Arm Holdings Plc (NASDAQ:ARM) Momentum Reversal Suggests Near-Term Upside

Bullish directional and momentum indicators point to a near-term bounce, while valuation metrics remain stretched. Liquidity and cash generation support operational flexibility despite recent revenue and free‑cash declines.

Recent News

On July 1, 2026 Arm completed the acquisition of DreamBig for approximately $265.0 million in cash. The company has expanded its compute platform into production silicon, describing the Arm AGI CPU as a production silicon product with production expected by the end of calendar 2026. Arm’s newsroom and partner announcements through July–August highlighted ecosystem deployments and partner platforms using Arm-based CPUs for AI infrastructure and edge applications.

Technical Analysis

ADX (16.88) indicates no established trend strength, so directional signals carry limited conviction for sustained moves.

DI+ at 34.21 with a dip-and-reversal signals bullish directional pressure, while DI– at 20.96 with a peak-and-reversal also signals reduced downside pressure; together they suggest a bullish initiation without confirmed trend strength.

MACD at 2.30 sits above its signal line at −4.05, reflecting a bullish momentum crossover and a dip-and-reversal in momentum.

MRO at 25.48 and rising places the market price above the model target, implying heightened mean‑reversion risk even as momentum builds.

RSI at 50.39 with a dip-and-reversal shows momentum recovery from a prior pullback rather than overbought exhaustion.

Price behavior favors the bulls on moving averages: the close at $322.90 exceeds the 50‑day average ($261.05) and the 200‑day average ($208.22), while the close sits above the 2× Bollinger upper band ($308.27), increasing the chance of a short corrective move before a continuation. Elevated short‑term volatility, shown by a 42‑day beta of 4.49 and a 52‑week beta of 3.46, magnifies swing risk.

Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue for the period reached $1,289,000,000 with YoY revenue change at −10.95% and QoQ revenue growth at −167.56%, indicating sequential softness. Net income of $270,000,000 produces an approximate net margin of 20.95%, which supports cash flow despite top‑line contraction.

EBIT of $98,000,000 yields an EBIT margin of 7.60%, well below the industry peer mean of 63.35% and the industry peer median of 60.34%, which compresses valuation support relative to higher‑margin peers.

EPS came in at $0.45 versus an estimate of $0.40, a $0.05 beat and a 12.50% EPS surprise, providing a near‑term earnings beat signal for fundamentals-driven traders.

Free cash flow totaled $694,000,000, but free‑cash‑flow growth shows decline: QoQ fell 51.72% and YoY fell 62.65%, reducing near‑term cash growth momentum. Free‑cash‑flow yield at 0.23% sits below the industry peer mean of 1.87%.

Liquidity and leverage present a favorable profile: cash and short‑term investments total $3,888,000,000 and the current ratio registers 5.25x, above the industry peer mean current ratio of 2.72x; total debt equals $464,000,000 with a debt‑to‑assets ratio of 4.14%, below the industry peer mean of 11.97%.

Growth and profitability trends show deterioration: YoY earnings growth stands negative at approximately −31.25% and operating margin contracted QoQ by −74.25%, both weighing on fundamental upside despite product expansion into production silicon and strategic M&A activity.

Valuation remains elevated. Price multiples show a trailing P/E of 634.08 and a P/S of 235.54, while enterprise value metrics (EVR 232.88, enterprise multiple 1,735.19) highlight significant premium pricing relative to cash flow and earnings. The current valuation as determined by WMDST: over‑valued.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-07-29
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-10-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 2.8 B
 Operating Cash Flow 902.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -208.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 389.0 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 307.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 3.1 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.3 B
 Forward Revenue 973.5 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 36.0 M
 Depreciation 75.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 75.0 M
 Research and Development 838.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 1.2 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.3 B
 EBITDA 173.0 M
 EBIT 98.0 M
 Operating Income 98.0 M
 Interest Income 31.0 M
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income 31.0 M
 Income Before Tax 253.0 M
 Tax Provision -17.00 M
 Tax Rate 40.0 %
 Net Income 270.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 270.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.40
 EPS Actual 0.45
 EPS Difference 0.05
 EPS Surprise 12.5 %
 Forward EPS 0.76
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 11.2 B
 Intangible Assets 1.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets 6.8 B
 Total Current Assets 6.3 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 3.9 B
 Cash 3.1 B
 Net Receivables 1.1 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 246.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 1.2 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 464.0 M
 Total Liabilities 2.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 8.6 B
 Retained Earnings 4.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 8.11
 Shares Outstanding 1.068 B
 Revenue Per-Share 1.21
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 303.6 B
 Enterprise Value 300.2 B
 Enterprise Multiple 1735.19
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 444.167 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 105.341 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA ARM: 1735.19
high: 462.704
mean: 48.849
median: 8.516
low: -178.78
 EV/R 232.884
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.297
 Asset To Liability 4.363
 Debt To Capital 0.051
 Debt To Assets 0.041
Debt To Assets QoQ -2.951 %
Debt To Assets YoY -1.684 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.475
mean: 0.12
median: 0.105
ARM: 0.041
low: 0.006
 Debt To Equity 0.054
Debt To Equity QoQ -2.502 %
Debt To Equity YoY -4.849 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.671
mean: 0.199
median: 0.153
ARM: 0.054
low: 0.006
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 35.181
Price To Book QoQ 75.516 %
Price To Book YoY 64.842 %
Price To Book IPRWA ARM: 35.181
high: 24.581
mean: 10.051
median: 1.672
low: 0.566
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 634.078
Price To Earnings QoQ 143.737 %
Price To Earnings YoY 54.335 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA ARM: 634.078
high: 304.104
mean: 113.275
median: 96.258
low: 38.485
 PE/G Ratio -25.363
 Price To Sales (P/S) 235.541
Price To Sales QoQ 111.308 %
Price To Sales YoY 65.853 %
Price To Sales IPRWA ARM: 235.541
high: 88.602
mean: 32.022
median: 8.466
low: 2.348
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 367.889
Forward PE/G -14.716
Forward P/S 311.558
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 5.762
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.118
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -17.523 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 2.445 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.217
median: 0.141
mean: 0.138
ARM: 0.118
low: 0.016
 Receivables Turnover 1.066
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -18.318 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 22.564 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.9
median: 3.181
mean: 2.703
low: 1.192
ARM: 1.066
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 85.622
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 85.622
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 247.361
ARM: 85.622
mean: 58.599
median: 23.144
low: -31.676
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.251
 CapEx To Revenue -0.161
 CapEx To Depreciation -2.773
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 8.6 B
 Net Invested Capital 8.6 B
 Invested Capital 8.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 6.8 B
 Net Working Capital 5.1 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 3.221
 Current Ratio 5.252
Current Ratio QoQ -12.413 %
Current Ratio YoY 5.281 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 7.069
ARM: 5.252
mean: 2.724
median: 2.458
low: 0.557
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 2.682
 Cost Of Debt 0.0 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 9800.0
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -77.727 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -14.035 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA ARM: 9800.0
high: 139.399
mean: 35.565
median: 14.054
low: -32.578
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.436
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 4.606 %
 Revenue Growth -13.49 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -167.558 %
Revenue Growth YoY -10.951 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 25.982 %
mean: 14.291 %
median: 12.016 %
low: -2.905 %
ARM: -13.49 %
 Earnings Growth -25.0 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -163.235 %
Earnings Growth YoY -31.251 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 48.0 %
median: 23.496 %
mean: 20.918 %
low: -2.959 %
ARM: -25.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 97.207 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.659 %
Gross Margin YoY 0.058 %
Gross Margin IPRWA ARM: 97.207 %
high: 74.934 %
mean: 68.422 %
median: 67.721 %
low: 25.243 %
 EBIT Margin 7.603 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -74.253 %
EBIT Margin YoY -29.771 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 85.775 %
mean: 63.348 %
median: 60.344 %
ARM: 7.603 %
low: -43.145 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 7.603 %
Return On Sales QoQ -74.253 %
Return On Sales YoY -29.771 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 65.596 %
median: 60.344 %
mean: 57.402 %
ARM: 7.603 %
low: -67.363 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 694.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.229 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 124.51 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 100.877 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 2.672 %
median: 2.672 %
mean: 1.873 %
ARM: 0.229 %
low: -3.044 %
 Free Cash Growth 308.235 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -5172.157 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -6264.7 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA ARM: 308.235 %
high: 176.013 %
mean: 6.643 %
median: -17.251 %
low: -104.532 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.57
 Cash Flow Margin 40.807 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.948
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 2.466 %
Return On Assets QoQ -17.745 %
Return On Assets YoY 73.784 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.835 %
median: 7.835 %
mean: 7.036 %
ARM: 2.466 %
low: -5.696 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 0.981 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.031
Return On Equity QoQ -17.156 %
Return On Equity YoY 68.679 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.298
mean: 0.153
median: 0.11
ARM: 0.031
low: -0.176
 DuPont ROE 3.192 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 0.681 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -80.289 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -53.002 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.639 %
median: 8.473 %
mean: 7.773 %
ARM: 0.681 %
low: -6.171 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect elevated intraday and weekly volatility given high betas and above‑band price placement. Short‑term momentum signals (MACD crossover, DI+ recovery, recovering RSI) favor a tactical upside attempt, but ADX under 20 and a rising MRO warn that any advance could meet mean‑reversion pressure. Liquidity strength and a solid cash position reduce downside tail risk from an operational perspective, yet stretched multiples and deteriorating free‑cash‑growth increase sensitivity to macro or partner‑execution news. Monitor confirmation of momentum (sustained MACD above its signal and rising ADX) before assigning higher conviction to trend continuation; absence of that confirmation raises the probability of a corrective range trade over the next six weeks.

About Arm Holdings plc

Arm Holdings plc (NASDAQ:ARM) engages in the design and development of semiconductor and software technologies, primarily focusing on central processing unit (CPU) architectures. Founded in 1990 and based in Cambridge, UK, Arm licenses its advanced microprocessor designs to a broad spectrum of semiconductor companies and original equipment manufacturers. These designs serve as the foundation for a wide range of products across various sectors, including automotive, consumer electronics, and computing infrastructure. Arm’s portfolio encompasses microprocessors, graphics processing units (GPUs), and system intellectual property (IP), which are critical components in numerous applications. The company’s offerings extend to system IP products, such as memory controllers and interconnect technologies, enabling partners to develop innovative, efficient, and high-performing solutions. With a global footprint that includes significant operations in the United States, China, Taiwan, and South Korea, Arm Holdings plays a vital role in driving technological progress. As a subsidiary of Kronos II LLC, Arm remains dedicated to advancing the future of computing by providing state-of-the-art solutions that enhance performance, efficiency, and connectivity in the digital world.



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