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On September 15, 2026 Ocular Therapeutix announced a positive pre‑NDA meeting with the U.S. FDA for AXPAXLI (OTX‑TKI), confirming alignment on an NDA built on SOL‑1 Week‑52 efficacy/safety plus interim SOL‑R safety data. On September 1 the company detailed participation in multiple investor and scientific conferences in September–October; the firm also issued inducement equity grants most recently effective September 14. The company filed its Form 10‑Q covering the quarter ended June 30, 2026 in early August.
Technical Analysis
Directional indicators show emerging trend strength (ADX 26.07) while DI‑ at 26.88 increasing signals a bearish directional bias; DI+ at 13.88 decreasing reinforces that downside pressure currently dominates valuation risk and short‑term price bias.
MACD sits negative at −0.64 and trends lower with the MACD below its signal (MACD signal −0.46), indicating bearish momentum and limited immediate bullish momentum to support a sustained rally into the near term.
MRO reads −19.63 and shows a dip‑and‑reversal, which signals the price sits below modeled target and implies upside potential from current levels if momentum confirms a continuation of the reversal toward fair value.
RSI at 36.11 and decreasing indicates the equity trades toward the lower momentum band without entering extreme oversold levels; the reading supports the view of continued near‑term weakness but leaves room for mean reversion if selling pressure eases.
Price sits below short‑ and medium‑term averages (close $10.14 vs 20‑day average $11.06, 50‑day $11.99 and 200‑day $20.62), placing the security on the defensive versus moving averages; Bollinger band lower boundaries ($10.00–$8.94) bracket near‑term support, while upper targets remain remote relative to the 200‑day average.
Fundamental Analysis
EPS arrived at −$0.16 versus an estimate of −$0.38, producing a positive EPS surprise of 57.9%, which reduces short‑term downside versus expectations and supports the company’s stated cash runway assumptions. EBITDA and EBIT both reflect operating losses (EBITDA −$9.48M; EBIT −$9.66M) and net loss of −$9.97M for the period ending 06/30/2026, with R&D expense of $15.28M consistent with late‑stage trial investment.
Liquidity stands out: cash and short‑term investments total $228.3M and the cash ratio equals 8.18 with a current ratio of 8.35; the current ratio exceeds the industry peer mean of 3.00 and industry peer median of 1.27, indicating materially higher near‑term liquidity relative to peers. Operating cash flow remained negative (−$11.605M) and free cash flow was −$20.248M, producing a free cash flow yield of −2.32%.
Balance sheet leverage remains minimal: total debt $2.543M, debt‑to‑assets 0.01 and debt‑to‑equity 0.0116, all well below typical peer leverage. Book value per share $3.95 and P/B ratio $3.98 sit below the industry peer mean $8.20 and median $6.33; quarter‑over‑quarter P/B change −51.89% and year‑over‑year P/B change −39.63% reflect valuation compression versus the prior periods.
Revenue did not grow for the reporting period (reported revenue growth −100% in the dataset), while earnings growth metrics show mixed signals (earnings growth −67.35% QoQ, but an earnings growth YoY of 132.34% in the provided figures). Research investment and late‑stage trial progress drive current losses but support the company’s development pathway noted in recent regulatory communications.
WMDST values the stock as under‑valued based on the combination of robust liquidity, low leverage, and development‑stage optionality tempered by negative operating cash flow and compressed valuation multiples.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2026-06-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2026-08-06 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-11-05 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 64.6 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ -11.61 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -14.00 K | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ -3.27 M | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ -2.95 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 61.6 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | — | |
| Forward Revenue | — | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | — | |
| Depreciation | $ 178.0 K | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 178.0 K | |
| Research and Development | $ 15.3 M | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 23.6 M | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | — | |
| EBITDA | $ -9.48 M | |
| EBIT | $ -9.65 M | |
| Operating Income | $ -23.57 M | |
| Interest Income | $ 592.0 K | |
| Interest Expense | $ 309.0 K | |
| Net Interest Income | $ 283.0 K | |
| Income Before Tax | $ -9.96 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 6.0 K | |
| Tax Rate | 40.0 % | |
| Net Income | $ -9.97 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ -9.96 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ -0.38 | |
| EPS Actual | $ -0.16 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.22 | |
| EPS Surprise | 57.895 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ -0.50 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 250.3 M | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 13.3 M | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 206.0 M | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 233.1 M | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 228.3 M | |
| Cash | $ 61.6 M | |
| Net Receivables | — | |
| Inventory | — | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 847.0 K | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 2.7 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 27.9 M | |
| Net Debt | — | |
| Total Debt | $ 2.5 M | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 31.0 M | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 219.3 M | |
| Retained Earnings | $ -423.34 M | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 3.95 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 55.528 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | — | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 872.9 M |
| Enterprise Value | $ 647.1 M | |
| Enterprise Multiple | -68.279 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | 38.933 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | 118.628 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 85.287 mean: 10.265 median: -0.683 OCS: -68.279 low: -121.71 |
|
| EV/R | — | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 1.141 | |
| Asset To Liability | 8.076 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.011 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.01 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | 10.315 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 79.189 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 1.088 mean: 0.143 median: 0.018 OCS: 0.01 low: 0.0 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 0.012 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | 1.4 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 60.972 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 1.783 mean: 0.136 median: 0.037 OCS: 0.012 low: -1.043 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 3.98 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -51.886 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | -39.629 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 19.973 mean: 8.198 median: 6.334 OCS: 3.98 low: -9.25 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | -98.246 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | 78.737 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | 163.074 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 76.582 mean: -2.521 median: -19.402 OCS: -98.246 low: -123.087 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | 1.459 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | — | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | — | |
| Price To Sales YoY | — | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | — | |
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | -39.278 | |
| Forward PE/G | 0.583 | |
| Forward P/S | — | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | — | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | — | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Receivables Turnover | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Inventory Turnover | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | — | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 1252.713 median: 197.717 mean: 178.377 OCS: 0 low: -771.823 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | — | |
| CapEx To Revenue | — | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -0.079 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 219.3 M | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 219.3 M | |
| Invested Capital | $ 219.3 M | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 206.0 M | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 205.1 M | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 8.177 | |
| Current Ratio | 8.347 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 61.257 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | 83.538 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 31.351 OCS: 8.347 mean: 3.001 median: 1.265 low: 0.026 |
|
| Quick Ratio | — | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | — | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | -0.268 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 7.74 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | -31.246 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | -81.216 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -77.324 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 672.667 mean: -15.958 OCS: -31.246 median: -59.087 low: -1866.8 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | -0.416 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | — | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | 2.599 % | |
| Revenue Growth | -100.0 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -0.0 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -0.0 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 330.841 % mean: 15.757 % median: 14.284 % OCS: -100.0 % low: -242.388 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | -67.347 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -504.074 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | 132.343 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 168.75 % median: 10.526 % mean: 10.084 % OCS: -67.347 % low: -155.294 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | — | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | — | |
| Gross Margin YoY | — | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | — | |
| EBIT Margin | — | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | — | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | — | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | — | |
| Return On Sales (ROS) | — | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | — | |
| Return On Sales YoY | — | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | — | |
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ -20.25 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | -2.32 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | 146.023 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | 26.018 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 29.465 % median: 0.852 % mean: 0.262 % OCS: -2.32 % low: -49.548 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | 31.96 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -488.619 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -337.922 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 185.644 % OCS: 31.96 % median: 24.96 % mean: 20.841 % low: -209.632 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 2.031 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | — | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 1.164 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.04 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | -4.034 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | -66.448 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -69.335 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 34.781 % OCS: -4.034 % mean: -8.876 % median: -13.258 % low: -66.894 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | -4.341 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | -0.045 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | -69.016 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -74.364 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.746 OCS: -0.045 mean: -0.177 median: -0.259 low: -1.213 |
|
| DuPont ROE | — | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | -2.641 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | -81.891 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -84.999 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 37.515 % median: 3.876 % mean: -0.771 % OCS: -2.641 % low: -47.859 % |
|