 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -418.797 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 5496.667 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.323 %
BJRI: 5.037 %
mean: 0.99 %
median: 0.675 %
low: -3.222 %
 Free Cash Growth -447.422 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 153.432 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -798.42 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 178.828 %
median: -33.191 %
mean: -61.598 %
low: -342.665 %
BJRI: -447.422 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.887
 Cash Flow Margin 18.828 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 3.1
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 2.172 %
Return On Assets QoQ 65.928 %
Return On Assets YoY 32.197 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.107 %
mean: 2.936 %
median: 2.755 %
BJRI: 2.172 %
low: -4.298 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.99 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.057
Return On Equity QoQ 58.177 %
Return On Equity YoY 29.421 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.488
BJRI: 0.057
median: 0.037
mean: 0.011
low: -0.628
 DuPont ROE 5.859 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.234 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 62.648 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -79.961 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 16.565 %
mean: 7.209 %
median: 6.805 %
BJRI: 5.234 %
low: -8.237 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical combination favors a corrective advance: strong ADX supports directional follow-through, DI+/DI- reversals plus MACD and RSI dip-and-reversals imply momentum recovery, and MRO below zero suggests upside potential toward the mid-$30s. Price near lower Bollinger band and above-average volume retail an organized low that swing traders might watch for a sustained move. Headline valuation anchors: price target mean $33.37 with a wide analyst range to $52.44 on the upside and $19.18 on the downside; the near-term bias aligns with a test of the price target mean while longer resistance lies near the 50-day average at $34.52 and the 200-day at $36.91.

About BJ’s Restaurants, Inc.

BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. (NASDAQ:BJRI) delivers a distinctive dining experience in the American casual dining sector. Established in 1978 and based in Huntington Beach, California, BJ’s Restaurants have built a reputation for their inviting atmosphere and diverse culinary offerings. The company crafts a menu that includes its signature deep-dish pizzas, a variety of entrees, and their renowned Pizookie dessert. BJ’s places a strong emphasis on quality ingredients and innovative dishes to cater to a wide range of palates. Beyond food, BJ’s Restaurants also brew a selection of handcrafted beers in-house, enhancing the dining experience with unique beverage options. This dedication to craft beer complements their culinary offerings and attracts beer enthusiasts. BJ’s Restaurants consistently expand their presence across the United States, adapting to changing consumer preferences while maintaining a commitment to exceptional service. The company creates family-friendly environments that appeal to a broad audience, including families, friends, and food lovers. Through their focus on quality, innovation, and customer satisfaction, BJ’s Restaurants continue to thrive in the competitive casual dining landscape.



© 2025 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.