Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NYSE:NGVC) Signals Modest Recovery Despite Margin Compression

Natural Grocers presents a mix of operational resilience and margin pressure: core gross margins and cash generation support a valuation gap, while compressing EBIT margins and leverage constrain upside near term.

Recent News

On August 6, 2026 the company published third-quarter fiscal 2026 results for the period ended June 30, 2026. On July 22, 2026 Natural Grocers marked its 71st anniversary with a $71,000 product donation to the Food Bank of the Rockies. The company opened a new store in McMinnville, Oregon on July 1, 2026, and in early June 2026 ran seasonal promotional activity while the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 19.79 registers as no trend, which suggests limited directional conviction; within that context short-term momentum indicators should drive price swings.

DI+ shows a dip-and-reversal, a bullish directional signal; DI− sits at 28.46 and is decreasing, which also aligns with a reduction in downside pressure and supports the possibility of a short-term bullish tilt.

MACD reads −0.84 with a dip-and-reversal and the signal line at −0.78, indicating developing bullish momentum although the MACD remains slightly below the signal line, so momentum recovery remains immature.

MRO stands at −37.2 and is decreasing, which indicates the market price sits below the implied technical target and implies pronounced upside potential relative to that target while the oscillator grows more negative.

RSI sits at 48.24 and is decreasing, signaling neutral momentum with a slight bias toward near-term weakness unless momentum indicators stabilize.

Price relationships show the close at $27.85 below the 12-day EMA ($28.19) and 26-day EMA ($29.08), while trading just above the 20-day average ($27.66); this places the stock in a lower-momentum environment inside a tight recent range bounded by the 20–50 day averages.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $334,739,000; revenue growth year-over-year stands at −62.83% and quarter-over-quarter at −246.17%, indicating a sharp contraction on the reported measures. Gross profit equals $98,008,000 and gross margin measures 29.28%, which ranks above the industry peer mean of 21.49% and supports higher relative price-to-book and price multiples.

EBIT reached $14,996,000 with an EBIT margin of 4.48%, modestly above the industry peer mean of 4.34% and the industry peer median of 4.42%; however EBIT margin contracted QoQ by −16.51% and YoY by −5.53%, which reduces near-term operating leverage.

Net income stands at $11,073,000 and EPS came in at $0.48 versus an estimate of $0.52, yielding an EPS surprise of −7.69%, a modest miss that trimmed short-term expectations but did not materially alter cash generation metrics.

Cash and short-term investments total $17,467,000 with operating cash flow of $11,258,000 and free cash flow of $1,244,000; free cash flow yield equals 0.175%, above the industry peer mean of 0.081%, yet free cash flow declined QoQ by −43.55% and YoY by −139.77% on the reported measures.

Balance sheet and leverage show total debt of $322,680,000, debt-to-equity of 1.3478 (above the industry peer mean of 0.6355) and debt-to-EBITDA at 13.83, reflecting material leverage relative to current EBITDA that increases sensitivity to earnings swings despite an interest coverage ratio of 22.62.

Return metrics remain modest: return on equity at 4.63% trails the industry peer mean of 6.09%, while return on invested capital at 4.81% slightly exceeds the industry peer mean of 4.56%, indicating capital deployment returns close to peer averages but lagging where equity returns matter most.

Valuation context: price-to-book at 2.96 sits well below the industry peer mean of 11.05, while P/E near 64 and forward P/E near 50 reflect premium expectations on modest absolute earnings; enterprise multiple stands at 43.49 versus an industry peer mean enterprise multiple of 96.94. The current valuation as determined by WMDST: under-valued.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-08-06
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-11-05
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 20.7 M
 Operating Cash Flow 11.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -10.01 M
 Change In Working Capital -10.47 M
 Dividends Paid -3.46 M
 Cash Flow Delta -3.26 M
 End Period Cash Flow 17.5 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 334.7 M
 Forward Revenue 100.6 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 236.7 M
 Depreciation 8.3 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 8.3 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 318.5 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 98.0 M
 EBITDA 23.3 M
 EBIT 15.0 M
 Operating Income 16.3 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 663.0 K
 Net Interest Income -663.00 K
 Income Before Tax 14.3 M
 Tax Provision 3.3 M
 Tax Rate 22.745 %
 Net Income 11.1 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 11.1 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.52
 EPS Actual 0.48
 EPS Difference -0.04
 EPS Surprise -7.692 %
 Forward EPS 0.58
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 687.7 M
 Intangible Assets 15.9 M
 Net Tangible Assets 223.5 M
 Total Current Assets 174.1 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 17.5 M
 Cash 17.5 M
 Net Receivables 10.6 M
 Inventory 135.3 M
 Long-Term Investments 1.0 K
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 89.7 M
 Short-Term Debt 58.0 K
 Total Current Liabilities 158.2 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 322.7 M
 Total Liabilities 448.3 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 239.4 M
 Retained Earnings 174.8 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 10.39
 Shares Outstanding 23.046 M
 Revenue Per-Share 14.52
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 709.2 M
 Enterprise Value 1.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 43.486
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 23.415 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -19.234 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 120.675
mean: 96.94
median: 92.022
NGVC: 43.486
low: 23.771
 EV/R 3.031
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.872
 Asset To Liability 1.534
 Debt To Capital 0.574
 Debt To Assets 0.469
Debt To Assets QoQ -0.998 %
Debt To Assets YoY -7.566 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.504
NGVC: 0.469
median: 0.256
mean: 0.22
low: 0.054
 Debt To Equity 1.348
Debt To Equity QoQ -4.107 %
Debt To Equity YoY -18.416 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.742
NGVC: 1.348
median: 0.786
mean: 0.635
low: 0.083
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.962
Price To Book QoQ 10.081 %
Price To Book YoY -36.594 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 13.2
mean: 11.054
median: 10.71
NGVC: 2.962
low: 0.65
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 64.113
Price To Earnings QoQ 37.894 %
Price To Earnings YoY -10.498 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 192.252
median: 192.252
mean: 182.224
NGVC: 64.113
low: 33.582
 PE/G Ratio -3.719
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.119
Price To Sales QoQ 15.043 %
Price To Sales YoY -26.387 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 9.324
median: 5.684
mean: 5.641
NGVC: 2.119
low: 0.09
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 50.32
Forward PE/G -2.919
Forward P/S 7.051
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 21.97
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.488
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.164 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -1.786 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.92
mean: 0.686
median: 0.619
low: 0.493
NGVC: 0.488
 Receivables Turnover 28.235
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -3.569 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 8.484 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 36.105
NGVC: 28.235
mean: 17.085
median: 16.282
low: 2.901
 Inventory Turnover 1.787
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.052 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -3.304 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 8.548
mean: 2.685
median: 2.192
low: 1.957
NGVC: 1.787
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 3.232
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 19.869
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 2.939 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 9.668 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 45.255
NGVC: 19.869
median: 4.17
mean: 3.212
low: -14.795
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 21.057
 CapEx To Revenue -0.03
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.202
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 240.8 M
 Net Invested Capital 240.9 M
 Invested Capital 240.9 M
 Net Tangible Assets 223.5 M
 Net Working Capital 15.9 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.11
 Current Ratio 1.1
Current Ratio QoQ 4.837 %
Current Ratio YoY 8.305 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.21
NGVC: 1.1
mean: 0.878
low: 0.771
median: 0.771
 Quick Ratio 0.245
Quick Ratio QoQ -2.437 %
Quick Ratio YoY 17.197 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.753
mean: 0.36
NGVC: 0.245
low: 0.225
median: 0.225
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 13.832
 Cost Of Debt 0.158 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 22.618
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -21.045 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 0.707 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 92.812
mean: 34.276
NGVC: 22.618
median: 11.226
low: 2.429
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.103
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 34.823
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 3.204
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.312
 Dividend Rate 0.15
 Dividend Yield 0.005
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.436 %
 Revenue Growth -0.782 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -246.168 %
Revenue Growth YoY -62.833 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 32.818 %
NGVC: -0.782 %
mean: -2.655 %
median: -6.769 %
low: -10.667 %
 Earnings Growth -17.241 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -193.869 %
Earnings Growth YoY
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 95.0 %
mean: -6.415 %
median: -10.811 %
NGVC: -17.241 %
low: -20.988 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 29.279 %
Gross Margin QoQ -3.576 %
Gross Margin YoY -2.074 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 40.584 %
NGVC: 29.279 %
median: 25.144 %
mean: 21.486 %
low: 5.962 %
 EBIT Margin 4.48 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -16.511 %
EBIT Margin YoY -5.525 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 9.167 %
NGVC: 4.48 %
median: 4.415 %
mean: 4.338 %
low: 0.753 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 4.865 %
Return On Sales QoQ -12.437 %
Return On Sales YoY 2.443 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 10.059 %
NGVC: 4.865 %
median: 4.215 %
mean: 4.147 %
low: 0.533 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.2 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.175 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -43.548 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -139.773 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 2.58 %
NGVC: 0.175 %
mean: 0.081 %
median: -0.193 %
low: -2.985 %
 Free Cash Growth -35.343 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -57.58 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -69.3 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 173.63 %
NGVC: -35.343 %
mean: -78.487 %
median: -131.912 %
low: -502.391 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.112
 Cash Flow Margin 4.871 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.473
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.614 %
Return On Assets QoQ -18.69 %
Return On Assets YoY -7.982 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.082 %
mean: 2.061 %
median: 1.856 %
NGVC: 1.614 %
low: 0.677 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.832 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.046
Return On Equity QoQ -20.505 %
Return On Equity YoY -19.299 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.14
mean: 0.061
median: 0.057
NGVC: 0.046
low: 0.015
 DuPont ROE 4.709 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 4.81 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -19.713 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -19.807 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.629 %
NGVC: 4.81 %
mean: 4.555 %
median: 4.134 %
low: 1.347 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect range-bound action with a slight upside bias if momentum indicators continue their nascent recovery. A persistent MACD improvement and stabilization of RSI above the mid-40s would support momentum-driven gains; absent that, the low ADX implies sideways behavior around the $27–$31 band defined by short- and medium-term averages. Leverage and compressed QoQ EBIT margins will limit sustained advance until operating margin compression shows sequential improvement or free cash flow stabilizes.

About Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NYSE:NGVC) retails a comprehensive range of natural and organic groceries and dietary supplements across the United States. The company’s stores present an array of organic produce, alongside private label repackaged bulk items such as dried fruits, nuts, grains, granolas, teas, herbs, and spices. Customers find a selection of private label products including grocery staples, household items, bulk foods, and an assortment of vitamins and dietary supplements. The stores also feature organic eggs, flavored coffee, and mustard, as well as dry, frozen, and canned groceries. Meat, seafood, dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs further enhance the offerings. Natural Grocers also provides prepared foods, bread, baked goods, beverages, and alcoholic products like beer, wine, and hard cider. Additionally, the stores carry name-brand and private label supplements, body care products, pet care items, books, and household merchandise. The company operates under the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark and offers nutrition education programs to support informed health decisions. Established in 1955, Natural Grocers is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.



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