LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE:LYB) Enters Near-Term Consolidation Despite Strong YoY Margins

LyondellBasell approaches a consolidation phase after operational gains and an EPS beat; WMDST values the stock as over-valued. Near-term momentum indicators point to waning upside while fundamentals show margin recovery alongside cash-flow pressure.

Recent News

On July 7, 2026 the company announced an innovative flexible-packaging solution developed in collaboration with major packaging and consumer-goods partners, emphasizing product development and market applications. A July 2026 corporate release and filings confirm routine investor events tied to second-quarter results and related disclosures.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators: ADX at 19.91 indicates no established trend; DI+ shows a peak & reversal while DI- shows a dip & reversal, which together signal bearish directional pressure without a strong trend — consistent with consolidation risk against WMDST’s over-valued assessment.

MACD: MACD registers 0.79 with a peak & reversal and sits below its signal line (0.94), indicating bearish momentum and the absence of a bullish MACD crossover to support sustained upside.

MRO: MRO at 26.42 with a peak & reversal signals the price sits above the model target and faces mean-reversion pressure; this reinforces a near-term bias toward price moderation relative to the current valuation.

RSI: RSI 51.71 with a peak & reversal reads as neutral momentum that recently rolled over, reducing the likelihood of immediate bullish follow-through and supporting a consolidation outlook.

Price structure and averages: The close at $64.51 sits marginally below the 20-day average ($64.78) and above the 50-day ($61.04) and 200-day ($60.06) averages; the 12-day EMA shows a peak & reversal. Bollinger bands place the price comfortably between the 1x-band bounds ($62.87–$66.69), and the super-trend upper at $67.06 marks nearby resistance. These signals point to range-bound trading with resistance near the high-$60s and support in the low-$60s.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: EBIT of $275.0M and EBITDA of $617.0M produce an EBIT margin of 3.82%, down 28.10% QoQ but up 76.74% YoY; this EBIT margin sits above the industry peer mean (-0.66%) and above the industry peer median (-5.05%), indicating stronger operating profitability versus the peer central tendency despite the recent QoQ compression. Gross margin stands at 9.74%, up 36.21% YoY, supporting the improved year-over-year margin profile.

Earnings and per-share metrics: Reported EPS of $4.30 exceeded the estimate of $3.42 by $0.88, a 25.73% beat; forward EPS sits near $1.60, producing a forward P/E of 37.89 while the trailing P/E reads 137.58. The trailing P/E lies outside the industry peer range (industry peer high ~54.87), indicating the trailing multiple sits well above typical peer levels.

Balance sheet and cash flow: Total revenue $7.197B with net income $123.0M, operating cash flow negative $269.0M and free cash flow negative $538.0M. Cash and short-term investments total $2.635B against net debt of $10.286B. Free cash flow yield registers negative (~-2.47%) and dividend payout ratio sits at 182.11% with a dividend yield near 1.03%, reflecting a disconnect between cash generation and cash returned to shareholders.

Leverage and returns: Debt-to-assets at 41.97% and debt-to-equity at 141.95% with debt-to-EBITDA about 23.10 indicate elevated leverage relative to operating cash generation. Return on equity near 1.23% and return on invested capital roughly 0.72% remain low, even as YoY improvements in margins and earnings occurred; earnings growth displays a negative multi-year trend but showed positive QoQ and YoY inflections in recent periods.

Valuation stance: WMDST values the stock as over-valued given the combination of a trailing P/E materially above the industry peer high, negative free cash flow, and elevated leverage that contrasts with improving YoY margins and an EPS beat. Enterprise multiple registers high relative to internal valuation metrics, reinforcing the WMDST over-valued designation.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-07-31
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-10-30
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 3.4 B
 Operating Cash Flow -269.00 M
 Capital Expenditures -269.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -602.00 M
 Dividends Paid -224.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta -810.00 M
 End Period Cash Flow 2.6 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 7.2 B
 Forward Revenue 7.5 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 6.5 B
 Depreciation 342.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 342.0 M
 Research and Development 36.0 M
 Total Operating Expenses 6.9 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 701.0 M
 EBITDA 617.0 M
 EBIT 275.0 M
 Operating Income 254.0 M
 Interest Income 31.0 M
 Interest Expense 138.0 M
 Net Interest Income -107.00 M
 Income Before Tax 137.0 M
 Tax Provision -2.00 M
 Tax Rate 40.0 %
 Net Income 123.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 125.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 3.42
 EPS Actual 4.30
 EPS Difference 0.88
 EPS Surprise 25.731 %
 Forward EPS 1.60
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 34.0 B
 Intangible Assets 1.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets 8.9 B
 Total Current Assets 11.1 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 2.6 B
 Cash 2.6 B
 Net Receivables 3.0 B
 Inventory 3.6 B
 Long-Term Investments 639.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 2.9 B
 Short-Term Debt 1.7 B
 Total Current Liabilities 7.2 B
 Net Debt 10.3 B
 Total Debt 14.3 B
 Total Liabilities 23.8 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 10.0 B
 Retained Earnings 6.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 31.11
 Shares Outstanding 322.770 M
 Revenue Per-Share 22.30
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 21.8 B
 Enterprise Value 33.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 54.095
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -23.404 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -19.226 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 194.687
median: 117.885
mean: 100.702
LYB: 54.095
low: 10.334
 EV/R 4.638
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.382
 Asset To Liability 1.427
 Debt To Capital 0.587
 Debt To Assets 0.42
Debt To Assets QoQ -2.488 %
Debt To Assets YoY 16.616 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.892
mean: 0.42
LYB: 0.42
median: 0.326
low: 0.003
 Debt To Equity 1.42
Debt To Equity QoQ -2.21 %
Debt To Equity YoY 36.852 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.687
LYB: 1.42
mean: 1.057
median: 0.751
low: 0.004
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.167
Price To Book QoQ 42.889 %
Price To Book YoY 20.538 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 3.021
LYB: 2.167
median: 1.608
mean: 1.301
low: -0.199
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 137.581
Price To Earnings QoQ -175.343 %
Price To Earnings YoY -33.207 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA LYB: 137.581
high: 54.874
mean: -63.754
median: -81.887
low: -157.884
 PE/G Ratio -0.477
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.023
Price To Sales QoQ 40.198 %
Price To Sales YoY 5.735 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 7.245
median: 5.182
mean: 3.464
LYB: 3.023
low: 0.203
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 37.892
Forward PE/G -0.131
Forward P/S 2.84
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -1906.542
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.212
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.243 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -2.148 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.282
LYB: 0.212
mean: 0.165
median: 0.134
low: 0.088
 Receivables Turnover 2.692
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.581 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 17.123 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 4.196
LYB: 2.692
mean: 2.295
median: 2.012
low: 1.622
 Inventory Turnover 1.812
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 6.534 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 21.901 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.87
LYB: 1.812
median: 1.526
mean: 1.434
low: 0.443
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 33.891
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 44.534
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -8.879 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -12.914 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 190.998
median: 79.447
mean: 71.188
LYB: 44.534
low: -4.195
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.86
 CapEx To Revenue -0.037
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.787
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 21.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 23.0 B
 Invested Capital 23.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets 8.9 B
 Net Working Capital 3.9 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.367
 Current Ratio 1.538
Current Ratio QoQ -13.25 %
Current Ratio YoY -15.808 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.65
median: 2.17
mean: 1.919
LYB: 1.538
low: 0.71
 Quick Ratio 1.033
Quick Ratio QoQ -13.722 %
Quick Ratio YoY -0.431 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 3.574
median: 1.559
mean: 1.271
LYB: 1.033
low: 0.404
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 23.099
 Cost Of Debt 0.573 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 1.993
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -2730.346 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 28.448 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 17.093
LYB: 1.993
mean: -0.799
low: -2.393
median: -2.393
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.008
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 37.764
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.549
 Dividend Payout Ratio 1.821
 Dividend Rate 0.69
 Dividend Yield 0.01
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.132 %
 Revenue Growth 1.495 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -118.163 %
Revenue Growth YoY -107.801 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 21.874 %
median: 4.698 %
mean: 2.852 %
LYB: 1.495 %
low: -5.378 %
 Earnings Growth -288.462 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 218.342 %
Earnings Growth YoY 415.111 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 8.333 %
median: -48.438 %
mean: -64.0 %
low: -130.394 %
LYB: -288.462 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 9.74 %
Gross Margin QoQ 106.181 %
Gross Margin YoY 36.205 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 32.665 %
LYB: 9.74 %
mean: 7.154 %
low: 4.223 %
median: 4.223 %
 EBIT Margin 3.821 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -2809.929 %
EBIT Margin YoY 76.735 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 28.434 %
LYB: 3.821 %
mean: -0.663 %
median: -5.053 %
low: -6.711 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 3.529 %
Return On Sales QoQ -452.547 %
Return On Sales YoY 63.228 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 28.321 %
LYB: 3.529 %
mean: -2.904 %
low: -5.807 %
median: -5.807 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -538.00 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -2.472 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -135.764 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -48.905 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 13.526 %
median: -2.205 %
LYB: -2.472 %
mean: -2.843 %
low: -14.09 %
 Free Cash Growth -150.899 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -281.393 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -13.903 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 236.5 %
mean: -135.408 %
median: -135.72 %
LYB: -150.899 %
low: -578.947 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -4.374
 Cash Flow Margin -0.764 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.447
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.362 %
Return On Assets QoQ -186.396 %
Return On Assets YoY -26.572 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 1.833 %
LYB: 0.362 %
mean: -0.478 %
median: -0.852 %
low: -1.678 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.027 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.012
Return On Equity QoQ -187.003 %
Return On Equity YoY -14.515 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.055
LYB: 0.012
median: -0.02
mean: -0.032
low: -0.092
 DuPont ROE 1.223 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 0.719 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -1853.659 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 69.176 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 2.851 %
LYB: 0.719 %
mean: -0.177 %
median: -0.784 %
low: -1.114 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect range-bound behavior with bias toward consolidation: technical indicators (MACD, MRO, RSI peak & reversals and DI readings) favor moderation from recent levels, and near-term resistance clusters in the high-$60s while support appears in the low-$60s. Fundamentals supply mixed signals — strong YoY margin improvement and an EPS beat counterbalanced by negative operating and free cash flow and heavy leverage — which supports a sideways trading environment with episodic downside risk should cash-flow metrics fail to stabilize.

About LyondellBasell Industries N.V.

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE:LYB) manufactures and markets a diverse range of chemical products across the globe. Operating through six key segments—Olefins and Polyolefins Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; Refining; and Technology—the company delivers essential materials for various industries. LyondellBasell produces olefins, co-products, polyethylene, and polypropylene, alongside propylene oxide, derivatives, and oxyfuels. Its portfolio includes intermediate chemicals like styrene monomer, acetyls, ethylene oxide, and ethylene glycol. Additionally, the company creates and distributes compounding solutions such as polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, and advanced polymers. In the refining sector, LyondellBasell processes heavy, high-sulfur crude oil to produce gasoline and distillates. The company also develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies and manufactures polyolefin catalysts. Serving industries such as food packaging, home furnishings, automotive, and paints and coatings, LyondellBasell maintains its headquarters in Houston, Texas, since its incorporation in 2009.



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